Hitachi battery breakthrough not for cars?

Only for large scale storage

I've been following a story on Hitachi lithium magnesium batteries for the last week or two. When I originally read about this breakthrough, I was a bit skeptical. Just days earlier, I had learned that Hitachi desperately needed to derive new sources of revenue, so I suspected this claim of doubling the life span of lithium batteries might just have been an overly positive statement meant for potential shareholders.

Instead, it seems to be the real deal.

Sadly, however, there is no near term value for such batteries in the automotive space, instead these batteries are specifically designed for large scale industrial use, such as "electrical power storage in wind power generation and other new energy fields, and as industrial power sources for electric-powered construction machinery designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

In fact because of the potential of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrids, Hitachi worried that increased demand for cobalt would eventually make its large scale battery applications too expensive. Hence, several years ago Hitachi began developing new lithium ion batteries that used more manganese spinel materials, rather than cobalt. Unfortunately, first gen batteries only offered a life span of about 5 years, but new prototypes based on new cathode materials have shown the ability to double this lifespan.

Perhaps one day this breakthrough will find its way into hybrids and plug-ins, but even if not ever suitable for automotive applications, this breakthrough could still help more green energy find its way into plug-in vehicles.

Ford - Much more fed money needed for battery research

To power with American batteries

"Despite $25 billion to help automakers retool plants, a $7,500 tax credit and billions in stimulus funding for charging stations and related infrastructure, automakers continue to lobby the federal government for more aid to spur sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles," notes Kicking Tires this morning.

And while giving the closing speech at the Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress yesterday, Bill Ford Jr echoed this sentiment, calling for greater government involvement regarding electric vehicles, particularly battery research, according to the DetroitNews.

Nonetheless, as Kicking Tires suggests, and has been discussed endlessly on this blog, doesn't it all really come down to the price of gas?

A battery-powered chance for the Big 3

Detroit's best selling hybrid

Last year, Toyota sold hundreds of thousands of hybrid cars, and since the launch of the Prius, Toyota has sold millions of hybrids.

Ford, the leading American hybrid manufacturer, has only sold about 125,000 hybrids in total since the launch of its first hybrid.

Fortunately, Toyota uses NiMH batteries in its hybrids, rather than the lithium-ion batteries that will power the future of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Thus, it seems the Big 3 have a chance to catch up to Toyota's battery-powered lead.

Yet, the Big 3 - and America - seem woefully unprepared.

If the battery is the key to plug-in vehicle viability and profits, then the Big 3 could be in trouble. Experts claim that some 70 percent of battery-powered value is found in lithium cell production, something that is practically non-existent in the US, particularly in terms of the auto. Moreover, companies like Toyota have already secured massive amounts of lithium for cell and battery production, production that Toyota will own a share of from the ground up, literally.

Now comes word that Japan is going to offer Bolivia a huge package of economic aid in exchange for lithium and rare metals.

Considering the massive investments the government has already made in the Big 3, coupled with analysis that suggests the lithium battery wars could be won within the next 5 to 10 years, is it time for an even bigger government role in the US auto industry?

Next gen plug-in batteries decades away

No real change until this changes?

Over the next several years manufacturing improvements will significantly reduce the cost of lithium-ion battery technologies for hybrid and plug-in vehicles. Inevitably, however, commodity pricing will impose a price threshold upon current battery technologies that will still be too high for most consumers according to researchers.

Thus, new battery technologies will be required to mainstream battery powered vehicles, and one of the most researched 'new' battery technologies is lithium-air.

Recently, breakthroughs in catalyst efficiencies have hinted that lithium-air batteries might eventually replace lithium-ion batteries because of their significantly better energy density. Nonetheless, top researchers claim it could take a decade or more just to work out the significant science and engineering challenges that remain before commercialization. Even then many years of cell phone and computer applications would be required before such technologies could become cost-effective for automotive applications.

Hyundai Sonata hybrid fuel economy revealed

But what about the price?

The new Hyundai Sonata hybrid will offer the same .25 drag co-efficient as the Toyota Prius, which will probably make the Sonata hybrid the most highway fuel efficient hybrid sedan on the market. While the EPA has not provided official fuel economy estimates, Hyundai claims the Sonata hybrid will achieve 37 mpg city and 39 mpg highway.

With its 169-horsepower 2.4-liter four-cylinder engine mated to a six-speed automatic transmission and a 40.2-hp electric motor, the Sonata hybrid will offer a total output 209 hp.

Of course the real story regarding the Sonata hybrid is its lithium-polymer battery technology, making the Sonata hybrid the first full hybrid to use lithium instead of NiMH technology.

Unfortunately, the cost of the Sonata hybrid has not yet been revealed. Nonetheless, based on the conventional Sonata's cheaper costs, many are expecting the Sonata hybrid to be cheaper than both the Toyota Camry hybrid and the Ford Fusion hybrid when it goes on sale later this year.

Plug-in adoption underestimated? Big 3 screwed either way?

How much interest?

A new study by PRTM, a global management consulting firm, suggests recent predictions of large format lithium-ion battery surpluses within the next decade are largely "unfounded."

Instead, PRTM is predicting a battery shortfall by 2016. Likewise, even if plug-in demand is less than expected, utility demand for large format batteries could pick up the slack, a point other studies have missed according to PRTM.

Most interesting, the US and Europe are facing serious shortfalls in lithium cell manufacturing compared to Asia. Unfortunately, cell manufacturing accounts for 70 percent of the value of a lithium battery pack - the key to plug-in profits - and this underinvestment in cell manufacturing could "have wide-ranging consequences in global competitiveness."

