Billion dollar state budget losses: The cost of fuel efficiency

Coming soon to a bridge near you?

In just 15 years Washington State could experience a $3.8 billion state budget shortfall because of a decline in gas tax revenues due to hybrid and electric vehicle adoption according to a new report. That means $3.8 billion less to pay for highway projects and to maintain infrastructure, and that's just one state.

Many other states, as well as the federal government, could experience similar shortfalls.

So, how will states and the feds make up this revenue? Higher gas taxes? M&S tax on all plug-in vehicles?

At some point, despite their foreign-oil and environmental friendliness, won't plug-in vehicles have to pay their fair share of costs for highways and infrastructure maintenance?

BMW Vision plug-in hybrid headed to production

BMW's hybrid monster

BMW has given the go ahead to the Vision plug-in hybrid. According to early reports, BMW will produce about 5,000 - 10,000 Vision plug-ins per year.

The final design will require more solid structure and less glass, but the basic vision of BMW's latest hybrid concept will move forward. That means a 3-cylinder diesel engine range extender, 2 electric motors and a new lithium-polymer battery pack. Combined the new hybrid drive will produce 356 horsepower and well under 5 second 0 to 60 times.

Forget hybrids and EVs: Just make cars smaller and lighter?

Could it be this easy?

According to an Oxford Study the best path to decreasing emissions in autos, in the short term, requires a serious decrease in weight and size.

Over the medium term, however, the study finds that hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius, offer "significant savings" while helping electric drive trains evolve.

While EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles offer interesting potential long term, all have serious issues to overcome in the short to medium term, such as raw material availability.

Finally, first generation biofuels offer some localized uses. Second generation biofuels show more promise, but will still probably be constrained by land availability. Algae shows some probability of overcoming the land availability issue, but massive innovations and breakthroughs are still required.

Global Insight: 20 percent plugged in by 2030

Still a ways to go

Global Insight has released a new white paper on plug-in vehicles according to GreenCarCongress.

The white paper, Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case, forecasts that pure electric cars will achieve a 9.9 percent market share by 2030, while plug-in hybrids will achieve a 8.6 percent market share by 2030.

Like other studies, battery reliability and costs, infrastructure and consumer expectations are the critical issues to overcome to increase plug-in adoption.

Kia teases plug-in hybrid concept

To debut at Chicago Auto Show

Kia is set to show off the Kia Ray plug-in hybrid concept at the Chicago Auto Show according to Cars.com.

While Kia isn't releasing many details, one can probably assume that this Kia plug-in hybrid uses a plug-in version of Hyundai's new Blue hybrid drive.

Toyota strikes major lithium deal

All plug-in ducks in a row

Toyota, via one of its partners, has joined forces with Orocobre Ltd to mine lithium in Argentina according to reports.

Aside from securing a supply of lithium, Toyota is now positioned for greater profit potential in the sale of plug-in vehicles. As it did with its current hybrid cars, Toyota is now laying the foundation for its own supply chain of essential materials for battery-powered vehicles. By keeping a significant percent of its supply chains and battery development in-house, Toyota has been able to foresee profits in battery-powered vehicles where others have not.

Now the hybrid king appears on a path to also become the plug-in hybrid king.

Are the plug-in studies wrong?

Can the Volt revolutionize the auto industry?

I've followed hybrid cars, intently, for a long time, and 5 years ago I would have predicted much greater hybrid penetration than exists today. Thus, when Toyota launched the second generation Prius, I believed auto analysts, such as Anthony Pratt of JD Power, for instance, were crazy when they claimed hybrid market share would barely reach 3 percent by 2010.

Unfortunately, however, Mr. Pratt was right.

Thus, as study after study - and analyst after analyst - has concluded that, barring something extraordinary, plug-in vehicle marketshare is going to grow slowly over the next few decades, I've carefully listened. If correct, these studies and analysts demonstrate that it will be decades before plug-in vehicles have any real impact on reducing either foreign oil dependency or CO2 emissions.

Based on the last 3 decades of US dependence on foreign oil, another 3 decades seems a scary proposition to this hybrid fan.

Therefore, perhaps alternative fuels, such as natural gas, should be considered more seriously in the interim. Likewise, maybe there should be a greater focus on incentives for conventional hybrids, especially ones that can be converted to plug-in hybrids down the road. Or, maybe just a simple tax credit for any car that achieves 50 mpg on the EPA's city cycle is the key.

Then again, maybe all the studies and analysts are wrong. Maybe a major breakthrough in lithium-ion chemistry isn't so far-fetched? Or, maybe gas prices are destined to double in the next decade?

Why might the bulk of the data piling up against mass plug-in adoption in the next decade or two be wrong?

Cadillac XTS: GM's plug-in hybrids live

It's not just about Voltecs?

Hang around some of GM's Chevy Volt team and you'll be corrected every time you call the Volt a plug-in hybrid. While technically true, GM wants the Volt to be seen as an electric vehicle, a range extended electric vehicle.

And there just might be some logic for this distinction. For years GM has contemplated a plug-in hybrid powertrain based off the dual mode hybrid drive train. In fact, GM developed a fully functional Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid based off this technology in the past.

Today, GM debuted another plug-in hybrid, the Cadillac XTS Platinum Plug-in Hybrid Concept. With a 3.6-liter V6 engine and electric motors to drive all four wheels, the XTS platinum will provide about 350 hp. The ever important battery pack can be fully recharged in about five hours from a standard electrical outlet.

More interesting than the car, however, is the possibility that GM's plug-in future is shaping up to be about more than just Voltecs.

10 percent green equals 100 percent greenwashed

A meaningless hybrid?

If you're at the Detroit Auto Show, or following the coverage, you might think the automotive world has really changed. All our troubles are behind and new green vehicles, particularly hybrids and plug-in vehicles, are set to make everything better.

Yet, in ten years less than 10 percent of America's automotive fleet will be hybrid or plug-in - at best - according to almost every automotive analyst and researcher.

Anyway, this year in Detroit the Ford Fusion hybrid was awarded The North American Car of the Year. And it's deserving. Everything about the Fusion hybrid is great, except for sales. Sure, almost 30,000 Ford consumers bought a Fusion hybrid last year, however, over 400,000 Ford consumers bought a gas-guzzling Ford F150.

And next year in Detroit, the Chevy Volt will probably win The North American Car of the Year. Yet, the Volt will probably move even less units than did the Fusion hybrid in its first year. Even more alarming, by 2020, according to GM executives like Bob Lutz, plug-ins like the Volt will still only appeal to about 5 - 10 percent of consumers.

Today, even hybrid king Toyota only offers the third most fuel efficient fleet in America - despite selling 200,000 hybrids - thanks to its many gas-guzzler sales.

Sadly, in tens years the US auto fleet won't be much more fuel efficient than it is today, and green vehicles will still be just a niche, but at least we'll get to enjoy a decade of superb greenwashing along the way.

BCG Study: What it will take for plug-in cost-effectiveness

19 years to recoup Volt costs?

Today, the Boston Consulting Group released a study on plug-in vehicles that suggests, as have many studies recently, that plug-in adoption will by stymied by cost-ineffectiveness for some time.

To achieve critical mass, BCG cites the $250 kwh threshold that automakers claim will be required to make plug-in vehicles cost-effective. Unfortunately, the study finds that without a major breakthrough in lithium chemistry, such a threshold will be impossible to achieve. Currently, according to BCG, such a breakthrough is not on the horizon.

Therefore, while battery costs could decrease by as much as 65 percent by 2020, that would only take battery costs to $400 per kwh.

Without a major battery breakthrough, or a run on oil that pushes costs from $100 per barrel to $375 per barrel, BCG suggests either making the $7500 plug-in tax credit permanent, or increasing the gas tax by 210 percent as ways to make plug-ins cost-competitive.

Lithium battery breakthrough?

50 percent cheaper batteries coming soon?

British company Qinetiq has supposedly developed new lithium-ion batteries with iron sulfide chemistry that can reportedly offer twice as much power density as today's lithium-ion batteries.

More important, however, the new batteries should be half the price of today's NiMH batteries.

If true, hybrid cars would become both more cost-effective and more appealing to a significant percent of new car buyers. Likewise, plug-in hybrids and EVs might only cost an arm instead of an arm and a leg.

Long term consequences: The need for hybridization now?

Still on the road 20 years from now?

America learned many things from the recent Cash for Clunker program, yet one of the biggest takeaways should be the lasting impact of today's technology upon tomorrow's environment. In a fleet of hundreds of millions, old gas-guzzlers from decades ago still impact today's world significantly.

Unfortunately, neither upgraded CAFE requirements nor President Obama's initiative of 1 million plug-in vehicles by 2015 will be able to offset the impact of the many tens of millions of gas-guzzlers that will be produced over the next decade upon America's future. Consequently, the legacy of these vehicles ensures that America will still be very dependent upon petroleum - mostly foreign - for decades to come.

Felix Kramer, founder of the CalCarsInitiative and long time plug-in hybrid driver and advocate, recently told the LATimes that the only way for the US to make any serious, timely dent in oil consumption requires the retrofitting of existing gas-guzzlers into hybrid vehicles.

Moreover, such vehicles could be further converted to plug-in hybrids as the technology becomes cost-effective.

Quite simply, however, mass plug-in vehicle adoption is at least a couple of decades away. Even then, the legacy effects of 100s of millions of gas-guzzlers will still live on for decades longer.

Whether the answer is hybridization or not, based on the last 30 years of US oil consumption, can America really afford several more decades of foreign oil dependence?

Lithium-ion: Only a bridge technology

A couple of Chevy Volt lithium-ion battery packs

So, can lithium-ion batteries make plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles as common as your conventional gas-powered vehicle anytime soon?

Probably not. In fact, lithium-ion batteries are just a bridge technology to real EV penetration according to Argonne Laboratories, a source of much lithium-ion research. To make plug-in vehicles cost-effective enough for the masses, Argonne is focusing on next generation lithium-air batteries.

Still, lithium-air batteries are yet dependent upon numerous technological breakthroughs before becoming a possible reality. Even then, according to Argonne Director Eric Isaacs, it will be ten or twenty years before this technology can be commercially adopted.

Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

The king of hybrid cars

For years now GM has been on the verge of toppling Toyota's hybrid cars according to GM's Bob Lutz. The dual mode hybrid powertrain was to be more sophisticated. The BAS mild hybrid was to be cheaper.

Neither has been competitive.

Might all that change when the Chevy Volt beats Toyota to market with a plug-in hybrid vehicle?

How is that even possible, some might ask? How could GM beat the king of hybrid cars to the plug-in hybrid market?

To answer that question, one needs to step back in time several years.

Finish: Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

Only 17 percent of consumers might pay extra to plug-in

Forever a niche vehicle at best?

Haven't had time to fully read the latest plug-in hybrid report by Pike Research, but I just finished CNET's review. Overall, the report suggests that only 17 percent of US consumers might be willing to pay a premium for plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

And, if plug-ins do 'take off', they will probably be short range plug-in hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid rather than the Chevy Volt, or short range pure EVs, as plug-in vehicles with smaller battery packs will be more cost-viable for the majority of consumers.

As I blogged early this week in Great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug to hybrid cars?, this report seems to also suggest that conventional hybrid cars will make a more appealing buying case to the majority of US consumers for at least the next few decades.

Along those lines, since full hybrids such as the Toyota Prius can so easily be converted into plug-in hybrids, wouldn't such vehicles more immediately tackle global warming and foreign oil dependency today, while providing a 'cash for plug-in conversion' option tomorrow?

The great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug?

Better without the plug?

Depending upon the poll or survey, between 70 and 80 percent of Americans are interested in buying a hybrid car today. Many of them are interested because they are worried about pollution and global warming. Most, however, are interested in hybrid cars because they help reduce foreign oil consumption.

Unfortunately, hybrids are still too expensive, according to these same polls, for most Americans to act upon these various convictions. Most Americans are only willing to pay a little more to 'do the right thing'. Many, perhaps even a majority, are unwilling to pay anything extra for a hybrid, or any other foreign-oil dependency-fighting product.

So, what's the solution? More expensive plug-in hybrid cars and electric vehicles, of course, at least judging by the actions of today's politicians and US automakers.

Finish: The great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug?

Study: Plug-in hybrid impact minimal for decades

Not for the masses

A new study by the US National Research Council finds that plug-in hybrid costs are likely to remain high for decades, therefore, PHEV impact on foreign oil dependency and CO2 emissions is likely to remain low until after 2030.

By 2030, the council expects about 13, but up to 40, million plug-in hybrid cars to be on US roads, dependent upon numerous factors. However, in a fleet of 300 million vehicles, impact upon reducing CO2 emissions and foreign oil dependency before 2030 will be minor. Even to achieve the 13 million mark, 10s of billions in subsidies, minimally, will be required. To hit the higher mark, hundreds of billions will probably be needed.

Overall, the council expects production costs of plug-in hybrid vehicles - mostly in relation to battery technologies - to decrease by about 1/3 over the next decade. Thereafter, cost-savings will probably slow. Thus, it will take decades of cheap electricity to recover the upfront costs of plug-in hybrids compared to gasoline vehicles according to the Council - which will severely impact plug-in hybrid adoption.

Audi exec continues hybrid and EV slam

Still not viable even after a $7500 tax credit?

Yesterday, Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen, continued his attack on the political love affair between D.C. politicians, including President Obama, and electric cars, claiming that plug-ins were probably two decades away from widespread use.

"The 50 percent or so price increase that the Volt represents over a similar gasoline car cannot be offset through the savings from reduced fuel compensation," de Nysschen said. "The only way to offset the extreme premium is through taxpayer-funded subsidies," and that according to de Nysschen, "is not sustainable."

Instead, de Nysschen claims the free market should determine the winners, and according to de Nysschen, clean diesel would be a winner that would significantly reduce foreign oil consumption.

Plug-in Prius in about 2 years

Still basically on track

Toyota will sell a plug-in version of the Toyota Prius in about 2 years. According to Toyota, the plug-in version will be affordable, and the automaker hopes to sell several tens of thousands of these plug-in hybrids.

The new plug-in Prius will offer about 12 - 14 miles of EV range, dependent upon road conditions before needing to utilize its gasoline engine. In contrast, GM's Chevy Volt will offer about 40 miles of EV range, dependent upon driving conditions.

However, the Prius will come with a cheaper price tag than the Volt. Still, initially, the Volt will qualify for a larger federal tax credit - at least the first 200,000 Volts - so pricing might be closer than real world costs thanks to the credits.

Toyota to postpone plug-in Prius?

Not until 2014?

On Monday, Toyota is going to provide an update on when it plans to begin selling plug-in hybrid vehicles.

In previous, official plug-in conversations, Toyota has indicated that its launch date would be 2012, however, there are now rumors that the launch date is going to be moved back to 2014.

I can't believe Toyota would be that stupid. Today, plug-ins aren't about sales, they are about marketing and public relations. If Toyota can't keep pace with the rest of the pack on plug-ins, the PR nightmare than will ensue will be far worse than the losses on producing 10,000 or 20,000 plug-in hybrids per year.

If Toyota hopes to maintain their green mojo, they better bring a plug-in to market by 2011.

New cobalt mine hints at increased hybrid production

Hybrids good for Idaho

Canada's Formation Metals Inc is set to begin operations that should lead to a major cobalt mine in Idaho.

Currently, 27 percent of Cobalt is used in battery technologies, including hybrid cars and some plug-in hybrids.

In the past environmental issues have prevented much new cobalt mining in the US. However, by working with environmental groups in the area and guaranteeing money for pollution mitigation and watershed protection, Formation Metals was able to secure approval from these groups.

When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

Toyota the plug-in naysayer?

During a period of more than 3 years Toyota tested about 150 lithium-powered plug-in Prius hybrids - a fleet still larger than GM's current Chevy Volt fleet - logging more than 1 million real world miles in almost every type of driving condition imaginable. The lithium batteries used proved safe and reliable, but still cost-ineffective.

Next month, Toyota will produce another 350 plug-in hybrids, followed by another 150 early next year, for further testing. This time however, the goal isn't based on safety and reliability. Instead, Toyota's new goal is to provide the most cost-effective plug-in hybrid package based on real world driving needs and conditions.

Over the last few years Toyota has claimed that they would produce plug-in hybrids as soon as the technology was ready, and for Toyota 'ready' means cost-effective in addition to safe and reliable. Coincidentally, Toyota knows a little something about the cost-effectiveness of new technologies.

Today, about 70 - 80 percent of new car customers are interested in purchasing hybrid cars, a segment dominated by Toyota. With such high interest, why is market share still only about 3 percent? According to consumer surveys it all boils down to costs, and consumer surveys on plug-in hybrids tell a similar story.

So, why is Toyota bashed for stating the obvious?

Finish: When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

Fisker beginning to look like the real deal

Its not really about the Karma

Initial production of the Karma plug-in hybrid is sold out. So, if you desire a Karma or Sunset hybrid, you'll have to wait until 2011, when Fisker will begin producing 15,000 of these plug-in hybrid vehicles per year.

But that isn't really what Fisker is about.

By mid-2012, Fisker intends to use all of its Karma to begin production on Project Nina. Sure, that wouldn't be very big news if Fisker was only planning on producing just 15-20,000 Nina hybrids per year.

But, again, that isn't what Fisker is about. Instead, Fisker plans on producing 100,000 Nina plug-in hybrid vehicles.

100,000 vehicles with 50 miles of EV range and another 250 miles of hybrid range?! Are you kidding me? If Fisker can achieve that by mid-2012, it might just become the greatest automotive story ever.

PX-MiEV Plug-in hybrid concept

A whole new take on the MiEV, the PX-MiEV plug-in hybrid concept

Mitsubishi's first electric vehicles will hit the American market in 2011. Hopefully, that will include the very interesting PX-MiEV plug-in hybrid.

The PX is a plug-in series hybrid, or a plug-in parallel hybrid; a two-wheel drive hybrid or a four-wheel drive hybrid. It's all about your current driving conditions. Smart, very smart.

Now, can it be cost-effective?

Audi e-tron

Cool car that most can't afford

What can you say? Luxury vehicles aren't for most of us, regardless of their powertrain. Still, any automaker's green efforts should be embraced to some extent, right?

Hybrid Leadership: Why not from BMW?

BMW's Efficient Dynamics Vision plug-in hybrid

On the eve of press days for the LA Auto Show, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger used a press conference to push his - and California's - vision of a new, cleaner and greener future.

And what better vision forward than the BMW Vision plug-in hybrid? 31 miles of EV range coupled with a total range of 431 miles sounds like a smart vision forward for BMW.

Obviously, the Vision is not a car for the masses. BMWs aren't cars far the masses. In fact, the Vision will probably never become a reality, however, its plug-in hybrid architecture sure could.

Still, it's BMW, right? What do they care about fuel economy?

Well, surprisingly, BMW's fleet is actually significantly more fuel efficient than any Big 3 fleet.

Besides, plug-in vehicles are going to be expensive to start, so BMW plug-in hybrids seem like a perfect fit. In fact, any BMW hybrid seem a very smart move. Inevitably, if people are going to spend a lot of money buying BMW vehicles over the next decade, what's wrong with making as many of those sales as possible hybrid sales?

How smart will the grid need to be for plug-ins?

Is the grid ready for plug-ins?

The Department of Energy is awarding $620 million for smart grid demonstration projects. And that's fine. Of course, inevitably, one must ask how much will full scale implementation cost?

Numerous estimates thus far have put the cost at hundreds of billions. Yet, even some utilities have claimed that very little smart grid technology - if any - is necessary to get plug-ins going. Of course, that's a very regional issue.

Nonetheless, what is the future of the plug-in vehicle?

Many studies, for instance, have suggested that the most efficient plug-in vehicles are either short range plug-ins hybrids, or pure EVs with swappable batteries. If market forces eventually dictate this reality, how much of a smart grid is really needed to electrify America's transportation system?

Ultimately, is the plug-in revolution - a majority of market share - totally dependent upon hundreds of billions of smart grid technology? Or are plug-ins only one variable in the need for a new grid? Also, is there any danger this might lead to an over-centralized and monopolized energy infrastructure?

