Hybrids and the end of the American car

Karma: Is this really the path towards efficiency for the masses?

For decades the US has driven the world's auto industry. If an automaker could make it here, they could make it anywhere. But, is America still that important?

Recently, China topped the US in auto sales, yet the Chinese auto market has barely been scratched. Likewise, add in the potential of all 4 BRIC countries, let alone the rest of the emerging markets, and the importance of the US market could be significantly marginalized in just a decade or two.

Even more interesting, by 2030, according to a plethora of research, hybrid cars and EVs - the proverbially future of the US market - will achieve, in a best case scenario, a combined 30 percent share in the US. Yet, in the developing world, share will probably be significantly lower as most research suggests emerging markets will embrace far cheaper forms of transportation than US-like products.

Thus, just how important is the battery to auto industry success?

When Henry Ford, for example, revolutionized the US auto industry, his success was driven by efficiency. Efficient scalability, or cost-effective solutions for the greatest numbers, powered the US auto industry for decades. Then, of course, the market saturated and maximized quarterly profits, rather than increased efficiency, took over the US auto market.

But the automotive world is quickly changing. New and huge, yet totally un-American markets are quickly emerging. While American autos might be cost-effective for some early adopters in some emerging markets, will they be cost-effective for the masses? Will adding batteries to American autos make them more cost-effective, or less cost-effective, for the masses?

If Henry Ford's efficient scalability is the key to the future of auto industry success, doesn't the US market have to become more worldly? Moreover, can the world market, ultimately, be based on anything other than the cheapest and safest efficiency possible, whether that includes batteries or not?

Chevy Volt MPV5 minivan concept

The latest Voltec creation

GM debuted a compact minivan version of the Chevy Volt today in Beijing, China according to Straightline.

EV range drops to 32 miles, compared to the Volt's 40 miles, but the gasoline engine can provide another 300 miles of electric power.

Interesting, but I think I'd call it the MPV5 crossover, not compact minivan.

Chinese plugs-ins: What about the coal?

Are coal-powered EVs right for China?

There is a big move afoot in China to quickly move it's developing auto industry from today's petroleum-guzzling technologies to battery powered technologies. Yet, not everyone in China agrees that's a good idea.

Because China derives 83 percent of it's electricity from coal, Huang Xiangdong, vice president of Guangzhou Automobile Group Corp., a major Chinese carmaker that has ventures with Honda Motor Co. and other global players, according to the DetroitNews, believes the move to plug-ins is premature.

Because of this reliance upon coal, according to Xiangdong, "battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids do not save more energy than conventional cars on a well-to-wheel analysis," said Huang. "We think in China it's not the right time to promote pure electric vehicles."

Hitachi battery breakthrough not for cars?

Only for large scale storage

I've been following a story on Hitachi lithium magnesium batteries for the last week or two. When I originally read about this breakthrough, I was a bit skeptical. Just days earlier, I had learned that Hitachi desperately needed to derive new sources of revenue, so I suspected this claim of doubling the life span of lithium batteries might just have been an overly positive statement meant for potential shareholders.

Instead, it seems to be the real deal.

Sadly, however, there is no near term value for such batteries in the automotive space, instead these batteries are specifically designed for large scale industrial use, such as "electrical power storage in wind power generation and other new energy fields, and as industrial power sources for electric-powered construction machinery designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

In fact because of the potential of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrids, Hitachi worried that increased demand for cobalt would eventually make its large scale battery applications too expensive. Hence, several years ago Hitachi began developing new lithium ion batteries that used more manganese spinel materials, rather than cobalt. Unfortunately, first gen batteries only offered a life span of about 5 years, but new prototypes based on new cathode materials have shown the ability to double this lifespan.

Perhaps one day this breakthrough will find its way into hybrids and plug-ins, but even if not ever suitable for automotive applications, this breakthrough could still help more green energy find its way into plug-in vehicles.

Ford - Much more fed money needed for battery research

To power with American batteries

"Despite $25 billion to help automakers retool plants, a $7,500 tax credit and billions in stimulus funding for charging stations and related infrastructure, automakers continue to lobby the federal government for more aid to spur sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles," notes Kicking Tires this morning.

And while giving the closing speech at the Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress yesterday, Bill Ford Jr echoed this sentiment, calling for greater government involvement regarding electric vehicles, particularly battery research, according to the DetroitNews.

Nonetheless, as Kicking Tires suggests, and has been discussed endlessly on this blog, doesn't it all really come down to the price of gas?

The wrong path to energy independence

The most important vehicle in America?

GreenCarCongress has an interesting summary of two of the latest studies on plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The first, a UC-Davis study "estimates electricity and gasoline use under three recharging scenarios", and amongst its key findings deduces "The majority of gasoline reduction is due to increases in CS (charge-sustaining, i.e., conventional hybrid mode) fuel economy, not in the displacement of gasoline with electricity in CD (charge-depleting, i.e., electric-power) mode."

The second, a UC Berkely study claims plug-in hybrid value has up to now been undervalued. The true value of plug-in hybrids is defined by their ability to provide fuel choice to consumers, or "properly accounting for the uncertain path of future fuel prices and for the PHEV driver’s ability to respond to these prices by choosing the day’s fuel can raise the battery price at which PHEVs may pay for themselves".

