Lightening the load to better fuel economy

The evolution of carbon fiber

One of the greatest ways to increase fuel economy is to reduce weight. Thus, exotic materials, such as carbon fiber, have excited automakers with the possibility of much lighter, yet stronger, cars. Unfortunately, costs have kept these materials from mainstreaming.

Recently, however, BMW announced that its Megacity electric car would use carbon fiber. As the Megacity is planned as a volume vehicle, it's use of carbon fiber implies the possibility of some cost-effective angle.

Likewise, Daimler also announced it will increase the use of carbon fiber in its Mercedes SL class. Of course, the SL class is an expensive class of vehicle, so perhaps carbon fiber isn't quite there yet.

Regardless, a new study by Lotus demonstrates that most vehicles could be made 38 percent lighter by 2020 at a cost of just 3 percent, while improving fuel economy by 23 percent. Furthermore, the Lotus study also achieved an additional 13 percent reduction in powertrain weight using hybrid technology.

Cost-effective, safe fuel economy. For what are we waiting?

Hybrids and the end of the American car

Karma: Is this really the path towards efficiency for the masses?

For decades the US has driven the world's auto industry. If an automaker could make it here, they could make it anywhere. But, is America still that important?

Recently, China topped the US in auto sales, yet the Chinese auto market has barely been scratched. Likewise, add in the potential of all 4 BRIC countries, let alone the rest of the emerging markets, and the importance of the US market could be significantly marginalized in just a decade or two.

Even more interesting, by 2030, according to a plethora of research, hybrid cars and EVs - the proverbially future of the US market - will achieve, in a best case scenario, a combined 30 percent share in the US. Yet, in the developing world, share will probably be significantly lower as most research suggests emerging markets will embrace far cheaper forms of transportation than US-like products.

Thus, just how important is the battery to auto industry success?

When Henry Ford, for example, revolutionized the US auto industry, his success was driven by efficiency. Efficient scalability, or cost-effective solutions for the greatest numbers, powered the US auto industry for decades. Then, of course, the market saturated and maximized quarterly profits, rather than increased efficiency, took over the US auto market.

But the automotive world is quickly changing. New and huge, yet totally un-American markets are quickly emerging. While American autos might be cost-effective for some early adopters in some emerging markets, will they be cost-effective for the masses? Will adding batteries to American autos make them more cost-effective, or less cost-effective, for the masses?

If Henry Ford's efficient scalability is the key to the future of auto industry success, doesn't the US market have to become more worldly? Moreover, can the world market, ultimately, be based on anything other than the cheapest and safest efficiency possible, whether that includes batteries or not?

Volt technology only good for Volt-sized cars

Only for the Delta platform

Alan Taub, GM's head of global research and development, recently told AutoCar that the Voltec powertrain powering the Chevy Volt is only viable for Volt-sized vehicles. According to Taub, GM's range extended electric vehicle technology is too big for cars smaller than the Volt, and adding batteries for larger vehicles would make the powertrain too heavy.

Instead, GM will probably look to a plug-in version of its dual mode hybrid technology for bigger than Volt vehicles, and it's new BAS hybrid powertrain for smaller hybrid cars.

75 percent of Chinese want to buy a hybrid

Citroen's Chinese hybrid

Yesterday, I flipped on CNBC and caught the end of Jim Cramer commenting on recent Chinese energy moves, during which Cramer roughly remarked that China doesn't care about next quarter's profits. Communists don't think in quarters, he said, instead they think multi-year. Likewise, Cramer claimed that China is making moves based on 2020 supply projections.

Can America compete with this?

Just the other day 13 Chinese lithium battery related companies bought out Australian-based Galaxy Resources Limited's lithium carbonate product for the next five years. Like the Japanese and Koreans, the Chinese are also making huge lithium moves, including mining their own lithium and rare metals.

Likewise, a few days ago Citroen announced the launch of the Citroen Metropolis Concept, a hybrid designed in China for the Chinese market, Citroen's largest market outside of Europe. Similarly, GM recently pushed ahead the launch of the Chevy Volt in China, where that automaker currently maintains a next gen powertrain and battery lab.

More important, already the Chinese realize oil-powered Buicks are not their future. Recently, a couple of new consumer studies found that 3 of 4 Chinese auto consumers are ready to buy a "new energy" vehicle, with most expressing interest in gasoline hybrid cars. Of course, like most American consumers, the purchase is dependent upon cost. In China, consumers are willing to pay 11 - 15 percent more for a hybrid compared to a conventional vehicle.

This potential pushed Warren Buffett to buy a large share of Chinese battery and car producer BYD, a company Buffett believes will quickly become the world's largest automaker, with much of its success built upon battery-powered hybrids and plug-in vehicles. Most important, that success could be largely independent of both US and European auto markets if nationalism were to overtake the Chinese market.

Certainly, none of this guarantees Chinese success, but I wouldn't bet against this waking giant.