Volt set to charge GM's IPO

Time to put the past to rest?

Will next year provide a big boost in auto sales? The kind of boost that can turn losses into profits for much of the US auto industry? The kind of sales that could make a GM IPO at the end of 2010 enticing to investors?

Probably not according to a forecast from Fitch Ratings. While there should be a small bump upwards in US sales - around 11.1 million total unit sales - it probably won't be big enough to result in the cash flow needed to fix GM's balance sheet.

But, could the Chevy Volt be a wild card in that forecast?

What better way to head into an IPO than with positive buzz, especially the kind of green and foreign-oil fighting buzz that only the official release of the Chevy Volt can provide? It's unique. It's next gen technology. It's green and it's ready to launch 'at the end of 2010'.

Finish: Chevy Volt set to charge GM's IPO

After 1 million miles, interesting plug-in hybrid results

A Prius being converted into a plug-in hybrid

The Department of Energy has now logged more than 1 million testing miles with their fleet of plug-in hybrids, and they've collected some interesting data.

First, driver behavior, charging frequency and environmental conditions have significant impact on plug-in hybrid efficiency. Second, driving patterns suggest per day driving range is much less than expected. Third, forgetting to plug-in is common and should be expected. And finally, non-charging energy use could be significant.

In Best plug-in vehicles: EVs, Range Extended EVs, or Plug-in Hybrids? I suggested that no one plug-in vehicle is a game changer, and this data doesn't change my mind.

Nonetheless, this data does seem to show that consumers might not be ready to to fully utilize plug-in vehicles, especially plug-in hybrid or range extended electric vehicles. For instance, if consumers do not piously plug-in, the cost-effectiveness of plug-ins can decrease significantly, especially as the battery size increases. Considering that plug-ins aren't very cost-effective to start, this could be a serious issue.

Best Plug-ins: EVs, Range Extended EVs or Plug-in hybrids

Range extended EVs are better?

Just finished watching one of the latest Chevy Volt YouTube videos on the virtues of range extended EVs versus pure EVs, a topic that tens of billions in federal funds could soon be built around.

So, what's the best plug-in vehicle? Which plug-in vehicle is a legitimate game-changer?

Let's imagine it's 2012. Numerous plug-in vehicles are available for sale. Which one is best? A short range plug-in hybrid, such as a Toyota Prius plug-in, or a full electric vehicle, such as the Nissan Leaf? Or, how about a combination of the two, such as a Chevy Volt?

Finish: Best Plug-ins: EVs, Range Extended EVs or Plug-in hybrids

Report: The important role of plug-in hybrids

A Ford Escape plug-in hybrid

“Betting on Science – Disruptive Technologies in Transport Fuels” is a new Accenture report that covers 12 technologies with the potential to disrupt transport fuels supply, demand and GHG emissions over the next 10 years.

Comparing advances in combustion engines, biofuels, electrification and other technologies, Accenture finds that science offers many options to disrupt the transport industry, but I'm going to focus on my big take away.

Finish: Report: The important role of plug-in hybrids

Cadillac Converj could be Volt's best friend

Ready to plug in this Cadillac?

I'm a fan of the Chevy Volt, a pretty big fan actually - at least in the technology powering the Volt. Yet, in the next decade Toyota will sell millions of hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius, as GM sells hundreds of thousands of Volts.

Unfortunately, the technology powering the Volt just won't be cost-effective for the masses until the 2020s, minimally, as the Prius turns into a profit machine and a gateway to Toyota plug-in vehicles.

However, the Volt's range extended plug-in drive might just be the perfect fit for Cadillac. And according to the DetroitNews, the Cadillac Converj plug-in hybrid has been approved by GM's board.

Already Toyota has proven that there is a market for luxury hybrid vehicles, and it seems the market for the Converj hybrid could be even far riper. American-made and green, this plug-in might just be the ultimate bling for luxury consumers.

Even better, a successful Converj could provide a big boost towards scaling down the Volt's costs, and I'd bet the Converj will be a wildly successful Cadillac and luxury vehicle.

Top Ten Prius proves need for hybrid tax credits?

Number 10

Despite some supply issues the Toyota Prius was the 10th best selling vehicle in the US in October according to the latest data.

Obviously, that proves conventional hybrid cars don't need new tax credits, right? Thus, tax credits should be reserved for larger battery-powered vehicles?

Why?

Wouldn't it be beneficial to get as many hybrids on the road as possible as quickly as possible? Likewise, might not tax credits for hybrids force other automakers to get serious about challenging the Prius in terms of hybrid sales?

Certainly, such a credit would hurt US automakers in the short term, but nothing breeds change like necessity. Besides, if plug-in hybrids are going anywhere, a lot more conventional hybrids are going to get there first, and both hybrid types can share battery technology.

Finally, even a little protectionism could be added to such a credit. For instance, make the credit available only for hybrids manufactured in America.

No super grid for PHEVs needed in many areas

Ready for the plug-in revolution?

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how one utility executive claimed that 3 - 5 plug-ins in one neighborhood could "overwhelm" the grid. Well, that's California. In other areas the situation is not so dire for plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Mike Ligett, director of emerging technology for Progress Energy Corp., which serves Florida and the Carolinas, recently stated, "People who want to build out a smart grid on the backs of electric transportation aren't doing us any favors. We do not need a smart grid to make this work. We have plenty of capacity; we have lots of off-peak energy."

Of course, is the energy clean? Likewise, should Floridians, for instance, have to suffer for California's utility problems? Then again, based on the sales of hybrid cars, plug-in success might be dependent upon California.

Aside from making the nation's grid more robust, a super grid might also enable clean solar energy from Florida or California to power Ohio in the winter. Or, wind energy in North Dakota could power West Virginia if CO2 sequestration can't clean coal efficiently.

Still, is a super grid about solutions, or the new - after big oil - big electric energy power trip?

Gassy: Making sense of Fisker plug-in hype

The Model T of the plug-in hybrid?

There has been a ton of news about Fisker Automotive in the last several days. I guess being connected to the VP of the US is a pretty smart move, especially when the government is doling out $50 billion in fuel efficient loans and other grants, etc. these days to automakers and suppliers.

Still, how important is Fisker, and it's plug-in hybrids, to America's automotive future?

As with Tesla, I respect Fisker's focus on fuel-efficient, technologically-advanced products, but we're still talking about luxury vehicles. I mean, how much has Porsche, Ferarri, etc. really driven the future of the gasoline-engined auto industry?

Of course, the plug-in future is different. New. One innovation could change everything. Nonetheless, the future of the plug is scale, or millions of sales every year.

After selling more than 2 million hybrid cars, Toyota's hybrid technology still hasn't scaled enough to be cost-effective for most consumers, but Fisker or Tesla can achieve scale via tens of thousands of luxury plug-in vehicle sales per year?

Or, perhaps these luxury plug-in automakers are simply using luxury plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles to bridge to $50,000 'economic' versions that can compete with a Chevy Volt, a plug-in Toyota Prius, or a Nissan Leaf, etc in 2015?

Maybe. Still, I cannot help but ask, is a new automaker really the missing part of the oil-free revolution, or is the real issue the cheap cost of petroleum - at least in terms of pump prices?

Study - Energy costs much more than consumers pay

And plug-ins don't help much if coal-powered

Some great information coming out of the “Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use” study completed by the National Research Council for Congress.

Essentially, America's energy paradigm costs Americans MUCH more than what we pay at the gas pump or in our utility bills. In 2005, for instance, America's 'hidden' costs of energy production added an extra $120 billion in health costs, not including "damages from climate change, harm to ecosystems, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security, which the report examines but does not monetize."

So, in reality, the costs are even far greater, and converting to grid-powered plug-in vehicles is no quick fix, at least in terms of health costs.

"Electric vehicles and grid-dependent (plug-in) hybrid vehicles showed somewhat higher nonclimate damages than many other technologies for both 2005 and 2030. Operating these vehicles produces few or no emissions, but producing the electricity to power them currently relies heavily on fossil fuels; also, energy used in creating the battery and electric motor adds up to 20% to the manufacturing part of life-cycle damages."

Of course, if national security costs had been monetized, then some of these health costs would be negated.

Consequently, the reports suggests that, "major initiatives to further reduce other emissions, improve energy efficiency, or shift to a cleaner electricity-generating mix (e.g., renewables, natural gas, nuclear) could substantially reduce external effects’ damages, including those from grid-dependent hybrid and electric vehicles."

A few UM plug-in study thoughts

Have automakers over-played the plug?

Like past studies, the University of Michigan plug-in study finds that a number of Americans, 42 percent in this study, are interested in plug-in vehicles. Of course, most of those interested are only willing to pay about $2,500 extra for a plug-in vehicle, which is also in line with most other studies.

The study also finds that foreign oil dependency is a much bigger plug-in adoption factor than is global warming.

Consequently, while there is a market for plug-in vehicles, there seems to be a far greater market for cost-effective, foreign-oil dependency-fighting solutions than what plug-in vehicles are going to address any time soon. For instance, other studies have suggested that as many as 80 percent of Americans are interested in hybrid cars, again, if the price is right.

Obviously, the price isn't right for most Americans today. Nor are there enough hybrid choices.

However, that will have to change if Toyota is to achieve its 30 percent hybrid sales goal by 2020. And, if they can achieve this goal, imagine how many potential plug-in hybrid consumers Toyota will have in its pipeline just as plug-ins start achieving scalability.

Some have called Toyota's plug-in plans "conservative". In reality, aren't Toyota's battery-powered vehicle plans not only more aggressive than every other automaker, but also more realistic?

Hybrid cars 30 percent of Toyota sales by 2020

Just the beginning

By 2020 Toyota will offer a hybrid option on every vehicle it sells, according to Takeshi Uchiyamada, Toyota executive vice-president in charge of product development.

Currently, hybrid cars represent 8 percent of all Toyota vehicles, largely led by the Prius hybrid. However, by 2020 Toyota expects that hybrids will make up 30 percent of all vehicle sales.