Finish - Plug-in tax credits: The wrong path to energy independence

Plugging in is America's best chance forward?

The Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid

According to The Electric Coalition, if the US set in motion a plan to be 75 percent EV by 2040, that plan would result in massive job creation, a smaller deficit and an increase in household wealth. Obviously, and of course, the plan would require significant targeted incentives for the purchase of plug-in vehicles, infrastructure, etc.

Sadly, however, the report also shows that the US is probably going to be dependent upon foreign oil for a very long time forward, regardless of whether this plan is put into motion or not.

If true isn't this also more proof of the importance of natural gas, purely as an interim solution, particularly if new horizontal drilling techniques can be proven groundwater safe? Ultimately, it seems natural gas could provide many of the same economic benefits as this EV plan, but sooner. Couldn't that more immediate savings then help fund this EV plan?

Inevitably, it is going to take more than 3 decades for electrification to completely displace the need for America's foreign oil dependence. Can't we do more in the interim to facilitate this plan?

Honda's Volt-like plug-in hybrids coming soon?

GM's range extended plug-in Volt

When the next Honda Accord hits the streets, it just might come with a plug-in option according to some Honda insiders. It seems Honda has been quietly developing a Chevy Volt-like plug-in hybrid drive that also utilizes capacitors to increase EV range.

In addition to the next Accord, Honda's new plug-in drive could also be fitted to larger vehicles, including SUVs.

A battery-powered chance for the Big 3

Detroit's best selling hybrid

Last year, Toyota sold hundreds of thousands of hybrid cars, and since the launch of the Prius, Toyota has sold millions of hybrids.

Ford, the leading American hybrid manufacturer, has only sold about 125,000 hybrids in total since the launch of its first hybrid.

Fortunately, Toyota uses NiMH batteries in its hybrids, rather than the lithium-ion batteries that will power the future of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Thus, it seems the Big 3 have a chance to catch up to Toyota's battery-powered lead.

Yet, the Big 3 - and America - seem woefully unprepared.

If the battery is the key to plug-in vehicle viability and profits, then the Big 3 could be in trouble. Experts claim that some 70 percent of battery-powered value is found in lithium cell production, something that is practically non-existent in the US, particularly in terms of the auto. Moreover, companies like Toyota have already secured massive amounts of lithium for cell and battery production, production that Toyota will own a share of from the ground up, literally.

Now comes word that Japan is going to offer Bolivia a huge package of economic aid in exchange for lithium and rare metals.

Considering the massive investments the government has already made in the Big 3, coupled with analysis that suggests the lithium battery wars could be won within the next 5 to 10 years, is it time for an even bigger government role in the US auto industry?

Hybrids: Reasons not to listen to Forbes

It won't create energy independence?

Yesterday, Forbes ran Reasons not to buy a hybrid, yet Forbes couldn't offer one compelling reason not to buy a hybrid, assuming energy independence was their primary goal, as stated in their subtitle.

Hybrid vehicles, even the plug-in kind, are simply inefficient because they have two powertrains according to Forbes.

Who cares? Success is about one thing and one thing only, cost-effectiveness. According to Toyota, sometime after 2020 the price difference between hybrids and non-hybrids will be a minor fraction of what is today, and quickly recovered via gains in fuel economy, especially if gas prices continue to rise in the next decade.

Even if true, they still can't lead to energy independence Forbes claims.

Why not? A fleet of natural gas and/or biofueled hybrids and plug-in hybrids could EASILY lead to the end of foreign oil dependence. Likewise, such development would more quickly advance battery technology. Moreover, as battery technology evolves, hybrids and plug-ins could be upgraded to even more efficient batteries, negating the legacy effects caused by conventional vehicles upon energy dependence.

Instead, the Forbe's plan to energy independence is better highway fuel economy, smaller cars and diesel fuel. Apparently, that's the cheapest way to burn through the rest of the world's oil, which naturally ends our foreign oil dependence of course.

Chevy Volt on track for extremely limited late 2010 launch

Coming in November to a dealer near you?

There is still much software to be written and much needed testing, but the first Chevy Volt hit the assembly line at GM's Hamtramck plant Monday "to ferret out any areas that are difficult to assemble" according to GM's Bob Lutz. Most important, the Volt program is on track for its November launch.

Nonetheless, for those longing a Volt, get ready to wait much longer as only about 4,000 Volts will be produced during its first year of production.

$8.00 gas - The key to mass plug-in adoption?

VW's Up electric car

Most Americans are not willing to pay much extra for improved fuel economy, especially when gas prices are below $3.00 per gallon. Even at $4.00 or $5.00, most Americans would rather downsize a bit than convert to hybrids. Despite the long term savings on gasoline, most Americans simply avoid hybrid cars because of the extra upfront costs.

And this dilemma could be worse for plug-in hybrids and EVs.

"It's going to be very difficult, unless you have $8-a-gallon gasoline, for any normal consumer to look at a Volt or a Nissan Leaf," John O'Dell, the senior editor of Edmunds' Green Car Advisor, recently told Forbes.

Yet, ironically, some studies have suggested that once gas starts rising far above $5.00 a gallon, Americans start thinking a little less about fuel efficiency, and a little more about paying as little as possible for a new vehicle to offset the increased costs of energy - which affect more than just transportation. So, if gas prices rise too high, interest in plug-ins could actually be stymied rather than increased.

