Unbelievable? Plug-in electric cars can make financial sense
A hedge against Middle East turmoil?
Electric car potential needs to be put into the right perspective
In my opinion plug-ins should not be driving US energy policy today, unless — and only — as part of a very comprehensive energy policy where plug-ins and electrification rightly hold their place as THE long term solution, but as secondary today to better interim solutions, such as hybrid cars and alternative fuels like natural gas. By any measure making electric cars the mainstream solution in America within the next couple of decades is still a monumental task, a Herculean, nearly impossible, effort. To be blatantly honest, the plug-in movement has been oversold and under-delivered, and a lot of opportunity is being left on the table.
But that doesn’t mean plug-ins don’t make any sense today. In fact, plug-ins might even make financial sense for some.
For instance, thanks to tax credits the Mitsubishi i electric car can be cost-effective long term, especially in a scenario where one can utilize a home solar installation. But even with just smart charging, many urban drivers could still save a lot of money in fueling costs every year compared to something like the Nissan Versa, a car with one of the cheapest costs of ownership after 5 years.
Yes, it will still take much of the life of the Mitsubishi i to recover its battery-powered premium, but that’s at today’s gasoline prices. By May alone gasoline prices should rise another $.60 cents, a move that happens almost every summer. Likewise, with tensions escalating not only between Israel, Iran and the US, but also in Egypt and Libya as well, $5.00 gasoline isn’t a very speculative idea for either the near term or through the next decade.
But the real advantage of thinking plug-in is in preparation for gasoline spikes, and with events unfolding the way they are in the Middle East, a Mitsubishi i plug-in car — the cheapest plug-in – owner should be able to take advantage of many gasoline spikes in coming years.
Apples to apples, it’s hard to make a strong financial case for electric cars, especially without government incentives. In fact, without fed aid plug-in economics just don’t come close to adding up. With incentives, however, urban drivers might actually save a little money long term at today’s gasoline prices. More compelling, however, electric cars are a very nice potential hedge against future energy prices, particularly gasoline spikes.
And if you’re a seriously hardcore energy independence advocate, those are pretty fair economics and a worthy financial hedge.
While this story can’t be sold to Main Street, it should be compelling enough for anyone truly considering a plug-in. If you’re on the electrified fence, get off it. A plug-in won’t be the wisest financial move you’ll ever make, but it’ll probably be a smarter economic move than you’re expecting — if you’re seriously crunching total lifetime costs of ownership. And while that won’t be enough for mainstreamers, it should be enough for you to put your money where your intentions are, so pull the trigger.
dahc – You’re right, it’s about perspective. But that perspective could be greatly enhanced if those in the RE world got off their asses and started hammering back at the misinformation campaigns of Kock Brothers, Exxon/Mobil, etc. Public perspective, as you know, is being skewed to those who can buy the most airtime. Or politicians.
The long-term advantages, however, can only be touted once the Hard Core anxieties are breached -
1) Range. This is a work in progress, based on battery tech. Although all the studies show the average driver drives less than 40 miles a day, and are primarily urban drivers, and blah, blah, blah, whatever. 300 is THE magic number to reach. Get your range to 300 miles for each full charge and you can bitch slap a lot of naysayers right off.
2) Battery cost vs PPG of gasoline. The long-term argument on this will be settled as the cost of li-on, niMh, jabberwocky batteries go down and the cost of crude oil (and thus, gasoline) goes up. Both subject to the same laws of supply and demand. And from what I’ve read, expect oil to shoot up faster than batteries shoot down.
3) Math. Let’s face it, there’s a lot of stupid people out there. It’s gonna take a lot of hair-pulling to make them understand the offset of paying more for the EV up front against the long-term savings in fuel, maintenance, etc. I figure even insurance rates will be lower than ICE vehicles, due to less physical damage possible in an accident. (less physical damage because of fewer vehicle parts.) Add into it the fact that the manufacturers will charge more to recoup the actual production cost since they won’t be able to rely on follow-up charges on maintenance and vehicle parts.
It will take time to get the masses to understand the long-term ramifications of an EV and RE-based society. But by starting to change perspectives, we can get a leg up on that revolution.
Otherwise, get yer 2×4’s ready and we’ll just whop some heads…