2012: A key year in the lithium wars

Ready for conversion

By as early as 2014, according to recent analysis, the winners of the automotive battery industry might have already won and revenues will rule.

Within the next few years a number of lithium-powered hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs will hit the road. Initially, most will be low-volume vehicles. Consequently, sales of NiMH hybrids will continue to dominate for some time, unless of course Toyota converts the Prius into a lithium hybrid.

Considering the importance of lithium, how long can Toyota wait before committing to lithium for its flag ship Toyota Prius? Even if Toyota's lithium-powered plug-in Prius tops plug-in sales by 2014, that might not be enough for industry-leading revenues. Of course, Toyota's recent lithium investments and battery partnerships hint that such complacency is unlikely.

Moreover, Ford has started to sound a lot like Toyota on hybrid vehicles. By 2018 it's possible that Ford could actually begin to challenge Toyota's hybrid sale's crown, and Ford's lithium commitment appears set to begin in 2012, with lithium-powered conventional hybrids the key.

When the plug-in Prius goes on sale in late 2011, I expect lithium-powered conventional Prius hybrids won't be far behind. If not, maybe Toyota will need some kaizen lessons from Ford.

2015: Battery demand 62 percent behind supplies

Only way to save the US battery industry?

By 2015, the supply of lithium-ion batteries will outweigh demand by about 62 percent according to Mary Ann Wright, manager of advanced auto batteries for Johnson Controls.

Similarly, last week, analysis showed that this over-capacity would force about 60 battery makers worldwide to consolidate into just 6 or 8 manufacturers. More important, the winners will be determined by revenues.

Based on US manufacturing plans, how can US automakers and battery manufacturers compete in the world's ever-important battery market place without a serious increase in the output of battery-powered vehicles? Isn't that the only way to game-winning, or at least competing, revenues?

Electrify every federal fleet, suggests Mrs. Wright. Good idea. How about also making more cost-effective battery-powered vehicles. For instance, if Toyota can sell 1/2 a million hybrid cars per year, why can Ford only sell 30,000?

Does the government have battery cars all wrong?

Do 25,000 Volts change the auto game?

For a long time I've been critical of the government's plug-in tax credits. They are simply too focused on large battery vehicles. While some might counter 'the bigger the battery the better', the plethora of studies demonstrating the cost-ineffectiveness of such vehicles is simply undeniable.

Inevitably, big battery plug-in hybrids, for instance, will not EVER be cost-effective using current battery technologies according to the scientific consensus. Major breakthroughs beyond manufacturing improvements will be required.

And, fortunately, the government is pumping massive amounts of money into developing some sort of battery industry in the US. Yet, again, one must ask, 'Is the government taking the right approach?'

Finish: Does the government have battery cars all wrong?

The great EV divide: Taxing the poor for little gain?

If you can afford a $50,000 car, do you really need a $7500 tax credit?

Watch the movies today and a Toyota Prius always seems to turn up. It's the darling of Hollywood, but how long will this relationship last? This is Hollywood, where relationships are measured in weeks, not years.

Besides, soon Hollywoodies can show their green cred by buying any number of more luxurious plug-in vehicles. And, shoot, the government will give them $7500 for saving the world, for looking even greener than some poor wanna-be in a Prius.

But, are these tax credits really helping to scale EV costs down to mainstream pricing? Are they really making the planet that much greener? Even worse, are these tax credits coming at the expense of poor people?

Finish: The great EV divide - Taxing the poor for little gain?

A plan to be 40 percent electric by 2020?

Are Americans ready and willing?

Calling foreign oil dependency “one of the most devastating policy failures of our time”, ex New York Governor, George Pataki, called for new programs to ensure that America is 40 percent electric drive vehicles by 2020.

Today, most experts predict that electric drive penetration will be about 3 - 7 percent by 2020. Therefore, to increase the rate of adoption, Pataki suggests a number of new policies, such as rebates for EVs instead of tax credits, tax exemptions for automakers and incentives for battery development.

Mary Ann Wright, VP and Managing Director, Johnson Controls Business Accelerator for Advanced Energy Storage Solutions, was far less optimistic and claimed demand for such vehicles simply doesn't exist to achieve 40 percent electric vehicle penetration by 2020. Ultimately, "gasoline is too cheap."

Toyota Prius a mistake?

Silly to have invested in NiMH hybrids?

So, at a press release yesterday, a Detroit-located reporter suggested that Toyota made a huge mistake by developing NiMH hybrid vehicles because NiMH technology is obviously the wrong battery technology according to the reporter.

So, the Toyota Prius was a mistake? Swapping out NiMH in favor of lithium won't be a seamless task when its cost-efective?

This isn't the first time I've heard such a sentiment coming out of Detroit, and I'm sure it won't be the last; however, doesn't this attitude demonstrate exactly why the Big 3 have struggled so significantly in the last few decades?

As Mamma always used to say, don't put off until tomorrow what can be done today.

Likewise, according to Argonne, a huge advocate and major lithium-ion researcher, current lithium-ion batteries, just like NiMH, are probably only an interim battery technology as well. Perhaps automakers should avoid battery vehicles all together until they have the perfect technology for every consumer?

But back to Toyota, can millions of hybrid consumers and thousands of patents built around electric drivetrains really be so wrong?

Toyota strikes major lithium deal

All plug-in ducks in a row

Toyota, via one of its partners, has joined forces with Orocobre Ltd to mine lithium in Argentina according to reports.