Still, don't expect the majority of them to be plug-in hybrids, Toyota's bearish view of plug-ins seems still intact. Uchiyamada noted “We don’t think electric vehicles will spread that fast.”

Utilities pledge to strengthen grid for plug-ins

The future of American transportation?

Yesterday, at the Business of Plugging in Conference in Detroit, the CEO of PG&E warned that even a small number of plug-in hybrid vehicles could overwhelm the electric grid if overly localized in one area and charged during peak hours.

Today, at the same conference, utilities collectively pledged to work together to develop infrastructure that can support the commercialization and deployment of plug-in vehicles.

Can utilities do a better job than oil companies of managing America's energy paradigm? Could they do worse?

Aluminum hybrids $3,000 cheaper?

The key to cost-effective hybrids?

"By upgrading from traditional steel to an advanced aluminum body structure, the vehicle's stored energy requirements can be cut by about 10 percent, which could save up to US$3,000 per vehicle since less power and energy is required to move the lighter vehicle," Michael Bull, director of Automotive Technology for aluminum products maker Novelis, Inc. said in remarks to be given on Tuesday at the Center for Automotive Research's (CAR) "Business of Plugging In" conference in Detroit.

Wouldn't the same technology make ALL cars cheaper and more fuel efficient?

3 - 5 plug-ins in one neighborhood could "overwhelm" grid

A solar-powered Prius

The Toyota Prius is hot in California. So, as they become available, it isn't hard to imagine some wealthier California neighborhoods sporting multiple plug-in vehicles, such as a plug-in Prius or a Chevy Volt.

No problem, right? The grid has massive excess capacity, as long as you charge up after midnight.

What happens, however, if a few neighbors with plug-in hybrid vehicles return home from work on a hot summer day and need a quick charge before heading out to run errands?

"You're going to overwhelm the circuits," claims Peter Darbee, CEO of Pacific Gas & Electric Corp. in California, "you would create a peak load on top of the peak load."

$7500 tax credit insufficient to drive plug-in sales?

How much to spur sales?

While the $7,500 federal tax credit available for buying plug-in hybrids is good, larger incentives will be needed to lift sales of plug-ins like the Chevy Volt.

"The costs are very high. The volumes are low," Jonathan Lauckner, vice president of global program management said during The Business of Plugging In Conference in Detroit. "We are competing against a technology, the internal combustion engine, that has been continuously developed and has a 100-year headstart."

Thus, Lauckner suggested more incentives would be needed to drive plug-in sales, at least Volt sales.

So, how much is enough to spur plug-in vehicle sales?

Isn't it possible that the Volt is simply a cost-ineffective technology compared to other plug-in vehicles?

The perfect hybrid

And the winner is.....

Is the Toyota Prius the perfect hybrid? What if you added some extra batteries and a plug, would that make the Prius the perfect hybrid? How much electric range should it have, as much as possible?

Is 40 miles of electric range the key to plug-in hybrids, such as GM's Chevy Volt is expected to provide?

According to GM's research 90 percent of commutes average less than 40 miles. But, what does 'average' really mean? Isn't it possible that many people drive much shorter distances most days per week, but on one or two days per week, they drive much further?

If your average commute to and from work is only 10 miles or less, and the rest of your mileage is made up of much longer trips, what's the most efficient and cost effective hybrid to meet your needs? Is it a conventional hybrid, a short range plug-in hybrid or a long range plug-in hybrid?

Inevitably, it seems the perfect hybrid will be different for different consumers based on many different needs and wants. Still, is it simply premature to even discuss the perfect hybrid?

Plug-in Prius: The end of Toyota?

Simply too conservative?

The Chevy Volt will offer 40 miles of electric range. The plug-in Prius, on the other hand, will only offer 15 or 20 miles of electric range.

So, is the Volt twice as good as a plug-in Prius?

Transportation program director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, Roland Hwang, told the NYTimes, "From an environmental perspective, the more [electric] range the better."

So, what's Toyota's excuse for its lack of environmental commitment?

At this point in the development of plug-in hybrids, Toyota believes the key to success will be driven by cost-effectiveness. And lower range plug-in hybrids, Toyota believes, make it "easier to promise low cost and durability from the get-go," notes one expert in this informative Times article.

Is Toyota being too conservative with its plug-in hybrid technology?

Really, hasn't Toyota always been boring and conservative? Isn't that exactly what Prius haters dislike most about Toyota's top selling hybrid? Why would they approach plug-in hybrids any differently?

A case for plug-in hybrids

A Prius about to be converted into a plug-in hybrid

My power went out just before midnight last night and I've blown through both of my notebook's batteries.

No worries. My hybrid is full of juice, so I'm working in my car right now, and this whole experience has me thinking about plug-in vehicles.

Until a much more robust infrastructure for EV charging is developed, instances such as these - and it only takes one - will remind consumers of why a plug-in hybrid is simply a more comforting choice of vehicle than a pure EV.

The irreconcilable EV dichotomy?

Madness or genius?

Sure, the Toyota FT-EV II electric car is odd, but is it practical? Is it cost-effective compared to other electric vehicles or even gasoline vehicles?

For instance, how many Americans can afford a two-seat $90,000 electric Roadster just for commuting? Even $45,000 is still far too expensive.

And that's the genius of a vehicle like the FT-EV. It's EV practicality. Why buy more than you need? If kept simple and on task, costs can more easily be contained for EVs, especially EVs built for average commuters.

Of course, is the American auto consumer driven by practicality?

Still, Honda has shown similar ideas, as has Mitsubishi. Nissan's Leaf isn't quite so economically focused, but it's definitely closer to the FT-EV side of the dichotomy growing between cheap EVs and luxurious EVs, as is the revolutionary Better Place idea.

One the other hand, one week luxury vehicle maker Audi is slamming the Chevy Volt, the next week they are announcing plans for the Audi E-Tron, a luxury electric vehicle. The Volt doesn't make sense, but the E-Tron does?

Then again, everyone is building a luxury EV or luxury plug-in hybrid these days, at least a few of them. Isn't this really more about marketing at this time? Besides, are luxury EVs and luxury plug-in hybrid vehicles really the path to cost-effective evonomics? Or, are cost-effective evonomics dependent upon a more practical, efficient realization of the automobile, such as the Leaf or the FT-EV II?

Can Americans really have their EV cake and eat it to, or is a revolution in America's auto culture required to really move America's auto industry, and auto consumer, forward?

Sound Off: Luxury hybrid vehicles

Holy chick magnet?

Check out the BMW M1 hybrid. Not only are you rich, but green.

I mean George Clooney probably already has a down payment on one.

Likewise, those private jet flights down to the latest and greatest Caribbean hot spots don't have to feel so guilty for the jet-setting crowd if they pick up one of these hotties.

All joking aside, a BMW plug-in hybrid is a great idea, as is an all electric Audi E-tron, for instance. Luxury hybrids and EVs are ALWAYS better than their gas-bonging relatives.

Still, are these vehicles really proving anything? Are there enough buyers of such very expensive vehicles to really scale down the costs of these technologies for the masses? And, if these vehicles are just sucking down dirty electricity rather than dirty petroleum, is anything really being gained?

Certainly, luxury hybrids are a step forward, but do they really mean anything more than a good pat on the back?

Have you converted your hybrid into a plug-in hybrid?

A plug-in Prius

Many hybrid owners dream of converting their hybrid cars into plug-in hybrid vehicles, but few have actually made their dreams come true.

Have you converted your hybrid into a plug-in hybrid?

Toyota: It won't be easy to scale down lithium, plug-in costs

A Prius about to be converted into a plug-in

Since the launch of the first Toyota Prius, NiMH battery costs have dropped from about $10,000 per battery pack to less than $3,000. Size and weight have seen similar reductions.

So, won't lithium battery technology follow the same scalable trajectory?

Not according to Toyota.

After a few years of quietly testing lithium-ion technology in a number of Prius hybrids in real world conditions throughout the world, Toyota was able to validate that lithium-ion technology is safe. However, for the small fuel efficiency gains it provides, lithium is just not yet cost-effective.

Nonetheless, while Toyota believes that NiMH technology is the best technology for today's hybrid cars, the automaker still believes that lithium is the best technology for plug-in vehicles. Unfortunately, Toyota does not believe that mass production will scale down the costs of lithium technology nearly as fast as NiMH technology according to a presentation at the California Air Resources Board’s ZEV Technology Symposium in Sacramento, California.

Coupled with limited range, lack of infrastructure, etc., Toyota believes it will be hard for current lithium technologies to move plug-in technologies into the mass market.

However, at the same conference, representatives from Nissan and Tesla, for instance, were more positive on lithium technology.

Is Toyota a lithium and plug-in vehicle laggard? Does Toyota have the wrong lithium technology? Is Toyota too vested to NiMH? Or, is Toyota simply being honest about the realities of lithium and the plug-in revolution?

$6000 for 50 miles of EV power for your Prius

Let Jungle Motors convert your hybrid

So, you got a good deal on a used 2004 Toyota Prius and you want to convert it into a plug-in hybrid. Well, if you have an extra $6,000 in your pocket, Jungle Motors will convert your Prius (2004 - 2009) into a plug-in hybrid with up to 50 miles of EV range.

"Our new 10KW Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4) battery technology and BMS now enable the Prius to travel up to 50 miles at up to 52Mph without turning on the engine," says Brad Sachs, director of Jungle Motors.

Soon, kits will also be available for other full hybrid vehicles as well.

Sure the kit is still a bit expensive, but if you have a solar-powered home, for instance, such a kit might be well worth the cost. In fact, how about a free plug-in conversion, via tax credits, for homeowners that go solar?

Fisker receives $1/2 billion loan for plug-in hybrids

Are you worthy?

According to Silicon Valley, Detroit is already dead, they just don't know it yet. Eventually, some of the world's biggest venture capitalists believe companies like Fisker Automotive will replace iconic names like GM and Chrysler.

Consequently, today the government loaned Fisker $1/2 billion to help put their plug-in hybrids to the test. While the Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid, at a cost of $90,000, will be the first auto built by Fisker, the real goal is the Nina, a $40,000 plug-in hybrid that should be available by 2012.

