Chevy Volt: Greatest auto marketing coup ever?

Pre production Volt one week ahead of schedule

I'm a big fan of the Chevy Volt. I've been talking about it for more than 2 years. Unfortunately, I'll be talking about if for more than another year before GM actually starts selling this innovative plug-in vehicle.

Anyway, today GM announced that it had started production on pre-production Volts, slightly ahead of schedule. Yet, what does this really mean?

Despite the long term potential of the Chevy Volt, the Volt offers GM very little in the next decade, other than positive press. In fact, it will almost certainly be at least a decade before GM is even producing 100,000 Volts per year. In the short term, Volt sales are meaningless. It's all about marketing.

Certainly, in another decade or so, the Volt could become GM's most important vehicle, or at least the first output of its most important platform. Unfortunately, however, it is far too early to tell. Every automaker has various plug-in plans, but the winners are many years away from being determined. Yet, no other plug-in vehicle receives near the attention of the Volt.

Regardless, there is no denying the marketing power of the Volt. Hence, is the Volt the greatest marketing coup ever in the automotive world?

2012: GM's hybrid offensive begins?

Was the dual mode Vue hybrid a contender?

GM has been talking about a big increase in it's hybrid vehicle portfolio for a number of years now. Today, GM reiterated those plans of 14 new hybrid vehicles by 2012.

Since that statement, MotorTrend has tried to guess GM's future hybrid line up. Sadly, outside of the Chevy Volt, not much looks that impressive. Hopefully, 14 different models, some rebadged, will collectively help GM move some hybrids and provide some scalability for these technologies.

Ultimately, however, there are still some key questions. First, can an updated BAS System with lithium really make GM's mild hybrids that much more compelling? Second, will the dual mode hybrid powertrain ever be cost-effective, especially in smaller SUVs and crossovers that might not need all the functionality that the dual mode hybrid powertrain provides?

Regardless, I'd prefer just one or two new hybrid models, each capable of selling at least 50,000 units per year, instead of 7 more that each sell 10,000 units, or less, per year. Thus, I'm hoping, possibly beyond hope, that GM has at least one hybrid wild card up its sleeve.

2015: 77,000 Volts per year to change GM's image

Mostly a marketing tool for the next decade

I don't hate GM. Still, now that US taxpayers are into GM for many tens of billions of dollars, it's hard not to look at GM in anything other than a critical light. And, unfortunately, it's very easy to find criticism with GM.

Last week a JD Power supplier survey found that of the top 10 automakers, GM was considered to be the least innovative. Then, today a UM study claimed that GM is not prepared for a significant move towards fuel efficiency.

So, what does GM have for the future? Well, it has the Chevy Volt, a very compelling vehicle, but a vehicle that GM will only be producing 77,000 units of per year by 2015. How can that really help GM become more fuel efficient and competitive?

It's all about marketing. Aside from the CAFE credits that the Volt will provide for GM's guzzlers, the real purpose of the Volt for the next decade is about image, not profitability. The Volt is an "image-changer" that will help change GM's image as an automaker lacking innovation into an innovator, without actually selling lots of innovative vehicles, noted an IBD article this weekend.

Hopefully, one day GM's auto business will be as innovative as its marketing.

GM preparing for high oil prices

More Volts coming?

Once the US breaks out of recession many, including GM, believe that oil prices are going to rise. Consequently, GM is preparing for oil prices over $100 per barrel. That means an increased focus on "electric cars and biofuels" according to the AFP.

Unfortunately, there aren't many more details about GM's future plans. Sadly, however, GM has been spinning the biofuel tale for years now, with few positive results. Today, GM's flex fuel vehicles are more about CAFE credits than fighting oil prices.

In terms of electric cars, we know about the Chevy Volt. So does this mean more Volts, or is GM going to broaden it's battery-powered portfolio? Hopefully, new details will be available soon.

Innovation: Is GM capable of quality hybrids?

Can the Volt buck the trend?

Many times I've read that GM is going to set the new standard of hybrid and electric vehicles with the Chevy Volt. It will be the most innovative technology on the road many have claimed.

