Gas prices hit 15 month high

$3.00 here we come

The average price of gasoline in the US is now a bit over $2.70, the highest average in 15 months, despite weak demand. Nonetheless, many analysts believe $3.00 gas could soon be the nation's average.

Eventually, however, without an uptick in the economy, gas prices will probably begin to trend downward later in the year.

2010: An "ominous" year ahead for gas prices?

Ring in the new gas prices

Last year gas prices were almost a $1 lower than today, and by this weekend, gasoline prices could be at their highest point since 2008, along with diesel and home heating oil.

Analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover calls the move up an "ominous sign for the year ahead."

Might be a good time for potential hybrid consumers to make a visit to their dealership. If gas prices keep rising, so will demand for hybrid cars. Thus, today's hybrid deals might be the best deals of the year.

Higher gas prices good for Volt, but what about GM?

When will it be profitable?

At a plug-in conference hosted by GM in Detroit last week, news of rising gas prices was seen as a good thing.

"Every penny added to the price of gas makes alternative power just a little more attractive," said Tony Posawatz, head of the Volt program. "If petroleum hit $150 a barrel and stays there, he and others agree, the low cost of electricity would make plug-ins fairly competitive on an operating cost basis."

So, what's good for the Chevy Volt is good for GM?

Let's say gas hits a sustained $150 per barrel and $4.00+ at the pump in 2011, during the first full year of Volt production. That would be good for GM? While such gas prices might make the Volt more competitive - after a $7500 tax credit - what about the Silverado, Traverse or Impala, for instance?

Today, GM's profits are not driven by fuel efficiency. Can the Chevy Cruze and a limited production Volt change the troubles GM felt during the gas spike of 2008?

It seems to me, what's good for the Volt is not good for GM, at least not any time soon. While higher gas prices might make the Volt more competitive, can higher gas prices really make GM more competitive and profitable without radical changes to their product lineup?

Trucks regaining hybrid and small car market share

Simply un-American?

According to Kelly Blue Book data, used small cars and hybrid vehicles have dropped in value as gas prices have declined.

On the other hand, truck values are up 23 percent, more than recovering their 18 percent value decline caused by last year's gas spike.

While the government continues to invest many billions of dollars into making the US auto industry more fuel efficient, isn't such an investment risky without also managing the future cost of fuel?

Political leadership? Congress set to offer up another $1/2 billion for hybrid research

1 million and counting

Between automakers, their banks, suppliers etc. the government is into the US auto industry for $100 billion+. Additionally, the government is handing out $50 billion in loans to help automakers increase fuel efficiency. On top of that, if a Committee OK on hybrid research passes through Congress, another $590 million will go to hybrid research.

Why? Is there really any mystery?

No. I'm not referring to the fact that Toyota has sold more than a million Toyota Prius hybrids. Regardless of Toyota's Prius success it's obvious that hybrids and electric vehicles are over-hyped niche vehicles. They are going nowhere fast.

Unless gas prices rise significantly. How much more research do we really need to validate that point?

Without massive, long term government incentives (including tons of pork and waste) or much higher gas prices, these vehicles will not achieve sufficient economies of scale for many, many years. Ultimately, America's energy policy simply does not support the costs of developing efficient technologies in the real world.

Yet, the cost of gas, for instance, is far higher than the pump price. Why? Unfortunately, it's far easier to spend an extra $500 million on top of tens of billions than it is to show some political courage and to confront the tough issues. It's all about incumbency anyway, right?

Gas prices primed to stunt interest in fuel efficiency again

National average at $2.49

Gas prices continue to trend downward, and as America heads into the winter, gas prices should fall even more. And, if the recession sticks into 2010, prices could be, overall, cheaper next year than this year.

Coincidentally, this decline in gas prices could continue as automakers begin a more serious roll out of hybrids, small cars, and other efficient vehicles.

With new CAFE standards, CO2 worries, and a lingering memory of $4.00 gas, this temporary decline in gas prices won't kill alternative, fuel efficient technologies. Nevertheless, without higher gas prices, consumer interest in fuel efficiency is certain to again fall below cup holders in order of importance for consumers.

