How far will hybrid sales decline in 2009?

Not the year of the hybrid

Six months ago, one might have speculated that 2009 would be the year that hybrid cars forever changed the auto industry. It's not just that hybrids were selling for thousands above MSRP six months ago thanks to high gas prices, but that 2009 would also see the launch of the new Honda Insight and the third generation Toyota Prius.

Yet, as we head into 2009 the hype around these two significant hybrid launches has been squashed. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Toyota push back the launch of the new Prius until as close to 2010 as possible.

With a crappy economy and falling gas prices, hybrid sales appear on track for a record year in 2009. Unfortunately, the record will be for biggest year-to-year sales decline.

$1.66 gas to fuel hybrid bargains

Happy days for hybrid shoppers

Hybrid sales were down 50 percent in November, and they will probably be about the same in December. Likewise, gasoline prices are now averaging $1.66 per gallon. So, aside from economic problems, one can only assume gas prices are significantly contributing to the hybrid sales slide.

Yet, 2009 will see a number of new hybrid cars hitting the road, such as the Honda Insight and the third generation Toyota Prius. Hence, supply glut seems inevitable.

For shoppers of hybrid cars, happy days are coming.

67 mpg Honda Fit hybrid ready in 2010?

Even cheaper than the Insight hybrid?

While US automakers are struggling just to survive to President-Elect Obama's inauguration, Honda is ramping up plans to put many more hybrid vehicles on the road soon. The Honda Insight is just around the corner and the Honda Fit hybrid should be available in 2010.

Reports coming out of Britain are claiming the new Honda hybrid will achieve at least 67 mpg, which is what the report claims the new Honda Insight will achieve.

This is nonsense. Already Honda has stated that the new Insight will not be as fuel efficient as the original Insight, which did achieve close to 67 mpg with the manual version but not the automatic. Of course, the new Insight is a good bit larger. Likewise, since then, the EPA has tightened its testing and the Insight would not be rated as high.

While Honda has indicated that improvements have been made on its hybrid powertrain, especially with regards to weight, the new Insight hybrid will still use a powertrain very similar to the Civic hybrid, which is rated 40 mpg city/ 45 mpg highway.

LA Auto Show and green automakers? Shut up

Proof that BMW is a green automaker?

I've now read a number of articles that discuss how green the LA Auto Show is, and how committed automakers are to green technology. Please. What show were these journalists attending?

The Honda Insight hybrid, the Ford Fusion hybrid, the Mini E, the Toyota Camry Natural Gas hybrid and some fuel cell cars demonstrate how much more committed the auto industry is to green technology? Wow! You have to be drinking some pretty good kool-aide to buy that green message.

Certainly, the Honda Insight is a legitimate effort. But, 25,000 Fusion hybrids per year? Whatever. A few hundred two-seat electric Mini E's? That'll make a difference. A Toyota Camry Natural Gas Hybrid? There are no plans to sell it. Fuel cell cars? Awesome! There's a monkey ready to fly out of my ass with plans for the hydrogen highway.

Automakers aren't green and they won't be green any time soon. Already, US automakers testified before Congress that 35 mpg fleet fuel economy by 2020 was already pushing the limits of possibility. That won't come close to ending foreign oil dependency, nor will it reduce CO2 emissions nearly enough.

Outside of some minor, niche automakers, there is no such thing as a green automaker. Not even close.

LA Auto Show - Volt still shines brightly

Still the green standard

GM debuted the Chevy Volt almost 2 years ago, yet it is still the green standard when it comes to Auto Shows. Sure, there are some pretty cool fuel cell vehicles out there, but PHEVs and EVs are much more realistic in the short to mid-term. In that segment, the Volt still stands above the rest.

Still, the competition is heating up. The Mini E, the Honda Insight and Hyundia's Hybrid Blue Drive were new developments at the LA Auto Show this year. And the competition will heat up even more at the Detroit Show in January when Toyota debuts the Third Generation Prius.

