Save America: Hybrids and natural gas now
Time to take action?
Hybrids and natural gas today, plug-ins tomorrow
A new study on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment demonstrates that hybrid cars and natural gas vehicles offer significant potential to reduce CO2 emissions that “can be put to use immediately”.
So, why are we putting off until tomorrow what can already be accomplished today?
For urban drivers, hybrid vehicles offer the cleanest solution, while natural gas vehicles offer the best solution for rural and highway driving according to the study. In mixed driving conditions, both natural gas and hybrid vehicles offer 25 percent improvements compared to gasoline and diesel vehicles.
Why then, have plug-ins become the only solution deserving of the majority of media and government focus?
Certainly plug-ins are extremely important, but essentially every study suggests that converting to a majority of plug-in vehicles is almost assuredly going to take a few decades, minimally. Consequently, why not use a mixture of hybrids and natural gas vehicles as interim solutions to plug-ins and fuel cell vehicles? Besides, it might make more sense to eventually switch from coal to natural gas backed renewables anyway.
Even more compelling, since most plug-in studies suggest that over the next few decades plug-in hybrids will dominate pure electric vehicles in sales, why not take advantage of hybrid technology as quickly as possible?
For instance, any full hybrids sold today could eventually be converted into plug-in hybrids tomorrow if a breakthrough in battery technology becomes mainstream viable. And since the legacy effect of older technologies can rear its ugly head on emissions and US fleet fuel economy for decades, shouldn’t we be thinking long term immediately? Essentially, the actions we take today – the vehicles built and bought – could still have a significant impact on the US well over a decade from now even if nothing but EVs were built and sold starting tomorrow.
That reality – that legacy effect – should be our main driver today because it is very real and very quantifiable, and going hybrid is a legacy effect killer.
Recently, the President was excited about the stimulus-funded opening of a new lithium-ion battery plant, as he should be. Certainly, the President’s actions on plug-in vehicles have already dwarfed the actions of the previous President. Still, has much yet been accomplished? Even worse, many experts in the battery space claim much of this investment could easily go to waste as the possibility that production will far exceed demand looms very real.
Ultimately, nothing might be gained, but a lot of tax payer money could be lost, as new debt is added to our exploding deficit.
Not, however, if conventional hybrids were embraced as much as possible starting today.
Why not, for example, a $1500 tax credit for something like a Toyota Prius, as long as the battery is assembled in America? Even better why not stop giving out unlimited small business tax credits to buy the biggest gas guzzlers made – since most are made by the Big 3 – and offer those tax credits only for hybrid and natural gas versions? Make it profitable, for instance, for GM to convert 30 percent of its pickup truck sales into hybrid pickup truck sales.
Already GM builds a hybrid version of its top pickup trucks for crying-out-loud, and converting 30 percent of GM’s pickup truck sales into hybrid pickup truck sales might make GM a CAFE leader in the US, while offering hugely positive legacy potential. Why not invest in that change right now?
Without any doubt we can do far better today. The science on that issue is clear. For what are we waiting?
hmph.. $20 exchange where I live in the East. interesting… but yes.. price wins out.
Ultimately, I think natural gas just provides the kind of scale that resonates with conventional automaker scale – millions of vehicles.
Propane, on the other hand, might have potential as a niche interim solution, particularly in some areas, but probably only as a conversion. But, the US auto industry – and much of the US economy – is driven by new car sales, not any kind of conversions, despite what those conversions might achieve in terms of energy independence.
LarryG said – What’s wrong with that idea? Nothing Larry, the only point I was trying to make is propane is expensive. The Blue Rhino in my town WAS about $18.00 for several years for the 20# or 4.5 gallon exchange cylinder.
Last time I looked at Blue Rhino at Walmart it was just over $24.00 if my memory is correct for an exchange. That’s about $5.30/gallon. Considering it has 30% fewer Btu’s I don’t see that as something I want to convert my vehicle to use.
propane is only 2/3 as energy dense as gasoline so the true price is probably closer to $3.00 a gallon. But make no mistake – when you go into Home Depot or Lowes – those forklifts are usually propane-powered and their tanks are the quick connect kind so that when one runs out ..they just plug in a new one.
Most cars could carry two standard 20 gallon propane tanks where the gas tank is currently located and a trap door in the trunk would give quick access.
I bet it would be just as quick to swap out a tank of propane as it would take to get a fill-up.
So the point here is that despite the conventional wisdom that there is no distribution system for NG… true enough.. there IS for propane.
The next time you swing by a Walmart or a 7-11 or a WaWa or Home Depot – take a look – they all carry the Blue Rhino…. or some equivalent.
Now my idea is to put on each propane tank – “Made in America” “do your part to wean us off of foreign oil”.
and bumper stickers that say – “powered by good old American GREEN Fuel – PROPANE”.
what’s wrong with that idea?