Hitachi battery breakthrough not for cars?

Only for large scale storage

I've been following a story on Hitachi lithium magnesium batteries for the last week or two. When I originally read about this breakthrough, I was a bit skeptical. Just days earlier, I had learned that Hitachi desperately needed to derive new sources of revenue, so I suspected this claim of doubling the life span of lithium batteries might just have been an overly positive statement meant for potential shareholders.

Instead, it seems to be the real deal.

Sadly, however, there is no near term value for such batteries in the automotive space, instead these batteries are specifically designed for large scale industrial use, such as "electrical power storage in wind power generation and other new energy fields, and as industrial power sources for electric-powered construction machinery designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

In fact because of the potential of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrids, Hitachi worried that increased demand for cobalt would eventually make its large scale battery applications too expensive. Hence, several years ago Hitachi began developing new lithium ion batteries that used more manganese spinel materials, rather than cobalt. Unfortunately, first gen batteries only offered a life span of about 5 years, but new prototypes based on new cathode materials have shown the ability to double this lifespan.

Perhaps one day this breakthrough will find its way into hybrids and plug-ins, but even if not ever suitable for automotive applications, this breakthrough could still help more green energy find its way into plug-in vehicles.

I hate Prius drivers!

You're so smug

Came across MotorTrend's Smug Alert! Paper examines Park Slope Prius Panic and, of course, I had to check it out. Apparently a NY newspaper went into a neighborhood that "so creepily resembles San Francisco" and is, therefore, home to a high number of hybrid drivers. For instance, the reporter went to a Park Slope, NY coop where 6 out of 14 cars in the parking lot were Prius hybrids, so they were interviewed on their worries of sudden acceleration.

None were worried. Instead, these Toyota Prius drivers were concerned with how a few bad drivers and an overly-sensationalized media might hurt the long term value of their hybrid cars.

MotorTrend's author called the newspaper's piece the most insightful story on the hybrid icon since the "Smug Alert!" episode of "South Park", which was actually a pretty funny episode, as there is no doubt some smugness in the hybrid community.

So what?

In my SoCal neighborhood, for instance, there is easily as much smugness amongst USC football fans driving their BMWs and Range Rovers regarding both their luxury vehicles and their football team. At least Prius drivers are deriving their smugness from trying to do something positive - not just for themselves, but for everyone and the environment.

What is football smugness about?

Again, there is no doubt that some Prius drivers are smug. It seems most of us are a little smug about something. Nevertheless, surveys prove that a huge majority of Americans are worried about foreign oil dependence, yet most seemingly just bury their heads in the sand and pretend nothing can be done. Perhaps some of this 'smugness' perception is less about Prius drivers and more about gas-guzzling guilt?

HK Motors to develop natural gas hybrids

An HK concept

I'm still not sure that I believe Hybrid Kinetics Motor Company will be around in 5 years, however, if everything goes as expected, HK will begin producing a family of natural gas hybrid vehicles in 2013 at it's Alabama manufacturing facility.

In partnership with the American Public Gas Association (APGA) and NGVAmerica, HK hopes to develop a new natural gas infrastructure, while lobbying the government to pass the The NAT GAS Act of 2009.

Incentives for hybrid buyers

Even some deals on the Prius?

For the last several months Honda has offered the best deals for hybrid shoppers, but for those not interested in a Honda hybrid, the hybrid bargains haven't been as plentiful.

Last night, however, I stopped by my local Toyota dealership and found several hybrid specials, even on the Toyota Prius. For instance I could lease a package 2 Prius for $249 month, or receive a $500 rebate or 0 percent financing on a Camry hybrid.

Anyone else been shopping hybrid cars recently?

The wrong path to energy independence

The most important vehicle in America?

GreenCarCongress has an interesting summary of two of the latest studies on plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The first, a UC-Davis study "estimates electricity and gasoline use under three recharging scenarios", and amongst its key findings deduces "The majority of gasoline reduction is due to increases in CS (charge-sustaining, i.e., conventional hybrid mode) fuel economy, not in the displacement of gasoline with electricity in CD (charge-depleting, i.e., electric-power) mode."

The second, a UC Berkely study claims plug-in hybrid value has up to now been undervalued. The true value of plug-in hybrids is defined by their ability to provide fuel choice to consumers, or "properly accounting for the uncertain path of future fuel prices and for the PHEV driver’s ability to respond to these prices by choosing the day’s fuel can raise the battery price at which PHEVs may pay for themselves".

Finish - Plug-in tax credits: The wrong path to energy independence

Higher insurance for Toyota hybrid drivers?

One of the most unsafe vehicles on the road?

If Toyota doesn't pay State Farm for unintended acceleration claims, all Toyota drivers could be hit with higher insurance premiums according to Straightline.

Is this fair? Can State Farm even prove unintended acceleration?