Plus, Hyundai, Honda and Toyota are seeking to challenge the Volt with much cheaper, conventional hybrid cars. Of course, Hyundai and Toyota will also challenge the Volt directly. Will GM ever challenge the Prius and Insight directly?

With two years before the Volt hits the streets, it seems obvious the competition will heat up even more. Will the Volt still dominate next year's LA Auto Show?

Best hybrids of the LA Auto Show

Ford Fusion hybrid

There are going to be a number of new hybrid cars at this year's LA Auto Show. While much of the hype has been focused on the Honda Insight hybrid, it is the Ford Fusion hybrid that I am almost most interested in, almost.

The new Fusion hybrid will debut Ford's new hybrid powertrain - no longer dependent on Ford's Hybrid Synergy Drive. Even more exciting, it will out perform the Toyota Camry hybrid in fuel economy.

Unfortunately, however, Ford only intends to produce 25,000 Fusion and Milan hybrid vehicles per year. That simply doesn't cut the mustard. It also makes me wonder, is Ford's new hybrid powertrain truly cost-competitive?

The bailout, electrification and gas prices

Is electrification going to save the US auto industry?

The article Will Detroit's cash crisis kill the electric car? questions whether the Chevy Volt can survive without the bailout, and whether the electric car dies if Detroit dies.

Please. The electrification of the automobile isn't dependent upon either GM or Detroit. In fact, very major automaker, and a number of minor automakers, are working on some form of electrification.

A smarter question might be, when is the electric car going to be profitable for any major automaker? Or, in what year will the first automaker produce even 100,000 EVs in a single year - something the Chevy Volt won't do for several years after it launches in late 2010.

Reality sucks

Tomorrow, the highly anticipated Honda Insight hybrid will hit the floors of the LA Auto Show. Yet, some are already questioning its viability at today's gas prices because study after study demonstrate that auto consumer interest in fuel economy is driven by one thing: gas prices.

Not global warming. Not foreign oil dependency. Simple economics.

Ultimately, gas prices could remain low for several more years. Coupled with a recession, these lower prices could severely dampen interest in hybrid cars and electric vehicles - vehicles that won't be profitable for already struggling US automakers for many years.

Saving the US auto industry is not going to be easy, and it is certainly not as simple as saving the Volt. While the Volt is undoubtedly an extremely important vehicle, it, and electrification in general, won't help solve any financial woes for many years. What happens until then?

Prius markups? Yeah right. It's incentive time

$1,000 off MSRP

Just came accross an ad for the Toyota Prius offering $1,000 off MSRP here in Southern California - a far cry from the $5,000 + that some dealers were adding onto MSRP this summer.

If you believe that falling gas prices are just the calm before the storm, or you just want to do your part to fight global warming or foreign oil dependency, finding a good deal on a hybrid is getting easier. And, it's going to get even easier.

Competition in the hybrid cars segment will increase significantly in 2009, especially with the launch of the Honda Insight hybrid. Additionally, Toyota has promised a significant increase in Prius production.

2010 Toyota Prius - Hot new details

Not! And don't expect any until January

There was a rumor coming out of England that Toyota planned to sell both the current version of the Toyota Prius and the third generation Toyota Prius concurrently. The current version, according to the rumor, would be sold at a discount to fight off the Honda Insight.

Apparently, however, that rumor is just a rumor. "We haven't heard anything like that here — nothing whatsoever," Toyota spokesman Curt McAllister told Inside Line on Wednesday.

Additionally, McAllister said not to expect any further details regarding the 2010 Prius until the Detroit Auto Show.

Honda takes jab at Big 3 on fuel economy. Has anything changed?

Honda predicted gas-guzzler fade?

While calling loans to US automakers the right thing for the US government to do, Honda CEO Takeo Fukui blamed US automakers for many of their problems saying, "Their response (to fuel economy) was too slow," according to the DetroitNews.

Fukui also indicated that even though the large truck and SUV market was highly profitable at one time, Honda didn't invest much in that segment because the company didn't believe gas-guzzling was sustainably profitable.

