TCO study: Plug-ins will still require gov incentives in 2030 for widespread adoption
Plug-in Prius offers the most cost-effective plug-in architecture
When it comes to batteries, we have to walk before we run
A new UK study on total costs of ownership (TCO) of low carbon cars demonstrates that plug-in vehicles will probably still need government incentives in 2030 to overcome higher TCO’s, and that plug-in hybrids similar to the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid will probably offer the most cost-effective case for plug-in adoption for the next few decades.
Still, through 2030 more efficient ICE engines and non-plug-in hybrid cars offer the most cost-effective path to reducing CO2 emissions.
“By 2030, the TCO premium for plug-in vehicles has decreased to £2,400 (US$3,825) for a PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric vehicle) and £3,000 (US$4,782) for the pure EV (electric vehicle). In 2010, this cost differential is closer to £20,000 ($32,000) for the pure EV, excluding current incentives and OEM discounts,” notes a GreenCarCongress summary.
Some other interesting highlights include the decreasing importance of fuel costs heading into 2030 because of the expectation that ICE vehicles are set to become significantly more fuel efficient over the next few decades. Therefore, barring extreme gasoline spikes — around $18 per/gallon according to the study — rising gasoline prices won’t be enough to offset the higher TCO of plug-ins.
Around 2030, battery costs could decline enough that pure plug-in electrics will begin to provide the best TCO of all plug-ins, at least for short range driving. Also by 2030, it is expected that fuel cell vehicles will offer better TCO for long range driving.
After reading the details of this study, I again find myself asking if the government’s plug-in tax credits are based on logic and cost-effectiveness, or politics and cost-ineffective protectionism?
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Only the rich? I disagree. The $7500 tax break makes the Volt and Prius within reach of a lot more people.
I did a search on cars.com of vehicles listed for between $32,500 and $35,000. Here is a list of some I found….
Chevy Camaro, Honda Accord, Nissan Maxima, Chrysler 300, Dodge Charger, Buick Lucerne, Dodge Durango, Ford F150, Chevy Silverado, Jeep Grand Cherokee, Kia Sedona, Chevy Traverse, Toyota Forerunner, Honda Pilot………
Correct me if I’m wrong, but these vehicles are not just owned by the rich. They are owned by middle class Americans.
No. The $7500 tax break is not just a perk for the rich. It puts the Volt within reach of middle class Americans………..including me.
Can we really afford 20 more years of the Feds stealing money from the working class so that the rich can get a $7,500 welfare check every time they buy an outlandishly expensive car?!