Fisker hopes the Nina can achieve a sales volume of 100,000 units per year and create as many as 5,000 new jobs.

Time to get real about hybrids and plug-ins

All about the dead Presidents?

Several months ago, a JD Power survey found that, despite declining gas prices, more than 70 percent of Americans were interested in buying hybrid cars. More than 40 percent of that 70 percent indicated they would pay as much as $5000.00 more for a hybrid.

At the time, however, hybrid sales were declining, as hybrid market share fell below 3 percent. Apparently, it's not easy to put your money where your mouth is.

Can we change this disconnect? Finish: Time to get real about hybrids and plug-ins

Toyota won't rush into plug-in Prius rollout

Plug-in leases coming soon

Toyota is on track to lease 500 plug-in Prius hybrids before the end of this year. According to Toyota, these plug-in hybrids will offer an electric range of 12 miles, afterwhich the Prius functions pretty much like a standard 3rd generation Prius.

Thus far, Toyota has claimed that its lithium battery production has proven reliable and that its manufacturing process appears sound. Hopefully that trend holds true as production scales upward.

Nonetheless, Toyota is not in a race to bring such technology to the mass market.

"Although we like to be first to market with these technologies, it's more important that we are best to market," says Irv Miller, Toyota's environmental and public affairs group vice president in the U.S.

Unfortunately, no real word on costs just yet, although the plug-in Prius should be a good bit cheaper than the Chevy Volt thanks to its shorter EV range and smaller battery pack. And costs, according to recent polls, will be critical to successful PHEV adoption.

Still, does Toyota's plug-in Prius really mean much until Toyota can replace the NiMH batteries in the the current Prius with lithium? Isn't that the best path to economies of scale for lithium production and, eventually, plug-in vehicles?

No "real breakthrough" in plug-ins yet

Plug-in space still wide open

The other day Germany announced its plans to put 1 million plug-in vehicles on the road by 2020. While critics have claimed the program is lacking in details and funding, it's no surprise Germany would implement such a goal considering the importance of the auto industry on the German economy and psyche.

Nonetheless, Germany has been a bit of a laggard on hybrid and electric vehicle technology. Yet, German officials are not worried about whether they can catch up to the rest of the auto industry.

According to Transport Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee even Japan hasn't yet achieved a "real breakthrough" in plug-in technology.

Vue / Buick plug-in hybrid killed again?

Vue plug-in hybrid killed twice

Earlier this year I was invited to test drive the dual mode Saturn Vue hybrid, and I was excited. This was the first GM full hybrid that I could at least consider buying. Moreover, the Vue hybrid was destined to become a plug-in hybrid.

Then GM killed the test drive, then the launch of Vue hybrid, and, finally, Saturn altogether.

However, GM recently announced that the Vue hybrid, at least the plug-in version, would live as a new Buick crossover.

Apparently, according to the latest reports, GM has decided to kill this vehicle to due feedback from GM customers.

Energy independence: Tax credits for the Volt forever?

What's the Volt worth to America?

What's a better deal, the Chevy Volt or the Toyota Prius?

The Prius, by a long shot according to analysis by CNNMoney. Even if a Volt driver were to use only electricity to power the Volt and gas were to hit $5.00, the Prius is a still a better deal, even after the government's $7500 tax credit for the Volt.

Of course, in the real world, most Volt drivers will use gasoline, as range will easily fall under 30 miles for many drivers. In fact, aggressive Volt drivers might only achieve 10 miles of electric range according to some battery experts. For such drivers, the Volt would become terribly cost-ineffective.

Then again, the Prius isn't always the most cost-effective option for those seeking to buy a small car and save money on gas CNN points out. Yet, the Prius has still become a pretty big hit.

So, the Volt will probably be a hit as well, at least initially, but what happens after the tax credits for the Volt expire, and early adopters have filled their new technology fix?

Moreover, if the Prius and similar hybrid cars are only able to achieve just a few percent of market share, how are even less-cost effective plug-in vehicles supposed to significantly increase this share?

Is America on a real on a path to energy independence?

Lutz on Fast Money: Dodging questions on Volt viability?

The Vice Chairman at his best

Last night Melissa Lee of Fast Money asked Bob Lutz how many units of the Chevy Volt GM expected to sell. Instead of answering, Lutz switched the conversation to how much better the Volt is than the competition. Fine. Maybe it is on a technological level.

Lee then followed up by asking when consumers can expect to reap the benefits of the Volt. After a $7500 tax credit, Lutz claimed at $32,500 the Volt wasn't too much more expensive than Toyota Prius. Still, he never explained how long it would take the Volt to recover its additional expense compared to a Prius or a similarly sized conventional vehicle.

Yet, what happens when tax credits run out? Moreover, recently it was reported that even at $40,000, GM is still losing money on every Volt sold, as the first Volts will be sold below cost. On top of that, GM eventually - someday - needs to start recovering the $1 billion plus spent on production costs.

Thus, tax payers - now owing 60 percent of GM - are selling the Volt at a loss, at a time that the Volt program is already $1 billion+ in debt, and taxpayers are also going to provide a $7500 tax credit to help sell a vehicle that can't help GM's bottom line for at least a decade?

And, not too much more expensive than the Prius?

I don't know. $10,000 + a $7500 tax credit sounds a little expensive to me, especially considering that the Toyota Prius is already a tough sell for the far majority of Americans. Most Americans want an even faster payback, an even cheaper clean and green option.

And, while I agree with Lutz's sentiments about petroleum-free driving, without enticing a majority of Americans, EVs will have no effect foreign oil dependency even if they achieve 1,000,000 mpg.

In 10 or 15 years, the Volt might have a chance of becoming a profitable, top-selling vehicle in America. In the interim, competitors will be developing a plethora of Volt competitors. Yet, none of them mean anything until millions of reliable and cost-effective battery packs can be produced per year.

Until then - even as early as next year - Toyota could be selling 1 million hybrid cars+ per year.

So which car, the Prius or the Volt, will offer the greatest reduction in petroleum over the next decade?

Tax credits for plug-in hybrids insufficient to spur PHEV sales

Sexy, but expensive

A new study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) finds that the move to plug-in hybrid vehicles will not be easy. Likewise, even if the current Federal Tax Credit for plug-in vehicles - ranging from $2,500 to $7,500 based on battery pack capacity - were made permanent, even more incentives would be required to achieve any serious market penetration, such as a sales tax exemption, in addition to other subsidies.

Under the best case scenario, according to the study, market penetration could be 20 percent in 30 years. However, without a permanent federal tax credit, PLUS additional incentives, plug-in adoption will be "feeble at best."

In conclusion, the researchers suggest a 5 cent gas tax to be used to create additional plug-in incentives. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if that 5 cent gas tax funds both the current Federal Tax Credit, which is capped, and the additional incentives required, or just the additional incentives. If the gas tax covers only the additional incentives, then a larger tax should be assumed.

Unfortunately, even under this best case scenario, gas consumption would only be reduced by 20 percent, meaning that the US would still be heavily dependent upon foreign oil in 30 years.

For media only: Buick plug-in hybrid

The Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid lives

We've known for some time that GM was going to build a plug-in hybrid SUV. Originally, the Saturn Vue was going to be the platform for GM's dual mode plug-in hybrid powertrain, but then GM killed Saturn.

Thus, the new hybrid will based on the GMC Terrain and the Chevrolet Equinox platform and will mate a 3.6-liter V6 flex-fuel engine with a plug-in version of the dual mode hybrid powertrain. Also, it will use similar lithium technology as the Chevy Volt. Expect this new hybrid sometime in 2011.

Certainly, it is a good sign that GM continues to move forward with its hybrid vehicles, but it's hard to accept this new hybrid - or most of GM's hybrids - as anything other than PR fodder and/or a CAFE hedge when GM's product head, Bob Lutz, claims green cars are more about the media than reality.

Have GM's hybrids and plug-ins become a joke?

With Bob Lutz claiming that only 5 percent of the population will be interested in vehicles like the Volt, or this new Buick plug-in, how seriously can GM be taking this market? It seems quite clear, based on Lutz's statements, that GM's endeavors into the Volt and other plug-in vehicles are more about PR than reality.

0.5% market share for plug-ins by 2015?

Great for media, but how about the real world?

If it were up to me, I'd cancel the cash for clunkers program and offer an unlimited tax credit, at least through 2015, for any and every vehicle that achieves at least 50 mpg combined. I might even add an additional credit for any vehicle that achieves 100 mpg combined.

Ultimately, I'd bet that would lead to a rush in development of hybrid cars and other plug-in vehicles if the credit were similar to the clunker's program.

Without such a program, I've written that battery powered vehicles are going nowhere fast. For instance, according to JD Power or CSM Worldwide, hybrids and plug-ins will only achieve a marketshare of 3.6 percent by 2015, compared to 1.6 percent in 2009. Plug-in vehicles will achieve a market share of just .5%.

Say JD Power is wrong. Say JD has some hidden agenda. However, thus far, JD has done a pretty good job of predicting hybrid vehicle market share.

Is there too much hype around the battery-powered revolution? If the battery-powered car is our goal, why not be realistic about what it's going to take to get us there?

Aptera 2e steps closer to production

Latest interior sketch of the Aptera 2e

The final touches are being added to the Aptera 2e electric vehicle, which is scheduled to begin production this year. Aptera has released this sketch of the latest interior design.

In 2010, Aptera will also roll out the plug-in hybrid version of the Aptera.

It's still a strange vehicle and cost-effectiveness could be an issue. Beginning at $25,000, this limited seating vehicle will only resonate with a small group of consumers. Of course, $25,000 isn't very much to many early adopters of such technologies, especially in the auto segment.

Nonetheless, I love the out-of-the-box thinking on the 2e. Hopefully, Aptera will sell enough of these vehicles to provide the R&D resources to keep refining their unconventional, yet brilliant, ideas.

Toyota still cautious on lithium technology

Next step for plug-ins unclear

Toyota is still on track to release a pilot fleet of 500 plug-in Prius hybrids this year, but the automaker is not yet certain what the next step will be for lithium-powered plug-in hybrids.