The great oil crash of 2010

But only the calm before the storm?

Speculation. Is it a dirty word? Should the entire future's market be shut down? Should their be higher margins and position limits on oil trading? The government might soon decide these questions, at least as far as the energy markets are concerned.

Yet, regardless of any government action, oil and gasoline prices are almost assuredly heading downward. Oil supplies are ridiculously high, gasoline inventories keep rising, and the world economy simply is not recovering. And, despite the fact that gas prices are far less than last summer, Americans are driving less. One way or another, the air has to come out of this bubble.

But is that really a good thing? Won't a few years of cheaper gas simply result in more complacency regarding the dangers of foreign oil dependency and in the stagnation of alternative energy development? Ultimately, isn't cheap foreign oil, like cheap cigarettes, bad for America?

Rising gas prices making auto consumers skittish

Small car interest increasing, for now

A new study suggests that consumers are paying close attention to the rising cost of gasoline, and that attention is having an impact on auto purchases. Many consumers are downsizing their engine, or even moving into smaller cars.

Others, however, are waiting to see if these higher gas prices are sustainable. If not, another swing back towards larger vehicles is expected.

Still, without $3.00+ gas prices for at least a year, should anyone expect a fundamental product change from US automakers?

$4:00 gas in 2010: How does the US fare?

Will trucks still sell?

I'm not predicting $4.00 gas in 2010. It's possible, but so is $2.00 gas.

Still, what if gas prices hit $4.00+ for all of 2010? Wouldn't the auto industry need another bailout? Would China bail the US out - hah! - again?

Earlier today I read that Chrysler's biggest worry right now is gas prices. Since it'll be at least a year before any of Fiat's more fuel efficient models hit the US, Chrysler worries that high gas prices could kill it's profitable vehicles - all gas guzzlers - and its business.

Yet, the odds on $4.00 gas in 2010 are pretty good.

Isn't it time to take foreign oil dependence a bit more seriously? With public polls showing such consensus on this issue, why is foreign oil dependency but a sound bite in the political arena?

$2.51 gas: When will it be $4.00?

Under $2.00 before $4.00?

Today, gas prices are already higher than most were predicting only a few months ago. While most energy analysts and traders foresaw a normal, seasonal bump in gas prices, the quick spike in both gas and oil prices has surprised most. However, as markets are often driven by psychology, many are now calling for a sustained rise in oil prices.

Of course, most - if not all - are only predicting a further, marginal rise in prices. $4.00 gas will not happen this year without the help of a very nasty hurricane season or some violent attack in an oil-important country.

Is a temporary $3.00 gas scare enough to re-ignite American interest back towards fuel economy? Can $3.00 gas create another huge spike in the sale of hybrid cars?

I'd say it's doubtful. Moreover, as we head into fall and winter, gas and oil prices are almost certain to subside a bit. Yet, this year feels much like the few years preceding the 2008 gas spike - when companies like GM and Chrysler claimed $4.00 gas came surprisingly and unbelievably fast - despite the steady methodical increase in prices year after year.

Are we heading into the same trap again? Is $4.00 gas far closer than we think it is?

Getting high on gas: C'mon $5!

$5.00 gas: America's downfall?

I'm not a big fan of the new CAFE rules put forth by the Obama administration. First, I'm not quite sure that US automakers are capable of profitability in achieving these new rules. Second, I don't think this CAFE rewrite goes far enough.

For years I've asked numerous major auto executives from the Big 3, especially GM, why aren't there more hybrid cars from US automakers? Why can't US automakers sell such vehicles as foreign oil dependency fighters?

Cheap gas and lack of profits has always been the answer.

So, what's changed? Will UAW concessions really make these vehicles suddenly much more profitable? Will CAFE force Americans to accept higher prices for achieving better fuel economy, especially if gas prices don't rise significantly?

I don't know, but I'd place my bets on a much smaller US auto industry struggling for profitability for many, many years. And, that's my optimistic scenario. I mean, what happens if gas spikes significantly in the next couple of years? They'll have nothing to sell that offers any profitability.

