Nissan/Renault take a step towards 10 percent EV share by 2020
The path to 10 percent penetration by 2020?
Critical pieces of the EV puzzle
When it comes to electric cars, probably the biggest bull in the auto industry is Nissan/Renault, at least in terms of forecasts. According to this alliance, electric cars will achieve 10 percent penetration by 2020. Consequently, along with the Leaf, Nissan et al will launch an additional 4 electric cars in Europe in 2011 and 2012 (all pictured above).
More important, Nissan/Renault are ready to spend $5 billion to make their EV plans happen.
$5 billion is unquestionably a pretty serious number – a number that could absorb a lot of losses on the first few generations of electric cars in the name of dominating EV supply chains and manufacturing capabilities. Consequently, in 20 years, what might seem a $5 billion loss by 2020, could lead to nice profits by 2030 – when EV penetration should begin making serious gains in market share.
Aside from the $5 billion investment, the other interesting part of this story is the “subscription” model of battery leasing that Nissan/Renault seem to be envisioning as a critical element of higher levels of EV penetration.
In the past GM and Better Place have also discussed battery leasing, and it seems short term EV success – and 10 percent penetration by 2020 would definitely be a success – will require something beyond basic EV sales.
Still, a “subscription” just for the battery and extra battery services? Wouldn’t straight vehicle leasing be simpler?
Perhaps not. If there is a problem with a lithium-ion battery pack, much of the pack will probably still be very useful. Consequently, through a “subscription” service, Nissan might be able to replace battery packs with recycled and refurbished battery packs at a much cheaper cost than replacing with a brand new battery pack.
Sure that probably isn’t a path to short term profitability, but long term such an approach might make sense, as lithium battery recycling could eventually become a huge business in and off itself. Additionally, such an approach can probably also help Nissan better manage its EV warranty obligations.
Green? I’m still not going to put that word in the same sentence as Nissan (see earlier post). Nevertheless, if Nissan dominates EV sales by 2020, I might be tempted to rethink their color.
Yes electric vehicles going to be the future cars. There are many reasons for that, one the environment issue and the second all petroleum products going higher and third it is cheaper. So that is a good long term investment.
Well…
The Electronic Vehicles are growing its demand day to day. The coming 4 models of Nissan must come in demand in Europe. It is not impossible for the share of EV to 10 percent by 2020.
I know there are many that completely disagree with the idea of auto-drive. Nevertheless, I’d love to drive but a few times per year. On those few occasions when i desperately want to drive I’d rent something like a Porsche Spyder hybrid and put on a few hundred miles of a great weekend vacation. Then I’d be good for a few years.
Ultimately, I just want to get from point a to point b as efficiently and comfortably as possible.
Today, I pay $3 round trip to take the subway to my favorite watering hole and home. $3.00. Why would I ever consider driving? However, if I would pay a few bucks more to take a private transportation pod home with Internet, comfy seating, great sound system, etc..
steve,
and yet you propose diesel and biodiesel as a key solution.
where is the science to support your position? there is great science from MIT and Oxford University, to name but a few, that I can present that suggests that you don’t really know what you’re talking about.
however, please, feel free to prove me wrong. ultimately, my goal is US energy independence as a first step to sustainable energy. not many years ago, for instance, i was horribly opposed to natural gas, today i believe it’s a great interim solution.
i’m open-minded. are you?
there is no doubt a serious rare earth mineral issue when it comes to hybrids and evs, yet there is plenty of science to suggest that all rare earths could be replaced with sustainable, engineered materials.
on the other hand, however, to suggest there is enough rare earths to cost-effectively power the world via windpower, especially with growing monopoly on rare earths in china, requires that you provide some of the same shit you are smoking to me before i agree with you ( i can be found at the 35er every Friday afternoon). because you’re nuts.
oh, and by the way, what’s the root of all fertilizers feeding every major source of every biofuel?
Trading petroleum for rare and heavy metal minerals is not sustainable and will profoundly impact the efforts of thousands of other industries including the renewable energy industry for the long term.
You cannot be driving around in the largest sequestration of rare earth minerals in human history – Hybrids in general and the Toyota Prius specifically – for a typical 30-40 minutes per day – knowingly eliminating the opportunity to build more wind turbines that could be generating 10-14 hours of Green power per day – and call yourself concerned about a Green and sustainable future.
etcgreen.com EV’s and Hybrids are not our Future
dahcredyns I couldn’t agree more. Hundreds of times I wished hands free driving was available. And as you alluded to, I could be doing something much more productive like reading your blog. At least then I would be learning something instead of staring at a highway.
i agree tom. and with new materials and new computer software, such vehicles can be also be every bit as safe, if not safer, than any vehicle on the road.
the key is, how do we get consumers to rethink their expectations?
that isn’t going to be easy, but I keep thinking the kids. they are soooooo into facebook, myspace, tweeting and texting, for instance. driving means very little to them. auto-drive software could turn these vehicles into cool, rent-able transportation pods, even if they don’t have driver’s licenses, with a focus on entertainment and social networking that is driving the mindset of kids.
certainly, that’s not the only way forward, but I really do believe that ‘driving’ is becoming largely irrelevant to kids. certainly, they want transportation, but driving isn’t a critical element of transportation.
The second vehicle from the left looks a whole lot like the old MIT City Car. Go here to have a look see.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/02/mits_stackable.php
However this one is my favorite. I would buy this sucker any day.
http://cities.media.mit.edu/projects/citycar.html
Is it really true that Nissan/Renault leads the electric car iindustry? How about the other companies.
Well, they are Nissan’s batteries and the Nissan/Renault alliance is quite cozy and shares leadership and a common goal regarding EV development, so when it comes to EVs, it’s mostly branding differences I’d say.
One little clarification; Nissan will not lease batteries, Renault will.
JLP