What do 100,000 Volts, Leafs or Prius hybrids per year really mean?

No impact on foreign oil dependence for 2 decades?

For several years now, Toyota has sold more than 100,000 Prius hybrids per year in the US. In fact, Toyota has sold more than 1 million hybrid cars in the US alone.

Yet, what effect have one million hybrids had on US foreign oil dependence? None.

Soon, GM will launch the highly-anticipated Chevy Volt, yet it might be a decade before GM is selling 100,000 Volts per year. Likewise, late this year Nissan will begin US production of the Leaf electric car. When Nissan's new production facility is fully operational, it will produce up to 150,000 Leafs per year.

Yet again, what impact will these vehicles have on foreign oil dependence?

Unfortunately, according to numerous studies, ALL electric vehicle sales in the US, combined, won't have any noticeable impact on foreign oil dependence for probably another TWO decades, and even then the effect might still be marginal.

Certainly, automakers have to start electrifying the automobile somewhere, and the Prius, Volt and Leaf are all noble and important products. Nonetheless, their impact upon the environment and foreign oil dependence will remain meaningless for decades.

Is this really the best that America can do?

Forget hybrids and EVs: Just make cars smaller and lighter?

Could it be this easy?

According to an Oxford Study the best path to decreasing emissions in autos, in the short term, requires a serious decrease in weight and size.

Over the medium term, however, the study finds that hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius, offer "significant savings" while helping electric drive trains evolve.

While EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles offer interesting potential long term, all have serious issues to overcome in the short to medium term, such as raw material availability.

Finally, first generation biofuels offer some localized uses. Second generation biofuels show more promise, but will still probably be constrained by land availability. Algae shows some probability of overcoming the land availability issue, but massive innovations and breakthroughs are still required.

US Nissan Leaf production loaned into action

Coming soon

With the help of a $1.4 billion US Department of Energy loan, Nissan is on the path towards US production of the Nissan Leaf electric car, as well the assembly of the Leaf's lithium-ion battery packs.

Limited Leaf production should begin later this year, but when the plant is fully operational, Nissan will be able to produce 150,000 Leafs and 200,000 battery packs at the new Smyrna, Tennessee plant.

Pricing has not been released, but CEO Carlos Ghosn has stated that the Leaf will only cost about 1 - 2 percent more than a gasoline car.

A plan to be 40 percent electric by 2020?

Are Americans ready and willing?

Calling foreign oil dependency “one of the most devastating policy failures of our time”, ex New York Governor, George Pataki, called for new programs to ensure that America is 40 percent electric drive vehicles by 2020.

Today, most experts predict that electric drive penetration will be about 3 - 7 percent by 2020. Therefore, to increase the rate of adoption, Pataki suggests a number of new policies, such as rebates for EVs instead of tax credits, tax exemptions for automakers and incentives for battery development.

Mary Ann Wright, VP and Managing Director, Johnson Controls Business Accelerator for Advanced Energy Storage Solutions, was far less optimistic and claimed demand for such vehicles simply doesn't exist to achieve 40 percent electric vehicle penetration by 2020. Ultimately, "gasoline is too cheap."

Global Insight: 20 percent plugged in by 2030

Still a ways to go

Global Insight has released a new white paper on plug-in vehicles according to GreenCarCongress.

The white paper, Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case, forecasts that pure electric cars will achieve a 9.9 percent market share by 2030, while plug-in hybrids will achieve a 8.6 percent market share by 2030.

Like other studies, battery reliability and costs, infrastructure and consumer expectations are the critical issues to overcome to increase plug-in adoption.

Toyota powertrain exec admires Chevy Volt

A sensible approach to plug-ins?

In a recent interview with CNN, Bill Reinert, Toyota's head of advanced powertrain research, explains that Toyota is not going to rush into pure electric cars. A combination of costs and technological limitations ensure, according to Reinert, that EVs are still far from mass consumer adoption.

Therefore, underwhelming EV consumers with expensive technology that falls short of expectations could slow EV penetration long term, according to Reinert.

However, in the interview Reinert does single out the Chevy Volt as a more sensible approach to pure EVs because it provides a realistic solution to range anxiety.

Audi exec continues hybrid and EV slam

Still not viable even after a $7500 tax credit?

Yesterday, Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen, continued his attack on the political love affair between D.C. politicians, including President Obama, and electric cars, claiming that plug-ins were probably two decades away from widespread use.

"The 50 percent or so price increase that the Volt represents over a similar gasoline car cannot be offset through the savings from reduced fuel compensation," de Nysschen said. "The only way to offset the extreme premium is through taxpayer-funded subsidies," and that according to de Nysschen, "is not sustainable."

Instead, de Nysschen claims the free market should determine the winners, and according to de Nysschen, clean diesel would be a winner that would significantly reduce foreign oil consumption.

California cities battle to lure Tesla

And the EV wars are on, kind of

Just when it seemed the city of Downey, CA was a shoe-in to become the next electric vehicle assembly plant for Tesla, Long Beach stepped up the stakes.

A few weeks ago, Tesla and Downey appeared to agree on a $8.9 million deal to set up an assembly plant.

Yesterday, however, the city of Long Beach approved a plan to offer Tesla $28 million to build an assembly plant in that city.

Will it all come down to the Benjamins?

Ford seeks tax credits to begin EV battery production

The Ford Focus EV

If Ford can acquire about $120 million in state funding from Michigan, the automaker will invest up to $500 million to develop batteries for its EVs in the state while hiring up to 1,000 workers.

If the future of the automobile is the battery, it seems Michigan has no choice but to acquiesce to Ford's demands if keeping Ford in Michigan is job one.

VW UP electric car coming to US market

The UP Lite at the LA Auto Show

There aren't many details, but it has been reported that an EV version of the UP, based closely on the UP Lite concept version pictured in this post, is coming to the US market. Early word suggests the new EV will be called the Space UP! Blue.

After 1 million miles, interesting plug-in hybrid results

A Prius being converted into a plug-in hybrid

The Department of Energy has now logged more than 1 million testing miles with their fleet of plug-in hybrids, and they've collected some interesting data.

First, driver behavior, charging frequency and environmental conditions have significant impact on plug-in hybrid efficiency. Second, driving patterns suggest per day driving range is much less than expected. Third, forgetting to plug-in is common and should be expected. And finally, non-charging energy use could be significant.

In Best plug-in vehicles: EVs, Range Extended EVs, or Plug-in Hybrids? I suggested that no one plug-in vehicle is a game changer, and this data doesn't change my mind.

Nonetheless, this data does seem to show that consumers might not be ready to to fully utilize plug-in vehicles, especially plug-in hybrid or range extended electric vehicles. For instance, if consumers do not piously plug-in, the cost-effectiveness of plug-ins can decrease significantly, especially as the battery size increases. Considering that plug-ins aren't very cost-effective to start, this could be a serious issue.

Gas Tax: Good idea, but "no political interest"

Plug-in adoption to be slow and gradual

In the past week Nissan/Renault head, Carlos Ghosn has been on an EV publicity tour. Yesterday, however, Ghosn seemed to take a more tempered approach towards electric vehicles.

"We're not going to take the market by storm," said Ghosn at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "Electricity is going to complement oil."

Still, Ghosn believes that EVs could reach 10 percent worldwide marketshare by 2020, one of the higher estimates in the industry.

At the same meeting Steve Rattner, one time leader of the Obama Auto Task Force, was asked about a gas tax.

"It's obviously what we should do," Rattner said. "There's no political will. There's no political interest."

Nissan, Fed Ex ask gov for $124 billion for plug-ins

The Nissan Leaf electric vehicle

A group calling itself the Electrification Coalition, led by Nissan and Federal Express, is asking for the government to spend $128 billion over 8 years to help make electricity the fuel of cars.

The EV group "is urging Congress to pass a series of tax credits and loan guarantees to help bring 14 million electric cars to the road by 2020. Their plan envisions building up the use of electric vehicles in six to eight cities in the short term with the goal of making 75 percent of all vehicle miles traveled powered by electricity by 2040."

I'd like to see the whole plan, but this seems a little presumptuous considering not one major automaker has even yet sold a plug-in vehicle. Likewise, the government is already putting up $50 billion+ just to help automakers achieve new CAFE standards. If such a plan were to move forward, wouldn't it be better to reallocate that $50 billion in CAFE funds to this plan, for instance?

More important, if the government is to foot the bill for electrification, shouldn't the plan be as comprehensive as possible, and ensure that the recently bailed out US auto industry is a central focus of the plan?

Study - Energy costs much more than consumers pay

And plug-ins don't help much if coal-powered

Some great information coming out of the “Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use” study completed by the National Research Council for Congress.

Essentially, America's energy paradigm costs Americans MUCH more than what we pay at the gas pump or in our utility bills. In 2005, for instance, America's 'hidden' costs of energy production added an extra $120 billion in health costs, not including "damages from climate change, harm to ecosystems, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security, which the report examines but does not monetize."

So, in reality, the costs are even far greater, and converting to grid-powered plug-in vehicles is no quick fix, at least in terms of health costs.

"Electric vehicles and grid-dependent (plug-in) hybrid vehicles showed somewhat higher nonclimate damages than many other technologies for both 2005 and 2030. Operating these vehicles produces few or no emissions, but producing the electricity to power them currently relies heavily on fossil fuels; also, energy used in creating the battery and electric motor adds up to 20% to the manufacturing part of life-cycle damages."

Of course, if national security costs had been monetized, then some of these health costs would be negated.

Consequently, the reports suggests that, "major initiatives to further reduce other emissions, improve energy efficiency, or shift to a cleaner electricity-generating mix (e.g., renewables, natural gas, nuclear) could substantially reduce external effects’ damages, including those from grid-dependent hybrid and electric vehicles."

A case for plug-in hybrids

A Prius about to be converted into a plug-in hybrid

My power went out just before midnight last night and I've blown through both of my notebook's batteries.

No worries. My hybrid is full of juice, so I'm working in my car right now, and this whole experience has me thinking about plug-in vehicles.

Until a much more robust infrastructure for EV charging is developed, instances such as these - and it only takes one - will remind consumers of why a plug-in hybrid is simply a more comforting choice of vehicle than a pure EV.

EVs leading to a "green bubble"?

Buy the Leaf, rent the $10,000 battery?

By 2020, Nissan's Carlos Ghosn recently claimed, 10 percent of worldwide vehicle sales will be electric vehicles.

Global Insight, however, puts that EV market share figure at .06 percent, according to the DetroitNews.

Likewise, the same article cites a CitiGroup Markets Report aimed at investors in the power utilities and the auto companies that warns cost barriers, the need for massive incentives, range issues, and a lack of infrastructure create the "risk of this [EVs] being another green bubble."

Even before EVs take off, Deutsche Bank believes that hybrid cars, small cars and other fuel efficient technologies will cause an "inexorable and accelerating decline" in gasoline demand beginning in 2015.

If true, how will governments afford massive incentives for EVs and EV infrastructure if their gas tax revenues begin to decline significantly? Furthermore, if gasoline demand declines, won't gas prices also decline and make it even harder to entice consumers into more expensive electric cars?

The irreconcilable EV dichotomy?

Madness or genius?

Sure, the Toyota FT-EV II electric car is odd, but is it practical? Is it cost-effective compared to other electric vehicles or even gasoline vehicles?

For instance, how many Americans can afford a two-seat $90,000 electric Roadster just for commuting? Even $45,000 is still far too expensive.

And that's the genius of a vehicle like the FT-EV. It's EV practicality. Why buy more than you need? If kept simple and on task, costs can more easily be contained for EVs, especially EVs built for average commuters.

Of course, is the American auto consumer driven by practicality?

Still, Honda has shown similar ideas, as has Mitsubishi. Nissan's Leaf isn't quite so economically focused, but it's definitely closer to the FT-EV side of the dichotomy growing between cheap EVs and luxurious EVs, as is the revolutionary Better Place idea.

One the other hand, one week luxury vehicle maker Audi is slamming the Chevy Volt, the next week they are announcing plans for the Audi E-Tron, a luxury electric vehicle. The Volt doesn't make sense, but the E-Tron does?

Then again, everyone is building a luxury EV or luxury plug-in hybrid these days, at least a few of them. Isn't this really more about marketing at this time? Besides, are luxury EVs and luxury plug-in hybrid vehicles really the path to cost-effective evonomics? Or, are cost-effective evonomics dependent upon a more practical, efficient realization of the automobile, such as the Leaf or the FT-EV II?

Can Americans really have their EV cake and eat it to, or is a revolution in America's auto culture required to really move America's auto industry, and auto consumer, forward?

Toyota: Fuel cell hybrids ARE the best hybrids

A fuel cell version by 2015?

What's the future of the automobile? Hybrids, plug-ins or fuel cell vehicles?

All of the above according to Toyota.

Obviously, Toyota already sells a number of hybrid cars, and Toyota will begin rolling out plug-in electric vehicles by 2012, followed by fuel cell hybrids in 2015.

While demonstrating how Toyota plans to cut fuel cell costs, the company noted that plug-in vehicles will be used for small, short range intra-city vehicles. However, for larger vehicles and longer ranges, Toyota believes that fuel cell hybrids are the most well-to-wheel efficient autos compared to conventional hybrids, plug-in EVs and conventional gas vehicles.

A glimpse into the future of city transportation?

The all electric EV-N

Want a small, cheap plug-in vehicle for your daily commuting?

I'm guessing that's the vision behind the Honda EV-N concept.

If this is the future of the automobile, that future probably won't be built in America, I'm guessing. By the time we get it, it'll be too late.

Is America's auto culture, though proud and historic, killing the US auto industry?

BYD: A legitimate hybrid killer

BYD EVs coming to the US next year

In 1995, BYD became another Asian company entering the advanced battery space, with a strong focus on automotive technologies. Just several years ago, however, BYD decided it was time to put its technology into its own vehicles.

This year, BYD expects to sell 400,000 vehicles, including a few plug-in hybrids.

Obviously, such an ouput is largely insignificant compared to Ford or GM, however, BYD has achieved this production rate in just a few years. Moreover, by 2025, BYD believes it will be producing more vehicles than Toyota.

And investors like Warren Buffet are buying into this long term potential.

Certainly, it will take time for BYD to appeal to US consumers, however, when this does happen - and it will happen - China could become a killer of American hybrid cars and electric vehicles. Not only will BYD have access to cheaper battery and auto manufacturing capabilites, but also better and cheaper access to lithium and rare earth metals.

Then again, Mr. Buffett isn't always right, but if he is, won't it be awfully difficult for US automakers - even Toyota as well - to compete with BYD, especially in advanced, fuel efficient technologies and their slim profit margins?

Frankfurt EV buzz irrelevant in America?

Would it sell in America?

According to much of the press coming out of the Frankfurt Auto Show, the buzz there is humming around electric vehicles. And, while some of the concept vehicles debuting there seem down right silly, at least by American standards, they just might work in Europe, where small, silly cars - again by American standards - are already acceptable.

More important, however, Europe has the kind of fuel prices that could actually make these vehicles cost-effective one day.

Can electric vehicles ever resonate with the American masses without significantly higher energy prices, and/or at least a revolutionary embrace of small, odder-than-the-Prius vehicles?

Audi President claims Volt and EVs for "idiots" and "intellectual elite"

"A car for idiots"?

During an MSN interview Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen called the Chevy Volt "a car for idiots" largely because of its price premium. In fact, he claims the Volt will be a failure, but that the government will continue to subsidize the Volt because of its investment into GM.

Likewise, de Nysschen also slammed full electric cars saying, "They're for the intellectual elite who want to show what enlightened souls they are." However, he did concede that, theoretically, plug-in hybrids could offer advantages over diesel.

0.5% market share for plug-ins by 2015?

Great for media, but how about the real world?

If it were up to me, I'd cancel the cash for clunkers program and offer an unlimited tax credit, at least through 2015, for any and every vehicle that achieves at least 50 mpg combined. I might even add an additional credit for any vehicle that achieves 100 mpg combined.

Ultimately, I'd bet that would lead to a rush in development of hybrid cars and other plug-in vehicles if the credit were similar to the clunker's program.

Without such a program, I've written that battery powered vehicles are going nowhere fast. For instance, according to JD Power or CSM Worldwide, hybrids and plug-ins will only achieve a marketshare of 3.6 percent by 2015, compared to 1.6 percent in 2009. Plug-in vehicles will achieve a market share of just .5%.

Say JD Power is wrong. Say JD has some hidden agenda. However, thus far, JD has done a pretty good job of predicting hybrid vehicle market share.

Is there too much hype around the battery-powered revolution? If the battery-powered car is our goal, why not be realistic about what it's going to take to get us there?

Aptera 2e steps closer to production

Latest interior sketch of the Aptera 2e

The final touches are being added to the Aptera 2e electric vehicle, which is scheduled to begin production this year. Aptera has released this sketch of the latest interior design.

In 2010, Aptera will also roll out the plug-in hybrid version of the Aptera.

It's still a strange vehicle and cost-effectiveness could be an issue. Beginning at $25,000, this limited seating vehicle will only resonate with a small group of consumers. Of course, $25,000 isn't very much to many early adopters of such technologies, especially in the auto segment.

Nonetheless, I love the out-of-the-box thinking on the 2e. Hopefully, Aptera will sell enough of these vehicles to provide the R&D resources to keep refining their unconventional, yet brilliant, ideas.

Nissan closer to small hybrids, but not sold yet

No more HSD for Nissan

At a technology briefing regarding Nissan's electric vehicle plans, Executive Vice President Mitsuhiko Yamashita said "Japan's No.3 automaker had made no final decision about actually offering small and mid-sized hybrid vehicles, but said the technology may be necessary for consumers who need fuel-efficient, all-purpose cars that have the same driving range as conventional gasoline or diesel cars," reports Reuters.

While claiming that zero emission vehicles would be the ideal path forward, Yamashita acknowledged that electric vehicles "might take a while"; therefore, small and medium sized hybrid vehicles could provide a good interim - and probably more cost-effective - offering.

Conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric cars, can forward-looking automakers afford not to produce all three?

Study: Battery Swapping the key to electric cars

Bad news for the auto industry?

A new study by the University of California at Berkeley finds that the key to electric vehicle success could be dependent upon the ability of electric car owners to swap their batteries. Under such a plan consumers might own their car, but not the battery, much like the idea behind Project Better Place.

I haven't been able to read the whole study yet, but I've been a big fan of Better Place's out of the box thinking. Nonetheless, it makes me wonder, is the entire established auto industry capable of surviving such a business model?

Daimler: Clean diesel is not enough

A Mercedes hybrid vehicle

While the future of the electrification of the automobile is still murky, Daimler is now fully committed to being a leader. Despite cutbacks in every department, R & D spending on lithium technology has been increasing and will not be cut.

From hybridization to full electric cars, Daimler is now certain clean, high performance diesel will not be enough to carry the company into the future. The battery is now critical to Daimler, and its marquee Mercedes brand.

"It's clear that a dramatic transition period has started," Thomas Weber, head of R&D, tells Fortune "and we want to actively shape it."

Thus, expect a a wide range of mild hybrids, full hybrids and electric cars from Daimler in the very near future.

Waiting for the EV revolution? Grab a comfy chair

Is the Prius already old technology?

Over the years I've heard many say they won't buy another car until it comes with a plug. Well, for most Americans, they'll be waiting a long time for a new car, especially if they want a pure electric vehicle.

In a new article today, Ron Cogan asks, "Will buyers pay $15,000 to $25,000 more for a vehicle that runs solely on batteries compared to a similar gasoline or clean diesel model?"

Of course not, which is why conventional vehicles and hybrid cars, including plug-in hybrids, will be the dominant automotive technologies for the short-to-midterm, or even longer.

And analysis by Bosch Automotive Group suggests the same. "The electric car will come, but in small numbers at first. It will occupy a niche and will not make a noticeable mark on the roads until after 2020." Ultimately, "dominance of the internal-combustion engine will remain unchallenged over the next twenty years."

Is the government's focus on plugging in too much too soon? Shouldn't the focus be on getting batteries, especially next gen batteries, into as many cars as soon as possible, rather than just those with plugs? Can America really afford to give the cheap hybrid vehicle market away to the Asians the same way we gave away small cars just a few decades ago? Even worse, might this focus on the plug be counter-productive to developing an American battery manufacturing industry?

EV cost check: $47,000 for an i MiEv?

It is clean and green though

During media days at the LA Auto show I spent a good bit of time sitting in the i MiEV, imaging myself as a driver and a passenger. Opening and shutting doors. Just really trying to get a feel for the vehicle. Ultimately, I assumed the reason for this car feeling so small and, I hate to say it, but cheap, was to help make this car more affordable.

Yet, today Mitsubishi has announced that the i MiEV is going on sale this year in Japan for $47,500. Isn't that wildly expensive for such a vehicle with only 100 mile range?

Moreover, it really makes me wonder how much the Chevy Volt is really going to cost at first. Somehow I think GM is banking on some funny accounting in order to sell the Volt at $40,000.

Time to pull the plug on the Chevy Volt?

It just can't help GM?

If you hate GM, then you probably don't think much of the Chevy Volt. In fact, you might even call it an unrealistic hype machine into which GM has sunk far too much money.

That's the argument the Washington Post makes today, and I have to admit, it's a pretty persuasive argument. For instance, the article points to numerous analyses, including some done by President Obama's auto task force, that indicate the economics simply don't make sense for a vehicle like the Volt. Thus, how can the Volt help GM's bottom line?

For example, even with $4.00 gas, it would still take, minimally, six years for the the Volt to recover its costs compared to today's Toyota Prius. And, that's assuming the Volt will only cost $30,000 after huge government tax credits and subsidies. Even at such a cost, it would still take far longer for many other Volt owners to recover their costs compared to a Prius.

Thus, this Post editorial suggests pulling the plug on the Volt, and I couldn't disagree more.

I have long argued that the Volt should never have been an excuse not to develop a Prius-contender. Perhaps GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrid system can fill this void, but cheap quality hybrids will be a necessity for any automaker in the very near future.

Fortunately, GM's billion dollar investment into the Volt could help produce such cheap hybrid vehicles, aside from the Volt. Because much of GM's Volt investment has been centered around one core technology, lithium-ion batteries, GM could conceivably parlay this knowledge into many different types of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Hence, to call GM's Volt venture a waste that helped lead to bankruptcy and a loss of corporate reputation is pure nonsense.

I've seen GM's battery labs. I've seen GM's virtual design center. These two elements alone could make GM's Volt investment worth the cost, even if the Volt itself is another decade away from any sort of real world, cost-effective impact.

Nonetheless, the Volt cannot save GM in the next decade. However, that does not mean the plug should be pulled on the Volt. Instead, it means GM needs to utilize the massive amount of intelligence gleaned from the Volt and convert it into a more well-rounded and balanced hybrid and electric vehicle portfolio, including the Volt.

If GM can do that, the Volt might just be GM's smartest investment ever. If not, maybe we shouldn't just pull the plug on the Volt, but GM.

Ford lithium research to begin paying off next year?

A lithium powered Escape at Hybridfest

Starting next year Ford is going to begin building a new generation of hybrid vehicles and electric cars based off of lithium-ion research that Ford has been carrying out with potential suppliers and university researchers. According to the DetroitNews, much of this new research will be highlighted this week at the SAE World Congress.

According to early reports, Ford will be able to produce lithium batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles that are not only 5 percent more efficient than NiMH batteries, but 30 percent cheaper to mass manufacture.

We say bring it on and let's end this 25,000 hybrid per year quota that Ford has been stuck on for years!

How secure would a national smart grid be?

Forget storm outages, what about cybersecurity?

It's 2020. Now, imagine a 90 square mile patch of solar panels in the desert of the SouthWest powering all of America via a super grid. Now imagine plug-in vehicles throughout America powering up via clean, green solar power. No oil. No dirty coal. Just clean, green solar energy.

Sounds great, right?

Right up until some cyberterrorist shuts the grid down for a couple of weeks and you can't power your home or your electric car. Good thing I'll be driving a plug-in hybrid, and living in a home with solar panels (hopefully)!

All kidding aside, the recent cyberterrorist scouting of the current electric grid is a reminder that the plug-in revolution isn't without obstacles, perhaps massive obstacles which might significantly increase the costs of electric power.

Certainly, we should continue to move forward with national smart grid plans and solar farms, but more effort in the short-to-midterm, in my opinion, should also be focused on small battery plug-in hybrids - versus large battery vehicles - and more distributed energy, especially regarding home solar and wind solutions.

PUMA: Pure joke or possibilities?

Now that's outside of the box

Can a two-wheeled, two-seat electric vehicle change the face of transportation? Probably not any time soon. Still, it's nice to see GM investigate something so, well, small.

Perhaps more interesting than the vehicle, "The Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility, or PUMA, project also would involve a vast communications network that would allow vehicles to interact with each other, regulate the flow of traffic and prevent crashes from happening," according to AP reports.

Capable of 35 mpg and 35 mile range, the PUMA is ready to be launched today, however, no production date has been set, nor have any cost details been released.

Chrysler and A123: Great Green PR but......

A Chrysler EV at the LA auto show

I'm out of shape. Yet, yesterday I finished a concrete patio that required thousands of pounds of ready mix - hand mixed 90# bag by 90# bag.

So, if I'm more cynical that usual, it's only because I'm hurting.

Still, when I read about the Chrysler / A123 partnership on EV batteries, I couldn't help but think, GREENWASH.

Already, President Obama's task force has stated that the Chevy Volt really can't help GM's bottom line any time soon. In fact, the Volt might not be profitable for at least another decade or more.

On the other hand, the task force is less than 30 days from forcing Chrysler into bankruptcy if they don't merge with Fiat. So, can EVs really be expected to help Chrysler's bottomline sooner than GM's?

Who cares? Green press is good - even if it isn't realistic - and this announcement is especially good. It's two US companies. So, it isn't just Chrysler auto jobs, but also high tech battery jobs - perfect for Obama's green, high tech, clean energy plans.

Sounds great. It has grant and government loan written all over it, which is fine. I love A123Systems. Still, if gas prices aren't sustainably doubled, at least, in the next few years, the idea that lithium will make help make Chrysler viable in the next decade is pure fantasy.

Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Plain and simple cost effectiveness

Later this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.

So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.

The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.

Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.

FINISH: Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Forget electric cars. I want a methanol PFCHV

It's all electromethanogenesis, baby

Forget electric cars?

I must be off my rocker, right? So, which wild hair crawled up my behind?

Well, I am a fan of fuel cell technology, you see, and I've long believed that fuel cell hybrid vehicles, not just battery-powered EVs, are the future. Fuel cells are just too efficient to ignore.

Yet, fuel cells are not without faults, such as the need for scarce metals. Still, fuel cell issues, I'm confident, can be resolved.

It's cracking the hydrogen highway that's the real nut.

Methanol fuel cell plug-in hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, could use methanol pumped through the current gasoline infrastructure that dominates American life today.

Finish: Forget electric cars. I want a methanol PFCHV

Change? Why not natural gas hybrids?

New fuel, new battery

Starting Wednesday, the Pickens Plan will kick off a virtual march to push Congress and the White House towards a greater embrace of natural gas and wind power.

President Obama, however, has indicated that natural gas isn't an option. It's the electric car or nothing, but is that really wise?

I'm certainly not arguing against plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. It just seems to me that scaling up production of these vehicles is going to take much more time than most advocates are willing to accept. Likewise, many of these vehicles are going to be consuming dirty coal for decades.

Thus, shouldn't natural gas be at least part of the conversation? And, to protect the drive towards electrification, the program could be driven by natural gas hybrid vehicles, which keeps investment into battery technology rolling while replacing foreign oil with domestic, cleaner natural gas.

Certainly having big dreams of solar power plants in the Southwest powering America's fleet of plug-ins via a super-grid are worth pursuing, but such a plan isn't going to happen over night. And the costs of making this happen far more quickly are probably more expensive than most tax payers would accept.

Thus, couldn't natural gas, especially focused around hybrids, be a bridge off foreign oil while electrification is developed and scaled?

Obama shifting funding from hydrogen to plug-ins

A Honda fuel cell vehicle

The Obama administration will shift the government's funding from hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to plug-in vehicles.

"We want diversity, but we also want critical mass. If we're going to address these problems (of dependence on foreign oil), we eventually have to build something," said Steven Chalk, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Energy Department's Office of Energy Efficiency of and Renewable Energy, adding the government has to "pick some winners so to speak and go with our best shot."

EVs and hybrids: A bandaide for American denial?

Could it really be so simple?

Last night I watched a PBS program about the Velib, which essentially means freedom bike. In Paris, one can quite easily rent a bicycle to go from their subway stop to their job, the store, etc. Bike sharing is becoming Parisian for cool.

Moreover, cities such as Paris and London, are taking road space and converting it into public space - for walking, biking or some kind of public transportation space.

Yet, here in America, everything is about cake-eating. We don't want real change. Somehow the American Dream has come to mean irresponsibility.

We want the same auto culture as today, except in the future we'll plug-in our car and suck up as much coal as we can consume. Moreover, we're relying on a dying auto industry to somehow immediately start converting the entire US fleet into EVs - something which would take about 12 years if only EVs were produced today.

Obviously, many Americans will need cars for many years, and a move to hybrid cars and EVs is essential and important, but aren't even more innovative solutions required? Perhaps, even more simple solutions?

Is Fisker a Tesla killer?

The Karma convertible

In about a year, Fisker Automotive will begin production on the Karma plug-in hybrid sedan. Already the company is finalizing the details on its dealership network and at least 1,300 vehicles are already on the books according to reports.

Yet, what is really interesting about Fisker is the plan to produce 15,000 plug-in hybrids per year. By the time the Karma goes on sale, on the other hand, Tesla might still not have produced 1,000 Roadsters.

Is Tesla quickly becoming irrelevant?

In terms of cost, both the Roadster and the Karma are in the same league. Yet, the Karma seems to offer so much more. For instance, a wider dealership network, better range, and more seating.

Yes, Tesla will eventually offer a 4-seat sedan that could cost-cut the Karma, yet Tesla's manufacturing history is a serious question mark. If Fisker can come out of the gate with all their manufacturing pistons firing, is there any room left in the market for Tesla?

Detroit Auto Show: Do you buy the green hype?

Prius sales down 44 percent

In the last few years, automakers have realized that green is in, at least in terms of marketing. As a result, auto shows have become forums for establishing green cred.

This year's Detroit Auto Show was greener than ever, yet are automakers really any greener? Or, is most of the green auto movement pure hype?

In just a couple of years, GM's Chevy Volt will put rubber to the road, but it will be many more years before GM produces serious numbers of Volts per year.

A number of other automakers will also be rolling out various types of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles in the next few years as well. Again, however, also in very small numbers.

Even if automakers are more aggressive with their EV and hybrid plans, are consumers even ready for such vehicles?

Not if the economy isn't significantly stronger and gas prices much higher NewsWeek speculates, and I doubt that major automakers are oblivious to this possibility. Numerous studies have indicated that a significant percent of consumers want hybrids and EVs, but they don't want to pay much extra for them. How do struggling automakers cope with that reality?

Do automakers have a solution to this conundrum? Do they really care? Or, is all this green hype really much more about image than reality?

If I had to make a bet, I'd bet on a number of automaker bankruptcies before I'd bet on their green developments. Great change is coming to the auto industry, but that change isn't going to be driven by powertrains, but simple survival.

Or, is green talk the quickest path to Obama's bailout heart? (Check comments for an update)

As hybrid hype rages in Detroit, Goldman calls for $30 oil

The new Fisker Karma in Detroit

Hybrid cars and EVs were a huge part of this year's Detroit Auto Show. Yet, as all these automakers attempt to greenwash away the reality of their carbon-footprints and their complicity in America's foreign oil dependency with concepts that we'll never see or see only in very small numbers for years, Goldman Sachs is calling for $30 oil some time this quarter.

Isn't it ironic?

New plans to electrify Ford

First Ford EV coming in 2010

So, by 2010 Ford will offer an electric van and a small electric car capable of at least 100 miles per charge by 2011. By 2012, Ford will also offer plug-in hybrids capable of 30 miles of electric power. In addition, Ford wants to hybridize many more models with new hybrid technology that will be 70 percent more fuel efficient than conventional versions.

Sounds, impressive, right?

Yet, very few numbers have been provided, such as how many of such vehicles will be built per year. While that isn't really unusual, Ford's hybrid history has been quite conservative, such as only building 25,000 Escape hybrids per year. Will these new plans be similarly as cautious?

Ultimately, Ford's hybrid plans appear quite similar to hybrid leader, Toyota. Minimally, however, Ford has a lot of catching up to do. While off to a good start with the new Ford Fusion, the real focal point in the next few years will be Ford's aggressiveness as it rolls out these new products. If as slow as its current hybrid program, these plans could be much ado about nothing.

The Volt will kick EV1 ass

Let's get real folks

I've pretty much had it with the EV1, GM killed the electric car, folks.

Did GM kill the electric car? Shut up.

Every automaker is working on an electric car today. No one killed the electric car. Cheap gas, however, delayed the emergence of the electric car.

Did GM screw up the EV1 program? Absolutely, but without much higher gas prices, how many EV1's could GM really have sold, especially if they sold them at real world cost? Honestly, 5 years ago, how many would have paid $40,000+ for a two-seat vehicle with 100 mile range and 6 hour charge requirements?

Certainly, some would have, but the EV1 would never have achieved the economies of scale to achieve profitability. NEVER. And, for GM haters, even Toyota has publicly stated that it could never achieve profitability on NiMH-powered EVs.

Nonetheless, could GM have parlayed the EV1 into 10,000 units a year and lots of positive green press? Yes. But, what would that have really changed? Ultimately, it would have just greenwashed the fact that gas-guzzlers were still GM's bread and butter.

If GM made a big mistake, in my opinion, it was that it didn't convert its EV1 experience into a Prius-like hybrid to help further develop battery technology while addressing fuel economy immediately. Yet, how much would a Prius-like hybrid have really helped GM? After 10 years of Prius production, it is unlikely that Toyota has yet recovered its total Prius investment.

Does that absolve GM's mistakes? Hell no, but let's keep some perspective people.

And, most important, the EV1 DOES NOT prove that NiMH batteries could now be powering the Chevy Volt. The EV1 had 100 miles of range, then required a 6 hour charge. The Chevy Volt, when not powered by grid electricity, uses electricity created by on-board generator. That means the Volt might go 500 miles without stopping, plugging into the grid, etc. Yet, for that entire 500 miles, the Volt will be relying on its battery pack as electricity always powers the Volt.

When did the EV1 ever go 500 miles without multiple charges? That's right, never. Not even close.

Inevitably, the battery requirements of the Volt and the EV1 are vastly different - it's apples to oranges - especially when you're going to offer a 10 year warranty on the battery pack.

Furthermore, as a consumer, if you could buy a 100 mile range EV1 for the same price as a Volt with unlimited range, which would you buy?

Yet, if gas prices are below $3.00, even the Volt won't really help GM much, and full electrification will still be decades away. So, if you want to get angry about the killing of the electric car, get mad at GM's lobbyists. Get made at your Congressperson. And, if you want to get really crazy, tell your representatives in Washington that you want higher gas taxes.

Ford poised for hybrid leadership?

New hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs by 2012

We've heard it before. Ford was going to become a hybrid leader, then they weren't. Of course, now there is also a new sheriff in town with new rules and new plans.

Ford's new CEO, Alan Mulally, achieved much success striving for efficiency while at Boeing. Can he do the same with the only US automaker not to yet need any government loan help thanks to Mulally's restructing efforts after taking over Ford's helm?

That's what many are wondering thanks to a recent statement Ford made when it announced new plans for hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs by 2012, which are to be elaborated upon at NAIAS.

In the past, I would have poooh-pooohed such news as just greenwashing, but considering the engineering success of the Ford Fusion hybrid and its new hybrid powertrain, there is reason to be hopeful.

Still, is this all just PR and congressional-pointed propaganda, or do you think Ford is ready to become a real leader in hybrid and EV technology? And, I define real leadership as not just technology, but significant sales. Can Ford become a hybrid sales leader within the next five years?

Your solar Prius coming soon

Toyota working on solar powered EVs

According to unconfirmed reports, Toyota is "secretly" working on solar powered electric vehicles. To start, the vehicles might only be partially powered by solar power, while offering the ability to fully charge via roof top solar panels. The long term goal, however, is to have the solar cars achieve all of their power from the vehicle's own solar cells.

Toyota's $20,000 city EV

As small as the Auris?

Toyota will debut a small, limited range electric vehicle at the Detroit Auto Show in January. According to early reports the new EV will be a small car intended for short range city use and it will cost about $20,000.

The new EV concept is to be based off a new subcompact design that Toyota hopes to begin selling in a few years.

Can EVs save the US auto industry?

More expensive EVs, or cheaper, smaller vehicles?

Since the bailout was announced this morning, I've watched quite a bit of CNBC coverage on the subject. And, both GM's CEO and the Michigan Governor, have now claimed that EVs and battery-powered vehicles are the key to turning the US auto industry around.

Is that believable?

Recently, the CEO of Valence Technology, a US-based battery maker said that Europe was far more prepared for electrification than the US.

Other reports have indicated that the battery manufacturing industry in the US is just shy of dead, and resurrection won't be easy, even if massive investments are made. Whom will the US industry rely on for batteries for this EV revolution? Our competitors?

Even if a battery industry can be developed, a bigger question might be, when will EVs be profitable? Likewise, will consumers want EVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles if they cost $30,000 or more, especially if next year's economy is just as bad as this year's economy?

Crushed pension funds and 401k's, foreclosure and negative home value, job insecurity - these conditions might stick for a few years, and, even when resolved, these conditions might stick in consumer's collective consciousness for many years after.

Add that to recent findings that suggest that America's love affair with the car has shifted, and maybe Americans are finally ready for very different forms of transportation. Certainly, that doesn't mean that Americans won't want cars, but maybe we'll want much cheaper, smaller cars or just far, far less cars - another circumstance that will kill Detroit profits regardless of electrification.

Can EVs really save the US auto industry? Or has EV become a buzz word used for placation and distraction?

$1 billion to kick start the US battery industry?

Is it already too late for a US battery industry?

3M and Johnson Controls have joined a consortium of 14 US technology companies, called the National Alliance for Advanced Transportation Battery Cell Manufacture, which is seeking $1 billion in aid from the US government to help develop advanced batteries for hybrid and electric cars.

Argonne National Lab is advising the alliance on how to bring lithium technology, much of it invented into the US, back into US manufacturing according to the Wall Street Journal.

With many calling batteries the new oil, such an effort should be no surprise. Still, while much of this battery technology was first developed in the US, few US companies have found battery manufacturing to be profitable, largely because most electronic devices are made in Asia. It is hoped, however, that since the US still has a large auto manufacturing sector - at least for now - manufacturing auto batteries could be different, and profitable.

Honda, GS Yuasa form hybrid battery partnership

Eventually lithium powered?

Honda and GS Yuasa will "establish a joint venture company which will manufacture, sell and conduct R&D for high-power lithium-ion batteries with a central focus on applications in hybrid electric vehicles," according to GreenCarCongress.

While Honda might be a laggard on plug-in vehicles, it has aggressively increased its efforts into hybrid vehicles.

Still, Honda continues to develop electric cars as well, as the Honda Clarity is powered by an electric drivetrain. Thus, it seems that Honda will be quite capable of adapting to the electric vehicle market when it matures into full scale mass production.

Yet, Honda's interim plans for fuel economy will not suffer if EV adoption is slow, unlike many other automakers. Since, you can make a lot more hybrids than EVs with the same supply of batteries, Honda could flood the market with cheap hybrids as the issues of electrification are worked through without hurting EV development.

Chrysler EVs: Not a one trick pony

Chrysler's first electric vehicle?

While many believe that Chrysler won't be around in a couple of years, Chrysler is moving ahead with plans to electrify the automobile. And, in a CNN piece, Chrysler took a poke at the Chevy Volt and claimed that it wouldn't be a one trick pony, or "one electric vehicle company."

Thus, Chrysler's big EV plans are to forgo aerodynamics, weight and fancy designs. Instead, Chrysler will begin its EV program by converting traditional Chrysler vehicles into electric vehicles, while achieving the same kinds of performance as a Volt - all at a cheaper cost to the automaker and to consumers.

So, why didn't GM think of that?

Because, at least initially, it doesn't seem to make sense. For instance, the Volt will use a 16 kwh battery pack - the most critical and expensive component of the Volt. Chrysler's Jeep EV, on the other hand, will use a 27 kwh battery. Yet, somehow, Chrysler's EVs will be more cost-effective?

In the future, however, Chrysler's plans make a bit more sense. New EV production will be coordinated with conventional vehicle production. Thus, every Chrysler auto made can be either a gasoline-powered car, or an EV. Hence, Chrysler will be able to react quickly to market demand if it switches from gas to EV and back to gas again, for instance. Still, that program won't begin until at least 2012, and it seems a little perfect world.

Nonetheless, it's good to see Chrysler developing sophisticated EV plans, even if they are more about bailout bribery than reality. Still, do such plans really make Chrysler any more viable in the next 10 years?

Chrysler EV spyshots? Whoopdidoo!

Not the spyshots

So, I finally checked out the Dodge EV spyshots on AutoWeek, and all I can say is whoopdidoo.

Chances are that Chrysler won't even be around by the time these vehicles are customer-ready, and how realistic are any of Chrysler's 3 EV prototypes for mass-market consumption?

Theater.

Certainly, it's great that Chrsyler is at least pursuing EV technology, but this Dodge EV is going nowhere regardless of how fast it gets there.

Tesla's cheap, $57,000, EV dependent on government aid

100th Roadster finally delivered

Tesla will delay plans to build it's new $57,000 four door sedan if the government doesn't give it $350 million in auto loans. If the government does deliver the money, Tesla hopes to build 20,000 sedans per year by 2011.

While I have great respect for Elon Musk, I have a hard time buying this business if it requires government help. Thus far Tesla has produced just 100 cars. In 2011, if Tesla can start selling $57,000 EVs, they will have to compete with much cheaper plug-in hybrids and EVs from numerous major automakers.

In my opinion, unless gas costs at least $5.00 in 2011, $40,000 for a Volt is too expensive. Still, I'd take a range extended $40,000 Volt over a $57,000 EV any day of the week.

I just don't see a legitimate business case.

Stupid America? Automaker blame and cheap gas

Cheap gas hurts America

GM is bleeding money in the US, yet throughout the world GM's auto business is profitable. Why? Why is GM near bankruptcy?

Is it all bad management? Is it all the fault of the UAW? Is it all because GM killed the electric car?

I don't think so. Certainly, GM's management was bad in decades past and the UAW was uncompetitive. However, killing the electric car didn't kill GM. Even if GM was making as many EVs today as Toyota does hybrid cars, GM would still be on the precipice of bankruptcy.

Complacency killed the Big 3. Complacency caused by cheap gas.

Certainly, auto companies lobbied Congress not to raise fuel economy standards, and, until recently, Congress has been more than happy to oblige. And Americans didn't care, as fuel economy was even less important than cup holders for the majority of car buyers.

Thus, any mention of a gas tax has been instant political suicide. Yet, protecting our foreign oil resources has cost more than a gas tax ever would have. And, what do we have to show for it?

Ooops. That's right. We have the greatest military the world loves to hate, Whooohooo! America! We're number 1!

Killing Detroit won't lead to any greater fuel efficiency than if Detroit is bailed out. If you want to blame someone, or something, blame cheap gas. If you can't do that, then you can't handle the truth.

Give the Big 3 a break, Take 2

How serious are we about ending foreign oil dependency

President Elect Barack Obama made a lot of strong statements during his Presidential campaign about energy security and green jobs, even touting $150 billion over 10 years to develop the green economy.

$150 billion will help, but it's a drop in the bucket needed for an energy revolution.

Not long ago, Al Gore suggested it would take $400 billion to develop a new, national smart grid - the kind of grid many experts claim is necessary for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Perhaps a company such as Better Place can alleviate the need for a such a super grid for EVs, but that's a different story.

Then, we need the electric vehicles, vehicles that are going to cost far more than conventional vehicles for many, many years. Finish: Give the Big 3 a break, Take 2

A Better Place than the Volt?

So yesterday?

It's 2016 and you need a new car. Now, you aren't rich. You're middle, middle class and living paycheck to paycheck. You really like the Chevy Volt, but all the consumer tax credits have been consumed, and the upfront costs are just too much. The new Toyota Prius, on the other hand, costs $10,000 less than the Volt, but skyrocketing gasoline prices mean even the fuel efficiency of hybrid cars might not be enough to save you from serious pump pain.

So, instead you buy a Prius-sized electric vehicle from one of Better Place's partners that not only costs several thousand less than the Prius, but your monthly fees for battery and charging are a third the cost of what you'd pay in monthly gas bills.

And, even if you have to take a few long trips that push you beyond Better Place's range, it would still be far cheaper to rent a Prius on those special occasions.

Seems a bit far-fetched, but the way Better Place keeps inking deals, I'm starting to believe that maybe it's possible. Maybe it isn't car makers that are critical to the future, but rather battery and infrastructure companies. And, maybe that future is closer than we think.

Ford updates Congress - EVs coming in 2010

An electric version in 2012?

CNBC's Phil Lebeau interviewed Ford CEO Alan Mulally today about Ford's updated plans being provided for Congress. According to Lebeau, Ford plans to turn a profit around 2011. Although Ford doesn't need financing right now, they are seeking to secure about $9 billion in loans to have access to if needed. If needed, Mulally will work for $1 per year.

Ford also announced that it will begin selling commercially available electric vehicles by 2010. In 2010, Ford will sell an electric van for fleet sales, followed by an electric sedan in 2011. Ford plans to elaborate on these plans, as well as plans for new hybrid vehicles at the North American International Auto Show.

A bailout for Tesla?

$400 million for Tesla?

So, Tesla Motors is seeking some $400 million dollars in low interest loans from the government - a tiny piece of the $25 billion that Congress approved to help automakers restructure to meet new CAFE legislation.

Does Tesla really help American fleet fuel economy? Should government money go to a company that will undoubtedly use that money as a bridge to an IPO to further enrich it's VC funders?

Then again, if you're gonna give money to US automakers with a history of inefficiency, why not to a startup?

I'm not terribly against government loans to Tesla, but I do think that any vehicle produced via government money should require proper pricing points. For instance, vehicle cost should be guaranteed to be no more than $40,000, although I really think it should be closer to $30,000.

Think EV causes some EV economic thinking

Tiny electric car has big price

Think is starting to sell the The City electric car in Norway. With a 112 miles per charge and a top speed of 62.5 miles per hour, the Think doesn't pack a ton of WOW power. Still, it's an environment-saving, oil-crushing electric vehicle.

Nonetheless, the economics of Think's City cause some serious consumer thinking. The base price of the The City equates to $28,690. That's fair for a small, under-performing electric car, right?

Hold on. That doesn't include the battery. The battery is leased for another $183 per month. After 5 years that would add an extra $11,000 to the cost of the vehicle, totalling almost $40,000 - and that doesn't include charging costs.

Makes me think that either GM is going to take a big hit on the Volt, or that the close to $40,000 price tag must not include the battery lease. Thank god for government tax incentives. We're gonna need a lot of them if gas prices keep falling.

10 percent EV by 2016, or 100 percent hybrid?

Bigger impact: $19,000 hybrid or $30,000 plug-in?

A while back I was reading about how EnerDel was increasing its battery producing capabilities in expectation of some new lithium-ion contracts. Essentially, EnerDel will have the ability to produce enough batteries for 45,000 electric vehicles per year, or 450,000 hybrid electric vehicles. For weeks now, these numbers have been churning in my head.

Then, on the eve of the LA Auto Show, Nissan CEO Carol Ghosn told CNBC that he believed that by 2016, the combined auto industry would be able to make 10 percent of the US fleet electric.

Well, using those EnerDel numbers, if there are enough batteries to convert 10 percent of conventional vehicles into electric vehicles, then there would be enough batteries to convert 100 percent of conventional vehicles into hybrid vehicles.

Which path is more productive? Are some automakers focusing on EVs because it delays a fast, massive change, while offseting the fuel economy of CAFE-killing guzzlers?

US auto sales: 10 percent electric by 2016

The auto future according to Carlos Ghosn

With significant government help and automaker determination, electric vehicles could reach 10 percent of total US auto sales by 2016, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn told CNBC today.

Getting auto buyers into the "smart garage"

Smart electrification close, yet so far away

Interesting piece in Forbes about how close the "smart garage"needed for the electrification of the automobile is to reality, at least technologically. In terms of costs and public acceptance, however, electrification of the automobile might still be a moon shot away.

The technology for both electric vehicles and a smart garage that gives utilities the ability to "create a power network that not only sends energy to users but draws and stores unused energy from homes, businesses and parked electric vehicles to redistribute" when demand requires, is at hand.

However, the "smart garage" won't be cheap. In fact, it will probably cost hundreds of billions of tax payer dollars, and it will require consumers to completely rethink every aspect of automobile use and ownership.

A new energy paradigm is ours for the taking, will we have the courage to reach for it?

Nissan's future: Self-charging EVs

One of Nissan's EV concepts

Imagine a range extended electric vehicle, similar to the Chevy Volt, but without the gas. Instead, of using an engine to generate extra electricity, an onboard ultracapacitor would extend the range of the EV.

It might sound a little futuristic, and it is, but that is exactly one such plan that Nissan is working on as it seeks to become the leader in the electrification of the automobile according to Nissan's Minoru Shinohara, senior vice president of technology development.

And, according to Greentechmedia, Shinohara's views are not to be taken lightly.

UK Study - Current grid can handle plug-ins and reduce CO2. Many adoption questions

Many decades before everyone in the UK is plugging in

A joint study by Arup and Cenex for the UK’s Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) and the Department for Transport (DfT) finds that plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles can reduce automotive CO2 emissions by 40 percent per vehicle utilizing the current grid.

Nonetheless, the UK study doesn't believe that plug-ins are ready to take over market share. At today's pace the study expects 2.5% of all cars to connect to the grid by 2020, 11.7% by 2030. If the UK takes aggressive measures to develop plug-ins, then those numbers rise to 4.9% by 2020 and 32% by 2030. Under an extreme scenario - the production of plug-in only cars by 2025 - then the numbers plugging in would be 10% by 2020 and 60% by 2030.

More on the study from GreenCarCongress.

Don't buy a hybrid! Share a hybrid

Hybrid car sharing

WeCar, is the new car sharing division of Enterprise. It doesn't reinvent car sharing, although it does use only hybrid cars in its fleet, which is pretty cool. Still, this whole car sharing thing really has me intrigued.

Foreign oil dependency. Global warming. High fuel prices. Financial crisis. Are more expensive hybrid cars and electric vehicles really the answer? Instead of just replacing our 13 million per year fleet of vehicles, why not less vehicles? Isn't it gluttonous consumerism, not just gas-guzzlers, that is really strangling America?

Bikes, scooters, tiny one-person microcars, and public transportation might not offer much bling for consumers, but for daily commuting, such forms of transportation are far more efficient, cost effective and environmentally friendly than a plug-in Prius or a Chevy Volt. And all of these approaches can be supplemented with car sharing.

Instead of buying a Volt, might not the future be a better time to share a Volt?

Plug-in adoption strongly tied to oil prices

How fast will lithium for autos develop?

What kind of penetration will plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric cars make into world auto sales by 2020?

That depends on the price of oil according to a study funded by Credit Suisse. According to the study, plug-ins will achieve 10 percent world market penetration by 2020 if the price of oil is $100 per barrel. If the price of oil hits $200, then plug-inz could achieve 25 percent penetration.

The Mini E is cool, but...

Only a two-seater?

I'm glad to hear that the Mini E electric vehicle is going to be available for a one year lease for up to 500 lessees, but I'm still not that excited. Honda is going to lease hundreds of fuel cell vehicles, but that doesn't mean they are going to be mass-produced any time soon.

Even the MiniUSA site claims that this is a " pilot test" to help BMW with its "medium term" plans to develop electric cars.

What is medium term?

If BMW had more concrete plans for the next stage after this pilot program, I would be more hopeful, but, as it stands, its a step, but only a small step.

New Citroen hybrid/EV outside of the box

The Cactus could come in both hybrid and electric options

There is something special about the Citroen Cactus concept.

No, it's not its EV status. With a top speed of 70 mph and a range of 100 miles, there is nothing special about the Cactus's EV qualifications. It's not the fact that the Cactus could also come as a hybrid model either.

It's the lack of a dashboard. The dashboard controls are instead mounted onto the center console or steering wheel hub, which results in a significant reduction in weight and costs.

More interesting, AutoWeek is reporting that Citroen is seriously considering putting the Cactus into production. Hopefully, such a move can inspire a wave of automakers to think outside of the box to make lighter, cheaper and more fuel efficient vehicles.

"Colossal" effort needed to commercialize electric cars

Nissan / Renault ZE electric vehicle

As French President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged $549 million at the Paris Motor Show to help French automakers develop electric and hybrid cars, Renault and Electrite de France agreed to partner on developing the infrastructure needed to for recharging electric vehicles.

And, apparently, that's only the beginning of the investment, as Renault/Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn told reporters that the investment to commercialize electric cars would be "colossal".

No Big 3 Prius challengers in Paris?

The only Prius challenger for years?

Duh? The Chevy Volt, right?

Not any time soon. Maybe not ever.

A significant percent of Americans simply can't plug-in, won't want to plug-in, or won't want to front the extra money up front for the benefits of electric vehicles.

Ultimately, there will be plenty of consumers for both the Toyota Prius and the Chevy Volt, but they are two very different technologies for two different consumer segments.

Yet, Toyota is also developing plug-in hybrids to challenge the Volt. Are GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrids really a challenge to the Prius? Are 20,000 Ford Focus hybrids a challenge to the Prius? And what about Chrysler?

In recent months, both Hyundai and Honda have committed to selling 100,000's of thousands of hybrid cars each, per year, within the next several years. Shouldn't the Big 3 be doing the same?

Revised plug-in tax credit in new bailout bill

$4,168 - $7,500 tax credit for plug-ins

If the new bailout package in Congress is approved on Friday, it will also include a new plug-in tax credit.

Plug-in vehicles weighing under 10,000 pounds with at least a 4 kWh battery pack will qualify for a $4,168 tax credit. The value of the credit will scale up to a maximum of $7,500 for each extra kWh of battery capacity.

Once automakers, collectively, sell 250,000 plug-ins in one year, the credit will expire.

Chrysler's EVs more developed than Volt?

A Dodge plug-in concept at NAIAS 2007

Has Chrysler killed Chevy Volt hype?

Since the Volt debut in 2007, GM has reiterated over and over how they were accomplishing something almost inconceivable. Concept to reality in little more than 3 years. And, not just your standard concept. A range extended electric vehicle.

Yet, all the while, Chrysler has been quietly keeping pace. Of course, that statement isn't fully true. Chrysler's plug-in vehicles probably won't be launched as unique plug-in only models, such as the Volt. So, Chrysler's results are not as impressive.

Nevertheless, Chrysler's quick pace demonstrates that plug-ins aren't that hard to build. The real issue for both Chrysler and GM is, as it has always been, can these vehicles be powered with reliable, cost effective batteries that can be economically produced in great numbers? Unfortunately, that still won't be known even in late 2010 when these vehicles launch.

We all want plug-in hybrids, but can we afford them?

Honda has it right?

Plug-in vehicles. It's the new darling of the automotive world. It's the future. The saviour of the US auto industry. Still, when does this future make cost-effective sense for BOTH consumers and automakers?

For the past few months Hybridcarblog has run a survey asking 'What is the most you would pay for the Chevy Volt'?. Almost half those responding, 47 percent, don't want to pay more than $20,000 for a such vehicle. Another 40 percent won't pay more than $30,000.

Yet, a vehicle like the Chevy Volt will probably cost about $40,000. Certainly, at first, a $7,500 plug-in tax credit will help. Still, how likely is that after the credit expires that GM can sell the Volt for $30,000 AND make a profit?

Is the plug-in revolution really just right around the corner? In what year will the first automaker make a million plug-in vehicles per year? Are cheap hybrid cars, such as the Honda Insight, a much better solution in the next 10 years than plug-ins?

New Chrysler hybrids and EVs coming

The EcoVoyager Concept at NAIAS

Without giving any details, Jim Press told reporters today that Chrysler will launch 7 major models in 2010. Press also stated that Chrysler was, and will continue to, work on electric drive vehicles and that such vehicles would make their way to market not long after 2010.

Last week, Chrysler announced that the Envi Unit had been quietly working on new hybrid cars and electric vehicles, however, they also noted one vehicle looked good for off-roading. Thus, it's hard to know if these are just niche vehicles focused on attaining EV hype, or if Chrysler is serious about making a major move to electrification in the next few years.

Ford engineer believes in electrification

Hybrids are too expensive

Ford Motor Co.'s global product development chief, Derrick Kuzak, believes the future is not hydrogen. It's not biofuels, nor gasoline either. It's electricity. Ironically, however, he doesn't seem to know when Ford would be rolling out this future. Instead, Kuzak told the DetroitNews that Ford would still work on ALL these technologies. And, he also took a shot at hybrid cars, calling them too expensive.

Are they too expensive when gas is $4.00?

US automakers need $40 billion

A Ford plug-in hybrid at NAIAS

There is an interesting article, The Next Bailout: Detroit,
that covers the latest talks the Big 3 US automakers are having with some members of Congress. Apparently, the Big 3 need about $40 billion to both survive and to develop next generation hybrid cars and electric vehicles.

This blog has covered automaker bailouts in the past, and most that have commented seemed to be against any bailout. Nonetheless, feel free to again express your opinion for or against, but how likely do you think an automaker bailout is, regardless of your bailout opinions? Is it a sure thing? Is it dependent upon the race for President?

BorgWarner to help GM on EVs?

Ready to make transmissions for the Volt?

The CEO of BorgWarner was just on a CNBC segment titled 'Turbocharging the Auto Industry'. While discussing various technologies for improving fuel economy, the CEO also addressed technologies for hybrid cars and electric vehicles. During this part of the interview, the CEO said the company was on the verge of a major announcement regarding EV transmissions for range extended EVs.

Thus far, the only OEM close to needing such transmissions is GM for the Chevy Volt. Of course, the CEO didn't say, but GM seems the most likely recipient of such transmissions. Since the first editions of the Volt are going to be quite expensive as there are no suppliers for many major parts, adding a new member to the supply chain would be great news.

Buy the car. Lease the battery.

Is this the way to sell PHEVs and EVs?

Quite regularly, I am contacted by people inquiring about the reliability of the batteries in hybrid cars. As the auto industry moves further towards the electrification of the auto, the importance of batteries will increase significantly.

Would a battery lease be the best way to handle this issue?

Bob Lutz has already suggested such a plan for the Chevy Volt, for instance. Likewise, GM is already contemplating what to do with used batteries, which would still retain some, or even much, of their capacity. Thus, even after an EV is retired, the battery might still be valuable. Considering the considerable upfront costs of this technology, could leasing help spread that cost?

Buy the car. Lease the battery. Is this a business model that you would accept?

2000 iMiEVs in 2009

10,000 per year "shortly afterward"

Mitsubishi is building a new factory for the lithium batteries that will power the iMiEV, an electric vehicle. "The lithium-ion battery for the car will be produced by Lithium Energy Japan, a subsidiary of Japan's biggest battery maker, GS Yuasa Corp., at a newly acquired site in Shiga in western Japan, according to reports.

By mid-2009, Mitsubishi is hoping to build as many as 2,000 iMiEVs for fleet sales and general sales in 2010. "Shortly afterward" Mitsubishi is hoping to lift production to 10,000 units per year.

Nissan still working out kinks on new hybrids

Hoping to get rid of Toyota hybrid license?

Nissan showed off new technology for hybrid cars and electric vehicles in Japan on Wednesday. While the electric cars seemed to perform well, reporters did notice problems with Nissan's new hybrid. "Nissan's hybrid system still has some bugs to work out. Shown on an Infiniti luxury model, it seemed to lurch a little when the gas engine kicked in as speed picked up."

Nissan didn't offer any details on price, range, production capabilities, etc. of the new vehicles.

Honda credits EVs for its hybrids, fuel cell vehicles

Only possible because of EVs

When it comes to plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, Honda seems to be taking a pass. Instead, Honda is focused on cheap hybrid cars in the near term, and fuel cell vehicles, such as the Honda Clarity FCX, for the future.

Ironically, Honda is claiming that without its EV program in the nineties, today's hybrids and fuel cells wouldn't have been possible. "Although the limitations of battery performance ultimately led to the end of Honda's EV Plus marketing efforts, the advancement of key components, such as an electric motor, the battery power system, and our engineers knowledge of charging systems, continued to evolve." (more)

Sounds like a 'Dear John' letter. I guess that's another nail in Honda's EV coffin?

Grid can handle plug-ins, but only slowly and gradually

Can't be too many in one neighborhood too fast

The US grid is ready for the electrification of the automobile - as long as adoption is slow and gradual, charging only occurs at night, and EVs and PHEVs stay much smaller than today's current fleet of autos.

That's according to Mark Duvall, program manager for electric transportation, power delivery and distribution for the Electric Power Research Institute, based upon lessons learned as grids have gradually adapted to electricity-hogging plasma TVs. Of course, EVs will easily suck up four times as much juice as plasma TVs.

Even with a gradual increase of plug-ins, utilities are still somewhat worried according to the AP. Because of their higher costs, utilities are already worried that 'rich' neighborhoods might be EV and PHEV clusters that could threaten local electric substations. Other worries include size and weight, such as the inevitable desire for larger and more powerful electric vehicles that could greatly increase electricity demand from autos.

Ultimately, the same consumer trends that spiraled America's oil dependence out of control, could threaten the plug-in revolution as well. Can we do better this time?

Batteries to hold back PHEVs and EVs many more years?

The ZENN electric vehicle

Is the electrification of the automobile just around the corner? Not unless consumers are willing to significantly change their expectations regarding automobiles and, equally as important, be willing to pay more for automobiles, according to ex-GM CEO, Robert Stempel, whom set forth the EV1 program at GM before being removed from his post.

Regarding the EV1 Stempel told the Wall Street Journal, "The business side of the case wasn't there. The EV1 was too expensive…We were way off the cost target."

While consumer expectations might be opening to range shortcomings, charging, and other issues slowing electric drive adoption - mostly thanks to high gas prices - battery costs are still high today according to Stempel, whom has been with Energy Conversion Devices since his dismissal at GM. Stempel likes the NiMH battery, but believes it is simply not robust enough for either plug-in hybrid vehicles or pure electrics, and while he thinks lithium could solve this issue, he suggests that commodity costs could keep lithium batteries for automobiles expensive for many more years.

Tesla's Musk: Plug-in hybrids suck and why he's wrong

Tesla founder rips PHEVs

Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla Motors, was recently asked by Newsweek why he didn't consider plug-in hybrid vehicles in addition to pure electric vehicles. He replied, "We spent a lot of time last year looking at plug-in hybrids and ultimately concluded that it would not be a very good car. You're forced to compromise. Because you need both a gasoline-powered engine and a big battery, neither can be very good, and the engine will be a weak engine. It's just not where the future lies. We'll be able to offer a car with a 305-mile range roughly three years from now."

Ultimately, Musk believes that within 30 years America's transportation system could be 100 percent solar-powered pure electric vehicles.

As a fan and advocate for the electrification of the automobile, I think Musk is selling his book - his investments in solar power and EVs - in preparation for a Tesla IPO.

Finish: Tesla's Musk: Plug-in hybrids suck and why he's wrong

Honda: Proof that plug-in vehicles are a gimmick?

Honda just not worried about CAFE?

When it comes to CAFE and NHTSA fuel economy regulations, one automaker is always absent from the discussion, Honda. Interestingly, in this time of high gas prices and super sluggish auto sales, Honda sales keep on rolling. Sure, Honda doesn't have the hybrid cars, yet, to match Toyota, but Honda's overall fleet is far more fuel efficient than Toyota, and CAFE seems of little concern.

Thus, it's very interesting that Honda is not aggressively pursuing either plug-in hybrid vehicles or electric vehicles. Instead, Honda believes cheap hybrid cars are the best short-to-midterm solution, followed by fuel cell vehicles, such as the Honda Clarity.

Even more ironic, however, one might think Toyota and GM would be less concerned over CAFE if they are so bullish on plug-ins - vehicles which should significantly help balance their fleet fuel economy. Hence, one can only assume that neither Toyota nor GM believe that plug-ins will be a major component of their fleet fuel economy for many, many years.

Certainly, there is no doubt that America will see a number of plug-in vehicles by 2010, but when will we see them in numbers that matter? Are plug-in vehicles before 2015, even 2020, more of a niche, PR-gimmick to distract Americans from the reality that automakers are failing us as consumers on fuel efficiency, foreign oil dependency and global warming?

2010: Tesla WhiteStar v. Chevy Volt

Telsa ready to follow up the Roadster with a sedan

Thanks to $10 million in tax relief and incentives, Tesla will make its WhiteStar sedan in California, which should go on sale in 2010. Certainly, offering 225 miles per charge for $60,000 should bring more EV fans to Tesla than has the $100,000 Roadster, right?

Still, can WhiteStar compete with the likes of the Chevy Volt or a Prius plug-in hybrid?

While the Volt will only achieve 40 miles of pure electric power, it will essentially offer unlimited range as it can be fueled with gasoline to generate extra electricity. More important, the Volt will cost $20,000 less than WhiteStar. A plug-in Prius probably will offer the least amount of pure electric power, but it will offer more than 100 mpg and it will be the cheapest of the three.

Of course, different folks have different needs. Which car interests you most?

EVs: Why Nissan makes me laugh

A good, leased start?

Just a few years ago, Nissan's Carlos Ghosn was the darling of the auto world, having completely turned around struggling Nissan. During that turnaround, however, Ghosn was very bearish on hybrid cars. Nissan's only hybrid, the Altima hybrid, is significantly based on leased Toyota technology.

Yet, over the last few months - as oil prices have skyrocketed - Nissan has been speaking ever more about electric cars. Even today, Nissan announced that it is ready to supply batteries to any automaker interested electric vehicles, yet Nissan isn't offering any new electric vehicles.

Is Nissan an automaker or a battery manufacturer? Why not build a few electric cars before hyping up the media with your EV capabilities?

Electrification of the auto: Just a hedge against CAFE?

How many plug-in hybrids will automakers really build?

GM's Bob Lutz has become a huge fan of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. Nissan has been a hybrid bear, but an electric vehicle bull - at least in terms of talk and future plans. Yet, Honda, the cleanest most fuel efficient major automaker, has been an electric vehicle super bear, claiming conventional hybrid vehicles and then fuel cells are the solution (of course a fuel cell vehicle is an electric vehicle).

What's going on?

There is a whisper in the auto world claiming that while electric automobiles have great potential, automakers have no interest in a major conversion from gas to electric anytime soon. Instead, automakers talking electric have very specific plans to only make enough expensive electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles to balance their fleet fuel economy (CAFE).

Is the move towards the electrification of the automobile a real movement, or just PR and regulation-driven gimmickry?

Two peas in a pod: EV fans and Maximum Bob

The father of the modern electric car?

GM's Bob Lutz is a favorite in the auto writer's circuit. Anytime you're near Bob Lutz, you know you're about to get your pen on a golden quote. Last week, Manny Lopez had a chance to get a few golden Lutz quotes, but these quotes weren't about Lutz's views on global warming. Instead, Lutz defended the glories of electrification.

Regarding the EV1, however, Lutz stated, "The only things that were wrong with the EV1 (GM's first electric car) was that it was way too expensive to make; it was only a two-passenger; and the battery technology was not ready. It was a noble effort, but it was a technological force job and at a time when nobody cared. We could not find more than 800 buyers for that thing no matter how hard we tried or no matter how much we dropped the price. Finally we had to lease them out."

The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is the perfection of the EV1 according to Lutz.

Now, many EV1 fans - showcased in the movie Who Killed the Electric Car - have disagreed with Lutz, and many of those EV1 fans have seen Bob Lutz and GM as public enemy number 1. Yet, ironically, Bob Lutz is a huge fan of electric vehicles. In fact, much like EV1 fans, Bob Lutz is a fuel cell/hydrogen highway skeptic. Then again, he's also a huge proponent of nuclear power.

So, what's my point?

How do EV fans feel when the greatest proponent of electric vehicles in the Big 6 automakers just happens to be their biggest enemy, Bob Lutz?

Project Better Place: Fill 'er up with batteries?

Israel ready to go electric?

Back in October the NYTimes ran a story on Shai Agassi (more), a 39 year old entrepreneur with high tech roots whom had raised $200 million to develop 'gas' stations for electric cars. Instead of gas, lithium-ion batteries will be replaced with fully charged batteries. Thus, charging won't take hours, not even half an hour. Your battery is simply replaced.

Recently, Israel announced a plan to develop such a system of electric car stations by 2011. Agassi's 'Project Better Place' will develop the stations and Renault-Nissan will produce the electric cars.

So, could such a plan scale to the US? First, the electric cars to be used in Israel will only have about 100 mile range, in the US that might not be sufficient. Will Project Better Place create 'recharging stations' that can accept different sized batteries, for example? Thus, standardization seems like a big obstacle. Second, what about liability? Will Project Better Place assume full responsibility for any battery problems?

Still, Project Better Place is an interesting idea, even if just a niche solution.

Batteries: Still a big problem for plug-ins and electrics

No more loose laptop batteries allowed on airlines?

Earlier this week another lithium-ion battery in a laptop computer burst into flames, and a string of lithium problems have made US transportation authorities take notice. As a a result, loose lithium-ion batteries will not be allowed in checked luggage according to a very interesting article in the Wall Street Journal.

And, if the safety of lithium-ion batteries for computers and cell phones cannot be guaranteed, can it be guaranteed in plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles? Such problems forced Toyota, for example, to delay lithium powered hybrids until at least 2010 or 2011.

"For all the hoopla, nobody yet has figured out how to make a small enough battery that will hold a big enough charge for these new cars -- and not be a risk to burst into flames," states WSJ.

While there a host of small battery makers that have claimed to solve these problems, other battery developers have serious doubts.

"It doesn't matter how far ahead you are in research and development" because all lithium-ion batteries are prone to overheating, no matter what chemistries you use, contends Mitsuru Homma, Sanyo's top battery executive . "Clever design can minimize the chances for overheating. But if you don't have fool-proof manufacturing know-how, you won't be able to guarantee 100% the safety of a battery cell, no matter how safe it may be proven in the lab."

Electric vehicles and nuclear power

Fueled by nuclear power?

Recently I asked the question, Are plug-in hybrids code for nuclear power? With numerous folks on the right supporting plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, I cannot help but think that some are using the move to electric autos as a ploy for more nuclear power.

Yesterday, during the GMnext event, a reporter asked Gary Smyth, Director of Powertrain Systems Research Laboratory, about the electricity needed to 'electrify' automobiles and whether nuclear power would play a role.

"As such, we do see nuclear power potentially playing a role as an energy resource used to produce a fuel for a vehicle," responded Smyth.

At the LA Auto Show, Bob Lutz expressed the same sentiment to me when I asked him if a Chevy Volt fuel cell vehicle made more sense than a plug-in Volt because of America's over-dependence on coal-generated electricity. In fact, Lutz made it obvious that he believes that nuclear power is key to America's future.

I'm not sure where I stand on nuclear power, but I'm skeptical. I wonder, however, do most plug-in hybrid and electric vehicle fans support nuclear power?

Are plug-in hybrids code for nuclear power?

Will the move to electric vehicles lead to nuclear power

For the last several years my dream has been a solar powered home and a plug-in hybrid vehicle, and for years I've seen nothing but the potential of plug-in hybrid vehicles. For me one of the greatest capabilities of plug-in hybrids is the ability to make solar power more cost effective.

Nonetheless, I cannot help but feel that my beloved plug-in hybrids are being hijacked by those interested in nuclear power. Read more....

Mitsubishi hybrid vehicles closer to reality

A Mitsubishi hybrid vehicle concept

Now that Mitsubishi has developed Lithium Energy Japan to developed lithium-ion batteries for hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles, some new plans for such cars should be forthcoming.

Mitsubishi has recently debuted some interesting hybrid concepts, and now it appears some of these hybrids might just put a little rubber to the road.

Chris Paine tells Green Hollywood Who Killed the Electric Car

Is the electric car really dead?

Yesterday, I was at the Hollywood Goes Green forum, and one of the most interesting sessions of the day was one titled Easy Rider: Fuel Usage, Energy Efficient Vehicles and Freight Options. Chris Paine, a member of the panel for this session, and his movie Who Killed the Electric Car took center stage.

As a fan of electric cars, I agree with Chris that, if you drive an electric vehicle, then you know that electric cars are the cars of the future. Nonetheless, I don't agree with Chris that anyone killed the electric car, nor that the electric car was killed by "resistance to change" from consumers, automakers and energy providers. Read more....

Are plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles really green?

The Velozzi plug-in multifuel hybrid electric vehicle

X-Prize contender, the Velozzi plug-in hybrid, is a series plug-in hybrid that, in theory, will achieve 100-200 mpg. Like the Chevy Volt, the Velozzi runs on electricity, and can also use any heavy fuel to generate electricity. Unlike the Volt, however, the Velozzi isn't intended to be a heavy fuel-range extended electric vehicle. Velozzi would prefer that biofuels were used to generate your vehicle's electricity, rather than grid electricity - unless a significant percentage of the grid electricity is NOT powered by coal.

According to the company's website, "A German study recently has indicated that an electric car is as pollutant as an internal combustion engine car if the electricity to charge the electric vehicle comes from a grid that draws 49 percent of its energy from coal-fired power plants. About 57 percent of the world's energy comes from coal-fired plants."

I couldn't find a link to an actual article. While I believe in plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric cars, I do also agree that there are serious issues when it comes to America's electric grid - especially in terms of safety, reliability and global warming.

Epoch - The Holy Grail of Lithium?

Valence's Epoch battery

"Branded Epoch™, Valence believes its new generation of phosphate-based lithium-ion battery systems will move the electric vehicle industry one step closer to the Holy Grail – finding a battery solution that is safe, intelligent, lasts longer and weighs less than outdated technologies being used today. Epoch batteries are equipped with an advanced management system that will monitor and adjust cell performance so battery packs will always operate at their optimum performance capacity. Epoch batteries present a safe, powerful and reliable energy solution designed to be low maintenance, cost competitive and environmentally friendly."

Obviously, there are other important issues to battery success, such as cost. Additionally, press releases often are used more as a financing tool, rather than a sales tool. Nonetheless, as the race to the next generation of batteries continues, it is only inevitable before significantly better and cheaper batteries power next generation hybrid cars, plug-in vehicles, electric cars and even fuel cell vehicles.

Exxon moving from oil to batteries?

No future in oil?

ExxonMobil Chemical and ExxonMobil's Japanese affiliate, Tonen Chemical, have developed new film technologies for lithium-ion batteries with the potential to improve the energy efficiency and affordability of next generation hybrid and electric vehicles, states a press release from Exxon.

“By developing new film technologies that allow lithium-ion batteries to meet hybrid and electric vehicle requirements, ExxonMobil Chemical is helping to make next generation vehicles more energy and cost efficient, as well as lighter,” said Jim P. Harris, senior vice president, ExxonMobil Chemical Company. “We are currently working with industry-leading battery manufacturers to expand the boundaries of current hybrid and electric vehicle applications.”

According to the book ZOOM, oil is more and more being controlled by NOCs, or National Oil Companies. Thus, companies like Exxon are losing their position in the world of oil. Yes, Exxon will probably be a major oil player for many more years, but the Exxons of the world are going to have to diversify. Is this a step towards that diversification?

Malibu/Volt hybrids on the road in 2008

Don't expect the Volt to look like this

Pay attention in the first quarter of 2008, Bob Lutz told an audience of media members on the eve of the Los Angeles Auto Show, that's when a few Malibu bodies will be welded onto a few Chevy Volt frames to begin fully testing these potentially amazing plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Why add a Malibu body to the hot looking Volt? According to Lutz, the Concept Volt's performance in the wind tunnel was a "cruel disappointment". But that's not the real reason. Yes, the Volt body needs some refinement, but the Volt body is hand built right now. Thus, a Malibu body provides a great interim test body.

Still, Mr. Lutz expects the vehicle to achieve 40-45 mpg on electric power. Additionally, Lutz believes that electric vehicles, such as the Volt, are game changers that will, ultimately, enable automakers to abandon conventional automotive technology.

Volting: Bob Lutz did not kill the electric car

The Chevy Volt: Bob Lutz's baby?

Last night, if you read my earlier post then you know, I ate dinner with Bob Lutz. And, I'll tell you one thing, Bob Lutz did not kill the electric car. On the contrary, Bob Lutz is a huge fan of electric vehicles, and the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid is Mr. Lutz's baby.

In fact, Mr. Lutz came across as far more of a plug-in hybrid vehicle and electric vehicle fan than a fuel cell and hydrogen fan, at least in the short term. Even when I tried to discuss some recent breakthroughs in hydrogen research, Lutz pooh-poohed the topic, stating that the U.S. should actively pursue nuclear power for electricity generation.

Nonetheless, it became very apparent last night that the Volt is extremely important to Lutz. Coming to the end of an amazing career, it seems obvious that Lutz sees the Volt as his defining moment. It might just be a defining moment for America as well, a "game changer", as Lutz likes to describe Volt.