Inevitably, despite the long term value of hybrids and EVs, most Americans are simply not willing to pay more up front to save more in the long term. Are gas prices the only thing that can change this mentality?

When will a plug-in vehicle outsell the Toyota Prius?

Will the plug-in Prius ever outsell the conventional Prius?

Why did GM kill the Cadillac Converj, a plug-in based upon the same Voltecs hybrid drive as the upcoming Chevy Volt? Wouldn't making as many range-extended EVs across as many models as possible help bring down costs quicker?

"Sure, each Cadillac Converj would not lose as much money as each Chevy Volt," reports MotorTrend's Todd Lassa. "But it still would lose money, and the best way to limit losses from new technology is to limit volume. "This Cadillac doesn't lose as much money as this Chevy" isn't a business case. Volt is designed to be a "volume" model, eventually produced in the tens of thousands, but it will be years before we see that."

Years before we see tens of thousands of Volts produced per year? The Toyota Prius is already selling in the hundreds of thousands, so the Volt seems at least a decade away from topping the Prius. Then again, the Volt? Unfortunately, we've known about GM's limited production numbers for some time, so I doubt the Volt will be the first plug-in to contend with the Prius.

Besides, the Nissan Leaf has been the real plug-in story these days........

Finish: When will a plug-in vehicle outsell the Toyota Prius?

Plug-in adoption underestimated? Big 3 screwed either way?

How much interest?

A new study by PRTM, a global management consulting firm, suggests recent predictions of large format lithium-ion battery surpluses within the next decade are largely "unfounded."

Instead, PRTM is predicting a battery shortfall by 2016. Likewise, even if plug-in demand is less than expected, utility demand for large format batteries could pick up the slack, a point other studies have missed according to PRTM.

Most interesting, the US and Europe are facing serious shortfalls in lithium cell manufacturing compared to Asia. Unfortunately, cell manufacturing accounts for 70 percent of the value of a lithium battery pack - the key to plug-in profits - and this underinvestment in cell manufacturing could "have wide-ranging consequences in global competitiveness."

2012: A key year in the lithium wars

Ready for conversion

By as early as 2014, according to recent analysis, the winners of the automotive battery industry might have already won and revenues will rule.

Within the next few years a number of lithium-powered hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs will hit the road. Initially, most will be low-volume vehicles. Consequently, sales of NiMH hybrids will continue to dominate for some time, unless of course Toyota converts the Prius into a lithium hybrid.

Considering the importance of lithium, how long can Toyota wait before committing to lithium for its flag ship Toyota Prius? Even if Toyota's lithium-powered plug-in Prius tops plug-in sales by 2014, that might not be enough for industry-leading revenues. Of course, Toyota's recent lithium investments and battery partnerships hint that such complacency is unlikely.

Moreover, Ford has started to sound a lot like Toyota on hybrid vehicles. By 2018 it's possible that Ford could actually begin to challenge Toyota's hybrid sale's crown, and Ford's lithium commitment appears set to begin in 2012, with lithium-powered conventional hybrids the key.

When the plug-in Prius goes on sale in late 2011, I expect lithium-powered conventional Prius hybrids won't be far behind. If not, maybe Toyota will need some kaizen lessons from Ford.

Daimler to help Build Your Dreams

Chinese manufactured hybrids coming soon?

Ready for Chinese made vehicles? Of course you're not, but would a $15,000 Prius-like hybrid, or a $25,000 Chevy Volt-like plug-in - branded by Mercedes Benz - change your mind?

Perhaps not, but I'd bet such vehicles could pique the attention of many Americans, and such hybrids and plug-in vehicles are now closer to reality thanks to a new partnership between Daimler and BYD.

BYD's battery experience, location to critical supplies and availability of cheap labor, coupled with Daimler's experience, might not ever mean much outside of China, but the potential of such a venture cannot be denied, or ignored.

Chinese-made battery packs for American cars are inevitable, and Chinese made hybrid cars won't be far behind.

Study - Chevy Volt wrong path to plug-in success?

40 miles of EV range the wrong approach?

Over that last few years a number of battery studies have suggested that, based on current lithium-ion technologies, small-battery plug-in hybrids offer the most compelling overall case to consumers in terms of performance and cost-effectiveness.

Obviously, this flies in the face of not just the Chevy Volt and it's 40 miles of EV range, but also the government's entire plug-in tax credit program, something Hybridcarblog has asserted since the program was conceived, most recently in Does the government have battery-powered cars all wrong?

A new study by UC-Davis also concludes that small battery plug-in hybrids seem to make the most sense not just technologically, but also for consumers, making the government's "4.0 kWh lower limit on battery size difficult to reconcile" according to the researchers.

VW: 3 percent hybrid and EV by 2018

Nice improvement, but.......

Starting in 2012, VW will launch a number of new hybrid cars and electric vehicles, including the UP concept, as well as hybrid and electric versions of the Golf and Jetta, in addition to hybrid versions of the Passat and Touareg. Combined, the vehicles should achieve 3 percent of VW's total share of vehicles by 2018 according to current plans.

