Plug-in hybrids, like large trucks, only for America?
Is a plug + an engine just not cost-effective?
Do pure battery electric cars have a scalable advantage?
When it comes to battery-powered technologies, I’m a big fan of hybrid cars. They simply offer the most bang for the buck and; therefore, the greatest market penetration potential. Considering the impact of the 2 decade+ legacy effect upon foreign oil dependence, market penetration is of critical importance today.
Similarly, when it comes to plug-ins, I also favor the hybrid version, although plug-in hybrids don’t typically offer the most cost-effective plug-in option. It’s just that plug-in hybrids are more consumer friendly and more fungible in terms of fueling options – at least in today’s North America.
Still, if plug-in hybrids aren’t successful outside of America, can they profitably succeed?
According to a recent Pike Report, the US and Canadian markets offer the greatest interim market potential for plug-in hybrids. Europe will probably favor plug-in electrics a bit more, but Asia – at least according to Pike – will strongly favor pure electric cars. As a result, by 2015 plug-in electrics are set to control 56 percent of the plug-in market.
Certainly, 56 percent of the market isn’t enough to provide that much of scaling advantage, but it’s a very noteworthy advantage nonetheless.
If Asia – essentially the world’s most important auto market now, and even more so heading into the future – favors pure electric cars already, then the upside potential of pure electrics seems much greater than that for plug-in hybrids. Considering the cost-effective advantage of the more simple pure electric drive train, this greater market potential could mean far greater scale for battery electrics versus plug-in hybrids, and exponentially cheaper costs, even by just 2020.
Double the range of these plug-in electrics in the next decade and far greater market penetration and scalable advantages seem even more possible – although both plug-ins will still offer relatively niche levels of market penetration. Nevertheless, more sales mean better scale and eventually cheaper costs .
Obviously, it’s still too early to suggest a winner in plug-in dominance, and both types of plug-ins will be around for decades. Yet, when it comes to hybrids, the best kind might always be the one without a plug, especially as – and if – alternative fuels truly enter the fray. On the other hand, the best plug-in will probably be the one without an engine – although fuel cells might soon mean the best electric car not only skips the engine, but the plug as well.
I agree that the Volt will have a resonance that the PIP doesn’t, but I’m not sure that will really matter long term, especially in terms of profitability.
In terms of plug-in hybrids, I don’t think Toyota is too worried. It’s just an option for Prius buyers who want to increase their EV potential and more important, their overall fuel economy. Ultimately, when it comes to the plug, Toyota is more of a fan of full electric cars. Nevertheless, I think Toyota’s vision of the future is options. Conventional Prius, plug-in hybrid Prius, plug-in electric prius and fuel cell hybrid prius.
Geoffrey-
“The claim that cars with ICEs will be around for “decades” I find ridiculously inaccurate.”
Every major automaker, the US government, the EU and every major auto analyst is making that claim.
LarryG,
There is Auris HSD and I believe it is selling faster than Prius in Europe.
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/03/01/geneva-2010-toyota-auris-hsd-scores-61-9-mpg-u-s-and-89-g-km/
Europeans drive smaller cars because 1) they are cheaper, 2) they have exorbitant taxes on gasoline, 3) they have smaller streets and much reduced longrange travel, which favors larger more comfortable cars.
A pure electric is infinitely superior in every conceivable way , excepting the high cost of the battery pack. When that is reduced around 50%, the ICE days are over. The claim that cars with ICEs will be around for “decades” I find ridiculously inaccurate.
Larry,
It’s easy to explain why the Auris on sale in Europe and not in the US.
Europeans have historically been willing to purchase small efficient vehicle in large quantities. Americans haven’t.
You wouldn’t sell pork chops in a Jewish neighborhood would you?
The problem is the batteries stupid.
I notice that the Auris is not offered in America but also it is not a hybrid and the Prius does not seem to be a serious competitor to other fuel efficient cars in Europe.
Why not?
Why does Toyota offer the gas and diesel Auris but not a hybrid Auris?
I live in Europe and out of all the cars I have looked at so far I prefer the Chevy Volt.
The Volt offers great potential and a significant saving on running costs.
I would then opt for a Toyota Auris next as this is a 75mpg car. Expensive for what it is, but with solid figures behind it and a good future ahead once Japan gets its country back on its feet.
I love the idea of pure electric, but so far 100 miles and no back up does not appeal to me. The price tag for this is neither appealing.
Like you say, hopefully this is the beginning of something sweet, and is obviously the way forward. Every car manufacturer with weight seems to be behind electric technology, so lets hope for the best.
If GM..or Ford…or Toyota made a conventional-sized SUV that got 48 mpg, they’d quickly skunk the other SUVs on the market.
people want their cake and eat it too.
Is that truly an impossible dream?
People are not opposed to a car that gets 48 mpg…they’d take it in a heartbeat if the car did not require too many compromises.
Americans are not only in love with cars (like the rest of the world, in fact) but Americans especially like cars that are capable of carrying a lot of things.
It’s hard to believe that an SUV would not benefit from regenerative brakes and start-stop technology as well as hydraulics.
That would seem to be a no-brainer, eh?
Dahc,
I kind of agree.
Americans just don’t seem to be willing to settle for a vehicle that can’t do everything. With every vehicle Americans seem to be focused on what it can’t do more than what it can. This especially true with EV’s.
With plug in hybrids, there are less things that the vehicle can’t do, and thus
Less excuses for Americans not to buy one.
But…..
I think this is also the reason why Americans wil like the Chevy Volt more than the plug in Prius. Americans will focus on the PIP’s inability to drive in EV mode at high speeds.
I’ve had many discussions with folks about both vehicles. With PIP their reaction is very Luke warm, but with the Volt they are very enthusiastic, because they feel it is a”best of both worlds” kind of vehicle.
So….. I think “some” plug in hybrids are exclusively American, but I’m not convinced all plug in hybrids are……
The nomenclature is used differently all over the media. Pure electric and plug-in electric is the same in my context. Plug-ins can be either, but plug-in hybrid definitely means an ICE engine is part of the powertrain. Consequently, the Chevy Volt is a plug-in hybrid, a unique version certainly – essentially a plug-in series, parallel hybrid. However, it is not a pure electric or pure plug-in electric car.
Dach – the difference between “pure electric” and plug-in electric is the ICE in the plug-in and no ICE in the “pure”?