Carbon-fiber Megacity EV intrigues

Nice body

BMW confirmed today that it will sell the Megacity compact electric car under an unconfirmed sub-brand by 2013 in the Chinese market.

Beyond that, details are sketchy, however, according to Cars.com, "the car will feature carbon fiber-reinforced materials." Since BMW has a carbon fiber facility in the US, Cars.com suggests a US version wouldn't be shocking.

Who cares? Some version will make it to the US.

Instead, I want to hear more about the carbon fiber, especially considering the Megacity appears to a volume car, which suggests volume pricing. Is carbon fiber finally set to become cost-effective and competitive?

Chinese plugs-ins: What about the coal?

Are coal-powered EVs right for China?

There is a big move afoot in China to quickly move it's developing auto industry from today's petroleum-guzzling technologies to battery powered technologies. Yet, not everyone in China agrees that's a good idea.

Because China derives 83 percent of it's electricity from coal, Huang Xiangdong, vice president of Guangzhou Automobile Group Corp., a major Chinese carmaker that has ventures with Honda Motor Co. and other global players, according to the DetroitNews, believes the move to plug-ins is premature.

Because of this reliance upon coal, according to Xiangdong, "battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids do not save more energy than conventional cars on a well-to-wheel analysis," said Huang. "We think in China it's not the right time to promote pure electric vehicles."

115,000 express interest in Leaf

Ready to order yours?

CNBC is reporting that Nissan is accepting orders for the Nissan Leaf, but the Nissan website states that pre-ordering begins April 20 and that deliveries will begin in December.

Regardless, CNBC reports that some 115,000 have expressed interest in the Leaf, or at least in more information regarding the new electric car.

Ford - Much more fed money needed for battery research

To power with American batteries

"Despite $25 billion to help automakers retool plants, a $7,500 tax credit and billions in stimulus funding for charging stations and related infrastructure, automakers continue to lobby the federal government for more aid to spur sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles," notes Kicking Tires this morning.

And while giving the closing speech at the Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress yesterday, Bill Ford Jr echoed this sentiment, calling for greater government involvement regarding electric vehicles, particularly battery research, according to the DetroitNews.

Nonetheless, as Kicking Tires suggests, and has been discussed endlessly on this blog, doesn't it all really come down to the price of gas?

Quick dropping the EV

Making electric cars more cost-effective

If plug-in vehicles are to ever become cost-effective for the masses, there is a very good chance that new battery technologies beyond lithium-ion will be required. Unfortunately, such new technologies could take decades to develop. Of course, ideas like dynamic charging, where plug-in vehicles could charge while driving, could change that by requiring smaller battery packs.

Likewise, Better Place's idea for "quick dropping" battery packs could also be a difference maker, and Renault and Better Place will be putting this idea to the test in France with a public trial.

While it seems a pretty radical idea, if Better Place can prove the viability of the quick drop, they'll be at the forefront of an entirely new business model of car ownership that not only promises to make EV ownership much cheaper, but car ownership.

Plugging in is America's best chance forward?

The Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid

According to The Electric Coalition, if the US set in motion a plan to be 75 percent EV by 2040, that plan would result in massive job creation, a smaller deficit and an increase in household wealth. Obviously, and of course, the plan would require significant targeted incentives for the purchase of plug-in vehicles, infrastructure, etc.

Sadly, however, the report also shows that the US is probably going to be dependent upon foreign oil for a very long time forward, regardless of whether this plan is put into motion or not.

If true isn't this also more proof of the importance of natural gas, purely as an interim solution, particularly if new horizontal drilling techniques can be proven groundwater safe? Ultimately, it seems natural gas could provide many of the same economic benefits as this EV plan, but sooner. Couldn't that more immediate savings then help fund this EV plan?

Inevitably, it is going to take more than 3 decades for electrification to completely displace the need for America's foreign oil dependence. Can't we do more in the interim to facilitate this plan?

Nissan Leaf to cost less than $26,000 after tax credit

Can it really make money?

The Nissan Leaf will cost $32,780 when it goes on sale at the end of the year. Thus, after the $7500 plug-in tax credit, the Leaf will sell for $25,280.

While the Leaf will sell for $40,000 in Japan, Nissan is lowering the cost for the US market to increase volume, yet the automaker claims it can still make money at this price.

Sounds like a pretty fair price after the tax credit, but it sure seems hard to believe Nissan can make money on this vehicle when similar EVs cost almost $50,000. Still, the key question is, what happens after the tax credit expires? At almost $33,000 Leaf sales will hit a serious wall without a big drop in price.

Japan - 50 percent hybrid and EV by 2020

Japan set to go hybrid crazy?

Bloomberg is reporting that Japan's Office of Ministry is considering goals to make hybrid cars and plug-in vehicles 50 percent of new car sales by 2020 and 70 percent by 2030.