While I find the Volt to be revolutionary, at least in concept, I've long worried that it won't make financial sense for most consumers, especially in the short-to-midterm. Moreover, I've never felt the Volt was an excuse not to produce more hybrid cars like today's Toyota Prius.

Yet, the real question might be, is GM capable of such revolutionary innovation?

According to a new JD Power supplier survey, GM is considered the least innovative of the top 10 automakers.

1,000,000 hybrid cars sold per year, but none American

Will American automakers ever offer a $20,000 Prius-contender?

Within about the next year Toyota and Honda believe they will, combined, begin selling 1,000,000 hybrid cars per year. American automakers on the other hand, combined, won't even sell 100,000 hybrids.

Certainly, American automakers have future products intended to leapfrog the Toyota Prius, but how realistic are those plans?

For instance, Toyota also has plans for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Can a vehicle like the Chevy Volt steal all of Toyota's green market share? I mean honestly, GM is still many years away from producing 100,000 Volts per year. Doesn't GM need much, much more than the Volt?

Perhaps gas prices will decline, or at least stagnate for a number of years. If not, however, is there any real reason to believe that US automakers are anywhere close to being correctly positioned for the future?

Is the lithium vehicle revolution more hype than reality?

A lithium battery pack from Hymotion

The other day one of GM's top Volt engineers, Frank Weber, claimed that by the second generation of the Chevy Volt, it was possible that battery costs could be halved. While I found that to be great news, I wondered how one could know such a thing if mass production of such batteries hadn't yet been demonstrated?

Then today I read a story about how GM's Global Battery Systems Engineering Group Manager, Joe LoGrasso, told the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference that "long-term commercial success [of lithium] may depend on the convergence of cell formats." Moreover, he claimed such convergence faced lots of obstacles and might not even be possible.

But, without such convergence, lithium success might not be possible?

These days, automakers have become marketing machines. Once Bob Lutz claimed that GM could have developed and produced a Toyota Prius contender with just a fraction of one year's marketing budget. Thus, automakers have a lot of money to spin hype and hope into publicly perceived reality.

One way or another advanced battery technology will make its way into the automobile, but is the lithium battery vehicle far more hype than reality today, and for the short to mid-term? Have automakers over-hyped the reality of current automotive technology, again?

Does the Volt really resonate in America?

More hype than reality?

GM is holding a technology briefing today that will include updates on GM's new, fully operational battery lab as well as more confirmation about a new fleet of pre-production Chevy Volts. None of this news, however, is really that new if you've been following the Volt story.

In a nutshell, however, the Chevy Volt is on track, even ahead of schedule. More important, GM believes it can significantly reduce costs, especially regarding the battery, by just the second generation. Nonetheless, the Volt will still cost a good bit more than both a conventional vehicle, as well as a conventional hybrid vehicle like the Toyota Prius.

So, can the Volt really be America's car?

Numerous studies indicate that most Americans are very concerned about foreign oil dependency, and they believe that hybrid cars are a strategically important part of ending this dependency. Yet, the majority of these Americans are not willing to pay extra for these strategically important vehicles.

Can a potentially revolutionary American hybrid, or range extended electric vehicle, change this complacent attitude? Or, are significantly higher gas prices the Volt's only chance of serious market penetration?

EV cost check: $47,000 for an i MiEv?

It is clean and green though

During media days at the LA Auto show I spent a good bit of time sitting in the i MiEV, imaging myself as a driver and a passenger. Opening and shutting doors. Just really trying to get a feel for the vehicle. Ultimately, I assumed the reason for this car feeling so small and, I hate to say it, but cheap, was to help make this car more affordable.

Yet, today Mitsubishi has announced that the i MiEV is going on sale this year in Japan for $47,500. Isn't that wildly expensive for such a vehicle with only 100 mile range?

Moreover, it really makes me wonder how much the Chevy Volt is really going to cost at first. Somehow I think GM is banking on some funny accounting in order to sell the Volt at $40,000.

The new GM will be lean, but will it be green?