And, over the last few weeks, and especially the last few days, oil has again become a very interesting story. Whether its geopolitical worries, such as new Nigerian rebel action against oil interests, growing Chinese demand, or even something as simple as a US oil refinery fire, the volatility around oil prices is explosive.

Yet, most of the world is in recession. Even without an economic recovery in much of the world's economic powers, including the US, drastically rising oil prices are still a threat.

Thus, America's economic recovery is almost certain to coincide with a significant increase in energy prices, especially gas prices. The sooner gas prices force automakers, and American auto consumers, to realize that Obama's CAFE rules should be viewed as child's play - which is not Obama's fault and he should be commended for his leadership - the sooner US automakers will realize that meeting CAFE won't be enough.

If America's automakers are to lead the world into the future, they better blow these new CAFE rules away as soon as possible. Otherwise, let's stop assisting the US auto industry in any way and retrain these workers to build wind mills and solar panels.

SAE: Cheap gas still a hurdle to efficient vehicles

The easiest path to green vehicles

On the first day of the SAE World Congress, auto executives claimed the technology to achieve new CAFE requirements - 35 mpg - is available, but costly. Thus, without higher fuel prices, bringing hybrid and electric vehicles "into mass production at an affordable price could still take decades."

Increased fuel efficiency standards? Whatever

One Katrina away from $3.00 gas

So, fuel efficiency standards are going up a little by 2011. Whohoo!

Yet, whom knows how many flex fuel credits and EV loopholes Congress will offer automakers. Loopholes are the Congressional speciality.

With or without an increase in fuel efficiency standards, automakers better be preparing for higher gas prices. Numerous energy analysts, such as Boone Pickens, are predicting another huge gas price spike around 2011 - and this time it might be permanent. And, yesterday, Cambridge Energy Research Associates warned that a "potentially powerful and long-lasting aftershock" is going to follow the huge decline in oil prices that has been felt the last year.

This time automakers won't be able to use the excuse, "Nobody could have predicted such a gas price spike".

Oil Prices Rising: Where's the demand?

Just a weakening dollar?

2 weeks ago Boone Pickens called $65 oil before it falls back under $40. We aren't there yet - only just over $50 - but the recent surge in oil prices suggests Pickens might be on to something, even far sooner than Boone might have believed.

It's not that oil prices won't ever decline, it's just that the trend is undoubtedly upwards. More important, once America's economy gets rolling again, coupled with the growing world economy, oil demand is going to outpace production and refinement, and prices will spike. It's just that simple.

But, why is oil rising so much today?

Some say its all just a hedge against the declining dollar. So, that's a good thing?

I say its just more painting on the wall that foreign oil dependency has no future, and the longer the US waits to address this issue, the more it's going to cost.

I know it's more fun to focus on AIG bonuses worth a few hundred million versus a risk of a few trillion, but isn't the future more important?

Gas prices won't help hybrid sales in 2009

No production cuts

CNBC had some coverage on OPEC's decision not to cut oil demand. The consensus amongst the analysts was that oil prices will probably jump a little this summer, but $2.00 gas will probably be the average through 2009. However, the long term view is much higher prices - assuming the economy eventually gets better.

2011: The next gas crisis

$60 before gas falls below $40

Boone Pickens was at it again today, pointing out that the US sent $13 billion to foreign countries for our foreign oil addiction in February - a month when US consumers are driving much less than in the past. Likewise, Pickens predicted $75 oil by the end of 2009, setting up an oil crisis similar to this past summer in 2011. (CNBC)

And from there, presumably, it only gets worse.

Playing the gas card

Gaza lifting gas prices

What will the price of gasoline be this spring? $1.00? $2.00? $3.00?

That is completely dependent upon whom you ask.

This morning I read an article that both cites those whom think that gas prices have bottomed, and those whom think gas has yet to bottom.

In the last week, oil prices are up 25 percent as troubles rage in Gaza, the root of much of this increase according to some. Yet, on the floor of the NYMEX, traders are seeing no increase in demand, and if the economy keeps tanking, more demand destruction is possible.

Yet, even if gas prices bottomed in December, months of cheaper gas were unable to lift demand for new vehicles. In fact, if December auto sales represent the future for US automakers, even a structured bankruptcy won't save Detroit.

And, if cheap gas wasn't able to buoy automakers, what happens if there is a dramatic spike in gas prices? Can unprofitable $40,000 plug-in hybrids really be the solution to this problem? Have decades of cheap gas already killed the US auto industry, but we just don't know it yet?

$1.00 gas by early 2009

When will these levels return?

CNBC just reported that the Gulf Oil CEO believes that a gallon of gas could drop to just $1.00 per gallon by early 2009. Part of the OPEC conspiracy?

If car buyers return, will demand for hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius, remain as high if gas hits $1.00 per gallon? Is that a stupid question? Or, are Americans that stupid?

Yearly gas demand down 6.4 percent

Will it spark a return to guzzlers?

Year on year demand for gasoline is down 6.4 percent according to MasterCard data. However, the last two weeks have seen an uptick in gasoline purchases, as gas prices have dropped significantly.

With oil prices down more than $3.00 already today and a huge build in gasoline inventories predicted for tomorrow, it seems gas prices will drop even lower.

Of course, for now, cheaper gas probably won't inspire a run on incentivized gas-guzzlers, or any other vehicles, as the majority of potential consumers simply can't qualify for credit.

National gas prices below $3.00

Lowest prices in a year

The national average for a gallon of gas is now $2.92 according to new reports, and prices could be primed for even bigger declines.

Despite OPEC cuts, the price of oil continues to trend downward. And, if the US remains mired in a recession for an extended period of time, oil prices could drop below $40.00 per barrel according to some analysts. (AP)

Foreign oil dependency: It's in the government's hands

Converting a Prius to a plug-in Prius

A lot of Toyota Prius drivers, as well as the owners of other hybrid cars, can't wait to be able to plug-in their hybrids. Plugging in significantly increases fuel economy and, therefore, significantly reduces both carbon and foreign oil footprints.

Sadly, however, all hybrid drivers combined make up a minuscule percentage of American drivers. Converting all of these drivers into plug-in hybrid drivers would have very little overall effect on either global warming or foreign oil dependency.

Many more need to be converted into hybrid vehicles and other fuel efficient technologies. FINISH: Foreign oil dependency - It's in the government's hands

"Shallow" consumers returning to gas guzzlers

Cheaper gas and incentives help sustain SUV sales

“The data over the last few months show consumers are shallow — they’ll go and buy a large SUV when gas prices go down,” states Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. “So there will always be those consumers that like these vehicles, whether it’s because of their style or size, and they’ll be lured into buying them when incentives are high or gas prices slide.”

With gas prices hot on the biggest weekly drop ever and a number of energy analysts now predicting $2.00 gas by next year, it'll be interesting to see just how shallow consumers can become.

How much lower can gas prices go?

A Saudi Arabian oil refinery

On Friday I was shocked to hear that world-wide oil demand is down to its lowest levels in 15 years. Thus, OPEC is considering production cuts to stop falling oil prices. Yet, if the now world-wide recession sticks, can oil prices go anywhere but down until an economic recovery occurs?

In the last month the price of gas has dropped $.32 cents to $3.35. A year ago the price was $2.76. How soon, if ever, will that price be breached?

$50.00 oil or $200.00 oil?

Would $50.00 oil kill the Volt?

Despite gas lines popping up in many Southeast US cities, Donald Trump believes that oil prices could drop as low as $20 per barrel very soon. I was running some errands yesterday and overheard Trump on one of the business stations claim that gas prices - the lifeblood of the US economy according to Trump - were set for a huge decline. While Trump did cite speculation, he focused all his blame on OPEC.

Can OPEC affect US politics, automotive future?

Dirty politics?