Yoshimi Inaba, chairman and CEO of Toyota Motor Sales USA, told the DetroitNews, that Toyota isn't yet fully committed to selling plug-in vehicles commercially until Toyota is confident that large lithium battery packs pose no safety risks. Thus, this demonstration fleet will be critical to the future of Toyota's plug-ins.

"All the learning that we can from that, I think we will decide the next steps," Inaba said.

Just 30,000 plug-in Prius hybrids per year

Better put your order in now?

According to unconfirmed reports, Toyota is planning to produce 30,000 plug-in Prius hybrids per year beginning in 2012. These hybrids will achieve an electric range of 15 miles and offer up to 100 mpg.

Regardless of the veracity of these reports, Toyota is set to begin leasing a small amount of plug-in Prius hybrids later this year.

Plug-in vehicle success still far off in the future?

Will consumers buy expensive coal powered plug-in vehicles?

The Government Accounting Agency (GAO) has completed its research on the benefits of plug-in vehicles, availability and challenges of incorporating plug-in vehicles into the federal fleet according to GreenCarCongress. While the report found that plug-in vehicles offer much potential, it also found lots of problems.

For instance America must either embrace nuclear or wide scale renewable power projects in order for plug-ins to reach their potential. Of course, each of these paths offers its own set of extensive problems, such as costs, public approval, etc. Moreover, significant cuts in battery costs, coupled with much higher gas prices, and a more robust auto demand, for instance, will be required to create enough demand for plug-ins to keep the technology moving forward.

Ultimately, the GAO report suggests that wide scale plug-in adoption, even at the Federal level, is going to be a complex process. More than anything, at least in my opinion, the report seems to imply that wide scale plug-in adoption might be much further into the future then many of us would like to believe.

Certainly, US automakers need to continue, even increase, their plug-in efforts, but isn't it becoming more and more obvious that US automakers need to completely reconsider their short-to-midterm auto production plans? For example, can the US auto industry continue to move forward without a direct competitor - in terms of cost and technology - to the Toyota Prius?

Buick plug-in hybrid coming?

The Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid

Now that Saturn is dead, at least as far as GM in concerned, the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid concept is also dead. Not long ago, however, GM announced that the dual mode plug-in hybrid technology powering the Vue hybrid would find its way into another GM brand.

According to some, that new brand will be Buick, although this rumor has not been confirmed by GM.

While I'm glad to see GM's dual mode hybrid plug-in hybrid powertrain remain alive, I have worries about its potential. Currently, GM's dual mode hybrid vehicles have not sold that well. Thus, it seems a little doubtful that adding even more expensive plug-in technology to such vehicles would offer much change.

On the other hand, the Saturn Vue is built on a much smaller platform than GM's current dual mode hybrids. So maybe there still is hope.

Plug-in Prius leasing coming this year, but...

Ready to lease a plug-in Prius?

Later this year Toyota will lease a number of lithium-powered plug-in Prius hybrids. Unfortunately, only 150 of them will make it to the states in the first year.

On a side note, 110,000 orders for the 2010 Prius have been placed in Japan according to the AP.

Volvo ReCharged on plug-in hybrids

Beyond the ReCharge concept

Volvo has been toying around with plug-in hybrid vehicles for a few years now, primarily beginning back in 2007 when Volvo launched the ReCharge concept.

Now Volvo is partnering with Vattenfall to produced diesel-powered plug-in hybrids by 2012. In fact, by this summer this partnership will put 3 Volvo V70 plug-in hybrids on the road as demonstration vehicles to glean information about future viability, consumer desires and driving patterns, etc.

$32,500: Is the Chevy Volt a dud or a deal?

Would you buy a $40,000 Volt that includes a $7500 tax credit?

GM's Bob Lutz told David Letterman what most that have followed the Chevy Volt have known for some time - the Volt is going to start at $40,000. Add a $7500 tax credit and that brings the price down to $32,500.

Most polls I've seen indicate this is still too expensive for most consumers. Nonetheless, I believe there will be hordes of potential consumers lining up for the Volt, especially since production will probably be relatively limited for the first few years, minimally. And, of course, the limited tax credit will also inspire early adopters.

Regardless, what happens when tax credits for the Volt expire? Will GM have to sell the Volt at a significant loss until economies of scale eventually, hopefully, enable a natural price reduction?

Finally, are plug-in tax credits the right approach for stimulating plug-in sales? Why not an instant point of sale refund? Can't the government be more consumer friendly?

Catch 22: Plug-ins and cheap gas

Not cost-effective or profitable?

Many years ago I wrote the best hybrid car was a plug-in hybrid car. Today, I'm not so sure. Without significantly higher gas prices Americans will not buy hybrid cars in numbers that finally revolutionize the US auto industry.

If Americans won't make the investment into today's hybrid technology, why would anyone assume that Americans will invest in even more expensive plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles?

Without much higher gas prices, Americans will not buy these vehicles, at least not enough of them to make these vehicles profitable for US automakers in the next decade, maybe even two. And, if American automakers cannot survive in much of North America making internal combustion vehicles, how are they going to survive making less profitable - if profitable at all - and significantly more expensive plug-in vehicles?

Without $4.00 or $5.00 gas they won't. They can't.

Ironically, if gas suddenly goes from $2.50 to $5.00, American consumers might still not buy these cars as the economy would be so devastated they probably couldn't afford them regardless of gas prices. Even if they would buy them, American automakers are many, many years from selling such vehicles in numbers that would have any effect. Our pace towards change is simply too slow.

So why not a smart gas tax that covers the costs of hybridization via tax credits from gas tax revenue, while making alternative fuels more cost-effective?

Besides, if we're going to save the US auto industry, shouldn't we try to save it in a way that has some legs, some long term viability? Next quarters balance sheet can no longer be the metric for determining success.

Nonetheless, is long term viability of the US auto industry possible without higher fuel prices? Otherwise, aren't we just throwing good money after bad to delay the inevitable collapse?

Chinese auto sales: Opportunity, Danger or Threat?

BYD Automotive is a favorite of Warren Buffett

In April China sold 1.15 million autos, up some 25 percent from last April. Unbelievably, more cars might be sold in China this year than will be sold in America.

Fortunately, for US automakers, brands like GM's Buick are top sellers in this barely emerging automotive market, so China represents a huge opportunity for US automakers. Unfortunately, China also represents not just danger for America, but the Chinese automotive market could end being an outright threat to the US economy and its national security.

For instance, last summer's run up in gas prices was helped by Chinese demand for oil, which is obviously only going to grow, significantly. As America comes out of this recession, US demand for oil will increase. Eventually this demand will again squeeze the margins and guarantee that higher gas prices will be coupled with our economic recovery.

Yet, higher gas prices might not even be the real threat.

Recently, Warren Buffett became a significant investor in Chinese automaker BYD. Actually, BYD isn't much of an automaker, it's a battery maker. That is quickly changing, however, as the company is now building its future on battery powered vehicles: hybrid cars and other plug-in vehicles. In fact, Buffett believes that in just a decade or two BYD could be even bigger than Toyota.

Certainly it is too early to predict how China will affect the world's automotive market. Will China be America's greatest automotive opportunity in decades, or a threat even far bigger than Japan ever presented? I guess we'll see, but Buffett's investments indicate that US automakers will soon be facing serious Chinese competition that will forever change the world's automotive landscape.

Saturn might be dead, but the Vue plug-in is not

On track for 2011

In 2008 GM brought a Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid to the North American International Auto Show. Turns out that plug-in hybrid wasn't just some marketing-driven mock-up, but an actual test vehicle that GM had been road testing just days earlier. Everything seemed online for a 2010 launch.

Now Saturn is on the chopping block, however, the Vue plug-in hybrid will not be a casualty of this lost brand. Instead, GM plans to reproduce this hybrid under one of the remaining GM brands.

According to GM this plug-in hybrid will achieve at least twice the city fuel economy of any other conventional SUV.

Time to pull the plug on the Chevy Volt?

It just can't help GM?

If you hate GM, then you probably don't think much of the Chevy Volt. In fact, you might even call it an unrealistic hype machine into which GM has sunk far too much money.

That's the argument the Washington Post makes today, and I have to admit, it's a pretty persuasive argument. For instance, the article points to numerous analyses, including some done by President Obama's auto task force, that indicate the economics simply don't make sense for a vehicle like the Volt. Thus, how can the Volt help GM's bottom line?

For example, even with $4.00 gas, it would still take, minimally, six years for the the Volt to recover its costs compared to today's Toyota Prius. And, that's assuming the Volt will only cost $30,000 after huge government tax credits and subsidies. Even at such a cost, it would still take far longer for many other Volt owners to recover their costs compared to a Prius.

Thus, this Post editorial suggests pulling the plug on the Volt, and I couldn't disagree more.

I have long argued that the Volt should never have been an excuse not to develop a Prius-contender. Perhaps GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrid system can fill this void, but cheap quality hybrids will be a necessity for any automaker in the very near future.

Fortunately, GM's billion dollar investment into the Volt could help produce such cheap hybrid vehicles, aside from the Volt. Because much of GM's Volt investment has been centered around one core technology, lithium-ion batteries, GM could conceivably parlay this knowledge into many different types of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Hence, to call GM's Volt venture a waste that helped lead to bankruptcy and a loss of corporate reputation is pure nonsense.

I've seen GM's battery labs. I've seen GM's virtual design center. These two elements alone could make GM's Volt investment worth the cost, even if the Volt itself is another decade away from any sort of real world, cost-effective impact.

Nonetheless, the Volt cannot save GM in the next decade. However, that does not mean the plug should be pulled on the Volt. Instead, it means GM needs to utilize the massive amount of intelligence gleaned from the Volt and convert it into a more well-rounded and balanced hybrid and electric vehicle portfolio, including the Volt.

If GM can do that, the Volt might just be GM's smartest investment ever. If not, maybe we shouldn't just pull the plug on the Volt, but GM.

Honda will also produce plug-in hybrids

Fuel cells aren't Honda's only electric plans

Honda has seen the light, the hybrid light. Not so long ago, Honda believed that cheap hybrids, such as the Insight hybrid, were a simple bridge to fuel cell vehicles, such as the Honda Clarity. Moreover, Honda wasn't too sure that plug-ins of any kind made environmental or fiscal sense.