Volt-style marketing the future of GM

When GM debuted the Chevy Volt a few years ago, Bob Lutz told the automotive world that GM would handle Volt development in a new way. Volt progress, or problems, would be shared in an open and transparent manner.

Some have called this openness a marketing gimmick designed to create a Toyota Prius-like green halo around GM, without actually having to sell the vehicle. Like it or not, however, this openness is no longer going to be restricted to the Volt. Instead, this openness will be the driver of all GM products and plans according to CEO Fritz Henderson.

The new GM, according to Henderson, will be dedicated "to building on only the very best of our recent progress in fuel efficiency, world-class quality, green technology development and outstanding design." Moreover, it will begin by "engaging with you, our customers and critics, our partners and champions, who are interested in our progress."

This morning even President Obama claimed the new GM "will be full of promise".

Still, while GM should emerge from bankruptcy much leaner, will it really emerge much greener? Without doubt, green technologies are the auto industry's main buzzwords, but can GM truly derive profit from these green technologies? For instance, if the Volt isn't going to be profitable for at least another decade, what other green technologies will bring out the "promise" of the new GM?

Hopefully, if GM lives up to its new promise of openness, we'll soon learn just how GM plans to turn green technologies into a viable game plan for the future.

$32,500: Is the Chevy Volt a dud or a deal?

Would you buy a $40,000 Volt that includes a $7500 tax credit?

GM's Bob Lutz told David Letterman what most that have followed the Chevy Volt have known for some time - the Volt is going to start at $40,000. Add a $7500 tax credit and that brings the price down to $32,500.

Most polls I've seen indicate this is still too expensive for most consumers. Nonetheless, I believe there will be hordes of potential consumers lining up for the Volt, especially since production will probably be relatively limited for the first few years, minimally. And, of course, the limited tax credit will also inspire early adopters.

Regardless, what happens when tax credits for the Volt expire? Will GM have to sell the Volt at a significant loss until economies of scale eventually, hopefully, enable a natural price reduction?

Finally, are plug-in tax credits the right approach for stimulating plug-in sales? Why not an instant point of sale refund? Can't the government be more consumer friendly?

Don't make fun of the Volt

Let's get real for a second

So, David Letterman crossed Bob Lutz's line. Letterman made fun of the Chevy Volt when Tesla's Elon Musk was on Dave's Show.

Relax, Bob. The Volt is worthy of a few jokes. We've been hearing about the Volt for more than 2 years and it's still almost two years away from putting rubber to the road. Nonetheless, if it lives up to the hype I'm sure you'll be the last one laughing.

Still, why get hot and bothered? What have Musk and Tesla proven?

GM could have a developed a Roadster-like vehicle a decade ago. A DECADE ago. So could have Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, etc. Unfortunately, unless you're goal is an IPO such a vehicle would have helped GM accomplish next to nothing. GM would still be facing bankruptcy, and its EV would still be losing tons of money.

Ultimately, both Tesla's Roadster and the Volt are a good bit of hype. When either vehicle achieves sales of at least 100,000 units, I'll become a believer. Of course, until either starts selling at least 100,000 units per year, both vehicles will continue to be more experiment than reality - and worthy of a joke every now and again!

Traditional hybrids are becoming obsolete?

Already a dead car walking?

Wow. I guess headlines are the only thing that matters these days.

Today, Newsweek has an article Why traditional hybrid cars are becoming obsolete.

Why? The $80, 000 Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid and the $100,000 Tesla Roadster of course. Yet, according to the same article, without higher fuel prices, the gasoline engine might be around much longer than most would like.

Huh? So that's why traditional hybrid cars are going to become obsolete?

OK. Newsweek also cites declining Toyota Prius sales. While true, before the 2010 Prius launches, about 60,000 - 70,000 of these vehicles will already have been presold. In fact, based on early demand, Toyota has already put plans in motion to increase yearly production to 500,000 cars per year.

By 2015, GM - if all goes well - might be producing 100,000 Chevy Volts per year. Similarly, Nissan is hoping to produce 100,000 Cube EVs per year several years from now. Fisker is hoping to eventually produce 15,000 plug-in hybrids per year. In reality, by 2015, there might not be enough EVs produced yearly to replace even today's Prius demand.

