Getting auto buyers into the "smart garage"

Smart electrification close, yet so far away

Interesting piece in Forbes about how close the "smart garage"needed for the electrification of the automobile is to reality, at least technologically. In terms of costs and public acceptance, however, electrification of the automobile might still be a moon shot away.

The technology for both electric vehicles and a smart garage that gives utilities the ability to "create a power network that not only sends energy to users but draws and stores unused energy from homes, businesses and parked electric vehicles to redistribute" when demand requires, is at hand.

However, the "smart garage" won't be cheap. In fact, it will probably cost hundreds of billions of tax payer dollars, and it will require consumers to completely rethink every aspect of automobile use and ownership.

A new energy paradigm is ours for the taking, will we have the courage to reach for it?

Fisker Karma shifts towards reality

New engineering center in Michigan opened

The $87,000 Fisker Karma plug-in is on schedule to launch in late 2010, and a new engineering center has been opened in Michigan for the effort.

"We're excited to start something up," stated Henrik Fisker, CEO of Fisker Automotive according to AutoWeek. "We're getting a lot of good people in--so that's obviously a big advantage for us."

The 34,000 square foot building will be used for vehicle integration purposes and will employ 200 people to help develop the plug-in hybrid that will be capable of achieving 50 miles of pure electricity, while going from 0-60 in less than 6 seconds - cake eaters are drooling everywhere.

Trinity claims automakers conspiring against plug-ins

The Trinity plug-in hybrid at NAIAS

Back in January, I called the AFS Trinity plug-in hybrid one of the "more interesting vehicles at NAIAS". Using off-the-shelve parts and ultracapacitors, the AFS Trinity promised up to 150 mpg. Of course, this technology had not yet been put through the battery of tests required of OEMs. Likewise, automakers have regularly investigated ultracaps, finding the costs too high.

Nonsense, according AFS. Because the LA Auto Show was going to put the Trinity in the basement - where such concepts are always placed - rather than on the main floor, AFS is pulling out of the show according to Autobloggreen.

"The suppression by the automakers of information about technologies such as this raises serious questions about the judgment, vision, intentions and capabilities of the leadership of these companies. Such conduct by the automakers ... is evidence they are reluctant to embrace solutions they didn't invent."

UK Study - Current grid can handle plug-ins and reduce CO2. Many adoption questions

Many decades before everyone in the UK is plugging in

A joint study by Arup and Cenex for the UK’s Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) and the Department for Transport (DfT) finds that plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles can reduce automotive CO2 emissions by 40 percent per vehicle utilizing the current grid.

Nonetheless, the UK study doesn't believe that plug-ins are ready to take over market share. At today's pace the study expects 2.5% of all cars to connect to the grid by 2020, 11.7% by 2030. If the UK takes aggressive measures to develop plug-ins, then those numbers rise to 4.9% by 2020 and 32% by 2030. Under an extreme scenario - the production of plug-in only cars by 2025 - then the numbers plugging in would be 10% by 2020 and 60% by 2030.

More on the study from GreenCarCongress.

Fast Money talks gas tax

Time for a floor on energy prices?

Dylan Ratigan, the host of CNBC's Fast Money, and contributor on other CNBC shows, brought up a gas tax twice today on Fast Money. The first time was in an interview with Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris. Liveris claimed that a bottom on energy prices is much needed to maintain investment in alternative energies. And, if a gas tax was the best way to ensure that happening, Liveris would be a supporter.

Then, on Fast Money, the gang started talking about alternative energy investments, and the crew also doesn't believe that alternative energies are a great investment when gas prices are low. The idea of expensive plug-in hybrids, for instance, just doesn't make much sense when gas prices are cheap, Jeff Macke joked.

Is it time for a gas tax?

Lithium questions continue for plug-ins

Shortages, costs and environmental concerns

Even before the first mass-produced plug-in hybrid vehicles hit the road, questions continue to mount regarding the viability of lithium to power these new vehicles. Some have questioned lithium supplies. Some have questioned long term costs.

