What’s wrong with the Nissan Leaf?
Time to turn a new Leaf on plug-in sales
Is the Leaf Carlos Ghosn’s biggest mistake?
Happy Fourth of July. Wasn’t going to post anything today, but then I saw the sale’s numbers for the Nissan Leaf. Just 535 Leaf electric cars were sold last month, down from 1,708 last June.
What is going on with Nissan’s plug-in plans? What’s wrong with the Nissan Leaf?
Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is easily the biggest EV bull in the major automaker room. And in recent months not only has Ghosn confirmed that he still believes that the Leaf will top 20,000 sales in 2012, but that plug-ins will achieve 10 percent penetration by 2020.
Additionally, over the last several months Nissan has pointed to the earthquake/tsunami, the yen versus the dollar, and the need for US Leaf production as reasons for the Leaf sales slowdown. The point, it seems, is that things are under control at Nissan. Just be patient.
Since there is supposedly still a healthy supply of Leaf back orders, maybe 20,000 Leaf sales this year is possible, but it’s getting harder and harder to believe that story.
The 10 percent by 2020 story; however, appears to be a fable. Recently, Pike Research pegged 2020 plug-in penetration at less than 2 percent. Agree or disagree, but part of the equation for that number was based on the now very “measured” production plans from automakers themselves.
Sure, just like that a sudden and spectacular rise in gas prices, or a completely unexpected battery breakthrough, could rewrite this book. With the war games Iran is playing right now, coupled with the rest of the Middle East tensions, the oil spike potential is a little scary.
Yet, even if both events happened, I’m still not sure I buy 10 percent by 2020.
Then again, Ghosn can always claim he was only forecasting Nissan sales, not making industry-wide predictions. Considering the success Toyota is having with hybrid cars, such a Nissan-only forecast might be conceivable.
Still, 535.
Couple that low sales number with the fact that Carlos Ghosn is now on a path to exit Nissan, at least as CEO, and there’s plenty of speculation fodder. For now though, I’ll just leave it there.
Anyway, in my opinion, this has become the story in the plug-in space. While a lack of plug-in success probably isn’t a surprise to many other than hardcore advocates, Nissan’s EV bullishness was a big beacon in this space. And if Nissan falls considerably short of its 20,000 sale’s goal, phrases like ‘EV bubble’ are inevitable.
Of course, like the dot com bubble, plug-ins — just as the Internet — will have the last laugh. Unfortunately, it might be another decade before we even hear a giggle.
The age of my second car fed into my decision too….
My other car is a 2004. It is starting to reach the point where it shouldn’t go on long trips any more.
I needed the Volt to be able to take long trips or I would have needed to purchase another new vehicle for that purpose..
@Doug – thank you! I am now (hopefully)a little less ignorant !
LarryG
In that case you would get no more than 70 to 75 miles. Behind the miles
left is 12 power bars, that is a better indicator of your power left, as you lose
power you lose bars. I use that more than the miles left.
@Doug.
thanks for the info.
what is the worse case scenario if you turn on the heat/air and go on the interstate?
do you actually get a 100 mile range if fully charged?
Of that 100 miles (or less) how much do you lose with heat/air/interstate/other worst case?
thanks
LarryG
I have never lost 20 to 30 miles just backing out the driveway, and my driveway is 300 feet long. If you turn on the heat or air you will lose 5 to 6 miles because the car is guessing you will leave it on the whole trip. If you start driving like a lead foot and do not use eco mode, that will reduce your miles, the car figures your going to drive that way the whole trip. Interstate driving, because of more power needed to push you threw the air will eat up power faster. You have to get used to thinking about your trip. I have a fast charger within 6 miles of my house it will charge me from empty to 80 percent in 25 minutes, my home charger takes about 6 hours to get me from say 30% to 100%. i use my leaf every day and top it off every night no matter how much i use that day, so every morning i have a good 80 miles to use.
Here in tenn its been getting up to 112 degrees this month and my battery heat has been fine also.
I think the main problem with the sales is the price of gas came back down, we are paying $2.95 here. I have not bought gas for 10 months and i love it! Except for the lawn mower that is.
@Doug – what’s the scoop on the criticism that you cannot trust the miles-left-to-go gauge?
I read an account that sounded horrible. The guy said he planned a trip that was “close” on the range but the gauge assured him he had the juice but as soon as he backed out of his driveway the meter subtracted a bunch of miles and he was “short” of range and had to pull back in.
this kind of thing – if true – would kill that car.
some people adapt and are precise enough in how they go about planning; others like to hop in the car on a spur of the moment and head out for an afternoon trip to the mountains or some event.
those people’s lifestyles are not going to get along with a car that can only go a certain number of miles and even then only when fully charged.
question 2. If this is not the problem with Leaf sales what do you think the problem is?