Sounds like a great way to ensure that Japanese automakers maintain their hybrid leadership on the way to plug-in domination.

$8.00 gas - The key to mass plug-in adoption?

VW's Up electric car

Most Americans are not willing to pay much extra for improved fuel economy, especially when gas prices are below $3.00 per gallon. Even at $4.00 or $5.00, most Americans would rather downsize a bit than convert to hybrids. Despite the long term savings on gasoline, most Americans simply avoid hybrid cars because of the extra upfront costs.

And this dilemma could be worse for plug-in hybrids and EVs.

"It's going to be very difficult, unless you have $8-a-gallon gasoline, for any normal consumer to look at a Volt or a Nissan Leaf," John O'Dell, the senior editor of Edmunds' Green Car Advisor, recently told Forbes.

Yet, ironically, some studies have suggested that once gas starts rising far above $5.00 a gallon, Americans start thinking a little less about fuel efficiency, and a little more about paying as little as possible for a new vehicle to offset the increased costs of energy - which affect more than just transportation. So, if gas prices rise too high, interest in plug-ins could actually be stymied rather than increased.

Inevitably, despite the long term value of hybrids and EVs, most Americans are simply not willing to pay more up front to save more in the long term. Are gas prices the only thing that can change this mentality?

EV pricing: Mitsubishi's electric car economics

How can this cost $51,000?

The Mitsubish i-MiEV is a terribly unimpressive car, at least in terms of body design, styling and comfort. The few times I've been in the 100 mile EV, I've wondered why anyone would buy such a vehicle for more than $20,000.

Yet, the i-MiEV costs $51,000. By 2012, Mitsubishi hopes to sell 30,000 i-MiEVs per year, but aren't such numbers completely unrealistic? For instance, why buy an i-MiEV when the Nissan Leaf or the the Chevy Volt will cost significantly less, while offering more?

And that makes me wonder, is Mitsubishi incompetent in either engineering or finance? Is their EV technology just that much more expensive than the competition? Are big profit margins a mandatory requirement?

How is it the Nissan Leaf might sell for $30,000 while the i-MiEV sells for $50,000?

Plug-in adoption underestimated? Big 3 screwed either way?

How much interest?

A new study by PRTM, a global management consulting firm, suggests recent predictions of large format lithium-ion battery surpluses within the next decade are largely "unfounded."

Instead, PRTM is predicting a battery shortfall by 2016. Likewise, even if plug-in demand is less than expected, utility demand for large format batteries could pick up the slack, a point other studies have missed according to PRTM.

Most interesting, the US and Europe are facing serious shortfalls in lithium cell manufacturing compared to Asia. Unfortunately, cell manufacturing accounts for 70 percent of the value of a lithium battery pack - the key to plug-in profits - and this underinvestment in cell manufacturing could "have wide-ranging consequences in global competitiveness."

Trucks and the irrelevance of hybrid and electric cars

The most important vehicle in America?

In February, Ford sold almost 33,000 Ford F Series trucks, making it the top selling vehicle in America, by far. Of the top 3 selling vehicles, 2 were trucks. Inevitably, day after day, month after month, year after year, and decade after decade, large trucks dominate the top of US auto sales.

Nonetheless, while the bread and butter of the Big 3, the 17 mpg all-American truck is killing America.

Fortunately, a few years ago, GM made a pretty smart move and added hybrid technology to its trucks. Unfortunately, despite big increases in fuel economy, especially in city traffic (although how many really need a truck in city driving?), sales for hybrid trucks, such as the Chevy Silverado hybrid, have been almost non-existent because of the significant upfront costs.

Of course, sales for the Chevy Volt range extended electric car will be much better than GM's hybrid trucks. Still, it might take more than a decade for the Volt to achieve even a third of the sales the F Series is currently achieving and possibly far longer.

While the development of small hybrid and electric cars is critical, isn't it time to put more energy into the real problem?

Accenture: Fuel economy not enough to mainstream hybrids and EVs

60 percent want hybrids to be superior in every way

According to a new Accenture Study taken in the US, Canada, Germany, France and Italy, 6 out 10 consumers will only buy a hybrid when it is "superior to gasoline-only models in every way." Likewise, just 36 percent of consumers cited higher gas prices as a reason to buy a hybrid or electric car.

Unfortunately, according to the survey, "those that have driven a hybrid or electric vehicle rate fuel efficiency as being very good to excellent, but most rate the ride, performance, style and maintenance as good at best."

Thus, Accenture concludes that automakers will need to "achieve competitive differentiation, " such as "distinctive capabilities, particularly around safety, environmental protection and entertainment” to achieve mainstream success with hybrid and electric vehicles.

On a side note, of the 42 percent that are willing to buy a hybrid or EV in the next few years, 80 percent are interested in hybrid cars rather than electric vehicles.