Essentially, if demand outpaces supply for many years, economies of scale won't bring lithium costs down. Instead, the competition for these supplies might increase the costs of lithium batteries. And it isn't just cars, but a rapidly growing electronics industry is also sucking up these supplies. Some are already speculating that lithium will lead to significant political tensions between South America and the US.

And, lately, environmental concerns have also been raised. Check out CNET's latest article for more.

Tax credits for plug-in conversions - Another congressional failure?

More proof Congress is inept?

In my opinion, Congress was very motivated by the Chevy Volt when it came up with its tax credit plan for battery-powered vehicles. GM is an important American company, so this protectionism isn't surprising.

Yet, already, plug-in hybrids and other electric vehicles have caused some auto analysts to question the importance of automakers as we head into the future. If the future of the automobile is electrification, then the most important technology for that future is batteries. Those whom control this technology might just be the drivers of the future's auto industry.

Today, there are hundreds of hybrid vehicles that have been converted into plug-in hybrids via A123Systems - also an American company. Why not reward a company like A123 for these conversions? With hundreds of thousands of hybrids - plug-in conversion ready - on US roads now, A123 would be in a position to become a major player in the electric future TODAY if the government provided tax incentives for conversions.

But why do today what you can always do tomorrow, right?

HOURCAR's Solar PHEV sharing begins

Clean, green car sharing

Minneapolis based HOURCAR is now offering two plug-in hybrid vehicles that utilize solar power to recharge their batteries. Thus, HOURCAR's 650+ members can reserve these plug-in hybrids and burn nothing but solar powered electricity for the first 30 - 40 miles.

Car sharing is a great idea, and solar powered plug-in hybrids make car sharing even better. For urbanites with access to quality public transportation, car sharing could reduce the need to own a car, or to at least drop down to one car.

Now that's out of the box thinking.

Plug-in adoption strongly tied to oil prices

How fast will lithium for autos develop?

What kind of penetration will plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric cars make into world auto sales by 2020?

That depends on the price of oil according to a study funded by Credit Suisse. According to the study, plug-ins will achieve 10 percent world market penetration by 2020 if the price of oil is $100 per barrel. If the price of oil hits $200, then plug-inz could achieve 25 percent penetration.

Cheap hybrids - Only Honda gets it?

Still too expensive?

Hybrid vehicles, and other emergent fuel efficient technologies, are not the cheapest vehicles on the block, especially up front. And, when your 401K, pension plan, and home equity values are racing downward - with gas prices - sticker price becomes even more important.

While plug-in hybrid vehicles have received all of the hype and hope recently, aren't cheap hybrid cars the most efficient path to better fuel economy and technological economies of scale?

Thus far, however, only Honda seems focused on cheap hybrids, even more so than Toyota, although I'm certain Toyota can readjust to cheaper hybrids quite quickly.

Obviously, the development of plug-ins is extremely important, but isn't there great danger in putting off until tomorrow what can be done today?

Forget hybrid batteries, let's focus on composites

Time to move composites out of concepts

Yesterday, I blogged on one of my favorite out of the box thinking autos, the Aptera plug-in hybrid. Yet, it isn't really the plug-in hybrid technology that inspires, instead, its the lightweight and super strong composites that make up the Aptera's body.

And composites aren't just about auto design and lightweight, super strong bodies.

Applied Sciences Inc. and Pyrograf Products Inc. believe that carbon fiber, another composite material, could offer battery-powered vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt, better range by making lithium ion batteries significantly lighter.

The role of composites in the automobile is just emerging. Finish: Forget hybrid batteries, let's focus on composites

Aptera hybrid rocks the box

Can it forever change the auto industry?

Last week I highlighted the Citroen Cactus electric car as an example of out of the box thinking. Still, my favorite out of the box thinking example continues to be Aptera.

While I like the Aptera Typ-1e and its 120 mile range, it's the Typ-1h that really captures my attention. Yet, it's neither the 130 mpg+ the Aptera Typ-1h plug-in hybrid will achieve that most arouses my attention, nor its qualification for car pool lane status.