Aside from securing a supply of lithium, Toyota is now positioned for greater profit potential in the sale of plug-in vehicles. As it did with its current hybrid cars, Toyota is now laying the foundation for its own supply chain of essential materials for battery-powered vehicles. By keeping a significant percent of its supply chains and battery development in-house, Toyota has been able to foresee profits in battery-powered vehicles where others have not.

Now the hybrid king appears on a path to also become the plug-in hybrid king.

Lithium battery breakthrough?

50 percent cheaper batteries coming soon?

British company Qinetiq has supposedly developed new lithium-ion batteries with iron sulfide chemistry that can reportedly offer twice as much power density as today's lithium-ion batteries.

More important, however, the new batteries should be half the price of today's NiMH batteries.

If true, hybrid cars would become both more cost-effective and more appealing to a significant percent of new car buyers. Likewise, plug-in hybrids and EVs might only cost an arm instead of an arm and a leg.

Lithium-ion: Only a bridge technology

A couple of Chevy Volt lithium-ion battery packs

So, can lithium-ion batteries make plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles as common as your conventional gas-powered vehicle anytime soon?

Probably not. In fact, lithium-ion batteries are just a bridge technology to real EV penetration according to Argonne Laboratories, a source of much lithium-ion research. To make plug-in vehicles cost-effective enough for the masses, Argonne is focusing on next generation lithium-air batteries.

Still, lithium-air batteries are yet dependent upon numerous technological breakthroughs before becoming a possible reality. Even then, according to Argonne Director Eric Isaacs, it will be ten or twenty years before this technology can be commercially adopted.

New cobalt mine hints at increased hybrid production

Hybrids good for Idaho

Canada's Formation Metals Inc is set to begin operations that should lead to a major cobalt mine in Idaho.

Currently, 27 percent of Cobalt is used in battery technologies, including hybrid cars and some plug-in hybrids.

In the past environmental issues have prevented much new cobalt mining in the US. However, by working with environmental groups in the area and guaranteeing money for pollution mitigation and watershed protection, Formation Metals was able to secure approval from these groups.

Larger, lithium-powered Prius next year

The Prius family is set to expand

Starting next year, according to an unconfirmed report coming out of Japan, Toyota will begin producing a larger Prius-derived hybrid that will use a lithium-ion battery pack. Sources indicate the new hybrid will be either an SUV or station wagon and cost about $22,0000.

Toyota has brought up the idea of expanding the Prius line for years, so this news isn't that surprising. However, the fact that Toyota will utilize lithium is interesting.

Recently, Toyota claimed that 30 percent of all vehicle sales will be hybrid by 2020. However, Toyota has perpetually had a hard time producing enough NiMH batteries for its current hybrid cars. So, this seems to indicate that lithium will be integral to Toyota achieving its future production plans, and it won't just be lithium plug-ins, but lithium conventional hybrids as well.

Batteries to be "core" Nissan business

Nissan's Infiniti M hybrid

Nissan is making rechargeable batteries a "core business" for its long term plans.

"The electric car is going to be a long-term bet, a long-term investment," Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn told a news conference ahead of the Tokyo Motor Show.

"If you want to go for the electric car, or even for the fuel-cell car, the heart of the system is the battery," Ghosn said.

Lithium-powered Infiniti hybrid here in 2011

Nissan's first next-gen hybrid?

Nissan has announced that it will launch a new lithium-powered hybrid in 2011.

Other than its 2011 launch date, Nissan is providing few details on the 2012 Infiniti M35 hybrid.

How will Bolivia manage its lithium?

All about the lithium

South Korean state-run Korea Resources Corporation (KORES) is working hard in Bolivia to gain access to the country's large supplies of lithium, as are many other companies.

With hybrid cars and other electric vehicles on a path to capture as much as 25 percent of the world's automarket by 2025, Bolivian lithium appears ever more important.

But, Bolivia is playing their lithium card carefully, searching for quality partners to help Bolivia get the most of its natural resources.

"We need investments,' and 'companies who respect Bolivian regulations... who don't come to play politics' or 'conspire against the government,' said Bolivian President Evo Morales recently.

Does that already leave America out of the mix? If so, would that provide another competitive advantage to non-American automakers?

Toyota: It won't be easy to scale down lithium, plug-in costs

A Prius about to be converted into a plug-in

Since the launch of the first Toyota Prius, NiMH battery costs have dropped from about $10,000 per battery pack to less than $3,000. Size and weight have seen similar reductions.

So, won't lithium battery technology follow the same scalable trajectory?

Not according to Toyota.

After a few years of quietly testing lithium-ion technology in a number of Prius hybrids in real world conditions throughout the world, Toyota was able to validate that lithium-ion technology is safe. However, for the small fuel efficiency gains it provides, lithium is just not yet cost-effective.

Nonetheless, while Toyota believes that NiMH technology is the best technology for today's hybrid cars, the automaker still believes that lithium is the best technology for plug-in vehicles. Unfortunately, Toyota does not believe that mass production will scale down the costs of lithium technology nearly as fast as NiMH technology according to a presentation at the California Air Resources Board’s ZEV Technology Symposium in Sacramento, California.

Coupled with limited range, lack of infrastructure, etc., Toyota believes it will be hard for current lithium technologies to move plug-in technologies into the mass market.

However, at the same conference, representatives from Nissan and Tesla, for instance, were more positive on lithium technology.

Is Toyota a lithium and plug-in vehicle laggard? Does Toyota have the wrong lithium technology? Is Toyota too vested to NiMH? Or, is Toyota simply being honest about the realities of lithium and the plug-in revolution?