Study: Dynamic plug-ins key to cost-effectiveness

Simply more expensive compared to conventional and hybrid cars, despite energy savings

The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory is prepared to release a new study on ways of achieving plug-in hybrid and EV cost-effectiveness. Like most studies, the NREL study also finds that under essentially every scenario possible, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles simply are not going to be cost-effective compared to conventional and hybrid vehicles.

However, the NREL study concludes that there is a promising new approach to plug-in vehicles called "dynamic plug-ins" that could be a difference maker. Essentially, dynamic plug-ins would recharge while moving, enabling smaller battery packs, yet more electricity consumption.

Of course, such an infrastructure for mobile charging is currently non-existent, but if developed, it would be a game-changing technology for plug-in vehicle cost-effectiveness, even with the limitations of current lithium-ion technologies.

Nissan Leaf cheaper than expected? Order in April

No separate battery lease in America?

Beginning in April electric car fans can put down a refundable $100 deposit on a new Nissan Leaf, with deliveries starting in August. Thus far, Nissan expects to sell or lease about 20,000 Leafs based upon initial demand forecasts.

What's becoming more interesting, however, is guessing the final cost of the Leaf. For a while Nissan has claimed that pricing would be similar to that of Toyota Prius, although the battery was be leased separately, adding an extra monthly cost on top of the car.

Today, Insideline is reporting that Nissan will not lease the battery separately, at least not in the US. So, does that mean the cost of the Leaf is going up? Is Nissan going to take a more significant loss on the Leaf to get sales rolling? I guess we'll know by April.

What do 100,000 Volts, Leafs or Prius hybrids per year really mean?

No impact on foreign oil dependence for 2 decades?

For several years now, Toyota has sold more than 100,000 Prius hybrids per year in the US. In fact, Toyota has sold more than 1 million hybrid cars in the US alone.

Yet, what effect have one million hybrids had on US foreign oil dependence? None.

Soon, GM will launch the highly-anticipated Chevy Volt, yet it might be a decade before GM is selling 100,000 Volts per year. Likewise, late this year Nissan will begin US production of the Leaf electric car. When Nissan's new production facility is fully operational, it will produce up to 150,000 Leafs per year.

Yet again, what impact will these vehicles have on foreign oil dependence?

Unfortunately, according to numerous studies, ALL electric vehicle sales in the US, combined, won't have any noticeable impact on foreign oil dependence for probably another TWO decades, and even then the effect might still be marginal.

Certainly, automakers have to start electrifying the automobile somewhere, and the Prius, Volt and Leaf are all noble and important products. Nonetheless, their impact upon the environment and foreign oil dependence will remain meaningless for decades.

Is this really the best that America can do?

Forget hybrids and EVs: Just make cars smaller and lighter?

Could it be this easy?

According to an Oxford Study the best path to decreasing emissions in autos, in the short term, requires a serious decrease in weight and size.

Over the medium term, however, the study finds that hybrid cars, such as the Toyota Prius, offer "significant savings" while helping electric drive trains evolve.

While EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles offer interesting potential long term, all have serious issues to overcome in the short to medium term, such as raw material availability.

Finally, first generation biofuels offer some localized uses. Second generation biofuels show more promise, but will still probably be constrained by land availability. Algae shows some probability of overcoming the land availability issue, but massive innovations and breakthroughs are still required.

US Nissan Leaf production loaned into action

Coming soon

With the help of a $1.4 billion US Department of Energy loan, Nissan is on the path towards US production of the Nissan Leaf electric car, as well the assembly of the Leaf's lithium-ion battery packs.

Limited Leaf production should begin later this year, but when the plant is fully operational, Nissan will be able to produce 150,000 Leafs and 200,000 battery packs at the new Smyrna, Tennessee plant.

Pricing has not been released, but CEO Carlos Ghosn has stated that the Leaf will only cost about 1 - 2 percent more than a gasoline car.

A plan to be 40 percent electric by 2020?

Are Americans ready and willing?

Calling foreign oil dependency “one of the most devastating policy failures of our time”, ex New York Governor, George Pataki, called for new programs to ensure that America is 40 percent electric drive vehicles by 2020.

Today, most experts predict that electric drive penetration will be about 3 - 7 percent by 2020. Therefore, to increase the rate of adoption, Pataki suggests a number of new policies, such as rebates for EVs instead of tax credits, tax exemptions for automakers and incentives for battery development.

Mary Ann Wright, VP and Managing Director, Johnson Controls Business Accelerator for Advanced Energy Storage Solutions, was far less optimistic and claimed demand for such vehicles simply doesn't exist to achieve 40 percent electric vehicle penetration by 2020. Ultimately, "gasoline is too cheap."

