Plug-in batteries could be game changers, but it won’t be easy
Just not cheap or energy dense enough
A 300 mile, cost-effective battery probably isn’t just around the corner
When will plug-in electric cars really take off? Basically when they offer the same range and ease of fueling as conventional vehicles claims conventional thinking. Oh yeah, and when they’re obviously more cost-effective. Of course, there is always the chance of a revolution in car consumer psychology, but the consumer studies offer little hope in that direction.
Unfortunately, creating a cheap, safe, quick-charging 300 mile battery isn’t going to be easy.
“It is a very humbling experience to work on batteries,” said Venkat Srinivasan, a scientist who leads the highly regarded Batteries for Advanced Transportation Technologies team at the Berkeley lab. “To make a good battery is incredibly hard, and to mass-produce it is even harder. If you shoot for one improvement, you usually lose out on something else, and you can’t compromise on safety. If we could double the energy density, that would be a huge breakthrough.”
The good news, however, is that battery costs are destined to come down, as much as 65 percent according to some analysis, and JD Power concurs.
“We think battery costs will come down due to volume manufacturing,” claims JD analyst Michael Omotoso, “but we don’t see energy density going up that much.”
Sadly, without a big gain in energy density, however, selling plug-in electric cars just isn’t going to be easy, especially when even big cost reductions in batteries might not be enough to replace federal tax credits when they expire, let alone lead to profit margins.
The lithium-air concepts seem appealing, and they should be available “in a few years”.
(yeah, i know. damn that phrase…)
The key is if we can get a way off of lithium or other rare earth minerals. My hope is on that geek in Bumfuk, Nebraska, waking up with “Eureeka!” on his mind.
*Sigh…*
If battery energy density is not expected to increase by more than double any time soon, then all we can really expect is more 100-mile range EV’s in the near future.
GM must have come to a similar conclusion when they did their own research, and it may have led to their decision to go forward with the Chevy Volt.
If battery costs are reduced by 66%, it could help to offset the tax breaks for plug-in vehicles when they expire, but not much else. It won’t get plug-in vehicle prices down to where they would be considered main stream.