Considering that Toyota and Honda are now betting big on hybrids, I guess they'll be next in bankruptcy court?

Time to pull the plug on the Chevy Volt?

It just can't help GM?

If you hate GM, then you probably don't think much of the Chevy Volt. In fact, you might even call it an unrealistic hype machine into which GM has sunk far too much money.

That's the argument the Washington Post makes today, and I have to admit, it's a pretty persuasive argument. For instance, the article points to numerous analyses, including some done by President Obama's auto task force, that indicate the economics simply don't make sense for a vehicle like the Volt. Thus, how can the Volt help GM's bottom line?

For example, even with $4.00 gas, it would still take, minimally, six years for the the Volt to recover its costs compared to today's Toyota Prius. And, that's assuming the Volt will only cost $30,000 after huge government tax credits and subsidies. Even at such a cost, it would still take far longer for many other Volt owners to recover their costs compared to a Prius.

Thus, this Post editorial suggests pulling the plug on the Volt, and I couldn't disagree more.

I have long argued that the Volt should never have been an excuse not to develop a Prius-contender. Perhaps GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrid system can fill this void, but cheap quality hybrids will be a necessity for any automaker in the very near future.

Fortunately, GM's billion dollar investment into the Volt could help produce such cheap hybrid vehicles, aside from the Volt. Because much of GM's Volt investment has been centered around one core technology, lithium-ion batteries, GM could conceivably parlay this knowledge into many different types of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Hence, to call GM's Volt venture a waste that helped lead to bankruptcy and a loss of corporate reputation is pure nonsense.

I've seen GM's battery labs. I've seen GM's virtual design center. These two elements alone could make GM's Volt investment worth the cost, even if the Volt itself is another decade away from any sort of real world, cost-effective impact.

Nonetheless, the Volt cannot save GM in the next decade. However, that does not mean the plug should be pulled on the Volt. Instead, it means GM needs to utilize the massive amount of intelligence gleaned from the Volt and convert it into a more well-rounded and balanced hybrid and electric vehicle portfolio, including the Volt.

If GM can do that, the Volt might just be GM's smartest investment ever. If not, maybe we shouldn't just pull the plug on the Volt, but GM.

Cap-and-trade or gas tax: Are we fooling ourselves?

Are both too offensive to Americans?

Oil is trading around $50 per barrel, yet supplies are building and there are oil tankers full of oil with no where to go. If oil prices were driven purely by the fundamentals, oil would probably be about $20 bucks a barrel. And, until the US economy fully kicks back into gear - something that could take longer than Obama's first term - oil prices probably won't increase significantly.

So, will $7500 tax credits on 60,000 Chevy Volts per year really inspire the American populace into greater fuel efficiency, or will 60,000 Volts simply serve as a tool to balance GM's CAFE requirements, enabling the sale of more gas-guzzlers?

Recently, because of Congressional concern and consumer sentiment, President Obama indicated that cap-and-trade could be put on hold. Likewise, Obama has not been a strong proponent of a gas tax. Still, aren't we fooling ourselves if we believe that real change can be achieved without a significant change in energy prices? Of course, aren't we fools to believe that Americans are ready for such change?

Fortune rips Big 3 and "foolhardy" Volt

The Volt's redesigned debut

A few weeks ago Fortune's Alex Taylor III slammed GM's Chevy Volt calling it "misguided, even foolhardy".

Today, Taylor elaborates on his Volt criticism while wondering when the Big 3 will challenge a vehicle like the Toyota Prius. Moreover, he wonders how financially-strangled Big 3 automakers are going to catch companies like Toyota on advanced technology.

Sure GM has a vehicle like the Volt, but Volt profitability is probably 3 generations away. How will GM make money in the interim? With gas-guzzlers? Without ever directly challenging the Prius?

And, if it takes another 10 years before the Volt is possibly profitable, new Chinese companies, such as BYD, might be too lean and mean - not to mention close to lithium supplies - for GM and the Big 3 to contend.

Is the green auto revolution more hype than reality?

Can Honda sell 100,000 Insights per year?