Likewise, Forbes has released its Worst Cars Made Cars on the Road list, yet it doesn't include one Toyota vehicle, although it does indirectly include one hybrid. Using Consumer Reports and JD Power data, Forbes determined that the Cadillac Escalade was one of the worst-made vehicles on the road, and the Escalade also comes in a hybrid version.

Moreover, according to decades of data, Toyota has been safer and more reliable than most other automotive brands.

Obviously, State Farm has a right to seek compensation, but is it fair to punish consumers that are driving vehicles that have saved State Farm money for decades compared to the competition?

Prius continues to dominate Japanese auto sales

More than 35,000 sold in March

Toyota sold almost 3 times as many Prius hybrids in Japan as compared to the US in March. With a whopping 35,546 units sold last month in its home market, the Prius topped Japanese sale's charts for the 11th month in a row, largely thanks to government incentives.

Just another example of the importance of government involvement in the development of battery-powered vehicles?

A battery-powered chance for the Big 3

Detroit's best selling hybrid

Last year, Toyota sold hundreds of thousands of hybrid cars, and since the launch of the Prius, Toyota has sold millions of hybrids.

Ford, the leading American hybrid manufacturer, has only sold about 125,000 hybrids in total since the launch of its first hybrid.

Fortunately, Toyota uses NiMH batteries in its hybrids, rather than the lithium-ion batteries that will power the future of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Thus, it seems the Big 3 have a chance to catch up to Toyota's battery-powered lead.

Yet, the Big 3 - and America - seem woefully unprepared.

If the battery is the key to plug-in vehicle viability and profits, then the Big 3 could be in trouble. Experts claim that some 70 percent of battery-powered value is found in lithium cell production, something that is practically non-existent in the US, particularly in terms of the auto. Moreover, companies like Toyota have already secured massive amounts of lithium for cell and battery production, production that Toyota will own a share of from the ground up, literally.

Now comes word that Japan is going to offer Bolivia a huge package of economic aid in exchange for lithium and rare metals.

Considering the massive investments the government has already made in the Big 3, coupled with analysis that suggests the lithium battery wars could be won within the next 5 to 10 years, is it time for an even bigger government role in the US auto industry?

Optima: Cheapest hybrid sedan yet?

Kia's killer hybrids?

If all goes as expected, the Hyundai Sonata hybrid should be the most cost-effective hybrid sedan available when it goes on sale later this year, but that reign probably won't last long.

Next year, Hyundai will also roll out the Kia Optima hybrid, which we assume will use the same hybrid drive as the Sonata hybrid. However, based on current Optima and Sonata pricing, that should make the Otpima hybrid even cheaper and more cost-effective than the Sonata hybrid.

Up next for Hyundai, a cheaper, more cost-effective Toyota Prius competitor?

Hybrids: Reasons not to listen to Forbes

It won't create energy independence?

Yesterday, Forbes ran Reasons not to buy a hybrid, yet Forbes couldn't offer one compelling reason not to buy a hybrid, assuming energy independence was their primary goal, as stated in their subtitle.

Hybrid vehicles, even the plug-in kind, are simply inefficient because they have two powertrains according to Forbes.

Who cares? Success is about one thing and one thing only, cost-effectiveness. According to Toyota, sometime after 2020 the price difference between hybrids and non-hybrids will be a minor fraction of what is today, and quickly recovered via gains in fuel economy, especially if gas prices continue to rise in the next decade.

Even if true, they still can't lead to energy independence Forbes claims.

Why not? A fleet of natural gas and/or biofueled hybrids and plug-in hybrids could EASILY lead to the end of foreign oil dependence. Likewise, such development would more quickly advance battery technology. Moreover, as battery technology evolves, hybrids and plug-ins could be upgraded to even more efficient batteries, negating the legacy effects caused by conventional vehicles upon energy dependence.

Instead, the Forbe's plan to energy independence is better highway fuel economy, smaller cars and diesel fuel. Apparently, that's the cheapest way to burn through the rest of the world's oil, which naturally ends our foreign oil dependence of course.

Recall can't slow Toyota Prius sales

What recall?

US Toyota Prius sales jumped 27 percent in March compared to last year, as Toyota sold 11,786 units.

Overall, Toyota sold 16,714 hybrid vehicles in March.

I guess that pretty much sums up the lack of Prius sale's incentives since the recalls.

Would VMT hurt hybrid sales?

Killing the gas tax

In 2008 there was a $140 billion budget shortfall in highway funding that helped crunch many state budgets, and the problem is only expected to worsen as new CAFE requirements take effect.

Thus, many states and the Feds are considering a move away from a gas tax to a Vehicles Miles Traveled tax.

Since a good chunk of the price of gasoline goes to taxes, hybrid vehicles and plug-ins can avoid a large percent of this tax compared to other vehicles. However, a VMT tax would take away this advantage.

Would a VMT tax hurt hybrid and plug-in sales?

