Saving money with a plug-in hybrid conversion

Plug-in conversions: Would converting your Toyota Prius into a plug-in hybrid save money?

A Prius with a Hymotion plug-in hybrid conversion package.

Good for the environment and reducing oil dependence, but your wallet?

I’m going to use this to save money on my campaign. I’m running for Arapahoe County Clerk and Recorder in November,” Ray Flesher recently told Denver 7 news about his recently converted plug-in Toyota Prius.

But is his plug-in hybrid conversion really saving money?

The Hymotion plug-in hybrid kit for Mr. Flesher’s Toyota Prius cost $10,000, but tax credits in Colorado can reduce those costs by as much as $6000. Likewise, the plug-in conversion kit increased Mr. Flesher’s fuel economy from a high of 52 mpg to 97 mpg.

So, is Mr. Flesher saving money if his conversion only cost $4000?

At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver spends about $800 per year on gas according to the government.  Doubling fuel economy should roughly half those fuel costs, plus there’s the extra savings in electricity versus gasoline. So let’s say fueling costs drop to just $300 per year – saving $500 per year. Wouldn’t that mean it would take 8 years to recover the costs of this conversion?

What about installation costs to have a third party install the Hymotion kit? Are they included?

Nevertheless, tax credits can’t last forever. Unfortunately, even if scale brings down costs by 60 percent – roughly about what battery experts claim should happen with manufacturing improvements over time – what percentage of consumers would be willing to pay for 8 years of gasoline up front so that they could start saving  money – as much as $500 per year – in 9 years?

Most consumers, I’d bet, might question whether the batteries will even last that long, or function as efficiently over the years. Sadly, for instance, after more than a decade of solid battery performance in more than 2.5 million Toyota hybrid cars, many consumers still believe the batteries regularly need to be replaced.

OK. It’s Friday. I didn’t sleep well last, so maybe I make a mistake with my calculations, but it seems pretty obvious to me that, even with massive tax credits, it’s still almost impossible to cost-effectively justify a plug-in conversion. So, where did I go wrong?