Just checked the average price of propane in my home town in AZ which is $2.49.
Also checked on line here: “Weekly Summary of Residential Propane Prices (3/17/10 EIA update):”
The average residential propane price decreased 2.6 cents per gallon to reach 262.3 cents per gallon. This was an increase of 40.0 cents per gallon compared to the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices fell 7.2 cents per gallon to reach 123.7 cents per gallon. This was an increase of 50.8 cents per gallon when compared to the March 16, 2009 price of 72.9 cents per gallon.”.
If you can get propane for less than this it might be a good time to buy?
can’t deny that’s a good point, but we’d probably make some money off china, particularly if they chose to move swiftly, and there are other countries that might benefit from the same technologies.
nevertheless, trusting china probably isn’t the greatest of policies. of course, since they own a massive amount of US treasuries, we’ve already put quite a lot of faith in china!
dach – your faith in china “leasing” any tech from anyone is misplaced. despite the country’s long history of out-and-out counterfeiting of ideas, technology, tools, and just about anything else under the sun, china has recently shown strong reluctance to any spending outside of china. they are in-sourcing every single thing they can, which is why their gdp is as high as it is.
no, china will use the technology, develop spin-offs of their own, and reap all the benefits internally. they are doing what the US should have been doing for the last 20 years. instead, our corporations are more concerned with their shareholders profits rather than the health of this country.
just FYI:
” Propane is a by-product from two sources: natural gas processing and crude oil refining. Most of the LPG used in the
United States is produced domestically. When natural gas is produced, it contains methane and other light hydrocarbons
that are separated in a gas processing plant. Because propane boils at -44°F and ethane boils at -127°F, it is separated from
methane by combining increasing pressure and decreasing temperature. The natural gas liquid components recovered
during processing include ethane, propane, and butane, as well as heavier hydrocarbons. Propane and butane, along with
other gases, are also produced during crude refining as by-products of the processes that rearrange or break down the
molecular structure to obtain more desirable petroleum compounds.
Today there are more than 200,000 propane vehicles in the United
States and about 9 million worldwide. These include cars; pickup
trucks and vans; medium/heavy-duty vehicles such as shuttles,
trolleys, delivery trucks, and school buses; and off-road vehicles
such as forklifts and loaders. Propane has been used as a
transportation fuel around the world for more than 60 years.”
http://www.energy.state.md.us/incentives/transportation/factsheets/Propane.pdf
Propane is ubiquitous – many convenience stores WalMarts, Service stations etc sell the 20gal tanks. If cars could be modified to carry two of these tanks – you could run one empty – switch over to the other – and buy a replacement canister the next stop you stop at a Walmart or Convenience store.
Propane has twice the energy density – which means less on-board space needed for the tanks (you’d need TWICE as much space for the equivalent amount of NT) and then you won’t find NG at Walmart etc.
However, many home in urban area have natural gas and it would be possible to retrofit them as “filling” stations – which although feasible is probably not a good idea … given the events in California this week.
Obviously, the infrastructure is still a huge issue.
However, another very interesting issue is places like China. According to some research I’ve seen, China might have US like supplies of natural gas thanks to the new vertical drilling techniques developed in the US. Selling and licensing those technologies to places like China could probably drive some healthy profits back to US companies. Perhaps those costs could help offset a natural gas industry-led semi-private development of new natural gas infrastructure. Just an idea.
Why do I prefer natural gas to propane?
1. Natural gas can be a 100% American product (Thanks to recent discoveries in the US), while propane (which still comes from oil) still comes primarily from foreign sources.
2. There is sufficient natural gas available today to replace some, or all of the oil-based fuels currently being used in the US. If we truly chose to, we could be 100% free of foreign oil by using natural gas.
3. Those same discoveries have caused a crash in natural gas pricing, making natural gas the more economical solution. (This same natural gas price crash caused T Boone Pickens to suspend most of his efforts on windmills because they could no longer compete economically with natural gas)
Propane and natural do share one major limitation however…. Neither has an infrastructure of filling stations sufficient to meet today’s needs in the US.
i’ve seen some propane conversion stories recently, but I haven’t paid close enough attention to them. my understanding, however, is that natural gas would be cheaper than propane overall.
GM had their shot and blew it. Give the next bailout directly to the workers and tell the executroids to suck ass.
just FYI – propane is twice as energy-dense as natural gas.
but propane is only 2/3 as dense as gasoline.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
Virtually any ICE can be converted to propane and it would seem that if the car could be converted to carry two standard 20lb propane tanks that “filling” up would be relatively convenient….
but I’m sure that the average person is not going to pay to convert unless there is a payback.
Propane can be obtained for about $20 for a 20 gallon tank…. Even if that tank was only worth about 15 gallons of gasoline.. it still would be cheaper.
there must be something about the economics of this that does not add up to how I am thinking because it looks like a propane-powered car would be cheaper than a gasoline-powered car.