Global Insight: 20 percent plugged in by 2030

Still a ways to go

Global Insight has released a new white paper on plug-in vehicles according to GreenCarCongress.

The white paper, Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case, forecasts that pure electric cars will achieve a 9.9 percent market share by 2030, while plug-in hybrids will achieve a 8.6 percent market share by 2030.

Like other studies, battery reliability and costs, infrastructure and consumer expectations are the critical issues to overcome to increase plug-in adoption.

Toyota powertrain exec admires Chevy Volt

A sensible approach to plug-ins?

In a recent interview with CNN, Bill Reinert, Toyota's head of advanced powertrain research, explains that Toyota is not going to rush into pure electric cars. A combination of costs and technological limitations ensure, according to Reinert, that EVs are still far from mass consumer adoption.

Therefore, underwhelming EV consumers with expensive technology that falls short of expectations could slow EV penetration long term, according to Reinert.

However, in the interview Reinert does single out the Chevy Volt as a more sensible approach to pure EVs because it provides a realistic solution to range anxiety.

Audi exec continues hybrid and EV slam

Still not viable even after a $7500 tax credit?

Yesterday, Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen, continued his attack on the political love affair between D.C. politicians, including President Obama, and electric cars, claiming that plug-ins were probably two decades away from widespread use.

"The 50 percent or so price increase that the Volt represents over a similar gasoline car cannot be offset through the savings from reduced fuel compensation," de Nysschen said. "The only way to offset the extreme premium is through taxpayer-funded subsidies," and that according to de Nysschen, "is not sustainable."

Instead, de Nysschen claims the free market should determine the winners, and according to de Nysschen, clean diesel would be a winner that would significantly reduce foreign oil consumption.

California cities battle to lure Tesla

And the EV wars are on, kind of

Just when it seemed the city of Downey, CA was a shoe-in to become the next electric vehicle assembly plant for Tesla, Long Beach stepped up the stakes.

A few weeks ago, Tesla and Downey appeared to agree on a $8.9 million deal to set up an assembly plant.

Yesterday, however, the city of Long Beach approved a plan to offer Tesla $28 million to build an assembly plant in that city.

Will it all come down to the Benjamins?

Ford seeks tax credits to begin EV battery production

The Ford Focus EV

If Ford can acquire about $120 million in state funding from Michigan, the automaker will invest up to $500 million to develop batteries for its EVs in the state while hiring up to 1,000 workers.

If the future of the automobile is the battery, it seems Michigan has no choice but to acquiesce to Ford's demands if keeping Ford in Michigan is job one.

VW UP electric car coming to US market

The UP Lite at the LA Auto Show

There aren't many details, but it has been reported that an EV version of the UP, based closely on the UP Lite concept version pictured in this post, is coming to the US market. Early word suggests the new EV will be called the Space UP! Blue.

After 1 million miles, interesting plug-in hybrid results

A Prius being converted into a plug-in hybrid

The Department of Energy has now logged more than 1 million testing miles with their fleet of plug-in hybrids, and they've collected some interesting data.

First, driver behavior, charging frequency and environmental conditions have significant impact on plug-in hybrid efficiency. Second, driving patterns suggest per day driving range is much less than expected. Third, forgetting to plug-in is common and should be expected. And finally, non-charging energy use could be significant.

In Best plug-in vehicles: EVs, Range Extended EVs, or Plug-in Hybrids? I suggested that no one plug-in vehicle is a game changer, and this data doesn't change my mind.

Nonetheless, this data does seem to show that consumers might not be ready to to fully utilize plug-in vehicles, especially plug-in hybrid or range extended electric vehicles. For instance, if consumers do not piously plug-in, the cost-effectiveness of plug-ins can decrease significantly, especially as the battery size increases. Considering that plug-ins aren't very cost-effective to start, this could be a serious issue.

Gas Tax: Good idea, but "no political interest"

Plug-in adoption to be slow and gradual

In the past week Nissan/Renault head, Carlos Ghosn has been on an EV publicity tour. Yesterday, however, Ghosn seemed to take a more tempered approach towards electric vehicles.

"We're not going to take the market by storm," said Ghosn at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. "Electricity is going to complement oil."

Still, Ghosn believes that EVs could reach 10 percent worldwide marketshare by 2020, one of the higher estimates in the industry.

At the same meeting Steve Rattner, one time leader of the Obama Auto Task Force, was asked about a gas tax.

"It's obviously what we should do," Rattner said. "There's no political will. There's no political interest."

Nissan, Fed Ex ask gov for $124 billion for plug-ins

The Nissan Leaf electric vehicle

A group calling itself the Electrification Coalition, led by Nissan and Federal Express, is asking for the government to spend $128 billion over 8 years to help make electricity the fuel of cars.