“In spite of government and advocacy groups touting the benefits of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, Americans seem to have an insatiable feeling that bigger is better,” claims AutoTrader research data according to MSNBC's Dan Carney.

In recent years, automakers have built a lot of PR hype around their green offerings, or at least their future green offerings. For instance, America has been hearing about the Chevy Volt for years now, yet the Volt's sale's debut is almost 2 years from reality. Even then, and for a number of years after, GM will be making 10's of thousands of Volts, not 100's of thousands.

Likewise, many other automakers have plans for a hybrid or two, maybe a few small cars, and a limited production EV. Yet, none of these automakers have stopped building beefed up sports cars and gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. Go to any auto show and most of the crowds are still drawn to the usual, inefficient suspects.

In terms of sales, for instance, Ford has been putting great effort into promoting its fantastic Fusion hybrid, but the automaker is only going to make 25,000 of these great hybrid cars per year. On the other hand, Ford sold over 30,000 F-Series trucks in March alone, despite the fact that Ford truck sales are down more than 40 percent year to date thanks to a recession - not gas prices.

In reality, isn't the green auto revolution still mostly hype?

Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Plain and simple cost effectiveness

Later this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.

So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.

The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.

Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.

FINISH: Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

GM seeks $2.6 billion for Volt, 2 Volt spin-offs

Don't pull the plug on the Volt yet

GM has requested $2.6 billion in low interest loans to help support further development of the Chevy Volt and two new Volt variants. In total, that would bring GM's Energy Department fuel efficient vehicle aid requests to $10.3 billion according to Reuters.

This request is separate from the Obama task force conclusion that the Chevy Volt would not help GM become viable in the short term.

Volt Shock: How do we fight foreign oil dependency in the short term?

How many more oil wars before we're free?

According to Barack Obama's auto task force, GM's Chevy Volt will be too expensive to help GM's viability any time soon. Obviously, if GM is struggling to survive, it can't afford to make too many Volts if it can't make any money off of them.

So, how is the US going to fight foreign oil dependency in the short term?

Recently, Congress enacted tax credits for plug-in hybrids that strongly favor large battery vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt, versus smaller battery plug-in hybrids like a plug-in Prius. Yet, according to the task force, these large battery plug-in vehicles are going to be too expensive to help either GM or America any time soon. Likewise, some studies question whether large battery vehicles are even wise at all.

The point is, doesn't Congress have to do a better job of incentivizing the fight against foreign oil dependency? How many more decades of foreign oil dependency can America (and the world) survive?

Chevy Volt can't save GM

Henderson, Lutz and Wagoner next to the Volt

I'm a big fan of the Chevy Volt. I think it's an important step in the right direction, especially for a company like GM. Still, I've blogged over-and-over that the Volt was not an excuse not to build a direct Toyota Prius-contender.

Ultimately, the lack of small hybrid cars coming out of GM - there are none - has perpetually bothered me. Thus, when a web campaign emerged to 'bailout out GM to save the Volt'. I had to say no (Bailout GM to save the Volt: No).

GM's viability, I've believed, had to be about more than the Volt, especially in the short term, and President Obama's task force agrees.

"While the Volt holds promise, it will likely be too expensive to be commercially successful in the short-term," an Obama task report said. The electric car "is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable."

Taxing: A $50,000 Tesla Model S or a $33,000 Chevy Volt?

Or neither?

In 2011 environmentalists and foreign-energy hawks will have a number of interesting choices available when purchasing their next car. Two of the top picks will, undoubtedly, be the Tesla Model S and the Chevy Volt.

After tax incentives, the Tesla Model S will cost about $50,000,the Chevy Volt about $33,000, although it seems the Model S will be more of a luxury sedan than the Volt.

The Model S will offer an electric range of about 225 miles between charges. The Volt should offer at least 300 miles, but the Volt also offers the ability to use gasoline to generate electricity.

Personally, I'd love to have both vehicles, but neither make sense for my driving needs. However, if I had to pick one, it would easily be the Volt and for one reason only, cost.