Instead it's the as-safe-as-any-car ultralight composite body that results in space age designs, only 1500 pounds of weight, and .15 drag coefficient (The Toyota Prius is .26) that rocks my world.

The Aptera demonstrates that everything about the automobile needs to be reinvented. Today's automobile shapes, designs - even materials - have become archaic. We can, and must, do better.

Chrysler's plug-ins a farce?

Vaporware?

In the last month or a so, a number of rumors about Chrysler's plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles culminated in Chrysler showing off a number of such vehicles with the announcement that one would be produced in 2010.

At the same time, however, Chrysler was in discussions with GM about the possibility of GM taking over Chrysler.

Was all of Chrysler's plug-in talk just a ploy to raise the value of its market capitalization? If Cerberus is trying to offload Chrysler, are they really that serious about a very expensive plug-in program?

Why I might buy GM stock

Cuz you have to believe in something

In the past I bought a hybrid car when it really didn't make financial sense. I just don't drive enough. I've spent the last several years building my life around LA's public transportation system.

You see, after 9/11, I decided my life could never be the same. I had to end my foreign oil footprint. Plus, ending foreign oil dependency would have a huge impact on global warming.

Still, I needed a new car. So, I bought a hybrid. Not to gloat. Not because of global warming. Because I believe only technology will end foreign oil dependency.

Today, I'm thinking about buying stock in GM, even though it also might not make financial sense.

Why? Have I lost my mind? FINISH: Why I might buy GM stock

Can hybrids sell natural gas?

Camry hybrid - Fill 'er up with natural gas?

According to proponents, natural gas is cheaper and cleaner than gasoline, and it's not derived from foreign oil. Of course, if demand for natural gas increased drastically, would it still be so cheap?

Regardless, interest in natural gas vehicles isn't very strong. Part of the problem is the lack of refueling stations. There are only about 1,000 natural gas stations across the US. However, home refueling stations, for instance, could alleviate this problem much the same way standard plugs will help plug-in hybrids overcome limited plug-in stations.

Add the fuel economy of hybrid cars, or plug-in hybrids, and natural gas vehicle refueling would be much less common.

Can hybrid vehicles help sell natural gas as a transportation fuel?

Biggest Chevy Volt threat: GM stock. Time for fans to buy?

Don't call the Chevy Volt a concept

Spend any time around GM's top Volt engineers and one thing is clear: this vehicle will happen. Sure there are still questions about production capabilities and costs. Technology, however, will not prevent the Chevy Volt from becoming a reality.

Thus, while Volt sales in and of themselves can't save GM, the Volt is GM's icon for change. Proof that GM can compete, even beat, any other automaker. Proof that GM's engineering, quality, and reliability are just as good as any other automaker.

Unfortunately, despite loans, Wall Street credit bailouts, and huge plug-in tax incentives for the Volt, those in the stock market are starting to believe that the Volt can't come quick enough to save GM. Hence, GM's stock price has touched lows not seen in several decades.

The other day I read a GM-Volt post that finished with: Long live the US, GM and the Volt. Well, if you believe that then isn't it time to put your money where you mouth is and buy GM stock?

Mitsubishi adds plug-in hybrid to plug-in portfolio

EVs and PHEVs

Mitsubishi has now added plans to develop plug-in hybrid vehicles in addition to its previously stated plans to develop electric vehicles such as the iMiev according to GCC.

"The development of a plug-in hybrid comes on the heels of the auto maker’s plan to launch a mass-produced electric vehicle [the iMiEV] next year in Japan... Masuko noted that the plug-in hybrid will be better suited for longer distances than the electric car."

Volvo bringing diesel hybrids to US in 2012, plug-in soon after

Can diesel work in America?

Just because the king of hybrid cars, Toyota, isn't interested in bringing diesel hybrids to the US, doesn't mean all other automakers agree.

According to Mototrend, Volvo will start bringing diesel hybrids to the US in 2012. With a focus on larger SUVs, crossovers, and sedans, Volvo will utilize a 5-cylinder turbodiesel motor to drive the front wheels and an electric motor to power the rear wheels. This full hybrid configuration will enable Volvo's diesel hybrid vehicles to function purely on electric power at low speeds.

