Lithium plug-ins probably not the future, but still important
Plugging in just a niche technology for decades?
The plug-in revolution will take decades to advance into the mainstream
As I’ve rested in bed the last several days, struck down by a nasty virus, one quote has been bouncing around my head.
“To compete with advancing gasoline/diesel engines, EV traction batteries have to be much more than twice as energy dense as lithium-ion ever will be, at least three times cheaper, and last much longer before replacement.”
“As lithium-ion ever will be”. That’s a pretty strong statement put forth by the TrendTracker report, “Electric Vehicles: Energy, infrastructure and the mobility market in the real world”.
Of course, that doesn’t mean TrendTracker is right. However, in the last few years similar sentiments have been put forth by some of the most renowned researchers in the lithium battery industry – people that have been developing lithium batteries for 30 years. Additionally, numerous academic and industry studies and forecasts have come to similar conclusions. Even Toyota has made this same claim.
Unfortunately, if true, it will probably take decades to move beyond lithium.
Nevertheless, while lithium might not be the perfect technology to mainstream plug-in vehicles across the globe, it will still be an undoubtedly critical interim technology. Moreover, coupled with some kind of dynamic charging breakthrough, for instance, perhaps lithium’s capabilities could be extended. Regardless, lithium alone doesn’t appear to be the game-changing technology many hoped it would become – including me – at least not without supplementary technologies or a revolutionary change in consumer behavior.
Yet, ironically, the TrendTracker report also notes that dwindling oil supplies could make electrification essential by 2050, despite the fact that the auto industry currently seems to be on track to continue to produce mostly fossil-fueled vehicles through at least 2050.
Alex-
The focus was on lithium for this particular post.
Hydrogen? It’s a much more interesting story today than it was even a year ago. There have been numerous breakthroughs in bio-hydrogen in just the first few months of this year. Still, it’s very early in the bio-hydrogen story. Ultimately, I think hydrogen will play a major role, but it could take a while. There’s plenty we can today until hydrogen proves itself viable. Besides the best hydrogen vehicle might still be a hybrid, even a plug-in hybrid – which might be the key to both lithium and hydrogen.
2020 as the year for what big decision? And 2050 isn’t my prediction. I’ve stopped making predictions. Several years ago, I forecast that the lithium revolution would make hybrid cars a no-brainer compared to conventional cars by around 2010. So. I’m just following the data these days.
Still, what big decision do you see? Most consumers moving to EVs? Fuel cells? Everything other than oil because of peak oil?
Automakers aren’t preparing for such a big decision or change. The supply chains, for example, aren’t being developed, nor are the production lines for any big change beyond ICE. Not that big automakers necessarily know what they are doing. Most didn’t do anything to anticipate the 2008 gas spike, so what do they really know?
Now, certainly, a technological breakthrough could force automakers to ramp up more quickly. But when companies like JD Power, for instance, make their hybrid and plug-in forecasts, for instance, they largely measure actual production lines and supply chains + plans to increase. Likewise, many closely following the battery space seem to believe we’ll have to move beyond lithium and a number of battery technologies do show significant promise. However, most seem to believe it will take a few decades to develop and cost-effectively scale into the auto industry.
I’d look more to 2030 as being the beginning of a massive change. The problem then is that it still takes 20 years to work this new change through the legacy fleet. Of course, that again assumes peak oil doesn’t happen any time soon and production declines rapidly. But what happens then? WWIII?
I remember several years ago when hydrogen was going to be The Next Big Thing, and everyone talked about EV’s as being an interim vehicle until the Hydro’s got up and running. Lithium wasn’t even part of the discussion, it was just “who is going to drive what, and when.”
Speaking of “when”, I wouldn’t stick to close to that 2050 time frame. From what I’ve seen and read, it could be a LOT closer than that. I’m looking at around 2020 as being THE year for the Big Decision…
Surprised to see no mention of hydrogen? The most renewable of alternative energy sources (i.e. infinite!)? If science finds a way to harness it efficiently (which, granted, it hasn’t yet) then, well, we’re sorted aren’t we?
thanks larry.
it’s good marketing to show off those plug-ins. it drives buzz, but i wonder if that buzz isn’t beginning to dry up a bit? too much hype, too little product.
anyway, i agree that bridge solutions are possible. what’s needed is a long term and comprehensive energy policy. it can’t just be plug-ins. in fact, that might just ensure further problems in the future.
regardless, our hand might be played for us if the Middle East and North Africa stay on pace.
sorry to hear that you’ve been laid up but now on the mend so hang in….
Given the points you made, makes me wonder why virtually every car maker is showing off their future plug-in….
Two things have entered the arena and that is the realization that we can now access to fossil fuels thought infeasible a few years back and that is natural gas through fracting and the oil sands of Canada – both with environmental baggage but both domestic or near-domestic for all practical purposes.
Combine this with the fact that it’s starting to appear that advances in ICE and hybrid technologies could bring us 50mpg cars and we may have bought plenty of “bridge” time for whatever will come next anyhow.