Toyota: Lithium still too expensive

A plug-in Prius at HybridFest

Since 2006, in the US, Japan, and Europe, Toyota has been quietly testing 126 lithium-powered Prius hybrid cars. In fact, there was a time when a few top Toyota executives announced that lithium would power the third generation Toyota Prius.

Then a few cell phone and laptop batteries exploded. Soon after, Toyota announced that lithium would not power the third generation Prius.

So, is lithium unsafe?

According to Toyota senior staff engineer for batteries, Kazuo Tojima, Toyota's tests demonstrated that lithium's “durability, stability and safety are assured.”

Unfortunately, while lithium also provided "small" fuel-economy gains, the costs of lithium still out-weighed the benefits.

Besides, is there any reason for Toyota to rush into lithium? On the other hand, isn't there every reason for US automakers to rush into lithium?

Time to get real about hybrids and plug-ins

All about the dead Presidents?

Several months ago, a JD Power survey found that, despite declining gas prices, more than 70 percent of Americans were interested in buying hybrid cars. More than 40 percent of that 70 percent indicated they would pay as much as $5000.00 more for a hybrid.

At the time, however, hybrid sales were declining, as hybrid market share fell below 3 percent. Apparently, it's not easy to put your money where your mouth is.

Can we change this disconnect? Finish: Time to get real about hybrids and plug-ins

What's wrong with tax credits for hybrid cars?

You're no plug-in, Ford hybrid

Today, Toyota is facing a battery shortage for its hybrid cars. By next year, however, Toyota might have enough batteries to produce 1 million hybrids per year.

Aside from Honda, no other automaker will produce even 100,000 hybrid vehicles per year until lithium is developed. Even then, many automakers might skip hybrids, instead preferring to put their lithium technology into limited production plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

However, if Toyota swapped its NiMH batteries for Enerdel's lithium batteries, for instance, it could produce either 100,000 electric vehicles or one million Prius hybrids. And, without question, 1,000,000 Prius hybrids would have a significantly greater effect on both foreign oil dependency and global warming.

Considering that plug-in vehicles could be 3 decades or more from achieving at least 20 percent marketshare, why is America's lithium focus only upon plug-in vehicles?

Without question, tax credits for plug-in vehicles are a worthy expenditure. Still, why only plug-ins? Why not put lithium into as many vehicles as possible?

Ultimately, wouldn't lithium hybrids lead to a much quicker and dramatic effect on America's foreign oil dependency and carbon footprint? Shouldn't that be the driver of any battery-powered tax credit?

Sonata hybrid goes through the paces

Can Blue Drive give Hyundai's hybrids street cred?

Insideline has a couple of spy photos of Hyundai's Sonata hybrid going through some paces with a number of other hybrid cars, such as the Ford Fusion hybrid and the Toyota Camry hybrid. Other than the photo, however, there aren't any new details.

At the LA Auto Show Hyundai claimed that its new lithium polymer batteries were going to be a cut above of the rest of the lithium field, such as the lithium batteries powering the Chevy Volt or the plug-in Toyota Prius.

I can't wait until the real world can put this claim to the test.

Battery grants: Tiptoeing around reality?

Will these save the US auto industry?

Just a short while ago, President Obama officially announced his plan to provide some $2 billion in grants to develop a battery industry in the US claiming that 'We failed far too long to invest in innovative technology'.

Such as the billion GM lost on the EV1? Such as the $1 billion + the Clinton Administration granted automakers to develop the next generation of fuel efficient vehicles? That's a couple a billion for innovative technology right there.

While I support these grants, other such efforts have been made in the past. They failed for one reason: cheap gasoline prices. Perhaps gasoline prices will be more supportive of such innovations this time around, but such a bet is still a significant gamble.

For instance, much of this gamble is being bet on plug-in vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt - a vehicle that is going to lose a massive amount of money for at least the next decade. According to the likes of JD Power, etc., such vehicles are going nowhere fast in the next decade. In fact, it will be decades before such vehicles represent at least 10 percent of America's auto fleet.

Even worse, ironically, according to the Volt's father, Bob Lutz, energy prices don't support hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius. Well, the economics of plug-ins like the Volt require significantly higher energy prices than conventional hybrids to achieve cost-effectiveness.

Are these battery grants really any different than what has been tried in the past? Ultimately, isn't innovative fuel efficient technology solely dependent upon energy prices?

The battery powered auto revolution: Going nowhere fast

Volts of hype

The battery is the future, at least the mid-term future, according to almost every major automaker. Eventually, after a couple of minor miracles, fuel cell vehicles might replace pure battery powered EVs. Still, even fuel cell vehicles will include hybrid-style batteries.

One way or another, the future of the auto industry is centered around battery technology.

Today, Toyota is the undisputed king of hybrid cars. Not a single other automaker is even on the same field as Toyota. I guess you could say that makes them the leader of the battery revolution. Unfortunately, however, Toyota's hybrid-powering NiMH battery technology is not the battery technology of the future.

On the other hand, for years now, GM has been hyping its battery-powered Chevy Volt hybrid, as Nissan has suggested it would skip hybrids in favor of pure electric cars. Regardless of whether the future is hybrids, pure EVs or a combination of both, every automaker is increasing their battery-powered hype.

Unfortunately, most of the battery-powered revolution is talk, talk, talk and spin, spin, spin.

Unless gas prices rise to at least $4.00, most Americans won't even a consider a hybrid like the Toyota Prius. It'll take even much higher gas prices to make the Chevy Volt cost-effective, and Nissan's EVs probably won't really resonate until battery swapping is perfected.