"The goal is to become the market leader in E-mobility by the year 2018. We want to attain an electric vehicle market share of three percent within our entire range of products. We will take the hybrid out of its niche status with our high-volume models. In the future, the heart of the brand will also beat with electricity," noted Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen AG.

While that's a very nice improvement, it's hard to call that leadership. Toyota already sits above 3 percent hybrid share, and by 2020 Toyota hopes to be at 20 to 30 percent hybrid share, in addition to offering its own plug-in hybrid and EV solutions.

Of course, with all the recall scandals dogging Toyota, maybe 3 percent will be enough to be the battery-powered leader!? Either that, or it will be a blood path for the #2 EV-share player.

Could a Bloom box hybrid be in your near future?

Could sulfur oxide fuel cells be the missing link?

Since 60 Minutes ran its piece on the Bloom Box (watch), interest in sulfur oxide fuel cells has suddenly exploded, and one wonders if Bloom's take on fuel cells is just the tip of the iceberg in fuel cell breakthroughs.

Just a couple of years ago, it seemed the fuel cell was dead, even amongst some of the die hard automakers that had supported fuel cells rigorously for decades. The pipe dream, it seemed, just might be over.

Those of us that have continued to pay attention to fuel cells, however, have noticed some very interesting new angles being pursued in the last couple of years, from different materials to different fuels. The Bloom Box is just the latest, most public example.

Finish: Could a Bloom box hybrid be in your near future?

Government money for Jaguar hybrids

Tax money required for hybridization?

Last year Jaguar received almost $800 million in government loans to keep the automaker alive. This year the EU has granted another $500 million to Jaguar to develop hybrid cars.

Why?

Does the world really need Jaguar, even a hybrid Jaguar?

Shifting through the sounds of a Lotus Evora hybrid

The back end of the Lotus Evora 414E hybrid

OK. I know that most following this blog don't really care about luxury hybrids, such as Porsche's latest Cayenne hybrid, or hybrid sports cars, such as the latest announced by Lotus.

Nonetheless, I thought the Lotus Evora 414E plug-in hybrid was worth a little ink this morning. Not because the Evora hybrid can from travel from 0 - 60 in less than 4 seconds, nor because it can travel 35 miles on pure electric power before its range extending engine kicks in to achieve a total range of 300 miles.

No, its the sounds of the Lotus Evora that are most intriguing. With a sound system developed by Lotus and Harman International, the Evora "uses speakers inside the cabin and on the exterior to imitate engine and gear sounds. Four sound options are available to drivers: V-6, V-12, "futuristic," and a combination of conventional engine and futuristic," according to MotorTrend.

Is fake noise cheesy in a sports car?

Well, the cheese doesn't end there. The Evora hybrid also provides a driving experience that simulates a seven-speed twin-clutch gearbox for all the gear-head posers out there.

Does the government have battery cars all wrong?

Do 25,000 Volts change the auto game?

For a long time I've been critical of the government's plug-in tax credits. They are simply too focused on large battery vehicles. While some might counter 'the bigger the battery the better', the plethora of studies demonstrating the cost-ineffectiveness of such vehicles is simply undeniable.

Inevitably, big battery plug-in hybrids, for instance, will not EVER be cost-effective using current battery technologies according to the scientific consensus. Major breakthroughs beyond manufacturing improvements will be required.

And, fortunately, the government is pumping massive amounts of money into developing some sort of battery industry in the US. Yet, again, one must ask, 'Is the government taking the right approach?'

Finish: Does the government have battery cars all wrong?

Hyundai hybrids: Everything in place for greatness

In a class of its own?

I've been very excited about the potential of Hyundai hybrid cars ever since Hyundai announced its lithium-polymer powered Hybrid Blue Drive at the 2008 LA Auto Show. According to many experts, Hyundai's lithium-polymer technology might give Hyundai an edge in lithium battery production.

And, now that the Hyundai Sonata hybrid is just months away from hitting US dealerships, my excitement is beginning to percolate.

In recent weeks we've learned that the new Sonata is cheaper and lighter than all other vehicles in its class. Moreover, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has now given the Sonata its Top Safety Pick. What more could you want?

A hybrid version with class leading fuel economy at the lowest price in its class, of course.

Recently, Hyundai admitted that although they were late to the hybrid game, they were quickly ramping up their efforts. If Hyundai can offer the new Sonata hybrid for less than the Toyota Camry hybrid while matching or topping the fuel economy of the Ford Fusion hybrid, I'll be a believer - not just in Hyundai's hybrid plans, but their plans for plug-in hybrid leadership as well.

Study: Dynamic plug-ins key to cost-effectiveness

Simply more expensive compared to conventional and hybrid cars, despite energy savings

The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory is prepared to release a new study on ways of achieving plug-in hybrid and EV cost-effectiveness. Like most studies, the NREL study also finds that under essentially every scenario possible, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles simply are not going to be cost-effective compared to conventional and hybrid vehicles.

However, the NREL study concludes that there is a promising new approach to plug-in vehicles called "dynamic plug-ins" that could be a difference maker. Essentially, dynamic plug-ins would recharge while moving, enabling smaller battery packs, yet more electricity consumption.

Of course, such an infrastructure for mobile charging is currently non-existent, but if developed, it would be a game-changing technology for plug-in vehicle cost-effectiveness, even with the limitations of current lithium-ion technologies.