Ironically, when Honda was making this decision, the Big 3 were, collectively, betting the farm on gas-guzzlers, even after events like 9/11.

Yet, even today, it is very distressing how little effort the Big 3 are putting into hybrid cars to challenge the Toyota Prius and the soon-to-be-released Honda Insight. Do hybrid cars not make sense to Detroit the same way that large SUVs and trucks made so much sense just a few years ago?

Do automakers suck?

Nissan's electric concept at the Paris Auto Show

As the Fall days have grown darker, so has my mood. Massive bailouts, loans and tax incentives for big, failing US businesses.

Where's my massive bailout? Where's my cheap loan?

I know. I know. The bailout isn't a bailout of Wall Street. It's a bailout of main street. The bailout ensures than one day I can again finance a car that makes no sense in the modern world.

Yet, soon, we'll have Toyota Prius derivatives, including a plug-in version, and the the Honda Insight hybrid. Even better, we'll have the Chevy Volt built here in America. There's hope, right?

Yes. A tiny, little sliver of hope.

However, it'll still be at least a decade before these vehicles, combined, account for even 10 percent of US sales, probably longer. Maybe far longer. In today's digital, business at the speed of light world, automakers are giant, super slow oafs. Dinosaurs. All of them.

Can automakers change? Or, is it time to accept that creative destruction is the only way forward?

Honda Insight in Paris: Cheaper, not better than the Prius?

Not as efficient as the Prius in the city?

The new Honda Insight hybrid will be the first real challenge to the Toyota Prius. But is it really a Prius fighter?

While the Insight IMA hybrid powertrain coupled with its 1.3 liter engine will be a bit smaller and lighter than the powertrain in the Honda Civic hybrid, it will still offer very similar fuel economy to the Civic hybrid. Thus, while the Insight might equal the Prius on the highway, the Prius will far out-perform the Insight in city fuel economy.

Of course, the Insight will be cheaper than the Civic hybrid and the Prius, making up for some of this city efficiency, but it will also be smaller than both hybrid vehicles. How much is extra space worth?

Insight versus the Prius? The choice is yours, and choice is what really matters.

We all want plug-in hybrids, but can we afford them?

Honda has it right?

Plug-in vehicles. It's the new darling of the automotive world. It's the future. The saviour of the US auto industry. Still, when does this future make cost-effective sense for BOTH consumers and automakers?

For the past few months Hybridcarblog has run a survey asking 'What is the most you would pay for the Chevy Volt'?. Almost half those responding, 47 percent, don't want to pay more than $20,000 for a such vehicle. Another 40 percent won't pay more than $30,000.

Yet, a vehicle like the Chevy Volt will probably cost about $40,000. Certainly, at first, a $7,500 plug-in tax credit will help. Still, how likely is that after the credit expires that GM can sell the Volt for $30,000 AND make a profit?

Is the plug-in revolution really just right around the corner? In what year will the first automaker make a million plug-in vehicles per year? Are cheap hybrid cars, such as the Honda Insight, a much better solution in the next 10 years than plug-ins?

Honda Insight - Can it live up to the hype?

Too little too late?

Sure, it looks sort of like the Toyota Prius, yet the Insight's design lines are still a bit more sleek and refined than the Prius. But consumers don't buy the Prius for its looks - or do they - they buy it for its fuel economy, right? How will the Honda Insight compare?

Without a major hybrid powertrain upgrade, it seems far-fetched to believe the Insight will beat the Prius in city fuel economy, but if the Insight pummels the Prius on the highway, will that give the Insight an edge?

Or, is it purely price that will give the Insight a chance against the Prius? Will Honda really sell these new hybrid cars for less than $20,000? What do you expect from the Insight?

Hybrid aerodynamics driven by fuel economy

Why does it look like the Prius?

The Toyota Prius is the king of hybrid cars. Yet, there are many that hate its design. Thus, now that the world has seen images of both the Honda Insight and the Chevy Volt, there is even more hate in the hybrid world, as these hybrid vehicles have come to resemble the Prius in many ways.