Yet, until all of that happens, expect even greater hype, more political sound bites, and increased media hoopla regarding how battery-powered cars are going to completely transform America, just don't expect the future to live up to the hype anytime soon.

Toyota still cautious on lithium technology

Next step for plug-ins unclear

Toyota is still on track to release a pilot fleet of 500 plug-in Prius hybrids this year, but the automaker is not yet certain what the next step will be for lithium-powered plug-in hybrids.

Yoshimi Inaba, chairman and CEO of Toyota Motor Sales USA, told the DetroitNews, that Toyota isn't yet fully committed to selling plug-in vehicles commercially until Toyota is confident that large lithium battery packs pose no safety risks. Thus, this demonstration fleet will be critical to the future of Toyota's plug-ins.

"All the learning that we can from that, I think we will decide the next steps," Inaba said.

Lithium or bust: Smart?

A plug-in Prius

I was at HybridFest this weekend where I spent a good chunk of time with a hybrid battery repair person (more on that later). Anyway, I brought up the idea of replacing my NiMH battery with a lithium pack in several years, and Ron, the battery man, asked, why?

Before I could reply, he mentioned numerous reasons why lithium would offer very little over a NiMH battery in a conventional hybrid - an argument I've heard before.

Of course, I was thinking plug-in hybrid, and I was also hoping that lithium costs would be much cheaper several years from now. But Ron's points have been ringing in my head since.

Today, automakers, such as Ford, are producing some great hybrids, but Ford's limited investment into NiMH technology means that Ford simply isn't going to produce many hybrid vehicles until lithium is a fully baked and cost-effective technology. In fact, Toyota stands alone as the sole automaker well invested into NiMH and capable of producing 100's of thousands of hybrids every year, if not millions.

However, Honda continues to pick up the pace of its hybrid beat. And Honda's new CEO Takanobu Ito, has made it quite clear that Honda is quickly and significantly increasing Honda's hybrid output. Unlike every other automaker except for Toyota, however, Honda does not seem to be waiting for lithium. Honda, it appears, will increase its investment into NiMH technology while rolling out lithium technology.

All of this makes me wonder? Have US automakers become too complacent regarding battery technology? Too focused on the future, rather than today? What if lithium takes much longer to cost-effectively roll out than expected?

Study: Battery Swapping the key to electric cars

Bad news for the auto industry?

A new study by the University of California at Berkeley finds that the key to electric vehicle success could be dependent upon the ability of electric car owners to swap their batteries. Under such a plan consumers might own their car, but not the battery, much like the idea behind Project Better Place.

I haven't been able to read the whole study yet, but I've been a big fan of Better Place's out of the box thinking. Nonetheless, it makes me wonder, is the entire established auto industry capable of surviving such a business model?

Hyundai's lithium polymer hits the real world

The power behind the new Hyundai?

Yesterday, Hyundai began selling its new Elantra hybrid, the first hybrid to use lithium polymer batteries, but only in South Korea. Nonetheless, the batteries powering these new hybrid cars could have a dramatic impact on the future of hybrids, and of Hyundai.

In terms of manufacturing, many experts believe that lithium polymer offers huge advantages compared to other lithium batteries, particularly when it comes to mass production. And today, cost-effective, reliable mass production is the key to the lithium game.

If all goes well, the new Hyundai Sonata hybrid should hit US shores late next year.

Daimler: Clean diesel is not enough

A Mercedes hybrid vehicle

While the future of the electrification of the automobile is still murky, Daimler is now fully committed to being a leader. Despite cutbacks in every department, R & D spending on lithium technology has been increasing and will not be cut.

From hybridization to full electric cars, Daimler is now certain clean, high performance diesel will not be enough to carry the company into the future. The battery is now critical to Daimler, and its marquee Mercedes brand.

"It's clear that a dramatic transition period has started," Thomas Weber, head of R&D, tells Fortune "and we want to actively shape it."

Thus, expect a a wide range of mild hybrids, full hybrids and electric cars from Daimler in the very near future.

Another step towards GM's lithium BAS hybrids

Lithium powered in 2010?

By the second half of 2010 GM should begin rolling out a few new hybrids with its upgraded BAS mild hybrid system. And the lithium-ion batteries for these new hybrids will be powered by Hitachi.

Today, Hitachi announced that it is planning to significantly increase production of its lithium ion batteries in advance of an expected significant increase in demand. So far, GM alone has already ordered enough cells for 100,000 hybrid vehicles.

Is the US auto industry headed in the right direction?

China's BYD hybrid on track for 2011 US launch

The other day a new University of Michigan study found that US automakers have perpetually underestimated the importance of fuel efficiency in the American market. However, a robust change towards fuel efficiency could be a huge cash cow for US automakers.

But are US automakers making the right moves?

America's most notable future product, in terms of fuel efficiency, is the Chevy Volt. Yet, the Volt's most important piece of technology, the lithium battery, is based on South Korea's LG Chem chemistry. Interestingly, LG Chem is also developing the cells to power Hyundai hybrids, another Korean company. Yet, if Hyundai has perfected the lithium polymer battery, Hyundai's battery technology might already be superior to GM's.

And what of smaller, cheaper cars and hybrids?

Again, there is Hyundai, but also BYD, Mahindra, Tata, and many other emerging automakers that could become very competitive within the next decade. And, many of these automakers - which have far cheaper labor costs - are building their entire business models on cheap, small vehicles and alternative technologies.

Moreover, like Hyundai, BYD has a hometown lithium cell provider, itself. BYD also has far easier access to lithium than does any US company.