Hyundai ready for plug-in hybrid leadership in 2012

Based off of Blue Will architecture

In addition to announcing that Hyundai is "accelerating" its efforts into hybrid cars, despite being late to the hybrid game, Hyundai also confirmed that it will begin offering plug-in hybrids in 2012.

Hyundai's first hybrid will be the Sonata hybrid later this year.

Despite Hyundai's late hybrid arrival, the automaker believes it could become a real leader in plug-in hybrid technology. No new details on Hyundai's plug-in plans outside of the Blue Will plug-in concept were offered, however, Hyundai did acknowledge today that they believe 20 miles of EV range is the right number for plug-in hybrids.

An interesting little hybrid from Proton

Proton's range extended EV

Outside of this picture and its plug-in hybrid architecture, little is known about this 'city' car from Italdesign Giugiaro and Proton that will debut at the Geneva Motor Show, yet I cannot but help find it very intriguing.

"This is the outcome of several years of study: the solution allows interior spaciousness on a par with that of a segment D saloon despite maintaining the exterior dimensions of a segment A car" explained Giorgetto Giugiaro, Chairman of Italdesign Giugiaro. "You could say that it is a brand new type of car, a new automotive concept where looks are as important as function, ergonomics and comfort, not to mention environmental impact. It is higher than other compact cars to make the best use of interior space; the seat H point is at the same height as the passengers' hips: you do not get down into your car as in a coupe, you do not climb up as in an SUV but you enter in a natural way. Rear seat comfort when you enter and leave the car is absolutely unprecedented, the distance from the front seat is comparable to that of an SUV."

A small, yet comfortable 4-seat plug-in hybrid? Sounds like a smart path toward plug-in cost-effectiveness.

The great EV divide: Taxing the poor for little gain?

If you can afford a $50,000 car, do you really need a $7500 tax credit?

Watch the movies today and a Toyota Prius always seems to turn up. It's the darling of Hollywood, but how long will this relationship last? This is Hollywood, where relationships are measured in weeks, not years.

Besides, soon Hollywoodies can show their green cred by buying any number of more luxurious plug-in vehicles. And, shoot, the government will give them $7500 for saving the world, for looking even greener than some poor wanna-be in a Prius.

But, are these tax credits really helping to scale EV costs down to mainstream pricing? Are they really making the planet that much greener? Even worse, are these tax credits coming at the expense of poor people?

Finish: The great EV divide - Taxing the poor for little gain?

Billion dollar state budget losses: The cost of fuel efficiency

Coming soon to a bridge near you?

In just 15 years Washington State could experience a $3.8 billion state budget shortfall because of a decline in gas tax revenues due to hybrid and electric vehicle adoption according to a new report. That means $3.8 billion less to pay for highway projects and to maintain infrastructure, and that's just one state.

Many other states, as well as the federal government, could experience similar shortfalls.

So, how will states and the feds make up this revenue? Higher gas taxes? M&S tax on all plug-in vehicles?

At some point, despite their foreign-oil and environmental friendliness, won't plug-in vehicles have to pay their fair share of costs for highways and infrastructure maintenance?

BMW Vision plug-in hybrid headed to production

BMW's hybrid monster

BMW has given the go ahead to the Vision plug-in hybrid. According to early reports, BMW will produce about 5,000 - 10,000 Vision plug-ins per year.

The final design will require more solid structure and less glass, but the basic vision of BMW's latest hybrid concept will move forward. That means a 3-cylinder diesel engine range extender, 2 electric motors and a new lithium-polymer battery pack. Combined the new hybrid drive will produce 356 horsepower and well under 5 second 0 to 60 times.

Forget hybrids and EVs: Just make cars smaller and lighter?

Could it be this easy?

According to an Oxford Study the best path to decreasing emissions in autos, in the short term, requires a serious decrease in weight and size.

Over the medium term, however, the study finds that hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius, offer "significant savings" while helping electric drive trains evolve.

While EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles offer interesting potential long term, all have serious issues to overcome in the short to medium term, such as raw material availability.

Finally, first generation biofuels offer some localized uses. Second generation biofuels show more promise, but will still probably be constrained by land availability. Algae shows some probability of overcoming the land availability issue, but massive innovations and breakthroughs are still required.

Global Insight: 20 percent plugged in by 2030

Still a ways to go

Global Insight has released a new white paper on plug-in vehicles according to GreenCarCongress.

The white paper, Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case, forecasts that pure electric cars will achieve a 9.9 percent market share by 2030, while plug-in hybrids will achieve a 8.6 percent market share by 2030.

Like other studies, battery reliability and costs, infrastructure and consumer expectations are the critical issues to overcome to increase plug-in adoption.

Kia teases plug-in hybrid concept

To debut at Chicago Auto Show

Kia is set to show off the Kia Ray plug-in hybrid concept at the Chicago Auto Show according to Cars.com.

While Kia isn't releasing many details, one can probably assume that this Kia plug-in hybrid uses a plug-in version of Hyundai's new Blue hybrid drive.

Toyota strikes major lithium deal

All plug-in ducks in a row

Toyota, via one of its partners, has joined forces with Orocobre Ltd to mine lithium in Argentina according to reports.