Luxury: The Ford hybrid advantage?

A best buy in its class?

The Ford Fusion hybrid is one of my favorite hybrid cars, and what's not to like, except the price of course.

Sure the Fusion hybrid offers better fuel economy than the Toyota Camry hybrid, but at a cost, and it's not as if the Camry hybrid has been a huge seller. Moreover, while the EPA rates the Fusion hybrid better than the Camry hybrid on fuel economy, Consumer Reports has found little difference in its tests, and that makes the Fusion hybrid's higher price even less attractive compared to the competition.

The Lincoln MKZ hybrid, on the other hand, appears primed to change this pricing disadvantage. The MKZ will offer the same stellar EPA numbers as the Fusion hybrid, making the MKZ more fuel efficient than Toyota's Lexus HS 250h, at least on paper. However, unlike the Fusion hybrid - and even if only as fuel efficient as the competition in the real world - the MKZ hybrid will be cheaper than the competition.

Sure, that's not much to hang your hybrid hat upon, but it's another baby step towards Ford's bullish hybrid forecasts.

Hyundai Sonata hybrid fuel economy revealed

But what about the price?

The new Hyundai Sonata hybrid will offer the same .25 drag co-efficient as the Toyota Prius, which will probably make the Sonata hybrid the most highway fuel efficient hybrid sedan on the market. While the EPA has not provided official fuel economy estimates, Hyundai claims the Sonata hybrid will achieve 37 mpg city and 39 mpg highway.

With its 169-horsepower 2.4-liter four-cylinder engine mated to a six-speed automatic transmission and a 40.2-hp electric motor, the Sonata hybrid will offer a total output 209 hp.

Of course the real story regarding the Sonata hybrid is its lithium-polymer battery technology, making the Sonata hybrid the first full hybrid to use lithium instead of NiMH technology.

Unfortunately, the cost of the Sonata hybrid has not yet been revealed. Nonetheless, based on the conventional Sonata's cheaper costs, many are expecting the Sonata hybrid to be cheaper than both the Toyota Camry hybrid and the Ford Fusion hybrid when it goes on sale later this year.

Suzuki Kizashi hybrid on hold

Missing an engine

Suzuki is still going to develop a Kizashi hybrid, but not until a new engine supplier can be found. Originally, GM was to be the supplier, but MotorTrend speculates that competition in certain markets pushed GM out of the partnership.

Nonetheless, a deal between Suzuki and VW appears imminent.

40 mpg and it's not a hybrid?

A Cruze to better fuel economy

The Toyota Prius is rated at 48 mpg highway by the EPA, the Honda Insight 43 mpg.

According to GM, the Chevy Cruze should achieve about 40 mpg highway, prompting CNN's Peter Valdes-Dapena yesterday to claim, "The automaker's new Chevrolet Cruze ECO will get very high gas --mileage without relying on any hybrid technology."

And what about the Cruze's city fuel economy? That is largely the point of hybrid technology, right?

City fuel economy for the Prius is 51 mpg, and 40 mpg for the Insight. Yet, GM isn't even releasing its estimates for the Cruze's city fuel economy. I wonder why? Might it be that when overall fuel economy is compared, the Cruze simply won't compare to hybrid vehicles? Won't the Cruze be lucky to achieve even 30 mpg in the city?

The Cruze is a nice car, and it might be a great deal for highway commuters concerned with fuel economy, but if priced similarly to the Insight or the Prius, those concerned with fuel economy will do much better with a hybrid.

Toyota on track to produce 1 million hybrids next year

1 of 10 upcoming new hybrids?

Toyota is increasing its battery production as it increases its share in Panasonic EV Energy Co. from 60 percent to more than 80 percent. As a result Toyota will manufacture enough NiMH batteries next year to produce 1.1 million hybrids.

Within the next few years Toyota is preparing to launch as many as 10 new hybrid vehicles as the automaker seeks to become 30 percent hybrid by 2020.

Lincoln MKZ hybrid next for Ford?

Ford's next hybrid

It's all just a rumor right now, but it seems highly probable that Ford will debut the Lincoln MKZ hybrid at the upcoming NY Auto Show. However, considering that the MKZ is built on the same platform as the Ford Fusion hybrid, such a rumor isn't that hard to believe.

Japan - 50 percent hybrid and EV by 2020

Japan set to go hybrid crazy?

Bloomberg is reporting that Japan's Office of Ministry is considering goals to make hybrid cars and plug-in vehicles 50 percent of new car sales by 2020 and 70 percent by 2030.

Sounds like a great way to ensure that Japanese automakers maintain their hybrid leadership on the way to plug-in domination.

Could racing take hybrids to the next level?

A car even for gear heads?

Yesterday, a Porsche GT3 R hybrid took 6th place in the 24 Hours of Nurburgring's ADAC Westfalenfahrt qualifying event. According to InsideLine, of the 160 cars participating, the Porsche hybrid was one of two stand out entries.

Porsche hybrids? Whatever, right? Even if every Porsche were a hybrid little benefit to the world would be gained.

On the other hand, perhaps proving the capabilities of hybrid technology on the race track can make hybrid vehicles more appealing to a wider range of consumers?

Mazda Prius coming soon

The Mazda Tribute hybrid

Back in July it was reported that by 2013, Mazda would begin licensing Toyota hybrid technology as part of its plan to sell 100,000 hybrid cars per year. Today, Mazda has confirmed that it will begin using the same hybrid technology in the Toyota Prius coupled with its next generation Sky engine to develop a new hybrid car that will go on sale in 2013.

Hyundai Sonata hybrid heading to NY Auto Show

More than just a powertrain this time

Hyundai will show off the Sonata hybrid next week at the NY Auto Show.

In recent months Hyundai has claimed that its hybrid cars will offer "practical solutions" for consumers. Can't wait to find out just how practical the Sonata hybrid will be compared to the Ford Fusion and Toyota Camry hybrids.

$8.00 gas - The key to mass plug-in adoption?

VW's Up electric car

Most Americans are not willing to pay much extra for improved fuel economy, especially when gas prices are below $3.00 per gallon. Even at $4.00 or $5.00, most Americans would rather downsize a bit than convert to hybrids. Despite the long term savings on gasoline, most Americans simply avoid hybrid cars because of the extra upfront costs.

And this dilemma could be worse for plug-in hybrids and EVs.

"It's going to be very difficult, unless you have $8-a-gallon gasoline, for any normal consumer to look at a Volt or a Nissan Leaf," John O'Dell, the senior editor of Edmunds' Green Car Advisor, recently told Forbes.

Yet, ironically, some studies have suggested that once gas starts rising far above $5.00 a gallon, Americans start thinking a little less about fuel efficiency, and a little more about paying as little as possible for a new vehicle to offset the increased costs of energy - which affect more than just transportation. So, if gas prices rise too high, interest in plug-ins could actually be stymied rather than increased.

Inevitably, despite the long term value of hybrids and EVs, most Americans are simply not willing to pay more up front to save more in the long term. Are gas prices the only thing that can change this mentality?

When will a plug-in vehicle outsell the Toyota Prius?

Will the plug-in Prius ever outsell the conventional Prius?

Why did GM kill the Cadillac Converj, a plug-in based upon the same Voltecs hybrid drive as the upcoming Chevy Volt? Wouldn't making as many range-extended EVs across as many models as possible help bring down costs quicker?

"Sure, each Cadillac Converj would not lose as much money as each Chevy Volt," reports MotorTrend's Todd Lassa. "But it still would lose money, and the best way to limit losses from new technology is to limit volume. "This Cadillac doesn't lose as much money as this Chevy" isn't a business case. Volt is designed to be a "volume" model, eventually produced in the tens of thousands, but it will be years before we see that."

Years before we see tens of thousands of Volts produced per year? The Toyota Prius is already selling in the hundreds of thousands, so the Volt seems at least a decade away from topping the Prius. Then again, the Volt? Unfortunately, we've known about GM's limited production numbers for some time, so I doubt the Volt will be the first plug-in to contend with the Prius.

Besides, the Nissan Leaf has been the real plug-in story these days........

Finish: When will a plug-in vehicle outsell the Toyota Prius?

Forbes: Best cars for highway commuting

Fusion hybrid one of 3 hybrids on Forbes list

Three hybrid cars made the Forbes list of best autos for highway commuting. The Ford Fusion hybrid, the Toyota Camry hybrid and the Honda Civic hybrid were picked for their high Consumer Report's rankings, highway fuel efficiency, legroom and headroom.

Lexus CT hybrid confirmed for next year

The CT 200h hybrid

Yesterday, Lexus announced that the CT 200h hybrid will be available for sale in the US next year.

Too bad Toyota's best looking hybrid to date will be too expensive for most hybrid consumers.

Wait a few months to buy a Toyota hybrid

Far fewer buyers interested in Toyota vehicles

Based on auto sales figures today, it would seem that Toyota has weathered its recall woes very well. New research, however, warns that Toyota's sales are a result of the "pull-ahead affect". Essentially, incentives brought would-be Toyota shoppers to market a bit sooner.

Moving forward, Toyota will need new consumers, and that probably won't be easy without even more incentives. Brand consideration for Toyota has dropped from 75 percent in January to 49 percent in February - about the same as domestics.

Finish: Wait a few months to buy a Toyota hybrid

Honda CR-Z: Honda's best selling hybrid

8000 already ordered

In just 17 days 8,000 Honda CR-Z hybrids have been ordered in Japan. Overall, Honda had hoped to sell 12,000 CR-Z hybrids this year in Japan.

While this sale's pace is probably not sustainable, it does demonstrate there is consumer interest in sporty hybrids, and that will probably mean a sooner than expected Toyota counter-punch in this market.