Today, however, Honda believes hybrid cars are now becoming a "mainstream" technology. Thus, Honda will be exploring other forms of hybrid technology, including plug-in hybrids according to Honda's Chief R&D Engineer, Kenji Nakano.

Are EVs really the future?

Will everything be an EV in 2050?

Without doubt right?

Wrong, at least according to a conference session at the SAE 2009 World Congress in Detroit. There officials from Toyota, Nissan, NREL, GM, Daimler, Honda and Bosch stated that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles would be an important part of the total vehicle mix in 2050. In fact, the internal combustion engine will still be an important part of the mix in 2050.

Ultimately, the majority of the auto industry only sees EV viability for small, short range vehicles, not, however, as a powertrain solution for America's truck and SUV culture. For these vehicles, the bread and butter of the US industry and the monthly sales leaders, more efficient internal combustion engines and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are the future.

Vue: Another kink in GM's plug-in chain?

Is the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid dead?

Well over a year ago GM was road testing an almost production ready plug-in hybrid. No, not the Chevy Volt, which GM prefers to call a range extended electric vehicle rather than a plug-in hybrid, but the Saturn Vue dual mode plug-in hybrid.

Now that Saturn is almost assuredly dead or gone, is this plug-in hybrid dead?

With some studies questioning the efficiency of large battery plug-in vehicles, such as the Volt, the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid could be a nice complement to GM's plug-in plans. Even if Saturn is dead, I sure hope GM resurrects this technology in another GM brand.

Time to revisit plug-in tax credit legislation?

Is its battery big enough?

There has been an AP story all over the Internet covering the difficulties of reaching President Obama's 1 million plug-ins by 2015 goal. Cheap gas, a struggling economy, bankrupt automakers, and excessively expensive technology, etc. make the goal impossible without massive help from the government.

Thus far the government has offered tens of billions in loans and aid to help automakers retool, in addition to plug-in tax credits for consumers worth up to $7500. While these tax credits are not as heavily skewed towards large battery plug-ins as originally proposed, they are still skewed towards vehicles that some studies have questioned in terms of efficiency.

Now, I don't want to argue against large battery plug-ins, but I do wonder if this legislation is as effective and efficient as it could be. Even worse, I wonder if this legislation is semi-counterproductive.

For instance, with plug-in profitability possibly a decade away, are plug-ins more about CAFE balancing than an aggressive attack on oil dependence? Also, will these vehicles be profitable after tax credits expire?

Is the size of the battery really the key this early in the game, or should there be more focus on putting lithium into as many cars as possible as quickly as possible?

Jaguar seeks some Karma

Luxury plug-ins are the rage!

Tesla. Fisker. How many more names was it going to take for established luxury auto makers to realize that plug-ins represented an important niche for niche luxury auto makers?

Not much longer for Jaguar.

Now that Jaguar is a little better financed, according to MotorTrend, the luxury automaker is ready to roll out a new plug-in hybrid version of the XJ sedan around 2011, and a number of other hybrid vehicles are also planned.

I know most of us can't afford these luxury hybrids - I certainly cannot - still it has really been amazing how resistant established automakers, including luxury makers, have been to change. One might have assumed these niche players would have been quicker to react than the the major players, but they've been in the same denial.

Plugged in: Does Buffett prove BYD is golden?

What does the oracle of Omaha know about cars?

Not much, according to Warren Buffett, but Buffett partners, Charlie Munger and David Sokol, knew enough and Buffett listened. Thus, last fall Buffett settled on a 10 percent share of BYD.

Why?

According to a great Fortune piece, the Buffett team now believes that BYD could become the world's largest automaker thanks to its ability to sell plug-in hybrid cars and other electric vehicles at a cheaper cost than other manufacturers. For instance, BYD's current plug-in, the F3DM costs just $22,000 - far cheaper than most hybrid cars on the road today.

Unfortunately, don't expect a BYD hybrid in America anytime soon. BYD isn't sure it wants to come to America because the economics are not compelling for plug-in viability, however, BYD is interested in selling batteries to American auto manufacturers, which is ultimately, the key to BYD's future.

Thus far BYD believes it has developed a technological breakthrough enabling the safe and cost-effective mass-production of lithium batteries. If true, even mighty Toyota better watch out according to Warren Buffett.

Make today's hybrids lithium hybrids

Put lithium inside it

Auto sales are tanking and an auto industry recovery is many years away. Sales of hybrid vehicles have been crushed. However, the new Honda Insight and the 2010 Toyota Prius appear as if they could bring some recovery to hybrid sales, thanks to pricing competition.

Still, without a spike in gas prices, most Americans will continue to shy away from these fuel efficiency focused vehicles despite cheaper pricing. Thus, many, such as AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson, have called for a gas tax to help incentivize interest in fuel economy, while creating funding for fuel efficient tax credits.

With or without gas tax funding, it seems to me that a new tax credit should be created to incentivize the use of lithium batteries in conventional hybrids, thereby solidifying the use of lithium in the auto industry. Moreover, many of these hybrids can inevitably and quite easily be converted into plug-in hybrids as lithium costs are reduced - A123Sytems, an American battery company, has already proven this. So make a tax credit for that as well.

I know such an idea is heresy to many in the plug-in movement, whom believe it's plug-in or nothing, but shell-shocked consumers, numerous consumer surveys, energy prices, etc. paint a different picture. Especially in these economic times, we need to walk before we run, and millions of lithium hybrid cars per year can be a huge step in the right direction.

How secure would a national smart grid be?

Forget storm outages, what about cybersecurity?

It's 2020. Now, imagine a 90 square mile patch of solar panels in the desert of the SouthWest powering all of America via a super grid. Now imagine plug-in vehicles throughout America powering up via clean, green solar power. No oil. No dirty coal. Just clean, green solar energy.

Sounds great, right?

Right up until some cyberterrorist shuts the grid down for a couple of weeks and you can't power your home or your electric car. Good thing I'll be driving a plug-in hybrid, and living in a home with solar panels (hopefully)!

All kidding aside, the recent cyberterrorist scouting of the current electric grid is a reminder that the plug-in revolution isn't without obstacles, perhaps massive obstacles which might significantly increase the costs of electric power.

Certainly, we should continue to move forward with national smart grid plans and solar farms, but more effort in the short-to-midterm, in my opinion, should also be focused on small battery plug-in hybrids - versus large battery vehicles - and more distributed energy, especially regarding home solar and wind solutions.

Karma: No plug-in hybrids without a gas tax?

Does the Volt make sense when gas is $2.00 per gallon?

Watched some of Newsweek's Future of the Auto Industry discussion yesterday on CSPAN. Interesting panel, but mostly a bunch of people pushing individual agendas, rather than an open discussion of possibilities.

For instance Michigan Governor Granholm framed everything around saving the Michigan Auto Industry. Henrik Fisker painted a rosy portrait of the Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid and claimed 50 percent of all vehicles sold by 2020 will be plug-in hybrids.

Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation disagreed with Fisker. He predicted 10 - 15 percent of all vehicles sold might be plug-in hybrids by 2020. However, most US consumers, according to Jackson, will not pay more to do the right thing, and Jackson has decades of auto experiences and numerous consumer studies to validate his position.

A gas tax, however, could make change happen much faster and Jackson pointed to July of 08 as an example. Because of high gas prices, the far majority of consumers made fuel efficiency their top priority.

Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Plain and simple cost effectiveness

Later this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.

So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.

The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.

Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.

FINISH: Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Hyundai Blue-Will Plug-in hybrid confirmed

Coming in 2012

Hyundai will bring a plug-in hybrid to market in 2012 that will be based closely off the pictured Blue Will concept.

According to reports, the Blue Will will use a 1.6 liter direct injection engine coupled with a 100 kw motor and Hyundai's lithium polymer batteries. Early testing suggests the plug-in hybrid will achieve 38 miles of pure EV power, 106 mpg when in plug-in hybrid mode, and 55 mpg in just hybrid mode.

While no pricing has been released, of course, Hyundai believes the car will be cost-effective as most development has been done in house.

In related news, Hyundai announced its upcoming Hyundai Sonata hybrid was coming in October of 2010.

Forget electric cars. I want a methanol PFCHV

It's all electromethanogenesis, baby

Forget electric cars?

I must be off my rocker, right? So, which wild hair crawled up my behind?

Well, I am a fan of fuel cell technology, you see, and I've long believed that fuel cell hybrid vehicles, not just battery-powered EVs, are the future. Fuel cells are just too efficient to ignore.

Yet, fuel cells are not without faults, such as the need for scarce metals. Still, fuel cell issues, I'm confident, can be resolved.

It's cracking the hydrogen highway that's the real nut.

Methanol fuel cell plug-in hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, could use methanol pumped through the current gasoline infrastructure that dominates American life today.

Finish: Forget electric cars. I want a methanol PFCHV

32 Dealers ready to sell Karma hybrid

Coming to a dealer near you?

Can't wait to get your hand on a plug-in hybrid? Later this year you might be able to get your hands on one of the new $87,900 Fisker Karma plug-in hybrids. There are now 32 retailers ready to carry the brand.

Hyundai offers peak of new plug-in hybrid concept

The Blue-Will plug-in hybrid

Hyundai is showing off its latest hybrid concept as a sneak preview to the Seoul Auto Show in April. The Blue-Will plug-in hybrid, according to AutoWeek, utilizes used recycled soda bottles for the headlights, as well as biodegradable plastics for the engine cover and interior. Likewise, the panoramic solar-celled roof will help charge the battery.

Obama shifting funding from hydrogen to plug-ins

A Honda fuel cell vehicle

The Obama administration will shift the government's funding from hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to plug-in vehicles.

"We want diversity, but we also want critical mass. If we're going to address these problems (of dependence on foreign oil), we eventually have to build something," said Steven Chalk, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Energy Department's Office of Energy Efficiency of and Renewable Energy, adding the government has to "pick some winners so to speak and go with our best shot."

Bailout busters: How could you support the Big 3?

More hybrids?