Aside from securing a supply of lithium, Toyota is now positioned for greater profit potential in the sale of plug-in vehicles. As it did with its current hybrid cars, Toyota is now laying the foundation for its own supply chain of essential materials for battery-powered vehicles. By keeping a significant percent of its supply chains and battery development in-house, Toyota has been able to foresee profits in battery-powered vehicles where others have not.

Now the hybrid king appears on a path to also become the plug-in hybrid king.

Are the plug-in studies wrong?

Can the Volt revolutionize the auto industry?

I've followed hybrid cars, intently, for a long time, and 5 years ago I would have predicted much greater hybrid penetration than exists today. Thus, when Toyota launched the second generation Prius, I believed auto analysts, such as Anthony Pratt of JD Power, for instance, were crazy when they claimed hybrid market share would barely reach 3 percent by 2010.

Unfortunately, however, Mr. Pratt was right.

Thus, as study after study - and analyst after analyst - has concluded that, barring something extraordinary, plug-in vehicle marketshare is going to grow slowly over the next few decades, I've carefully listened. If correct, these studies and analysts demonstrate that it will be decades before plug-in vehicles have any real impact on reducing either foreign oil dependency or CO2 emissions.

Based on the last 3 decades of US dependence on foreign oil, another 3 decades seems a scary proposition to this hybrid fan.

Therefore, perhaps alternative fuels, such as natural gas, should be considered more seriously in the interim. Likewise, maybe there should be a greater focus on incentives for conventional hybrids, especially ones that can be converted to plug-in hybrids down the road. Or, maybe just a simple tax credit for any car that achieves 50 mpg on the EPA's city cycle is the key.

Then again, maybe all the studies and analysts are wrong. Maybe a major breakthrough in lithium-ion chemistry isn't so far-fetched? Or, maybe gas prices are destined to double in the next decade?

Why might the bulk of the data piling up against mass plug-in adoption in the next decade or two be wrong?

Cadillac XTS: GM's plug-in hybrids live

It's not just about Voltecs?

Hang around some of GM's Chevy Volt team and you'll be corrected every time you call the Volt a plug-in hybrid. While technically true, GM wants the Volt to be seen as an electric vehicle, a range extended electric vehicle.

And there just might be some logic for this distinction. For years GM has contemplated a plug-in hybrid powertrain based off the dual mode hybrid drive train. In fact, GM developed a fully functional Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid based off this technology in the past.

Today, GM debuted another plug-in hybrid, the Cadillac XTS Platinum Plug-in Hybrid Concept. With a 3.6-liter V6 engine and electric motors to drive all four wheels, the XTS platinum will provide about 350 hp. The ever important battery pack can be fully recharged in about five hours from a standard electrical outlet.

More interesting than the car, however, is the possibility that GM's plug-in future is shaping up to be about more than just Voltecs.

10 percent green equals 100 percent greenwashed

A meaningless hybrid?

If you're at the Detroit Auto Show, or following the coverage, you might think the automotive world has really changed. All our troubles are behind and new green vehicles, particularly hybrids and plug-in vehicles, are set to make everything better.

Yet, in ten years less than 10 percent of America's automotive fleet will be hybrid or plug-in - at best - according to almost every automotive analyst and researcher.

Anyway, this year in Detroit the Ford Fusion hybrid was awarded The North American Car of the Year. And it's deserving. Everything about the Fusion hybrid is great, except for sales. Sure, almost 30,000 Ford consumers bought a Fusion hybrid last year, however, over 400,000 Ford consumers bought a gas-guzzling Ford F150.

And next year in Detroit, the Chevy Volt will probably win The North American Car of the Year. Yet, the Volt will probably move even less units than did the Fusion hybrid in its first year. Even more alarming, by 2020, according to GM executives like Bob Lutz, plug-ins like the Volt will still only appeal to about 5 - 10 percent of consumers.

Today, even hybrid king Toyota only offers the third most fuel efficient fleet in America - despite selling 200,000 hybrids - thanks to its many gas-guzzler sales.

Sadly, in tens years the US auto fleet won't be much more fuel efficient than it is today, and green vehicles will still be just a niche, but at least we'll get to enjoy a decade of superb greenwashing along the way.

BCG Study: What it will take for plug-in cost-effectiveness

19 years to recoup Volt costs?

Today, the Boston Consulting Group released a study on plug-in vehicles that suggests, as have many studies recently, that plug-in adoption will by stymied by cost-ineffectiveness for some time.

To achieve critical mass, BCG cites the $250 kwh threshold that automakers claim will be required to make plug-in vehicles cost-effective. Unfortunately, the study finds that without a major breakthrough in lithium chemistry, such a threshold will be impossible to achieve. Currently, according to BCG, such a breakthrough is not on the horizon.

Therefore, while battery costs could decrease by as much as 65 percent by 2020, that would only take battery costs to $400 per kwh.

Without a major battery breakthrough, or a run on oil that pushes costs from $100 per barrel to $375 per barrel, BCG suggests either making the $7500 plug-in tax credit permanent, or increasing the gas tax by 210 percent as ways to make plug-ins cost-competitive.

Lithium battery breakthrough?

50 percent cheaper batteries coming soon?