Which brings me to a touchy subject. Tax incentives for wealthy people. Or, more precisely, tax incentives for cars costing far above $30,000 - a number most Americans cannot afford. Shouldn't the government focus it's tax incentives on cars with the most mass-appeal? Cars that provide the quickest adoption for the greatest numbers possible?

If you can afford a $50,000 auto, how badly do you really need a $7500 tax credit?

The General has no lithium supply fears

Lithium supply will not limit EVs

Every company always has to put their best foot forward. To do otherwise, often times, would lead to the end of your business. So companies often wear rose-colored glasses when projecting their business viability forward.

Nonetheless, it was noteworthy today that in a Volt battery update conference, GM stated bluntly that lithium supply constraints would not hamper the Volt, nor the electrification of the automobile.

Chevy Volt on track, even ahead of schedule

Batteries to become a core business for GM

As you read this, GM isn't just finalizing 80 prototype Chevy Volts that will be used this summer to get the Volt ready for final production, GM is also concurrently working on 2nd and 3rd generation Volts.

Why? For instance, according to Denise Gray, the Director of Global Battery Systems Engineering, GM is already realizing that electronic systems, for instance, could lead to cheaper prices for 2nd and 3rd generation Volts.

Anyway, that's some of what GM stated today in a Volt battery update, which I'll cover in greater detail later. However, GM did confirm that the Volt is on track for its 2010 launch. In fact, the Volt is even ahead of schedule in some aspects of development.

Hating GM, Obama and America: Why it's time to bail out the Big 3

Time to leave it all behind

I've loved hating GM over the years. Even the Chevy Volt is worth hating sometimes. We've been hearing about it for years and its still almost years away. Furthermore, most Americans need fuel efficient solutions that cost less than $20,000, but can still achieve 40 mpg in the city.

Where's that GM product?

Yet, whom do I really hate when I hate GM? Is not GM but a microcosm of America? Health care, social security and pensions are intricately intertwined between GM - and the larger auto industry - and America. In many ways, GM's failures are America's failures.

Finish: Hating GM, Obama and America: Why it's time to bail out the Big 3

A Volt for every dysfuntional American?

The cure for America's range anxiety

OK. Let's get this out of the way. In a perfect world, the Chevy Volt doesn't make sense.

Elon Musk of Tesla has said it. Studies like the recent CMU study suggest it.

Battery powered vehicles are simply most efficient on short trips - about 20 miles or less between charges. Fortunately, that would accommodate the real world driving patterns of most Americans.

Of course, it's not as simple as that. Finish: A Volt for every dysfunctional American

Can the Volt save GM from bankruptcy?

Irrelevant or GM's Ace card?

CNBC's Phil Lebeau reiterated his belief that bankruptcy is not in the cards for GM. According to Lebeau the government made up its mind about saving GM some time ago. Check out this video of Lebeau on this issue, which includes a Chevy Volt test drive.

Yesterday, President Obama's task force drove the Volt and reviewed GM's EV plans. Since Congress built its plug-in tax credits around large battery plug-ins, such as the Volt, it does seem as if bankruptcy was probably never very likely.

Obama's auto task force to drive Volt today

Do Voltec economics make sense?

Members of President Obama's auto task force will take the Chevy Volt out for a spin today, and hear more from GM about its plans for Voltec - the powertrain powering the Chevy Volt.

Does the Volt justify more bailout money for GM?

GM responds to CMU study questioning Volt viability

It's not dead yet

Last week Carnegie Melon University put out a study questioning Volt viability. Actually, it wasn't just questioning the Chevy Volt, but the size of the battery pack in a plug-in vehicle and whether or not it would be cost-competitive, reduce global warming issues, etc. compared to conventional cars, hybrid cars and smaller battery-pack hybrids.

Yesterday, GM responded. One of their primary contentions was the cost of the battery pack cited in study, which GM claims is over-estimated.

The response also suggests the Volt won't be cost-effective at first, but scalability will change that. Read the full response here.

Why doesn't the Prius qualify for a tax credit?

Too much pressure on US automakers?

Why doesn't the Toyota Prius qualify for a tax credit? Why not the Honda Insight?