Ultimately, I'm certainly not arguing that US automakers cannot compete, especially Ford. However, it seems US automakers need to think far beyond CAFE. If US automakers are to be successful a decade from now, don't they have to raise and lead the fuel efficiency bar across all automotive segments?

Hybrid wild card: Hyundai and its lithium polymer battery

Is the Sonata the right play?

Hyundai has yet to sell a hybrid in the US, and it's first hybrid will be the Sonata hybrid. Without a unique hybrid, can Hyundai really compete in the hybrid cars segment?

Certainly, Hyundai's debut of its Blue Drive Hybrid system at the LA Auto Show - featuring lithium polymer batteries - was extremely compelling. Still, how much will this technology cost, and without a unique hybrid offering, does lithium polymer matter?

I'm not sure, but after today's impressive jump in vehicle quality by Hyundai, I can't help but wonder if Hyundai isn't ready to kick up its entire operation a notch - an operation significantly focused on fuel economy. Hyundai has made numerous forward looking statements on CAFE, hybrids, etc. in recent years, but has this all been just talk - typical auto industry PR - or has Hyundai been preparing for this walk all along?

Hyundai might just now be finding its stride, and if Hyundai has also mastered the lithium polymer battery for hybrid cars.......well, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Toyota: NiMH more cost-effective than lithium

It could have been lithium powered?

There was a time when it seemed that the third generation Toyota Prius was going to be powered by lithium-ion batteries. Then some cell phones and laptops exploded and, not long after, came the announcement that the new Prius would not use lithium.

According to Akira Kuroda from Toyota's Hybrid Vehicle Material Engineering Division, Toyota's decision not to use lithium wasn't about unreliable battery technology. Instead, it was all about cost.

Over the years Toyota has been able to bring down the cost of its NiMH battery packs "dramatically" and cost reductions, notes Kuroda, are the key to the continued success of the Prius.

Nonetheless, Toyota has had 126 lithium powered Prius hybrids on the road for over 3 years, and so far these vehicles have provided promising results. Moreover, Toyota is prepared to utilize lithium for both its plug-in Prius and its electric vehicles. However, don't expect a conventional Prius to use lithium until lithium costs can be significantly reduced.

Is the lithium vehicle revolution more hype than reality?

A lithium battery pack from Hymotion

The other day one of GM's top Volt engineers, Frank Weber, claimed that by the second generation of the Chevy Volt, it was possible that battery costs could be halved. While I found that to be great news, I wondered how one could know such a thing if mass production of such batteries hadn't yet been demonstrated?

Then today I read a story about how GM's Global Battery Systems Engineering Group Manager, Joe LoGrasso, told the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference that "long-term commercial success [of lithium] may depend on the convergence of cell formats." Moreover, he claimed such convergence faced lots of obstacles and might not even be possible.

But, without such convergence, lithium success might not be possible?

These days, automakers have become marketing machines. Once Bob Lutz claimed that GM could have developed and produced a Toyota Prius contender with just a fraction of one year's marketing budget. Thus, automakers have a lot of money to spin hype and hope into publicly perceived reality.

One way or another advanced battery technology will make its way into the automobile, but is the lithium battery vehicle far more hype than reality today, and for the short to mid-term? Have automakers over-hyped the reality of current automotive technology, again?

Focus on Ford: What's the real state of lithium?

Why wasn't it lithium?

In 2010 Ford will roll out its all electric transit van. The next year a small EV will follow. However, less battery intensive lithium hybrids and plug-in hybrids won't hit the market until 2012 under Ford's current plans. Why?

Ford claims their new lithium battery technology will offer 5 percent more power than NiMH. More important, however, their lithium batteries will be 30 percent smaller, 50 percent lighter and about 30 percent cheaper to manufacture than NiMH.

Really? When? Because it's obviously not today, otherwise Ford would have added this technology to the Fusion hybrid, especially since the Fusion hybrid is less battery intensive than an EV. Moreover, Ford is only going to make 25,000 of these hybrids per year. So, such an implementation would have been minor compared to 25,000 EVs per year.

Yet, today, Ford doesn't plan to roll out a lithium hybrid until 2012, even though it would make such hybrid vehicles more powerful and cheaper? Why?

Many lithium experts have pointed out that hand producing lithium batteries for a handful of autos isn't a problem, it's cost-effectively mass-producing them in a way that guarantees absolute reliability for hundreds of thousands of vehicles that's the real concern.

If Ford couldn't safely and cost-effectively mass manufacture its new lithium technology for just 25,000 hybrids - about 2,000 battery packs per month - how close can we really be to the lithium revolution?

Ford's huge hybrid opportunity: Can Ford compete?

Can you compete with the king or not?

I still can't believe the early sales data coming in on the 2010 Toyota Prius. Even before the Prius actually launches, Toyota will have already sold more of these new hybrid cars than Ford will sell in all of 2009, despite the hype around the new Fusion hybrid.

Yet, as Chrysler and GM sit on the precipice of bankruptcy, Ford stands strong in Detroit, in America. Today, Ford evokes hope in the hearts and minds of those that believe the US auto industry can still compete.

But, what do we really believe in? That Ford understands finance? Obviously, but what about its future products?

If Ford was rolling out Honda's new Insight hybrid, it would have instantly sold out. INSTANTLY. Buy American-only buyers are dying to put their money in an American product that proves American automakers can compete, especially when it comes to fuel efficient technology.

But, can Ford truly compete in the future? Not if its cheapest hybrid is the Ford Fusion hybrid.