Likewise, Volvo will also bring diesel plug-in hybrid vehicles to the states shortly thereafter.

No Big 3 Prius challengers in Paris?

The only Prius challenger for years?

Duh? The Chevy Volt, right?

Not any time soon. Maybe not ever.

A significant percent of Americans simply can't plug-in, won't want to plug-in, or won't want to front the extra money up front for the benefits of electric vehicles.

Ultimately, there will be plenty of consumers for both the Toyota Prius and the Chevy Volt, but they are two very different technologies for two different consumer segments.

Yet, Toyota is also developing plug-in hybrids to challenge the Volt. Are GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrids really a challenge to the Prius? Are 20,000 Ford Focus hybrids a challenge to the Prius? And what about Chrysler?

In recent months, both Hyundai and Honda have committed to selling 100,000's of thousands of hybrid cars each, per year, within the next several years. Shouldn't the Big 3 be doing the same?

Audi's Paris plug-in hybrid concept demonstrates plug-in variability

Parallel plug-in hybrids aren't dead yet

Audi is debuting an interesting plug-in hybrid today at the Paris Auto Show.

The Audi A1 Sportback plug-in hybrid can achieve up to 62.4 miles in pure electric mode according to reports. However, the Audi A1 can also draw power from a conventional engine or, in boost mode, the Audi A1 can use both the conventional engine and the electric motor.

The range of this vehicle seems to demonstrate that series plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevy Volt, might not be the dominate plug-in hybrid technology for EV fans. Not only would the Audi A1 provide more electric range than the Volt, it would also offer sportier performance.

Of course, this Audi plug-in hybrid is still just a concept. Yet, it seems to hint that calling a winner in the plug-in hybrid segment is premature.

Revised plug-in tax credit in new bailout bill

$4,168 - $7,500 tax credit for plug-ins

If the new bailout package in Congress is approved on Friday, it will also include a new plug-in tax credit.

Plug-in vehicles weighing under 10,000 pounds with at least a 4 kWh battery pack will qualify for a $4,168 tax credit. The value of the credit will scale up to a maximum of $7,500 for each extra kWh of battery capacity.

Once automakers, collectively, sell 250,000 plug-ins in one year, the credit will expire.

Chevy Volt: Can it change perception of GM?

The Volt made a recent publicity stop at NASCAR

For many Americans, the Chevy Volt has become the savior of the US auto industry. A made in America foreign oil dependency freedom fighter. And, one day, it might just be that, but not any time soon.

In the interim, however, can it change the perception of GM and its ability to build quality automobiles?

Finish: Chevy Volt: Can it change perception of GM?

Chrysler's EVs more developed than Volt?

A Dodge plug-in concept at NAIAS 2007

Has Chrysler killed Chevy Volt hype?

Since the Volt debut in 2007, GM has reiterated over and over how they were accomplishing something almost inconceivable. Concept to reality in little more than 3 years. And, not just your standard concept. A range extended electric vehicle.

Yet, all the while, Chrysler has been quietly keeping pace. Of course, that statement isn't fully true. Chrysler's plug-in vehicles probably won't be launched as unique plug-in only models, such as the Volt. So, Chrysler's results are not as impressive.

Nevertheless, Chrysler's quick pace demonstrates that plug-ins aren't that hard to build. The real issue for both Chrysler and GM is, as it has always been, can these vehicles be powered with reliable, cost effective batteries that can be economically produced in great numbers? Unfortunately, that still won't be known even in late 2010 when these vehicles launch.

Plug-ins: Much ado about fuel economy credits?

Tesla hoping to sell its CAFE credits

Foreign oil dependency is choking America, literally, to death. Thus, I've advocated for hybrid cars, even when they don't make financial sense. It's an investment in the future and next generation technologies, such as plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Fortunately, these days, every automaker is planning some kind of plug-in, and that's a good thing. Yet, I worry.

In recent weeks, the EPA designation of plug-ins has become an important issue. Plug-in vehicles, like the flex-fuel credits of today, will provide important fuel economy credits for automakers, as flex fuel credits expire.