The EV group "is urging Congress to pass a series of tax credits and loan guarantees to help bring 14 million electric cars to the road by 2020. Their plan envisions building up the use of electric vehicles in six to eight cities in the short term with the goal of making 75 percent of all vehicle miles traveled powered by electricity by 2040."

I'd like to see the whole plan, but this seems a little presumptuous considering not one major automaker has even yet sold a plug-in vehicle. Likewise, the government is already putting up $50 billion+ just to help automakers achieve new CAFE standards. If such a plan were to move forward, wouldn't it be better to reallocate that $50 billion in CAFE funds to this plan, for instance?

More important, if the government is to foot the bill for electrification, shouldn't the plan be as comprehensive as possible, and ensure that the recently bailed out US auto industry is a central focus of the plan?

Study - Energy costs much more than consumers pay

And plug-ins don't help much if coal-powered

Some great information coming out of the “Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use” study completed by the National Research Council for Congress.

Essentially, America's energy paradigm costs Americans MUCH more than what we pay at the gas pump or in our utility bills. In 2005, for instance, America's 'hidden' costs of energy production added an extra $120 billion in health costs, not including "damages from climate change, harm to ecosystems, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security, which the report examines but does not monetize."

So, in reality, the costs are even far greater, and converting to grid-powered plug-in vehicles is no quick fix, at least in terms of health costs.

"Electric vehicles and grid-dependent (plug-in) hybrid vehicles showed somewhat higher nonclimate damages than many other technologies for both 2005 and 2030. Operating these vehicles produces few or no emissions, but producing the electricity to power them currently relies heavily on fossil fuels; also, energy used in creating the battery and electric motor adds up to 20% to the manufacturing part of life-cycle damages."

Of course, if national security costs had been monetized, then some of these health costs would be negated.

Consequently, the reports suggests that, "major initiatives to further reduce other emissions, improve energy efficiency, or shift to a cleaner electricity-generating mix (e.g., renewables, natural gas, nuclear) could substantially reduce external effects’ damages, including those from grid-dependent hybrid and electric vehicles."

A case for plug-in hybrids

A Prius about to be converted into a plug-in hybrid

My power went out just before midnight last night and I've blown through both of my notebook's batteries.

No worries. My hybrid is full of juice, so I'm working in my car right now, and this whole experience has me thinking about plug-in vehicles.

Until a much more robust infrastructure for EV charging is developed, instances such as these - and it only takes one - will remind consumers of why a plug-in hybrid is simply a more comforting choice of vehicle than a pure EV.

EVs leading to a "green bubble"?

Buy the Leaf, rent the $10,000 battery?

By 2020, Nissan's Carlos Ghosn recently claimed, 10 percent of worldwide vehicle sales will be electric vehicles.

Global Insight, however, puts that EV market share figure at .06 percent, according to the DetroitNews.

Likewise, the same article cites a CitiGroup Markets Report aimed at investors in the power utilities and the auto companies that warns cost barriers, the need for massive incentives, range issues, and a lack of infrastructure create the "risk of this [EVs] being another green bubble."

Even before EVs take off, Deutsche Bank believes that hybrid cars, small cars and other fuel efficient technologies will cause an "inexorable and accelerating decline" in gasoline demand beginning in 2015.

If true, how will governments afford massive incentives for EVs and EV infrastructure if their gas tax revenues begin to decline significantly? Furthermore, if gasoline demand declines, won't gas prices also decline and make it even harder to entice consumers into more expensive electric cars?

The irreconcilable EV dichotomy?

Madness or genius?

Sure, the Toyota FT-EV II electric car is odd, but is it practical? Is it cost-effective compared to other electric vehicles or even gasoline vehicles?

For instance, how many Americans can afford a two-seat $90,000 electric Roadster just for commuting? Even $45,000 is still far too expensive.

And that's the genius of a vehicle like the FT-EV. It's EV practicality. Why buy more than you need? If kept simple and on task, costs can more easily be contained for EVs, especially EVs built for average commuters.

Of course, is the American auto consumer driven by practicality?

Still, Honda has shown similar ideas, as has Mitsubishi. Nissan's Leaf isn't quite so economically focused, but it's definitely closer to the FT-EV side of the dichotomy growing between cheap EVs and luxurious EVs, as is the revolutionary Better Place idea.

One the other hand, one week luxury vehicle maker Audi is slamming the Chevy Volt, the next week they are announcing plans for the Audi E-Tron, a luxury electric vehicle. The Volt doesn't make sense, but the E-Tron does?

Then again, everyone is building a luxury EV or luxury plug-in hybrid these days, at least a few of them. Isn't this really more about marketing at this time? Besides, are luxury EVs and luxury plug-in hybrid vehicles really the path to cost-effective evonomics? Or, are cost-effective evonomics dependent upon a more practical, efficient realization of the automobile, such as the Leaf or the FT-EV II?

