Would natural gas hybrid cars cost too much?

Would scale enable natural gas hybrids to compete with gasoline hybrids?

Natural gas cars too expensive without hybrid technology?

Or is it just a matter of scale?

I watch a lot of financial news, but my viewing habits have little to do with investing, although I am interested in the concept of green investing — for that day I actually have some extra cash. It’s just that typically financial news is less focused on pop culture and politics. The info is just more useful.

Anyway, as gasoline prices have pushed higher in recent weeks, there has been more and more talk regarding natural gas in the financial news.

That has me again wondering about the costs of natural gas hybrids.

Until the Iran issue is resolved, the only place for gasoline prices to go is higher according to the consensus, and few expect an easy resolution. In fact, $5.00 gasoline is becoming a regular conversation. This might be as low as gasoline prices go for some time — maybe ever.

Many in the financial community believe this will bring more attention to natural gas. For instance, yesterday I heard that at today’s prices a natural gas fill up would cost $1.62 per gallon gasoline equivalent.

At first that number sounds great, but then there’s the extra price of natural gas vehicles. Honda’s natural gas Civic, for instance, is considerably more expensive than the Civic hybrid. Mating these two technologies would certainly create sticker shock at today’s prices, even if natural gas only cost $1.00 per gallon equivalent.

Yet, are the extra costs of natural gas vehicles mostly just about scale?

In the past of I’ve met some journalists and auto executives from Argentina, one of the leaders in the natural gas car movement, and they believe one hundred percent that natural gas can compete with gasoline or diesel. In fact, some have suggested that with scale, they’d out-compete gasoline cars.

Of course, natural gas as a fuel isn’t going to last forever.

But, say that natural gas vehicles had to be hybrid vehicles, except for large trucks, so that the only premium — assisted, unfortunately, with tax incentives — would be the hybrid premium. Thus, not only would their be the long term hybrid advantage, but also cheaper fuel, to lure consumers to the advantages of hybrids.

Giving people more incentives to buy hybrids — including plug-in and range extended ones — that use natural gas could be an interesting win/win. It replaces foreign oil with natural gas and it keeps battery development moving forward.

Once again, it seems to me that believing the battery should be today’s only focus simply isn’t supported by logic. In the interim, fossil fuels make more sense. However, a pure focus on fossil fuels is even more dangerous than focusing solely on batteries. It simply has to be recognized that fossil fuels are dead, and a smart, efficient transition from them needs to be begin ASAP. But we’re talking a multi-decade effort – a major US energy policy that probably has to transcend politics. LOL.

Blah. Blah. Blah.

Nevertheless, if natural gas hybrids could ultimately be sold at the same price as today’s hybrids, that could be a pretty significant bridge to the future.

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