In recent weeks and months Ford has talked up its gains in lithium batteries. Enough talk. It's time to walk the walk and give America an American foreign-oil dependency, CO2-crushing, Toyota Prius contender. Such a vehicle cannot, will not, fail Ford. And the hype, buzz and floor traffic it would create for Ford would result in the biggest marketing coupe in Ford history.

So, can Ford compete?

Shouldn't we hybridize every car?

Not really a good EV candidate?

By 2050, decades from now, there will still be many internal combustion-powered vehicles on the road. In fact, in 2050 the road might be equally filled with ICE, fuel cell and plug-in vehicles.

If true, that would mean 2/3's of all autos are going to need some kind of battery, as the smartest fuel cell vehicles will be battery-using fuel cell hybrid vehicles.

Unfortunately, the US lithium battery industry is just short of nonexistent, especially when it comes to cell manufacturing.

So, why not hybridize everything starting in the next five years to guarantee the need for US battery manufacturing immediately, or at least as soon as possible?

And this isn't just about somtimes expensive full hybrids cars or plug-in hybrids, GM is proving that cost-effective lithium-based BAS hybrid systems can improve overall vehicle fuel efficiency by 20 percent. Such a system will pay for itself. Thus, if the government is going to help GM retool its business, shouldn't incorporating, minimally, this kind of hybrid technology into every vehicle line be required?

In fact, make each hybrid capable of being a BAS hybrid, a dual mode hybrid, or maybe even a dual mode plug-in hybrid.

Certainly, GM could use other tricks to make every vehicle efficient enough for new CAFE regulations, but a focus on batteries is critical if the US auto industry is truly going to compete in the next few decades, as batteries will become significantly important supplies.

But we're so far behind, we can't move fast enough. We have to be aggressive.

Since the US auto industry is, essentially, largely dependent upon the government, isn't this the perfect time to step into the next century of automaking via government assistance?

Moreover, why not unlimited tax credits for every hybrid made with a US manufactured battery? And/or, for any hybrid assembled in the US?

Can green vehicles really save the Big 3?

The Chinese auto has only just emerged

As Congress and the Obama auto task force contemplate many tens of billions - perhaps even much more - in aid to the US auto industry, is the US auto industry already a dead industry walking?

Kudos to President Obama for playing hardball - even if it is just for show - with the UAW, bondholders and corporate boards. Still, today these concessions are being forced in an effort to compete with Japan and Korea.

Tomorrow, even mighty Toyota might not be able to compete with Chinese automakers, and smart people like Warren Buffett are already making that bet.

Today, many claim that hybrid and electric vehicles are the key to the Big 3's future - vehicles with little profit potential for Big 3 automakers in the next few decades. Yet, Chinese automakers are quickly rushing to fill this segment with their own products. Moreover, China has far better access to lithium than does the US, hordes of engineers and an endless supply of cheap labor.

Can hybrid cars really save the Big 3? Can anything?

Time to revisit plug-in tax credit legislation?

Is its battery big enough?

There has been an AP story all over the Internet covering the difficulties of reaching President Obama's 1 million plug-ins by 2015 goal. Cheap gas, a struggling economy, bankrupt automakers, and excessively expensive technology, etc. make the goal impossible without massive help from the government.

Thus far the government has offered tens of billions in loans and aid to help automakers retool, in addition to plug-in tax credits for consumers worth up to $7500. While these tax credits are not as heavily skewed towards large battery plug-ins as originally proposed, they are still skewed towards vehicles that some studies have questioned in terms of efficiency.

Now, I don't want to argue against large battery plug-ins, but I do wonder if this legislation is as effective and efficient as it could be. Even worse, I wonder if this legislation is semi-counterproductive.

For instance, with plug-in profitability possibly a decade away, are plug-ins more about CAFE balancing than an aggressive attack on oil dependence? Also, will these vehicles be profitable after tax credits expire?

Is the size of the battery really the key this early in the game, or should there be more focus on putting lithium into as many cars as possible as quickly as possible?

Ford + EnerDel = Failure?

Where does your battery come from?

In the future, the US might no longer suffer from foreign oil dependence, but there is every reason to believe that we'll suffer from foreign battery dependence. Can the US auto industry survive and compete if it has to import cost-effective lithium batteries from Asia and Europe - areas that are years ahead of America in both battery R&D and manufacturing capabilities?

Today, there is only one company that has the ability to mass-produce enough lithium batteries for either tens of thousands of EVs or hundreds of thousands of hybrid cars right here in America. Unfortunately, EnerDel can't sign a contract with any of the Big 3 American automakers.

Why? According to Argonne Labs, Enerdel has quality lithium chemistry.

So, why didn't Ford, for example, show some real innovation and produce the Ford Fusion hybrid with lithium batteries from EnerDel, rather than NiMH batteries? Ford has no future with NiMH, so why not take a calculated risk with American-manufactured lithium batteries, especially if you're only going to produce 25,000 of these hybrids per year?

Late next year, Uncle Sam will be doling out $7500 tax credits to Americans that buy plug-in vehicles that might have been made in America, but the most important technology, the battery, was not. Isn't it time to also dole out some credits to push American automakers, such as Ford, into American manufactured lithium batteries for today's hybrids? Isn't there no better time to act than right now?

Hyundai Nuvis hybrid interesting but...

Great styling but questionable potential

I've been looking at pictures of the Hyundai Nuvis hybrid all morning, and I have to say I'm slightly disappointed. While I really like the styling of this vehicle, I have to question its approach.

Offering the room of a large sedan the Nuvis crossover is an appealing vehicle, but at 34 mpg combined, I'm just not sure its the right approach for Hyundai to showcase its future unless it can be priced considerably less than the Ford Escape hybrid.