Lithium-powered Honda hybrids on the way

Can lithium challenge the Prius?

In February, Toyota sold more than 27,000 Prius hybrids worldwide. Honda sold 3,517 Insight hybrids.

To help shrink this gap in sales, Honda plans to begin using lithium-ion batteries in its hybrid cars within 2 or 3 years, according to Bloomberg, and the Civic hybrid will probably be the first lithium hybrid.

JD Power: Prius most dependable compact

Tops according to JD Power and Consumer Reports

Here we go again. Numerous lawyers around the country have called Toyota vehicles unsafe and unreliable. Yet, again, however, real world data doesn't match these assertions.

Not long ago, despite the recalls, Consumer Reports data again showed that Toyota is still one of the most reliable brands, and both the Prius and Camry hybrid were Top Ten Best Values.

Today, JD Power has released its latest reliability findings and the Prius is the most dependable compact car. While Toyota did drop 3 spots in dependability to number 5, Lexus was third and Toyota still topped more segments than any other automaker.

2012: A key year in the lithium wars

Ready for conversion

By as early as 2014, according to recent analysis, the winners of the automotive battery industry might have already won and revenues will rule.

Within the next few years a number of lithium-powered hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs will hit the road. Initially, most will be low-volume vehicles. Consequently, sales of NiMH hybrids will continue to dominate for some time, unless of course Toyota converts the Prius into a lithium hybrid.

Considering the importance of lithium, how long can Toyota wait before committing to lithium for its flag ship Toyota Prius? Even if Toyota's lithium-powered plug-in Prius tops plug-in sales by 2014, that might not be enough for industry-leading revenues. Of course, Toyota's recent lithium investments and battery partnerships hint that such complacency is unlikely.

Moreover, Ford has started to sound a lot like Toyota on hybrid vehicles. By 2018 it's possible that Ford could actually begin to challenge Toyota's hybrid sale's crown, and Ford's lithium commitment appears set to begin in 2012, with lithium-powered conventional hybrids the key.

When the plug-in Prius goes on sale in late 2011, I expect lithium-powered conventional Prius hybrids won't be far behind. If not, maybe Toyota will need some kaizen lessons from Ford.

Toyotagate: Hybrid cars not yet a casuality

Still the world's most important vehicle

Despite owning Toyota vehicles, I'm no huge Toyota fan. I love their hybrid cars, but I hate their dealerships. Of course, since I have a hybrid bias, Toyota is my favorite automaker, despite their crappy dealerships.

Take Toyota out of the hybrid game, and there is no game. At best you're left with a pep rally that might lead to a game. Moreover, if Toyota survives the recall scandal, their hybrid cars, and/or possibly gas prices, will put far more pressure on the Big 3 to increase their fuel economy than any government regulations.

Fortunately, despite Toyota's recalls, a new hybrid plant in Japan is set to open to help offset demand. And that's a good sign that Toyota will stay on track to be 30 percent hybrid by 2020 - far and away the industry's most aggressive battery-powered plans.

Edmunds slows down an out of control Prius, easily

How out of control is an out of control Prius?

Edmunds.com has put together a video of the different ways to slow down an "out of control" Toyota Prius. Ironically, Edmunds finds that an out of control Prius really isn't that out of control.

Check out the video

Lutz - More GM hybrids on the way

The Sierra hybrid

Due to consumer demand, GM has no intention of abandoning its production of large trucks and SUVs, however, a greater portion of them will be hybrid vehicles Bob Lutz told the AP.

However, the hybrid move isn't necessarily some new vision coming out of GM. Rather GM is making the move to meet new CAFE requirements.

Trucks and the irrelevance of hybrid and electric cars

The most important vehicle in America?

In February, Ford sold almost 33,000 Ford F Series trucks, making it the top selling vehicle in America, by far. Of the top 3 selling vehicles, 2 were trucks. Inevitably, day after day, month after month, year after year, and decade after decade, large trucks dominate the top of US auto sales.

Nonetheless, while the bread and butter of the Big 3, the 17 mpg all-American truck is killing America.

Fortunately, a few years ago, GM made a pretty smart move and added hybrid technology to its trucks. Unfortunately, despite big increases in fuel economy, especially in city traffic (although how many really need a truck in city driving?), sales for hybrid trucks, such as the Chevy Silverado hybrid, have been almost non-existent because of the significant upfront costs.

Of course, sales for the Chevy Volt range extended electric car will be much better than GM's hybrid trucks. Still, it might take more than a decade for the Volt to achieve even a third of the sales the F Series is currently achieving and possibly far longer.

While the development of small hybrid and electric cars is critical, isn't it time to put more energy into the real problem?

2012: The Fordaizening of hybrid cars

Is it real this time?

Several years ago I had such hopes for Ford, particularly its couple hundred thousand hybrid cars per year by 2010 plans, including unique and new vehicles, such as the Reflex hybrid pictured here.