OPEC is meeting today and there are many that are assuming that OPEC isn't going to do anything drastic, at least not yet. However, because of slim margins in world oil supply and refining capacity, OPEC - many analysts believe - can cut production and keep oil prices above $100 per barrel. Nonetheless, those same analysts believe the sweet range for OPEC is between $80 and $100. This keeps profits high for OPEC, and it reduces gasoline prices a bit in the US.

These analysts believe that OPEC is trying to help trend oil prices lower because high gas prices make alternative fuels and alternative technologies, such as hybrid cars and EVs, far more cost effective, which is a threat to OPEC.

Is OPEC powerful enough to stunt alternative technologies in the US, and are Americans foolish enough to fall for such a stunt?

Did high gas prices change your holiday plans?

Did you stay home this Labor Day?

Up until Gustav started blowing into the Gulf of Mexico, gas prices had been receding around most of the US. Still, gas prices are still very high, at least historically-speaking. Did gas prices change your Labor Day vacation plans?

My holiday plans took me through California's Central Coast. Along the way, I was a bit surprised at the proportion of hybrid cars I saw on the road versus non-hybrids. Now, this is an area I seldom frequent, so maybe its the norm in this region, but as I escaped LA traffic, the percentage of hybrids to non-hybrids definitely increased. Could it be that those whom drive more fuel efficient vehicles were less deterred by high gas prices?

Did gas prices change your Labor Day plans?

Gustav: The end of gas guzzlers

Another Gulf Coast oil killer?

Hurricane Gustav is building and the latest reports suggest that it could be a Katrina-sized hurricane as it heads into the Gulf. Obviously, we all remember the horrible devastation caused by Katrina. Yet, even if Katrina doesn't again flood New Orleans, it could still be just as destructive upon Gulf oil rigs and refinery facilities.

And if Gustav does hit hard, gas prices will move well beyond $4.00 gas. $5.00 or $6.00 seems quite plausible.

How cost-effective will gas guzzlers then be, regardless of many thousands in incentives? How about hybrid vehicles? Are you ready?

Energy policy: No faith in either candidate?

Can either candidate really motivate Congress?

According to a Cars.com survey, a majority of Americans don't believe that either Barack Obama or John McCain can lead America to a significant change in energy policy.

"In an online survey of 1,052 individuals 18 years or older across demographic groups, a majority (50%) believed that neither John McCain nor Barack Obama could bring down gas prices as president. A majority (48%) also rejected the idea that either candidate had an edge when it comes to working effectively with automakers to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles."

Cheaper gas prices and more fuel efficient cars? Aren't such expectations unrealistic and, even worse, contradictory? If gas prices are made significantly cheaper, won't Americans quickly forget all about fuel economy?

Could lower gas prices dupe Americans again?

National gas average below $4.00

Today, more Buicks are sold in China than in America. Hummers are hot and overall SUV sales are up 43 percent compared to last year. "In China, size matters," says Zhang Linsen, the 44-year-old founder of a media and graphic design company. "People want to have a car that shows off their status in society. No one wants to buy small."

Just 15 years ago, there were no private cars in China. Within 20 years, China could be consuming more oil than the US, and the majority of Chinese would still have yet to own a car. And it isn't just China. India and the Middle East are also seeing huge increases in oil consumption.

Today, however, gas prices are dropping and the national average now sits below $4.00. If this decline continues, will more and more Americans forget their fuel efficient concerns, or have the US auto industry and consumers finally hit the point of no return?

Warren Buffett talks oil

Forget windfall taxes

Warren Buffet, an open advocate for Barrack Obama, is on CNBC as I write this post. Thus far, he has stated that today's oil prices are driven by supply and demand, not speculation. He said for everyone speculating that oil prices will go higher, another is speculating that they will go lower. Additionally, he called windfall profit taxes on oil companies a very bad idea. He claimed if you tax oil companies for windfall profits, then you should tax corn, copper and steel producers, for example, for windfall profits as well.

On a final, unrelated note, Buffett claimed the tax code needs to be reworked and that the super rich need to be taxed far more and everyone else, far less.

