What do you believe our transportation infrastructure will look like?

Tom G.

As far as software goes I agree it will become increasingly important but it will take time. We already have quad core processors yet most individuals today are still running 32 bit software on a single core. Gamers do use at least a couple of cores for some games. I see software at least 5-10 years behind the hardware. This is one area I see ripe for a breakthrough; some type of simplified programming language; something spoken maybe. Last; I see us as an electric society.

Have a great day
Tom G.

Tom – I understand the wish for the car/train combo, and I’ve read about it on other blogs, but in reality, it’s a pipedream. Just the logistics of having to create a whole new rail system based on the size of vehicle participation is mind-boggling. After all, it ain’t gonna be just you daddi-o, who wants to literally “ride the rails”.
Also, in regard to your comment that cars last too long, the fact is cars used to last 15-20 years easily “back in the day”. But when the auto industry realized it could make more bucks by making degradable or non-adaptable parts, THAT’S when you started having vehicle life expectancies of 5-7 years.
Personally, I want my car to last as long as possible. Sorry, but I don’t have the $20-30k to throw around as loosely as others.
Ciao…

Nonetheless, the revolution will be software driven, that I know for certain. In particular, I really like the auto-pilot software demonstrated via the DARPA Grand Challenge, but that’ll probably only be a niche in the short term (10 -20 years). Technologies like carbon fiber will also be a huge part of the formula as well, as will some combination of batteries, fuel cells, reformers, etc..

Likewise, a real wild card is solar power, but only if cars become SIGNIFICANTLY lighter, which I believe is inevitable. Carbon fiber and software-driven safety features, I believe, can result in much lighter, yet safer, autos with radical fuel efficiency capabilities, even if using gasoline. In fact, I believe that weight, not batteries, should be America’s number one priority today.

Ultimately, however, imagine the teenager of today. Instead of driving to work in the ever-more congested world of tomorrow, I’d bet they’d rather play the latest driving video game on Playstation on the way to work, while knocking out a few e-mails, calls, etc.. Suddenly, the car is just a mobile Internet hot spot – a mobile office or mobile game room.

Have any ideas what this ‘revolution’ might look like?

Tom G.

Ultimately, I think a revolution is near and it might destroy the current auto industry. Their business model is dead and someone is going to come up with a new, much more cost-effective business model that will seem odd at first, but then we’ll wonder why it took so long to see the light.

I see cars like the MIT City Car in our future which we will just lease, keep in our garage, drive it onto a mass transit system of some type and possibly drive the last 2-10 miles to work without ever leaving our vehicle. When newer and better technology arrives you just turn in the old vehicle for recycling and get a newer, better, faster, cheaper and smoother riding one. I see leasing as one possible option for the future for our automotive industry.

How far is this into the future? My guess is maybe 20-50 years. Wouldn’t it be sweet if you could drive onto a train in L.A., sit in your car reviewing all the Vegas shows you might want to see and when you arrive, you just drive there.

Tom G.

I believe this is definitely a piece of the future of the auto industry. Also, I think car ownership is going to become less important over time as well, making constant change easier. Better Place has been barking up this tree with their long term business model, which is more akin to the cell phone business model than the auto business.

Likewise, I believe that within the decade, there will be a car-sharing service built around auto-pilot. Essentially, auto-taxis could pick up subscribers, drive them to work, the store, etc using the safest, most efficient route based on real time data from multiple sources – all for a fraction of the cost of vehicle ownership.

The one comment that struck me was; we are currently building vehicles that last too long. The statement was based on some interesting concepts.

The statement – “We are designing and building vehicles that last too long.” When I heard this statement I was shocked. Hasn’t this been one of the core values vehicle purchaser want – a vehicle that can last for years and years? However; some of the principles behind this reasoning are quite interesting.

According to the presenter; since vehicle technology is moving so quickly we should be purchasing a new vehicle every few years instead of every 10-20 years. Some of the benefits identified were interesting:

+ A significantly improved vehicle fleet fuel economy average.
+ Rapid incorporation of new technology.
+ More jobs for the labor force
+ Faster recycling of old dirty vehicles

Here is a link to the program if interested.

http://uctv.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=16539