Instead, Ford sold 30,000 hybrids last year. Toyota sold 500,000.

Fortunately, that Ford is gone. Yesterday's Ford died when it went into bankruptcy, along with the rest of the Big 3.

Finish: 2012 - The Fordaizening of hybrid cars

America loaded with hybrid-loving rare earth metals

Time to start mining

Within a decade, American companies could run out of rare earth metals - essential materials for hybrid cars, wind turbines, computers, etc. - if China follows through on plans to stop rare earth exports according to experts.

Yet, one of the biggest rare earth metal deposits probably exists right here in America, but no one is mining these metals seriously because of the upfront costs needed to develop a separation plant to process these metals. According to experts, such a plant would cost about $1 billion dollars and require about 8 years to implement.

Even worse, since China is keeping the price of rare earths artificially low, competition is difficult to justify without direct government help.

Accenture: Fuel economy not enough to mainstream hybrids and EVs

60 percent want hybrids to be superior in every way

According to a new Accenture Study taken in the US, Canada, Germany, France and Italy, 6 out 10 consumers will only buy a hybrid when it is "superior to gasoline-only models in every way." Likewise, just 36 percent of consumers cited higher gas prices as a reason to buy a hybrid or electric car.

Unfortunately, according to the survey, "those that have driven a hybrid or electric vehicle rate fuel efficiency as being very good to excellent, but most rate the ride, performance, style and maintenance as good at best."

Thus, Accenture concludes that automakers will need to "achieve competitive differentiation, " such as "distinctive capabilities, particularly around safety, environmental protection and entertainment” to achieve mainstream success with hybrid and electric vehicles.

On a side note, of the 42 percent that are willing to buy a hybrid or EV in the next few years, 80 percent are interested in hybrid cars rather than electric vehicles.

VW Touareg hybrid a "home run"?

But what about the price?

The Volkswagen Touareg hybrid, VW's first hybrid vehicle, is a "home run" and "its technology a considerable advancement for hybrids in general" according to MotorTrend. But why?

Is it the diesel hybrid technology that most impresses MT? The 375 horsepower or the 425 feet of torque? Maybe it's the 7700 pounds of towing capability?

MT never defines exactly what makes this hybrid such an "advancement". And, unfortunately, we've heard such sentiment from MT before regarding GM and Chrysler's dual mode hybrids, for instance. However, the price of dual mode hybrids has simply been too expensive, too cos-ineffective for most consumers.

The VW Touareg might be a technological home run, but if it isn't cost-effective, then it'll only be a single or double, at best, in the real world.

Luxury hybrids gone crazy

Well, I guess it's green

Dang, has the selection of hybrid cars increased significantly in just the last few days. Porsche, Maserati, Ferrari have all confirmed plans to produce new hybrid vehicles.

Of course, those were just some of the top end hybrids, Audi, Mercedes, BMW and Infinity, for instance, also announced new hybrids during the course of the Geneva Motor Show.

But do any of these hybrids really mean anything in terms of advancing hybrid technology to the masses?

Sure, rich people can keep their rich toys and sleep soundly at night knowing that they have reduced their carbon footprint a bit. Unfortunately, however, even if you combine all these hybrids and their sale's potential, they still don't offer any scale for bringing hybrid vehicle costs down for the rest of us.

$7.00 gas only way to curb global warming emissions?

Harvard's eye-popping study

To reach President Obama's global warming emission's cuts, according to a new Harvard study, gas prices will have to reach $7.00 per gallon.

Sadly, tax credits for hybrid cars and EVs were not seen as an effective path towards reducing emissions, as such tax credits can actually make people drive more according to the soon-to-be-released study.

However, if actions are not taken, vehicle miles traveled, and therefore emissions, are expected to increase 30 percent between now and 2030.

The Geneva hybrid vehicle show, kind of

But is it all just hype?

Auto shows and hybrid cars. It's the norm, right?

So far the Geneva Auto Show has seemed a bit like a hybrid festival, particularly with the debuts of Porsche and Ferrari hybrids sucking up a lot of press.

But what do these hybrids really mean? Not much.

Probably the most important debut thus far has been Toyota's Auris hybrid, since it's actually production ready, but if it isn't much cheaper than the Prius, can the Auris hybrid really conquest many more hybrid buyers?

Likewise, Hyundai's diesel hybrid i flow concept certainly makes Hyundai's hybrid plans look more compelling. Still, hybrids are already too expensive for most buyers, can diesel hybrids really change that, even in diesel-loving Europe?

None of that means the Geneva Auto Show is a hybrid disappointment, but one of these years a legitimate show-stopper would be nice. I'll keep my fingers crossed for now.

Daimler to help Build Your Dreams

Chinese manufactured hybrids coming soon?