Honda's Chuck Schifsky, a Honda spokesman, adds some insight into this issue. Regarding the Insight design Schifsky recently went on record and stated, "It was done that way because it was the most aerodynamic design, and we were going for fuel economy."

Thus, the Clarity fuel cell vehicle and the CR-Z, another future Honda hybrid, will also share many of these ' prius' design cues. These vehicles, just as the Volt, however, do not resemble the Prius because of its sale's success, but because of an aerodynamic focus on fuel economy.

Chevy Volt hated by bipolar America

Too Prius like?

As if that's a bad thing. Yet, the Internet and the Chevy Volt Nation are up in arms. This is not the Chevy Volt that debuted at NAIAS in 2007.

"Huge disappointment," and an "unlikely love child of a one-nighter involving GM's concept and the Prius" are some of the criticisms that AutoObserver reported.

For many of these critics the Volt was the anti-Prius, an American-made bad ass electric muscle car that would put America back on top of the auto world. A vehicle that would allow Americans to continue to act like Americans, but without the guilt. We'd no longer waste gas, instead we'd waste electricity, which is so much more 21st century.

But, now the Volt looks too much like the Prius. Well, some times intelligence needs to trump vanity. Finish: Chevy Volt hated by bipolar America

Honda Insight hybrid returns

It's back

Honda's new dedicated hybrid, intended to take on the Toyota Prius, will be called the Honda Insight, the same name as Honda's original two-seat hybrid. Honda isn't yet releasing many details about this new hybrid, but it is expected to debut the new car at the Paris Auto Show. And, according to some reports, the new Honda Insight hybrid will be available for sale next April.

Finally, some real competition in the hybrid cars segment is emerging.

Insight, Prius show off fuel economy at HybridFest

A few of the hypermilers at HybridFest

So, I was at HybridFest this weekend in Madison, WI, which is always kicked off with a MPG Challenge. This year's event brought in dozens of hypermilers from across the US, and while there are always various types of hybrid vehicles participating, the Honda Insight and the Toyota Prius always dominate the competition in terms of number of participants and fuel economy.

This year's top fuel economy was achieved by a Honda Insight, which achieved 108.72 mpg. All Insights combined achieved an average 87 mpg. The top Prius hypermiler achieved 98.7 mpg. All Prius hybrids combined achieved an average of 74 mpg.

Suzuki's possible hybrid

Hybrid ready?

"Of greater interest to enthusiasts — and looking close to production-ready — is the Kizashi 2....... The two-seater is powered by a DOHC 3.6-liter V6 mated to a six-speed automatic gearbox, with provisions for a hybrid powertrain."

With the loss of the Honda Insight, couldn't the hybrid cars segment use a hot little two-seater?

Washington doesn't give "a damn about Detroit"?

Reap what you sow?

This morning Angus Mackenzie wrote on his blog, "The main difference between the Japanese and American auto industries is that the Japanese government does what it can to help its automakers succeed, whereas in Washington, no-one gives a damn about Detroit."

Is this true? Is this a new or old phenomenon?

Since the 1970's there has been growing concern regarding foreign oil dependency. Thus, the last 5 or 6 Presidents have stated that America needs to do something to end foreign oil dependency to protect National security. For decades, however, U.S. automakers lobbied Congress to minimize any fuel economy regulations because such legislation might slow fuel cells - which have now been just around the corner for the last 3 decades. Yet, cost effective fuel cells and a hydrogen highway might still be decades away from cost-effective reality.

In the 90s, U.S. automakers were each given 100s of millions to develop the next generation of fuel efficient vehicles by the Clinton Administration. What did America receive in return from U.S. automakers for this investment of tax payer dollars?

Record sales of the biggest gas-guzzling , foreign oil dependency-increasing vehicles as Honda launched the Honda Insight hybrid and Toyota launched the Toyota Prius hybrid.

Today, America is bent over an oil barrel, and America's foreign oil dependency problems are certain to get far worse before they get better. Thus, can Detroit really blame Washington and America for being a little disappointed?