If it were the Ford Prius that was today's king of hybrid cars, would the government have extended tax credits on such vehicles long ago?

Today, automakers use EVs as an excuse not to build hybrids much in the same way they once used fuel cells. Certainly, EVs are more realistic than fuel cells, but they still haven't been proven reliable and, more importantly, cost-effective, etc. And, even worse, a new study questions the entire cost-effectiveness of the Chevy Volt.

Besides, it will take decades to convert America's fleet into any type of more fuel efficient vehicles. Hybrids are a great solution today that could be converted into plug-in hybrids tomorrow - by American companies, such as A123Systems. Shouldn't we be doing everything we can today about energy efficiency today?

Is a Prius plant in America really so irrelevant?

GM resets plans for Volt engine

Engine will eventually be made in America

When the Chevy Volt goes on sale in late 2010, it will come loaded with not only a foreign-made battery, but a foreign made engine. Fortunately, that should change some time in 2011, when GM adds Chevy Cruze and Volt engine production to its Flint South engine plant according to new reports.

What vehicles will save hybrid-less Detroit?

Hybrids, small cars or EVs?

OK, before I get started, I have to give Ford a few props. Ford has been selling about 25,000 hybrid cars per year for many years now. Soon, it will lift that production to about 50,000 hybrids per year.

Of course, that's nothing compared to Toyota's hybrid vehicle sales, and Ford has yet to directly challenge the Prius.

So, what vehicles will save Detroit, if not a Prius-fighter?

Well, it isn't going to be plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevy Volt, according to CNN. In the near term, such vehicles are "pricey and unprofitable" and mostly about "public relations and marketing benefits".

Likewise, small cars also aren't very profitable to US automakers, which Detroit builds purely for first time buyers whom later trade up for more profitable vehicles.

Yet, what if gas hovers around $3.00 or $4.00 for the next four years?

At such prices, fuel efficiency will matter, but it won't matter enough to push a majority of Americans into expensive PHEVS, for instance. They'd probably go smaller, or buy cheaper hybrids, such as the Honda Insight.

Again, however, this is a segment that US automakers seem not able to compete. So, what kinds of vehicles can guarantee the viability of Detroit without massive government assistance, especially amidst turbulent energy prices?

Prius plant in America - Do you care?

An American-made foreign oil dependency fighter?

Now that Toyota is offering buyouts for US workers and cutting pay for everyone, a new US plant to develop Prius hybrids - in America - appears dead.

Do you care? Many don't because it's a foreign company.

Yet, when the first Chevy Volt hits the street in 2010, it will be manufactured with an imported engine and an imported battery - the most critical component in the vehicle.

Do you care?

Couldn't having significant numbers of Toyota hybrid vehicles built in America help develop a US battery industry? Wouldn't that be a good thing?

Is this the time for nationalism, or the intelligent acceptance of the global economy?

Does GM have the right products?

Will the Volt make sense?

When the Chevy Volt goes on sale in late 2010, there will be no shortage of buyers. In fact, there will probably never be a shortage of Volt buyers. Of course, for many years, there will be a shortage of Volts as supply chains are slowly developed.

However, can the Volt move from fad to mainstream, especially when tax credits for such vehicles expire? Will the Volt be cost effective for hundreds of thousands of average consumers every year within the next decade?

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, plug-in hybrids and EVs are not going to make financial sense until long after 2020.

Conventional hybrid cars, on the other hand, such as the Toyota Prius that outgoing product guru Bob Lutz hated so much, will make much more financial sense by 2020, even without tax incentives.

Thus, can Tom Stephens, whom will replace Lutz, fill GM's hybrid void with a vehicle that can directly challenge the Prius, in terms of not just fuel economy, but cost?

Since Stephens' specialty has been powertrains, rather than just design, a new focus on additional powertrain solutions seems possible. Dare I say even inevitable?

With California's EPA waiver now a very strong possibility, the Volt and Flex Fuel cars are not going to be enough to ensure GM's survival. A cheap small hybrid seems an absolute requirement, and Stephens actually gives me hope that such a GM vehicle is now a possibility.