British company Qinetiq has supposedly developed new lithium-ion batteries with iron sulfide chemistry that can reportedly offer twice as much power density as today's lithium-ion batteries.

More important, however, the new batteries should be half the price of today's NiMH batteries.

If true, hybrid cars would become both more cost-effective and more appealing to a significant percent of new car buyers. Likewise, plug-in hybrids and EVs might only cost an arm instead of an arm and a leg.

Long term consequences: The need for hybridization now?

Still on the road 20 years from now?

America learned many things from the recent Cash for Clunker program, yet one of the biggest takeaways should be the lasting impact of today's technology upon tomorrow's environment. In a fleet of hundreds of millions, old gas-guzzlers from decades ago still impact today's world significantly.

Unfortunately, neither upgraded CAFE requirements nor President Obama's initiative of 1 million plug-in vehicles by 2015 will be able to offset the impact of the many tens of millions of gas-guzzlers that will be produced over the next decade upon America's future. Consequently, the legacy of these vehicles ensures that America will still be very dependent upon petroleum - mostly foreign - for decades to come.

Felix Kramer, founder of the CalCarsInitiative and long time plug-in hybrid driver and advocate, recently told the LATimes that the only way for the US to make any serious, timely dent in oil consumption requires the retrofitting of existing gas-guzzlers into hybrid vehicles.

Moreover, such vehicles could be further converted to plug-in hybrids as the technology becomes cost-effective.

Quite simply, however, mass plug-in vehicle adoption is at least a couple of decades away. Even then, the legacy effects of 100s of millions of gas-guzzlers will still live on for decades longer.

Whether the answer is hybridization or not, based on the last 30 years of US oil consumption, can America really afford several more decades of foreign oil dependence?

Lithium-ion: Only a bridge technology

A couple of Chevy Volt lithium-ion battery packs

So, can lithium-ion batteries make plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles as common as your conventional gas-powered vehicle anytime soon?

Probably not. In fact, lithium-ion batteries are just a bridge technology to real EV penetration according to Argonne Laboratories, a source of much lithium-ion research. To make plug-in vehicles cost-effective enough for the masses, Argonne is focusing on next generation lithium-air batteries.

Still, lithium-air batteries are yet dependent upon numerous technological breakthroughs before becoming a possible reality. Even then, according to Argonne Director Eric Isaacs, it will be ten or twenty years before this technology can be commercially adopted.

Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

The king of hybrid cars

For years now GM has been on the verge of toppling Toyota's hybrid cars according to GM's Bob Lutz. The dual mode hybrid powertrain was to be more sophisticated. The BAS mild hybrid was to be cheaper.

Neither has been competitive.

Might all that change when the Chevy Volt beats Toyota to market with a plug-in hybrid vehicle?

How is that even possible, some might ask? How could GM beat the king of hybrid cars to the plug-in hybrid market?

To answer that question, one needs to step back in time several years.

Finish: Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

Only 17 percent of consumers might pay extra to plug-in

Forever a niche vehicle at best?

Haven't had time to fully read the latest plug-in hybrid report by Pike Research, but I just finished CNET's review. Overall, the report suggests that only 17 percent of US consumers might be willing to pay a premium for plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

And, if plug-ins do 'take off', they will probably be short range plug-in hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid rather than the Chevy Volt, or short range pure EVs, as plug-in vehicles with smaller battery packs will be more cost-viable for the majority of consumers.

As I blogged early this week in Great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug to hybrid cars?, this report seems to also suggest that conventional hybrid cars will make a more appealing buying case to the majority of US consumers for at least the next few decades.

Along those lines, since full hybrids such as the Toyota Prius can so easily be converted into plug-in hybrids, wouldn't such vehicles more immediately tackle global warming and foreign oil dependency today, while providing a 'cash for plug-in conversion' option tomorrow?

The great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug?

Better without the plug?

Depending upon the poll or survey, between 70 and 80 percent of Americans are interested in buying a hybrid car today. Many of them are interested because they are worried about pollution and global warming. Most, however, are interested in hybrid cars because they help reduce foreign oil consumption.

Unfortunately, hybrids are still too expensive, according to these same polls, for most Americans to act upon these various convictions. Most Americans are only willing to pay a little more to 'do the right thing'. Many, perhaps even a majority, are unwilling to pay anything extra for a hybrid, or any other foreign-oil dependency-fighting product.

So, what's the solution? More expensive plug-in hybrid cars and electric vehicles, of course, at least judging by the actions of today's politicians and US automakers.

Finish: The great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug?

Study: Plug-in hybrid impact minimal for decades

Not for the masses

A new study by the US National Research Council finds that plug-in hybrid costs are likely to remain high for decades, therefore, PHEV impact on foreign oil dependency and CO2 emissions is likely to remain low until after 2030.

By 2030, the council expects about 13, but up to 40, million plug-in hybrid cars to be on US roads, dependent upon numerous factors. However, in a fleet of 300 million vehicles, impact upon reducing CO2 emissions and foreign oil dependency before 2030 will be minor. Even to achieve the 13 million mark, 10s of billions in subsidies, minimally, will be required. To hit the higher mark, hundreds of billions will probably be needed.

Overall, the council expects production costs of plug-in hybrid vehicles - mostly in relation to battery technologies - to decrease by about 1/3 over the next decade. Thereafter, cost-savings will probably slow. Thus, it will take decades of cheap electricity to recover the upfront costs of plug-in hybrids compared to gasoline vehicles according to the Council - which will severely impact plug-in hybrid adoption.

Audi exec continues hybrid and EV slam

Still not viable even after a $7500 tax credit?

Yesterday, Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen, continued his attack on the political love affair between D.C. politicians, including President Obama, and electric cars, claiming that plug-ins were probably two decades away from widespread use.

"The 50 percent or so price increase that the Volt represents over a similar gasoline car cannot be offset through the savings from reduced fuel compensation," de Nysschen said. "The only way to offset the extreme premium is through taxpayer-funded subsidies," and that according to de Nysschen, "is not sustainable."

Instead, de Nysschen claims the free market should determine the winners, and according to de Nysschen, clean diesel would be a winner that would significantly reduce foreign oil consumption.

Plug-in Prius in about 2 years

Still basically on track

Toyota will sell a plug-in version of the Toyota Prius in about 2 years. According to Toyota, the plug-in version will be affordable, and the automaker hopes to sell several tens of thousands of these plug-in hybrids.

The new plug-in Prius will offer about 12 - 14 miles of EV range, dependent upon road conditions before needing to utilize its gasoline engine. In contrast, GM's Chevy Volt will offer about 40 miles of EV range, dependent upon driving conditions.

However, the Prius will come with a cheaper price tag than the Volt. Still, initially, the Volt will qualify for a larger federal tax credit - at least the first 200,000 Volts - so pricing might be closer than real world costs thanks to the credits.

Toyota to postpone plug-in Prius?

Not until 2014?

On Monday, Toyota is going to provide an update on when it plans to begin selling plug-in hybrid vehicles.

In previous, official plug-in conversations, Toyota has indicated that its launch date would be 2012, however, there are now rumors that the launch date is going to be moved back to 2014.

I can't believe Toyota would be that stupid. Today, plug-ins aren't about sales, they are about marketing and public relations. If Toyota can't keep pace with the rest of the pack on plug-ins, the PR nightmare than will ensue will be far worse than the losses on producing 10,000 or 20,000 plug-in hybrids per year.

If Toyota hopes to maintain their green mojo, they better bring a plug-in to market by 2011.

New cobalt mine hints at increased hybrid production

Hybrids good for Idaho

Canada's Formation Metals Inc is set to begin operations that should lead to a major cobalt mine in Idaho.

Currently, 27 percent of Cobalt is used in battery technologies, including hybrid cars and some plug-in hybrids.

In the past environmental issues have prevented much new cobalt mining in the US. However, by working with environmental groups in the area and guaranteeing money for pollution mitigation and watershed protection, Formation Metals was able to secure approval from these groups.

When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

Toyota the plug-in naysayer?

During a period of more than 3 years Toyota tested about 150 lithium-powered plug-in Prius hybrids - a fleet still larger than GM's current Chevy Volt fleet - logging more than 1 million real world miles in almost every type of driving condition imaginable. The lithium batteries used proved safe and reliable, but still cost-ineffective.

Next month, Toyota will produce another 350 plug-in hybrids, followed by another 150 early next year, for further testing. This time however, the goal isn't based on safety and reliability. Instead, Toyota's new goal is to provide the most cost-effective plug-in hybrid package based on real world driving needs and conditions.

Over the last few years Toyota has claimed that they would produce plug-in hybrids as soon as the technology was ready, and for Toyota 'ready' means cost-effective in addition to safe and reliable. Coincidentally, Toyota knows a little something about the cost-effectiveness of new technologies.

Today, about 70 - 80 percent of new car customers are interested in purchasing hybrid cars, a segment dominated by Toyota. With such high interest, why is market share still only about 3 percent? According to consumer surveys it all boils down to costs, and consumer surveys on plug-in hybrids tell a similar story.

So, why is Toyota bashed for stating the obvious?

Finish: When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

Fisker beginning to look like the real deal

Its not really about the Karma

Initial production of the Karma plug-in hybrid is sold out. So, if you desire a Karma or Sunset hybrid, you'll have to wait until 2011, when Fisker will begin producing 15,000 of these plug-in hybrid vehicles per year.

But that isn't really what Fisker is about.

By mid-2012, Fisker intends to use all of its Karma to begin production on Project Nina. Sure, that wouldn't be very big news if Fisker was only planning on producing just 15-20,000 Nina hybrids per year.

But, again, that isn't what Fisker is about. Instead, Fisker plans on producing 100,000 Nina plug-in hybrid vehicles.

100,000 vehicles with 50 miles of EV range and another 250 miles of hybrid range?! Are you kidding me? If Fisker can achieve that by mid-2012, it might just become the greatest automotive story ever.

PX-MiEV Plug-in hybrid concept

A whole new take on the MiEV, the PX-MiEV plug-in hybrid concept

Mitsubishi's first electric vehicles will hit the American market in 2011. Hopefully, that will include the very interesting PX-MiEV plug-in hybrid.

The PX is a plug-in series hybrid, or a plug-in parallel hybrid; a two-wheel drive hybrid or a four-wheel drive hybrid. It's all about your current driving conditions. Smart, very smart.

Now, can it be cost-effective?