Can Americans really have their EV cake and eat it to, or is a revolution in America's auto culture required to really move America's auto industry, and auto consumer, forward?

Toyota: Fuel cell hybrids ARE the best hybrids

A fuel cell version by 2015?

What's the future of the automobile? Hybrids, plug-ins or fuel cell vehicles?

All of the above according to Toyota.

Obviously, Toyota already sells a number of hybrid cars, and Toyota will begin rolling out plug-in electric vehicles by 2012, followed by fuel cell hybrids in 2015.

While demonstrating how Toyota plans to cut fuel cell costs, the company noted that plug-in vehicles will be used for small, short range intra-city vehicles. However, for larger vehicles and longer ranges, Toyota believes that fuel cell hybrids are the most well-to-wheel efficient autos compared to conventional hybrids, plug-in EVs and conventional gas vehicles.

A glimpse into the future of city transportation?

The all electric EV-N

Want a small, cheap plug-in vehicle for your daily commuting?

I'm guessing that's the vision behind the Honda EV-N concept.

If this is the future of the automobile, that future probably won't be built in America, I'm guessing. By the time we get it, it'll be too late.

Is America's auto culture, though proud and historic, killing the US auto industry?

BYD: A legitimate hybrid killer

BYD EVs coming to the US next year

In 1995, BYD became another Asian company entering the advanced battery space, with a strong focus on automotive technologies. Just several years ago, however, BYD decided it was time to put its technology into its own vehicles.

This year, BYD expects to sell 400,000 vehicles, including a few plug-in hybrids.

Obviously, such an ouput is largely insignificant compared to Ford or GM, however, BYD has achieved this production rate in just a few years. Moreover, by 2025, BYD believes it will be producing more vehicles than Toyota.

And investors like Warren Buffet are buying into this long term potential.

Certainly, it will take time for BYD to appeal to US consumers, however, when this does happen - and it will happen - China could become a killer of American hybrid cars and electric vehicles. Not only will BYD have access to cheaper battery and auto manufacturing capabilites, but also better and cheaper access to lithium and rare earth metals.

Then again, Mr. Buffett isn't always right, but if he is, won't it be awfully difficult for US automakers - even Toyota as well - to compete with BYD, especially in advanced, fuel efficient technologies and their slim profit margins?

Frankfurt EV buzz irrelevant in America?

Would it sell in America?

According to much of the press coming out of the Frankfurt Auto Show, the buzz there is humming around electric vehicles. And, while some of the concept vehicles debuting there seem down right silly, at least by American standards, they just might work in Europe, where small, silly cars - again by American standards - are already acceptable.

More important, however, Europe has the kind of fuel prices that could actually make these vehicles cost-effective one day.

Can electric vehicles ever resonate with the American masses without significantly higher energy prices, and/or at least a revolutionary embrace of small, odder-than-the-Prius vehicles?

Audi President claims Volt and EVs for "idiots" and "intellectual elite"

"A car for idiots"?

During an MSN interview Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen called the Chevy Volt "a car for idiots" largely because of its price premium. In fact, he claims the Volt will be a failure, but that the government will continue to subsidize the Volt because of its investment into GM.

Likewise, de Nysschen also slammed full electric cars saying, "They're for the intellectual elite who want to show what enlightened souls they are." However, he did concede that, theoretically, plug-in hybrids could offer advantages over diesel.

0.5% market share for plug-ins by 2015?

Great for media, but how about the real world?

If it were up to me, I'd cancel the cash for clunkers program and offer an unlimited tax credit, at least through 2015, for any and every vehicle that achieves at least 50 mpg combined. I might even add an additional credit for any vehicle that achieves 100 mpg combined.

Ultimately, I'd bet that would lead to a rush in development of hybrid cars and other plug-in vehicles if the credit were similar to the clunker's program.

Without such a program, I've written that battery powered vehicles are going nowhere fast. For instance, according to JD Power or CSM Worldwide, hybrids and plug-ins will only achieve a marketshare of 3.6 percent by 2015, compared to 1.6 percent in 2009. Plug-in vehicles will achieve a market share of just .5%.

Say JD Power is wrong. Say JD has some hidden agenda. However, thus far, JD has done a pretty good job of predicting hybrid vehicle market share.

Is there too much hype around the battery-powered revolution? If the battery-powered car is our goal, why not be realistic about what it's going to take to get us there?

Aptera 2e steps closer to production

Latest interior sketch of the Aptera 2e

The final touches are being added to the Aptera 2e electric vehicle, which is scheduled to begin production this year. Aptera has released this sketch of the latest interior design.

In 2010, Aptera will also roll out the plug-in hybrid version of the Aptera.

It's still a strange vehicle and cost-effectiveness could be an issue. Beginning at $25,000, this limited seating vehicle will only resonate with a small group of consumers. Of course, $25,000 isn't very much to many early adopters of such technologies, especially in the auto segment.