So, if GM only sells 60,000 Chevy Volts in 2013, those Volts will provide a significant number of fuel economy credits for GM's less efficient vehicles. Today, just a few flex fuel credits per vehicle enable automakers to, essentially, violate CAFE without penalty.

Thus, despite good intentions, flex fuel credits have increased US foreign oil dependency. And, particularly if gas prices decline a few quarters over the next few years, it seems plug-in credits could do the same. Is it time to end all fuel economy loopholes, I mean credits?

Plug-in Ratings: Both Congress and the EPA confused

What's the value of plugging in?

When tax credits for plug-ins become available, neither electric range nor fuel economy will matter, only battery capacity - a move that appears to strongly favor GM's Chevy Volt versus the Toyota Prius.

However, when it comes to the EPA and CAFE, it's fuel economy that will matter. And that is the standard that Congress will judge automaker fleet fuel economy.

So why the double standard? Shouldn't there be just one way to judge plug-ins?

Dan Foley, of the Automotive X-Prize has been suggesting MPGe as a better rating "MPGe is a measure that expresses fuel economy in terms of the energy content of a gallon of gasoline, asking how much energy was delivered to the vehicle, and how far did it go."

We all want plug-in hybrids, but can we afford them?

Honda has it right?

Plug-in vehicles. It's the new darling of the automotive world. It's the future. The saviour of the US auto industry. Still, when does this future make cost-effective sense for BOTH consumers and automakers?

For the past few months Hybridcarblog has run a survey asking 'What is the most you would pay for the Chevy Volt'?. Almost half those responding, 47 percent, don't want to pay more than $20,000 for a such vehicle. Another 40 percent won't pay more than $30,000.

Yet, a vehicle like the Chevy Volt will probably cost about $40,000. Certainly, at first, a $7,500 plug-in tax credit will help. Still, how likely is that after the credit expires that GM can sell the Volt for $30,000 AND make a profit?

Is the plug-in revolution really just right around the corner? In what year will the first automaker make a million plug-in vehicles per year? Are cheap hybrid cars, such as the Honda Insight, a much better solution in the next 10 years than plug-ins?

15 percent by 2035: The reality of plug-in hybrids

How long before all of us drive something like the Volt?

All day long I've been working on a story that I titled 'Fool's Gold: The electrification of the automobile', that I just haven't been able to finish. Now before EV fans go crazy, I'm not arguing against electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles. I'm arguing the reason for these vehicles is to get off oil, especially foreign oil, and to reduce our carbon footprint.

Thus, in my opinion, conventional hybrid cars, for the next decade or two, are every bit as important as plug-ins if we want to act as quickly as possible to achieve this change. Waiting until all of us drive an EV or PHEV is simply fool's gold.

As I was taking a break from rereading my draft - yes, I actually edit my posts sometimes, sometimes - the folks over at Yale Environment 360 sent me an e-mail with a link to the one of their posts, Revenge of the Electric Car.

There isn't much in this piece that hasn't been covered by this blog. Nonetheless, it is a very nice summary of the state of electric cars and other plug-in hybrid vehicles. However, one quote really stuck out.

“It’s hard to overestimate the inertia of the old system, and how resistant many people are to change,” says Tom Turrentine, head of the Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Research Center at the University of California at Davis. A recent MIT study on the future of the car suggested plug-in vehicles might capture, at best, 15 percent of the light-duty vehicle market (passenger cars and SUVs) by 2035.

$7,500 plug-in hybrid tax credit passes Senate - Too favorable to Volt?

Only about battery capacity, not actual EV range, nor real world fuel economy?

The Senate has passed a new tax bill that will provide tax credits for plug-in hybrid vehicles ranging from $2,500 - $7,500, depending on the vehicle's battery capacity. To be eligible for the credit, such plug-in vehicles must store at least 6 kWh's of electricity.

So, battery capacity, not actual EV range nor real world fuel economy, is how Congress judges plug-in quality? Does that really make sense?

Finish: $7,500 plug-in hybrid tax credit passes Senate - Too favorable to Volt?

Chrysler to plug-in into the future in 2010

A wrangler plug-in vehicle

Behind the Wheel has a great piece this morning on Chrysler's new plug-in vehicles. Yesterday, Phil LeBeau was able to drive a couple of Chrysler plug-in prototypes, such as the Jeep Wrangler plug-in hybrid that functions very much like GM's Chevy Volt. LeBeau was also able to test drive the Dodge EV sports car, an all electric vehicle that left LeBeau impressed.

Even more surprising, Chrysler intends to roll out some of these vehicles by 2010.

Check it out. There is supposed to be a link to view all these test drives, but it wasn't working when I made this post.

Chrysler to update dealers on plug-ins

The Dodge Zeo - One of three plug-in concepts Chrysler showed in Detroit

Next week, according to reports, Chrysler will provide dealers with "insight into business strategies" for the future that includes Chrysler's next generation plug-in hybrid vehicles. No further details are available.

While interesting, it seems hard to believe that Chrysler could be anywhere close to where GM is today with such electric vehicles, which means many more years for Chrysler to even catch up to GM.

House slices into plug-in hybrid tax credit

$3000 - $5000

The House of Representatives has passed a tax credit for plug-in hybrid vehicles as part of H.R 6899. The credit offers $3000 for 5 kWh plug-ins. For every kWh above 5, the credit offers an additional $200 up to a maximum of $5000. Like the same tax credit system that gave Toyota a $3,000 credit for the Prius, the total full credits would be 60,000, then the credit would be cut in half and then quartered.

Still, no reason to get too excited about the details yet. The Senate has yet to put its finger prints on this bill.

Why 40 is the Chevy Volt's Magic Number

GM's top execs flank the Volt at GM's Centennial Celebration

40 miles of electricity. Sounds pretty arbitrary, right? Wrong.

Yesterday, I wrote Volt EV Range: Is 40 enough? Would 80 be better? Should GM increase the Volt's EV range as battery technology develops?

More important, can the Chevy Volt really achieve 40 miles of electric range?

Finish: Why 40 miles is the Chevy Volt's magic number

Plug-in Tax Credits: Toyota in shock?

To offer less than 6 kWh of electricity?

Yesterday, Robert Wimmer, the National Manager of Energy and Environmental Research for Toyota Motor North America, lobbied the Senate Energy and National Resources committee not to pass new legislation that will give tax breaks to the Chevrolet Volt, or other plug-in hybrids with batteries that hold at least six kilowatt-hours of electricity.

"Toyota believes this approach is counterproductive," said Wimmer in a statement before the committee. "It will discourage manufacturers from developing and consumers from purchasing 'blended' plug-ins that are affordable to the greatest number of consumers."

So, the plug-in Prius won't offer 6 kWh worth of electricity? Is it even worth it to make a plug-in hybrid if it doesn't offer at least 6 kWh? Has GM's Volt actually rattled Toyota?

Chevy Volt Fuel Economy in Question

Volt fuel economy with the AC on?

How is the EPA going to assess the fuel economy of the Chevy Volt? That's a good question, as the EPA doesn't have a methodology yet for plug-in hybrid vehicles. When they do, will it be accurate?

According to GM, the Chevy Volt will achieve 40 miles of electric power before using gasoline to generate new electricity to power the Volt. But, what happens if you drive fast? Accelerate fast? What if you are a heavy AC user?

Finish: Chevy Volt fuel economy in question

Lithium fantasies power plug-in hybrids?

Hymotion lithium battery pack in Prius

Tien Duong of the U.S. Department of Energy told a conference at the ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY that costs and life of lithium batteries are still a major obstacle to cost-effective plug-in hybrid vehicles.

"Life means 10 years, plus. For hybrids we know (their batteries) last 10 years plus. For the PHEV (plug-in electric vehicle), we don't know," Duong said.

"One of the phenomenons that cuts short the life of the battery is power. You may have a lot of energy, but if you run out of power, that's no good," he said.

30 miles of electricity for Ford plug-in, 40 for Prius?

Ready now?

I was