Ready for Chinese made vehicles? Of course you're not, but would a $15,000 Prius-like hybrid, or a $25,000 Chevy Volt-like plug-in - branded by Mercedes Benz - change your mind?

Perhaps not, but I'd bet such vehicles could pique the attention of many Americans, and such hybrids and plug-in vehicles are now closer to reality thanks to a new partnership between Daimler and BYD.

BYD's battery experience, location to critical supplies and availability of cheap labor, coupled with Daimler's experience, might not ever mean much outside of China, but the potential of such a venture cannot be denied, or ignored.

Chinese-made battery packs for American cars are inevitable, and Chinese made hybrid cars won't be far behind.

Ford 25 percent hybrid and EV by 2020

Just the beginning

By 2020 Ford believes that 10 - 25 percent of its global fleet will be hybrid and plug-ins, with hybrid cars making up the majority of sales. To highlight this new potential, Ford will use the Geneva Motor show to roll out two new hybrids, a plug-in hybrid and two EVs, reports the DetroitNews.

Unfortunately, neither of these new hybrid vehicles will hit the market until 2012, which seems to hint that Ford will use lithium-ion batteries in these new hybrids - something Ford has alluded to in the past.

Regardless, pretty aggressive numbers based on Ford's hybrid history, and that's definitely good news.

Auris hybrid more efficient than Prius. Cheaper?

Is it just about styling?

When the new Toyota Auris hybrid goes on sale in Europe, it will be even more efficient than the Toyota Prius. The third generation Prius rates at 72.4 mpg on the European cycle, while the new Auris hybrid achieves between 70.6 mpg - 74.3 mpg, dependent upon options according to MotorTrend. Thus, at best, the difference in fuel economy between these two Toyota hybrid cars is not staggering, especially once downsized by the US's EPA cycle.

So, what's the point of the Auris? European styling? More cost-effective fuel efficiency? A combination of both? I guess we'll find out soon.

Audi's Mini hybrid revealed

Watch out BMW

The Audi A1 stormed into Geneva and showcased how Audi might be in the process of redefining itself as an automaker by accepting BMW's Mini Cooper success. Fortunately, the A1 is about more than just small car luxury, as the A1 will also be offered in a hybrid version.

Just another piece of the 3 percent hybrid plan for VW.

VW: 3 percent hybrid and EV by 2018

Nice improvement, but.......

Starting in 2012, VW will launch a number of new hybrid cars and electric vehicles, including the UP concept, as well as hybrid and electric versions of the Golf and Jetta, in addition to hybrid versions of the Passat and Touareg. Combined, the vehicles should achieve 3 percent of VW's total share of vehicles by 2018 according to current plans.

"The goal is to become the market leader in E-mobility by the year 2018. We want to attain an electric vehicle market share of three percent within our entire range of products. We will take the hybrid out of its niche status with our high-volume models. In the future, the heart of the brand will also beat with electricity," noted Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen AG.

While that's a very nice improvement, it's hard to call that leadership. Toyota already sits above 3 percent hybrid share, and by 2020 Toyota hopes to be at 20 to 30 percent hybrid share, in addition to offering its own plug-in hybrid and EV solutions.

Of course, with all the recall scandals dogging Toyota, maybe 3 percent will be enough to be the battery-powered leader!? Either that, or it will be a blood path for the #2 EV-share player.

Recalled Toyota's 19 times safer than walking

A new Congressional logo?

I am not a Toyota apologist. Yes, I own and drive a Toyota hybrid, but that's only because they've provided the best choice in hybrid cars when I've hybrid shopped. Nevertheless, I'd dump Toyota as my brand of choice in a heartbeat if I found a more cost-effective hybrid that fulfilled my needs.

Ultimately, the only thing I really like about Toyota are their efforts into hybrid cars. As I stated earlier today, last year Toyota sold about a 1/2 million hybrid cars. Ford, the leading US manufacturer of hybrids, sold about 30,000 hybrids. That's what I like about Toyota. And that's partially while I've defended Toyota during this recall 'scandal'. Inevitably, a healthy Toyota puts pressure on US automakers to develop more fuel efficient vehicles.

Moreover, I've defended Toyota because Congress simply isn't making much sense. And, when someone exerts a lot of effort advancing illogical endeavors, especially on my dime, I take offense. Is Congress just illogical, inept? Is this related to the bailout? I don't know, but something stinks.

For instance, anyone looking at safety, crash and death statistics in the automotive sector - which I assume Congress has done - will find that the Toyotagate recall scandal isn't much of an issue, at least if the actual numbers of crashes and deaths matter. In fact, according to death statistics, it is 19 times safer to drive a recalled Toyota than it is to walk.

Besides, if Congress really wanted to save lives in the automotive sector, they'd simply outlaw SUVs. In one swift move 10,000+ lives per year would be saved, and we could probably stop importing OPEC oil.

Then again, in light of these scandalous walking statistics, I think Congress should form a panel on the benefits of outlawing walking.