Nonetheless, I love the out-of-the-box thinking on the 2e. Hopefully, Aptera will sell enough of these vehicles to provide the R&D resources to keep refining their unconventional, yet brilliant, ideas.

Nissan closer to small hybrids, but not sold yet

No more HSD for Nissan

At a technology briefing regarding Nissan's electric vehicle plans, Executive Vice President Mitsuhiko Yamashita said "Japan's No.3 automaker had made no final decision about actually offering small and mid-sized hybrid vehicles, but said the technology may be necessary for consumers who need fuel-efficient, all-purpose cars that have the same driving range as conventional gasoline or diesel cars," reports Reuters.

While claiming that zero emission vehicles would be the ideal path forward, Yamashita acknowledged that electric vehicles "might take a while"; therefore, small and medium sized hybrid vehicles could provide a good interim - and probably more cost-effective - offering.

Conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric cars, can forward-looking automakers afford not to produce all three?

Study: Battery Swapping the key to electric cars

Bad news for the auto industry?

A new study by the University of California at Berkeley finds that the key to electric vehicle success could be dependent upon the ability of electric car owners to swap their batteries. Under such a plan consumers might own their car, but not the battery, much like the idea behind Project Better Place.

I haven't been able to read the whole study yet, but I've been a big fan of Better Place's out of the box thinking. Nonetheless, it makes me wonder, is the entire established auto industry capable of surviving such a business model?

Daimler: Clean diesel is not enough

A Mercedes hybrid vehicle

While the future of the electrification of the automobile is still murky, Daimler is now fully committed to being a leader. Despite cutbacks in every department, R & D spending on lithium technology has been increasing and will not be cut.

From hybridization to full electric cars, Daimler is now certain clean, high performance diesel will not be enough to carry the company into the future. The battery is now critical to Daimler, and its marquee Mercedes brand.

"It's clear that a dramatic transition period has started," Thomas Weber, head of R&D, tells Fortune "and we want to actively shape it."

Thus, expect a a wide range of mild hybrids, full hybrids and electric cars from Daimler in the very near future.

Waiting for the EV revolution? Grab a comfy chair

Is the Prius already old technology?

Over the years I've heard many say they won't buy another car until it comes with a plug. Well, for most Americans, they'll be waiting a long time for a new car, especially if they want a pure electric vehicle.

In a new article today, Ron Cogan asks, "Will buyers pay $15,000 to $25,000 more for a vehicle that runs solely on batteries compared to a similar gasoline or clean diesel model?"

Of course not, which is why conventional vehicles and hybrid cars, including plug-in hybrids, will be the dominant automotive technologies for the short-to-midterm, or even longer.

And analysis by Bosch Automotive Group suggests the same. "The electric car will come, but in small numbers at first. It will occupy a niche and will not make a noticeable mark on the roads until after 2020." Ultimately, "dominance of the internal-combustion engine will remain unchallenged over the next twenty years."

Is the government's focus on plugging in too much too soon? Shouldn't the focus be on getting batteries, especially next gen batteries, into as many cars as soon as possible, rather than just those with plugs? Can America really afford to give the cheap hybrid vehicle market away to the Asians the same way we gave away small cars just a few decades ago? Even worse, might this focus on the plug be counter-productive to developing an American battery manufacturing industry?

EV cost check: $47,000 for an i MiEv?

It is clean and green though

During media days at the LA Auto show I spent a good bit of time sitting in the i MiEV, imaging myself as a driver and a passenger. Opening and shutting doors. Just really trying to get a feel for the vehicle. Ultimately, I assumed the reason for this car feeling so small and, I hate to say it, but cheap, was to help make this car more affordable.

Yet, today Mitsubishi has announced that the i MiEV is going on sale this year in Japan for $47,500. Isn't that wildly expensive for such a vehicle with only 100 mile range?

Moreover, it really makes me wonder how much the Chevy Volt is really going to cost at first. Somehow I think GM is banking on some funny accounting in order to sell the Volt at $40,000.

Time to pull the plug on the Chevy Volt?

It just can't help GM?

If you hate GM, then you probably don't think much of the Chevy Volt. In fact, you might even call it an unrealistic hype machine into which GM has sunk far too much money.

That's the argument the Washington Post makes today, and I have to admit, it's a pretty persuasive argument. For instance, the article points to numerous analyses, including some done by President Obama's auto task force, that indicate the economics simply don't make sense for a vehicle like the Volt. Thus, how can the Volt help GM's bottom line?

For example, even with $4.00 gas, it would still take, minimally, six years for the the Volt to recover its costs compared to today's Toyota Prius. And, that's assuming the Volt will only cost $30,000 after huge government tax credits and subsidies. Even at such a cost, it would still take far longer for many other Volt owners to recover their costs compared to a Prius.