Instead, I'd like to see Hyundai's Hybrid Blue Drive, which will use Hyundai's new lithium polymer batteries, in a smaller, cheaper Toyota Prius and Honda Insight hybrid contending package.

Moreover, considering Hyundai's lithium battery helped reduce the battery weight of this hybrid, coupled with the effort Hyundai took to make the hot new 228 hp inline 4 cylinder engine more efficient, I'm a bit surprised that the Nuvis doesn't blow the Escape hybrid's fuel economy numbers out of the water (Water was the design influence of the Nuvis).

Nonetheless, Hyundai's increasing focus on hybrid cars is very encouraging.

Make today's hybrids lithium hybrids

Put lithium inside it

Auto sales are tanking and an auto industry recovery is many years away. Sales of hybrid vehicles have been crushed. However, the new Honda Insight and the 2010 Toyota Prius appear as if they could bring some recovery to hybrid sales, thanks to pricing competition.

Still, without a spike in gas prices, most Americans will continue to shy away from these fuel efficiency focused vehicles despite cheaper pricing. Thus, many, such as AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson, have called for a gas tax to help incentivize interest in fuel economy, while creating funding for fuel efficient tax credits.

With or without gas tax funding, it seems to me that a new tax credit should be created to incentivize the use of lithium batteries in conventional hybrids, thereby solidifying the use of lithium in the auto industry. Moreover, many of these hybrids can inevitably and quite easily be converted into plug-in hybrids as lithium costs are reduced - A123Sytems, an American battery company, has already proven this. So make a tax credit for that as well.

I know such an idea is heresy to many in the plug-in movement, whom believe it's plug-in or nothing, but shell-shocked consumers, numerous consumer surveys, energy prices, etc. paint a different picture. Especially in these economic times, we need to walk before we run, and millions of lithium hybrid cars per year can be a huge step in the right direction.

Chrysler and A123: Great Green PR but......

A Chrysler EV at the LA auto show

I'm out of shape. Yet, yesterday I finished a concrete patio that required thousands of pounds of ready mix - hand mixed 90# bag by 90# bag.

So, if I'm more cynical that usual, it's only because I'm hurting.

Still, when I read about the Chrysler / A123 partnership on EV batteries, I couldn't help but think, GREENWASH.

Already, President Obama's task force has stated that the Chevy Volt really can't help GM's bottom line any time soon. In fact, the Volt might not be profitable for at least another decade or more.

On the other hand, the task force is less than 30 days from forcing Chrysler into bankruptcy if they don't merge with Fiat. So, can EVs really be expected to help Chrysler's bottomline sooner than GM's?

Who cares? Green press is good - even if it isn't realistic - and this announcement is especially good. It's two US companies. So, it isn't just Chrysler auto jobs, but also high tech battery jobs - perfect for Obama's green, high tech, clean energy plans.

Sounds great. It has grant and government loan written all over it, which is fine. I love A123Systems. Still, if gas prices aren't sustainably doubled, at least, in the next few years, the idea that lithium will make help make Chrysler viable in the next decade is pure fantasy.

Is lithium polymer the key to hybrids and EVs?

Hyundai's hybrid weapon?

A couple of years ago, when it was speculated that Toyota would use lithium in the third generation Prius, I thought the world of hybrid cars was ready to explode. Unfortunately, Toyota chose the safe and reliable path and stuck with NiMH.

Since then, there has been a lot of talk about lithium chemistry's, and which one is better. Is it lithium cobalt, phosphorous, magnesium, etc?

At the LA Auto Show, Hyundai said it was lithium polymer.

Today, Technology Review has a pretty interesting piece on Seeo, Inc. and their latest use of "thin films of polymer as the electrolyte and high-energy-density, light-weight electrodes" which result in "safer, longer-lasting, lighter, and cheaper" batteries.

While some critics maintain that polymer electrolytes are not feasible for quick charge hybrids because of low ionic conductivity, the fact that Hyundai seems prepared to bet its hybrid future on related technology is quite interesting.

The General has no lithium supply fears

Lithium supply will not limit EVs

Every company always has to put their best foot forward. To do otherwise, often times, would lead to the end of your business. So companies often wear rose-colored glasses when projecting their business viability forward.

Nonetheless, it was noteworthy today that in a Volt battery update conference, GM stated bluntly that lithium supply constraints would not hamper the Volt, nor the electrification of the automobile.

MIT Breakthrough - Instant plug-in charging

The key to charging in minutes rather than several hours?

MIT scientists have figured out a way to "charge and discharge batteries in a matter of seconds rather than hours" using conventional battery technology, which could enable not just much quicker charging, but lighter batteries.

While the breakthrough could be commercially available in two to three years, typical homeowners may not have enough power available to utilize the breakthrough via home charging. Likewise, manufacturing costs would also have to be reduced in order to be applicable to automobiles.

MIT via InsideLine

Enough lithium to plug-in America?

No shortages for at least 10 years?

Read a pretty interesting lithium article this weekend regarding how Bolivia plans to develop its lithium mining industry - something essential to the development of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

Most notable is the fact that Bolivia doesn't just want to mine lithium, the country also wants to build batteries and maybe even some of the cars that Bolivian lithium will go into producing. Thus, any partnership Bolivia develops for lithium mining, might also have to include battery plants in the country as well - something which could significantly increase partnership costs, in addition to export costs.

In terms of lithium supply Brian Jaskula, a U.S. Geological Survey commodity analyst states, "Everything I've been hearing from the producers and industry consultants indicates there won't be any shortage for the next 10-15 years."