I agree, high gas prices are good

8 reasons to cheer high gas prices

"By its very definition, oil is crude. It's time we develop more refined energy sources and that will not happen without a cost-driven shift in demand," writes Chris Pummer this morning on MarketWatch while providing 8 reasons why high gas prices are a good thing, seriously.

Obviously, I completely agree. Wars, wars, wars. How many more wars do we need before the costs of war outweigh the benefits of oil? Perhaps oil has always been about war?

Isn't it time to end our crudely powered life in favor of a more refined, intelligent life?

Fast Money - $4.00 gas is here to stay

$4.00: The new norm?

I watch CNBC a good bit every day during the week, and it's a very interesting channel to watch the state of oil because this is a channel that caters to oil experts, especially in terms of investing - including trading and speculating. Many 'in the know' believe that oil is ready for a pop, believing that a significant percentage of oil prices are a speculator-driven bubble.

The guys on Fast Money are semi-split on the causes of the price of oil, but they do believe that oil prices will be very turbulent in the short term and the long term. Yes, there could be declines in the price of oil, even big price drops, but eventually higher pricing points will be breached, they agreed.

Anyway, these bright Wall Street folks believe that $4.00 gallon gas, for the most part, is here to stay, regardless of the price of oil.

Oil: Democrats are morons

Of course, Republicans aren't any better

Led by Democrats, today a Judiciary Committee is going after oil companies and traders to reduce the price of gasoline. At the same time, many of these same Democrats are calling for the US to get off foreign oil. So, their plan is to 'manage' the price of gasoline lower to reduce foreign oil dependency?

High gas prices are changing consumer behavior in a big way. We're going smaller. We're taking public transportation. We're buying hybrid cars and other more fuel efficient automobiles - something Congress has never been able to accomplish, despite spending billions of tax payer dollars for this purpose. Even more important, massive amounts of capital are flowing into R&D for foreign oil dependency-fighting technologies.

Nothing will get America off foreign oil faster than high prices and new technologies. Ultimately, high gas prices, not Congress, are pushing America towards intelligent behavior. Yes it hurts, but in the long run, we'll be better off, unless Congress again screws it up.

$6.00 gas: Bring it on

As if there are no costs to cheap gas

I just finished reading an article about gasoline protesters - people protesting the 'high' cost of gasoline. Some of these knuckleheads believe that protesting the high cost of gasoline can also raise awareness about environmental issues, as if cheap gas is good for the environment. Wow.

Today, Americans are funding a Hugo Chavez-led revolution in Columbia, for example, that seeks to fight against any American interests. Our thirst for cheap gas has funded hate against America around the world, and yet foreign oil dependency has no costs, despite the 10's of billions we spend every year on non-war costs just to secure foreign oil (Maybe we should pay that cost at the pump?)?

High gas prices are pushing solar power, biofuels, sales of hybrid cars and, even more important, R&D into new technologies that might forever end oil dependence in a cheap, clean and cost-effective way. High gas prices are breeding innovation. A return to cheap gas - ok, cheaper gas - will only lead to technological stagnation and greater pain in the future.

$6.00 gas. Bring it on.

Just the beginning? Attack on oil tanker spikes gas prices

$4.00 gas: Calm before the storm?

An attack on a Japanese oil tanker caused oil prices to surge over $117 per barrel as retail gas prices hit an average $3.50 per gallon. Is the attack just a taste of things to come? (more)

Higher oil prices - Have Americans learned?

Bring it on

This morning the dollar picked up a little strength and the price of a barrel of oil dropped immediately. A few hours later oil prices broke mid-day records. Is oil going back down to $3.00 or up to $5.00?

I don't care. I drive a few thousand miles, at most, every year. Instead of driving I've spent the last several years building my life around LA's Metro light rail and subway system. Apparently, I'm not alone as mass-transit use has reached a 50 year high.

If the dollar strengthens and the price of oil stabilizes, will American continue to embrace mass transit, hybrid vehicles, and smaller SUVs? Have we changed? Or, when prices drop, will I just have more seats to choose from on my subway ride?