Thus, this Post editorial suggests pulling the plug on the Volt, and I couldn't disagree more.

I have long argued that the Volt should never have been an excuse not to develop a Prius-contender. Perhaps GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrid system can fill this void, but cheap quality hybrids will be a necessity for any automaker in the very near future.

Fortunately, GM's billion dollar investment into the Volt could help produce such cheap hybrid vehicles, aside from the Volt. Because much of GM's Volt investment has been centered around one core technology, lithium-ion batteries, GM could conceivably parlay this knowledge into many different types of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Hence, to call GM's Volt venture a waste that helped lead to bankruptcy and a loss of corporate reputation is pure nonsense.

I've seen GM's battery labs. I've seen GM's virtual design center. These two elements alone could make GM's Volt investment worth the cost, even if the Volt itself is another decade away from any sort of real world, cost-effective impact.

Nonetheless, the Volt cannot save GM in the next decade. However, that does not mean the plug should be pulled on the Volt. Instead, it means GM needs to utilize the massive amount of intelligence gleaned from the Volt and convert it into a more well-rounded and balanced hybrid and electric vehicle portfolio, including the Volt.

If GM can do that, the Volt might just be GM's smartest investment ever. If not, maybe we shouldn't just pull the plug on the Volt, but GM.

Ford lithium research to begin paying off next year?

A lithium powered Escape at Hybridfest

Starting next year Ford is going to begin building a new generation of hybrid vehicles and electric cars based off of lithium-ion research that Ford has been carrying out with potential suppliers and university researchers. According to the DetroitNews, much of this new research will be highlighted this week at the SAE World Congress.

According to early reports, Ford will be able to produce lithium batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles that are not only 5 percent more efficient than NiMH batteries, but 30 percent cheaper to mass manufacture.

We say bring it on and let's end this 25,000 hybrid per year quota that Ford has been stuck on for years!

How secure would a national smart grid be?

Forget storm outages, what about cybersecurity?

It's 2020. Now, imagine a 90 square mile patch of solar panels in the desert of the SouthWest powering all of America via a super grid. Now imagine plug-in vehicles throughout America powering up via clean, green solar power. No oil. No dirty coal. Just clean, green solar energy.

Sounds great, right?

Right up until some cyberterrorist shuts the grid down for a couple of weeks and you can't power your home or your electric car. Good thing I'll be driving a plug-in hybrid, and living in a home with solar panels (hopefully)!

All kidding aside, the recent cyberterrorist scouting of the current electric grid is a reminder that the plug-in revolution isn't without obstacles, perhaps massive obstacles which might significantly increase the costs of electric power.

Certainly, we should continue to move forward with national smart grid plans and solar farms, but more effort in the short-to-midterm, in my opinion, should also be focused on small battery plug-in hybrids - versus large battery vehicles - and more distributed energy, especially regarding home solar and wind solutions.

PUMA: Pure joke or possibilities?

Now that's outside of the box

Can a two-wheeled, two-seat electric vehicle change the face of transportation? Probably not any time soon. Still, it's nice to see GM investigate something so, well, small.

Perhaps more interesting than the vehicle, "The Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility, or PUMA, project also would involve a vast communications network that would allow vehicles to interact with each other, regulate the flow of traffic and prevent crashes from happening," according to AP reports.

Capable of 35 mpg and 35 mile range, the PUMA is ready to be launched today, however, no production date has been set, nor have any cost details been released.

Chrysler and A123: Great Green PR but......

A Chrysler EV at the LA auto show

I'm out of shape. Yet, yesterday I finished a concrete patio that required thousands of pounds of ready mix - hand mixed 90# bag by 90# bag.

So, if I'm more cynical that usual, it's only because I'm hurting.

Still, when I read about the Chrysler / A123 partnership on EV batteries, I couldn't help but think, GREENWASH.

Already, President Obama's task force has stated that the Chevy Volt really can't help GM's bottom line any time soon. In fact, the Volt might not be profitable for at least another decade or more.

On the other hand, the task force is less than 30 days from forcing Chrysler into bankruptcy if they don't merge with Fiat. So, can EVs really be expected to help Chrysler's bottomline sooner than GM's?

Who cares? Green press is good - even if it isn't realistic - and this announcement is especially good. It's two US companies. So, it isn't just Chrysler auto jobs, but also high tech battery jobs - perfect for Obama's green, high tech, clean energy plans.

Sounds great. It has grant and government loan written all over it, which is fine. I love A123Systems. Still, if gas prices aren't sustainably doubled, at least, in the next few years, the idea that lithium will make help make Chrysler viable in the next decade is pure fantasy.

Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Plain and simple cost effectiveness

Later this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.

So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.

The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.

Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.

FINISH: Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics