NRC – New engines and hybrids most promising for next 15 years
Ecoboost the first step to hybrid pickup trucks?
Could “greatly” reduce fuel consumption by 2025
Over the next 15 years conventional spark-ignition engines will continue to dominate the US auto industry, according to the National Resource Council (NRC). Fortunately, a “significant” number of new technologies, such as friction reduction, downsizing, better thermal management, turbocharging, etc., can be combined to decrease fuel consumption by almost 30 percent, without reducing safety, performance or utility.
Likewise, diesel and hybrid technologies offer further improvements, but at greater upfront costs.
According to the NRC, achieving a 30 percent increase in fuel economy over the next 15 years using conventional engines will, on average, add $2200 to the cost of a new vehicle. Moreover, such technologies offer incremental improvement capabilities, making such improvements more financially viable for automakers according to the NRC.
Over the same period, new diesel engines could decrease fuel consumption by 37 percent, at a cost of $5900 per vehicle, while hybrid cars offer a 43 percent improvement for $6000.
Additionally, it’s important to note these are averages. Obviously, the additional costs of hybrid technology, for instance, are less for smaller vehicles and greater for larger vehicles.
Likewise, there are numerous hybrid types. Consequently, adding mild hybrid technologies to some vehicles might make more sense than full hybrid technologies, especially in the short term, as some gain is better than no gain.
The NRC also notes that plug-in hybrids will also be sold during this time, but additional costs will make them less viable than conventional hybrids. Likewise, electric cars will also be marketed, but battery technologies are not expected to improve enough in the next 15 years, according to the NRC, for battery electrics to be very viable.
In summary, the NRC study seems to suggest there isn’t a one size fits all type of solution for the auto industry. At the end of the day, constant, incremental improvements in fuel efficiency should be the interim focus of the auto industry and policy makers, at least until battery technologies are significantly improved. Therefore, perhaps technologies like Ecoboost and mild hybrids are the first steps towards towards full hybrid and plug-in pickup trucks. And, since it might take 15 years or more before plug-in trucks are viable, for instance, technologies like Ecoboost are just that much more important in the interim.
I guess you just can’t become a marathoner over night.
Perhaps more important, the auto industry should be more judged by what they are doing TODAY regarding better fuel economy, not what they might do tomorrow.
I agree. Electric vehicles priced for the masses are still years away. Improved efficiency will have the most impact for the average consumer.
But, let’s not discount alternative fuels. CNG and biofuels could also see significant growth in the next 15 years.
With improved efficiency and alternative fuels in the coming years, we could put a serious dent in our foreign oil consumption……