I got my leaf last september, and i have 10k on it now. It has never left me stranded. I know how far it is to work and the stores in my area and i allways start the day out with at least 90 miles, way more than i need most days. i have had no quality issues. Its a fun car to drive very fast on the take off. My wife and i allways take it around town to save gas in her car. It cost me around $27 a month to fuel it. I love it.
I have owned a LEAF since November and have had no issues. I love the car and it does everything I want it to do. We have a second car (most households do) for long trips. I have never had an issue that me and my wife need to take out of town trips on the same day but separately. Those who spout “The car can leave you stranded” obviously do not own the car. I charge up every other day and never have range issues because I know how far the car will go.
I hope the Volt does well too. Anyway to get people to think about electrical drive is a good thing.
I was debating between the Volt and Leaf.
Around town I knew I would always have plenty of range so that was not a key factor.
The two things that clinched my decision to get the Volt were:
- liquid cooling of the battery (I live in Phoenix)
- I wanted to take the vehicle on long road trips
I waited a year for my LEAF, but walked away from it once it finally arrived at the dealer last June. Why?
Range is ridiculously too short. 100 real miles, in the cold with the heater on and on he freeway, and 100 real miles in summer heat with the AC on at 70 mph is a barely usable minimum range.
On top of that, the Nissan preorder process was the worst customer experience I had in 50 years.
Brian, you’re showing a rather rosy picture of the quality of the LEAF that isn’t quite true. You say there are “no quality or reliability issues to talk about”. I’ve followed the LEAF closely for years (reservation #6 in California), and there are plenty of things to talk about. First, and as LarryG mentions most importantly, is the “guess-o-meter”. It’s just simply inaccurate. Couple that with a public already weary of range-anxiety, and you’ve just manufactured yourself a boogeyman.
Less crippling quality issues include:
- ridiculously useless sun visors
- very restricted rear-view angle
- many reported issues of flawed/defective exterior paint
- interior fabric wearing out very quickly
- lord help you if you look “under the hood”: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3400
Top that off with strategic mistakes like passive air cooling for the batteries, 3.3kw charger, selling a polarizingly japanese-styled exterior in US/Eurpoe, lousy execution by Blink on the EVSE.
I applaud Nissan for having some balls (unlike Ford) and really getting behind EV’s. However, to say it has been a smooth ride with no quality issues is just not true.
@ Brian – a REAL owner of a LEAF!
Perhaps I am wrong!
Can you tell us if your LEAF gives you one “miles remaining” number when first gotten into and that number reduces once underway?
That’s what I’ve heard though I’ll admit I’ve never seen it.
If the LEAF delivers reliable “miles remaining” then, in your opinion, what’s the problem with their sales?
Fear. I have put 22k miles on my Nissan LEAF in the 10 months I’ve owned it. It always gets me home.
LarryG exemplifies the baseless fear with; “I’ve heard” then the fear starts. I know that LarryG has not heard of anyone running out of charge unexpectantly, because it doesn’t happen. However, people thrive off the fear, we want it, we propagate, we think it gives us ‘security.’
Truth – the Nisan LEAF is unbelivably reliable. Owners have had no quality or reliability issues to talk about. Most of us, as owners, expected problems just because it is a first-run vehicle but there has been nothing to discuss but the lack of DC quick charging stations and battery performance in extreme climates.
Typo. 695 PIP sales….
So far the answer to the question “is it worth an extra $3000-$5000 to eliminate range anxiety?” is “Yes”.
At the same same time, what has happened to plug-in Prius sales? 659 is less than impressive. Were there supply issues? Perhaps Prius buyers did not feel it was worth the extra $5000 to increase the mileage from 50 mpg to 85 mpg (what most PIP owners are averaging). Standard Prius sales are still very strong.
The Volt’s 1760 is looking a little more impressive now. In June, more Volts were sold than all other plug-ins combined.
The Volt is now the number 2 selling alternative vehicle ( of any type) behind the Prius, having passed Honda. That’s impressive considering the Volt’s high price…..
I think what is wrong is pretty simple. The car can leave you stranded.
You cannot go on an errand and think about adding one more stop without having to worry that the care will strand you.
You cannot arrive home from work and then trust the car to take you to get groceries.
I’ve heard that the “miles remaining” can be one number when you get into the car and then 20,30 miles lost as you back out of the driveway.
It’s one simple word – unreliable – which is a death sentence for any vehicle hybrid or not.