Study – US not on path to 1 million plug-ins by 2015
Electric cars are still limited by battery technologies
Does 1 million plug-ins by 2015 even make sense?
The auto industry, particularly the mainstream auto industry, is largely dependent upon 1 single factor for success: scale. Thus, President Obama’s plan to have 1 million plug-ins on the road by 2015 has some logic. It’s a move dedicated to driving down costs by increasing scale.
Yet a recent report claims that automakers are not on a path to achieve such a goal. Maybe that’s because such a goal just doesn’t make sense?
“The production intentions of automakers are currently insufficient to meet the 2015 goal, and even the current plans for production volume may not be met,” claims a blue ribbon panel from Indiana University according to the DetroitNews.
That begs the question, why aren’t automakers on a path to achieve 1 million plug-ins by 2015 considering that there are enough combined plug-in tax credits amongst the majors to easily hit this number by 2015? Likewise, between now and then Toyota alone might sell 1 million hybrids in the US.
Sadly, because 1 million plug-ins based upon today’s lithium-ion battery technologies is not nearly enough to achieve the kind of scale that will make plug-ins viable seems to be the obvious answer. In fact, volume isn’t really even part of the equation yet according to numerous experts.
Yesterday, in Do tax credits for hybrids and/or plug-ins really make sense?, for example, I referenced GM’s Jon Lauckner stating that volume is not yet critical to scaling down the costs of battery powered vehicles. Unfortunately, as most lithium-ion battery researchers and studies have noted thus far, technological breakthroughs are still required before serious penetration is even possible.
Quite simply, today’s lithium-ion technologies are completely incapable of mainstreaming electrification. Without major technological breakthroughs plug-in cars are guaranteed niche status forever. You can’t just build them and they will come – at least not enough of them to make these vehicles profitable.
Back in the late 90’s rushing into the Internet seemed like the greatest idea ever, until the dot come bubble burst. Despite great intentions, rushing into plug-in vehicles might result in the same kind of bubble. The batteries just aren’t yet up to the task.
It’s almost as if we’re stuck in a rut, just perpetuating the status quo. We don’t know how to think differently.
Dahc,
Unfortunately I think we are right….we’re heading the wrong direction right now. How long it’ll take to change or more importantly, what it’s going to take to make the change is going to be the million dollar question.
The US military is already setting in motion Africom….another extension of this ridiculous imperial bullshit we have to pay for.
This shit never ends….I don’t understand…the people in power….what the hell do they ultimately want out of all of this? What is the point of all of this? Ultimate power? OK…then what? For what?
I couldn’t agree more, Noz. I think the plug-in movement largely fits that bill as well. I love plug-ins. I want one even if it doesn’t come close to achieving cost-effectiveness, but if plug-ins aren’t going to come close to achieving cost-effectiveness for another decade or two, then we need to focus more on what can be done today, right now. Nobody wants to make tough decisions today, we’re a bunch of complacent lazy asses that believe we can just throw a lot of money at any problem and it will work itself out without any hard work.
The legacy effect guarantees that if we built nothing but plug-ins today, it would still take a good 20 years to replace our current fleet. That would mean that even if we started building nothing but plug-ins today, our fleet would still be guzzling tons of oil for more than a decade. Yet, best case scenarios is 10 percent plug-in penetration by 2020. That means we’re guzzling tons of oil until 2040 or 2050 at least.
Maybe it’s just me, but based on the last 2 decades of US oil consumption and the politics, etc that go along with such consumption, our path is unsustainable and the longer we wait to deal with it, the more painful the consequences. Yet, it’s all still status quo and posturing.
As you said, we are in deep shit – hopefully, you and I are just paranoid alarmists! Cuz if we’re right…….well, i’d really rather not be right.
The environmental movement as a whole has been one big failure.
Business is usual is the status quo. The largest environmentally detrimental firms are completely uncaring about changing, money and Wall Street and 3 months profit are more important than even life itself…that’s the level we’ve stooped to.
So it’s completely predictable that the US is not meeting its goals.
Most environmental movements have done nothing for the general cause either. They’re too busy making noise and collecting money for stupid “Call Your Senator” campaigns…no real substance.
I’m not sure what direction this stuff is going to take but we’re making no impact at all on truly changing our consumption and waste. We’re in deep deep shit.