According to numerous polls, most Americans are not very supportive of further bailout money for the Big 3. Is there, however, certain bailout strings that could make more Americans supportive of the US auto industry?

For instance, a requirement that each of the Big 3 would produce at least 1/2 million hybrid cars and plug-in vehicles per year?

Or, perhaps even better, how about agreeing to new CAFE legislation that is as strong as what California's EPA waiver request would require? Such a requirement would inevitably lead to a serious ramp up of of hybrid and plug-in production.

What would it take to make you more supportive of the US auto industry?

MIT Breakthrough - Instant plug-in charging

The key to charging in minutes rather than several hours?

MIT scientists have figured out a way to "charge and discharge batteries in a matter of seconds rather than hours" using conventional battery technology, which could enable not just much quicker charging, but lighter batteries.

While the breakthrough could be commercially available in two to three years, typical homeowners may not have enough power available to utilize the breakthrough via home charging. Likewise, manufacturing costs would also have to be reduced in order to be applicable to automobiles.

MIT via InsideLine

Huge increase in Toyota hybrid production soon? PHEV angle?

It's gotta be more than the Prius, right?

Toyota has sold more than one million hybrid cars in the US alone. In the next few years, according to reports, Toyota also plans to add 10 new vehicles to its hybrid segment. Consequently, Toyota believes it can start selling 1 million hybrid vehicles per year early in the next decade.

Impossible? Not without a significant increase in energy prices? Not without a plug-in? Not without a cheaper hybrid?

Something new seems required to achieve such a prediction. Is it possible that Toyota could quickly flood the US market with plug-in hybrids much faster than most are anticipating? That's my bet (or is it hope?).

GM responds to CMU study questioning Volt viability

It's not dead yet

Last week Carnegie Melon University put out a study questioning Volt viability. Actually, it wasn't just questioning the Chevy Volt, but the size of the battery pack in a plug-in vehicle and whether or not it would be cost-competitive, reduce global warming issues, etc. compared to conventional cars, hybrid cars and smaller battery-pack hybrids.

Yesterday, GM responded. One of their primary contentions was the cost of the battery pack cited in study, which GM claims is over-estimated.

The response also suggests the Volt won't be cost-effective at first, but scalability will change that. Read the full response here.

Enough lithium to plug-in America?

No shortages for at least 10 years?

Read a pretty interesting lithium article this weekend regarding how Bolivia plans to develop its lithium mining industry - something essential to the development of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

Most notable is the fact that Bolivia doesn't just want to mine lithium, the country also wants to build batteries and maybe even some of the cars that Bolivian lithium will go into producing. Thus, any partnership Bolivia develops for lithium mining, might also have to include battery plants in the country as well - something which could significantly increase partnership costs, in addition to export costs.

In terms of lithium supply Brian Jaskula, a U.S. Geological Survey commodity analyst states, "Everything I've been hearing from the producers and industry consultants indicates there won't be any shortage for the next 10-15 years."

Is the Volt the wrong kind of plug-in?

Too much EV range?

Carnegie Mellon University has finished carrying out an interesting study on the "impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) battery pack size on fuel consumption, cost and greenhouse gas emissions over a range of charging frequencies (distance traveled between charges)," according to GreenCarCongress.

In many driving scenarios, the study finds that conventional hybrid cars make more sense than any kind of plug-in hybrid. However, if a plug-in can be recharged every 20 miles or less, then a small-battery plug-in hybrid can be more cost-effective than a conventional hybrid. However, large battery plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevy Volt, were never found to be cost-effective.

Higher gas prices, and a number of other issues, significantly affect these results. Still, the study would seem to suggest that a plug-in Prius, for instance, is a more cost-effective approach to plug-in viability than is a vehicle like the Volt.

If true - and this study certainly doesn't establish truth - it would suggest that the government's plug-in tax credits are barking up the wrong tree by focusing on battery size.

Is cap and trade the best path to plug-ins?

Is now the right time?

$150 billion over ten years to help the US auto industry develop much more fuel efficient vehicles, especially plug-in hybrids. Sounds like a good idea, but from where will the money come? Is it enough?

Under President Obama's new budget, it will come from an emission's cap and trade system, or it won't come at all. Yet, is cap and trade the right approach? Is it the the right time?

There have been a number of economists whom have claimed that, inevitably, it's going to take $100 - $150 billion just to stabilize the US auto industry. However, if the yearly run rate for US auto sales sticks around 10 million units for several more years, US automakers will need many more tens of billions just to survive, let alone to develop more efficient vehicles.

And, what about consumers? With the latest Rasmussen Polls showing that the majority of American's now believe that global warming is caused by planetary trends, rather than CO2 emissions, is using a struggling US auto industry, via cap and trade, the best litmus test for plug-in viability?

Of course, is there any other option?

Is America really ready for plug-ins?

Is it as simple as just building the cars?

"Plug-in vehicles are a revolution for the consumer and will transform the way we move from place to place, and the way we think about using energy. But each community is unique—they have different commuting patterns, parking concerns, demographics, local businesses, and cultures."

Thus, the Rocky Mountain Institute has launched Project Get Ready to help communities prepare for the challenges and opportunities that plug-in hybrid vehicles will bring communities.

Do you think such a venture is just a green money grab now that Obama is in the White House, or are the conditions for plug-in adoption far more complicated than just building the vehicles?

Technology: Do the Big 3 have the right stuff?

Can this car save Chrysler?

So, Big 3 automakers are at the Washington Auto Show trying to prove to the White House and Congress that they have the right technology to reduce foreign oil dependency and fight global warming?

But do they really?

Probably the most iconic example of next generation American auto technology is the Chevy Volt. Many, including this blogger, have called the Volt game-changing. However, I make that statement with one caveat: cost-effectiveness.

I have no doubts that the technology powering the Volt will be a success. I do, however, have some doubts that the Volt's technology can achieve cost-effectiveness and cost-competitiveness. In fact, I don't even think there is a chance of cost-efficiency without significantly higher fuel prices - probably much higher than what was experienced this past summer.

Moreover, perhaps the Volt is the wrong kind of technology for America's problems. Maybe more conventional hybrid vehicles or plug-in hybrids, such as a plug-in Prius or a plug-in Escape hybrid, aren't as technologically sophisticated, but they are simply more cost-effective. Or, just a better balance of upfront costs and long term fuel savings.

Today, there are just too many variables - too much uncertainty - to make predictions based on technology that not one automaker has yet sold in the real world. Besides, markets determine winners, not PR departments.

What is clear today, however, is that the Big 3 cannot cost-effectively compete at selling fuel efficient technology. So, why will the future be any different?

Unimpressive plug-in Prius results?

Is plugging it in worth it?

In "real world" driving, Toyota plug-in Prius testers are achieving about 65 mpg when driving exactly as they would in a conventional Prius.

According to Bill Reinert, Toyota Motor Sales, the way you drive has a far bigger effect on plug-in hybrids compared to conventional hybrid cars. "That difference is just magnified, supercharged, turbocharged with a plug-in electric because how fast you go really pulls the current out of the battery. It is a big deal."

The 2010 Toyota Prius, on the other hand, is supposed to achieve about 50 mpg in real world driving.

Is such a small gain worth the effort?

Obviously, for those with a soft foot, or those whom drive solely in urban traffic, a plug-in Prius might offer significant gains above 65 mpg. So, pricing will be key.

Still, if the new tax credit for plug-in hybrids makes a plug-in Prius the same prices as a non-plug-in Prius, the plug-in version could be a steal.

Senate seeks to double eligibility for plug-in tax credits

Does this stimulate today's economy?

There is a proposal in the Senate to increase the amount of vehicles that can qualify for the plug-in tax credit from 250,000 to 500,000 vehicles. For vehicles that have a battery pack of at least 4 kWh's in size, a tax credit of $2500 to $7500 will be available for the first 250,000 vehicles. Under the new proposal, the first 500,000 vehicles would be eligible.

While I support the proposal, does this really stimulate the economy today, which is what I thought was the focus of this stimulus bill?

Is Fisker a Tesla killer?

The Karma convertible

In about a year, Fisker Automotive will begin production on the Karma plug-in hybrid sedan. Already the company is finalizing the details on its dealership network and at least 1,300 vehicles are already on the books according to reports.

Yet, what is really interesting about Fisker is the plan to produce 15,000 plug-in hybrids per year. By the time the Karma goes on sale, on the other hand, Tesla might still not have produced 1,000 Roadsters.

Is Tesla quickly becoming irrelevant?

In terms of cost, both the Roadster and the Karma are in the same league. Yet, the Karma seems to offer so much more. For instance, a wider dealership network, better range, and more seating.

Yes, Tesla will eventually offer a 4-seat sedan that could cost-cut the Karma, yet Tesla's manufacturing history is a serious question mark. If Fisker can come out of the gate with all their manufacturing pistons firing, is there any room left in the market for Tesla?

Detroit Auto Show: Do you buy the green hype?

Prius sales down 44 percent

In the last few years, automakers have realized that green is in, at least in terms of marketing. As a result, auto shows have become forums for establishing green cred.

This year's Detroit Auto Show was greener than ever, yet are automakers really any greener? Or, is most of the green auto movement pure hype?

In just a couple of years, GM's Chevy Volt will put rubber to the road, but it will be many more years before GM produces serious numbers of Volts per year.

A number of other automakers will also be rolling out various types of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles in the next few years as well. Again, however, also in very small numbers.

Even if automakers are more aggressive with their EV and hybrid plans, are consumers even ready for such vehicles?

Not if the economy isn't significantly stronger and gas prices much higher NewsWeek speculates, and I doubt that major automakers are oblivious to this possibility. Numerous studies have indicated that a significant percent of consumers want hybrids and EVs, but they don't want to pay much extra for them. How do struggling automakers cope with that reality?

Do automakers have a solution to this conundrum? Do they really care? Or, is all this green hype really much more about image than reality?

If I had to make a bet, I'd bet on a number of automaker bankruptcies before I'd bet on their green developments. Great change is coming to the auto industry, but that change isn't going to be driven by powertrains, but simple survival.

Or, is green talk the quickest path to Obama's bailout heart? (Check comments for an update)