Volt's father to retire this year

Bob Lutz at the Volt's NAIAS debut

GM's product chief and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz is set to retire at the end of this year.

The legendary Lutz was one of the main drivers of GM's Chevy Volt program, but he will not hang around long enough to see the vehicle hit the streets in late 2010. The 76 year old has had enough.

A fierce critic of global warming and the Toyota Prius, Lutz has often been on the wrong side of issues covered by this blog. In fact, I used to refer to him as "Lutz, the putz".

Still, having had the opportunity to be around Lutz a few times at various auto events was a priceless experience for this blogger. Nobody made a press event more entertaining than Bob Lutz, even if you did disagree with him.

Technology: Do the Big 3 have the right stuff?

Can this car save Chrysler?

So, Big 3 automakers are at the Washington Auto Show trying to prove to the White House and Congress that they have the right technology to reduce foreign oil dependency and fight global warming?

But do they really?

Probably the most iconic example of next generation American auto technology is the Chevy Volt. Many, including this blogger, have called the Volt game-changing. However, I make that statement with one caveat: cost-effectiveness.

I have no doubts that the technology powering the Volt will be a success. I do, however, have some doubts that the Volt's technology can achieve cost-effectiveness and cost-competitiveness. In fact, I don't even think there is a chance of cost-efficiency without significantly higher fuel prices - probably much higher than what was experienced this past summer.

Moreover, perhaps the Volt is the wrong kind of technology for America's problems. Maybe more conventional hybrid vehicles or plug-in hybrids, such as a plug-in Prius or a plug-in Escape hybrid, aren't as technologically sophisticated, but they are simply more cost-effective. Or, just a better balance of upfront costs and long term fuel savings.

Today, there are just too many variables - too much uncertainty - to make predictions based on technology that not one automaker has yet sold in the real world. Besides, markets determine winners, not PR departments.

What is clear today, however, is that the Big 3 cannot cost-effectively compete at selling fuel efficient technology. So, why will the future be any different?

Imported battery and engine to power Volt

A few Volt lithium battery packs

When the Chevy Volt hits the streets next year it will be powered by both imported batteries and and an imported engine according to the UAW.

GM does plan to eventually produce both the batteries and the engines in the US but, according to the latest reports, there are no concrete plans for when and how that happens. In fact, the new engine plant planned for Flint might even be put on hold indefinitely.

Likewise, there is no proof, for example, that GM can cost-effectively produce lithium batteries in the US.

At least the Volt will be assembled in the US.

A few less amps in the Volt?

It'll be a winner, but when?

I'm a big fan of the Chevy Volt. I think it's one of GM's most interesting projects in decades. Unfortunately, that isn't necessarily saying much. Yet, while the Volt has great potential, I still cannot help but ask when will the Volt be a real game changer, because it certainly isn't in late 2010 when the vehicle launches.

GM has been pretty frank about the fact that the Volt isn't going to be rolling off production lines by the thousands every month in 2011. In fact, in 2011, GM might only make a few 1,000 Volts. 100,000 Volts per year is easily five years away, perhaps even much longer.

Yesterday, Frank Weber, a Flex Drive executive wrote "The Opel Ampera and Chevrolet Volt are production programs designed to meet the needs of thousands of customers, not a modified production vehicle for fleet or demo drives. "

Is the key word from that statement "thousands" of customers?

Without doubt, the Volt is an essential piece of GM's future, but is it really enough today if Obama's green revolution takes hold amidst stable gas prices? With California's EPA waiver?

The Volt should never have been an excuse not to challenge the Toyota Prius directly as soon as possible, and that decision, I bet, is going to come back and bite GM's bottom line - if it hasn't already.

Dump Detroit if they can't compete with the Prius

How can Detroit compete in the future without a Prius-contender?

President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress have some new and refreshing ideas for America. To fight foreign oil dependency and global warming - while creating jobs - Democrats are proposing huge investments in cost-inefficient green technologies often built by inefficient companies.

To make these green technologies more cost-effective, many - including this blogger - have suggested a gas tax. Thus far, however, President Obama has been against the idea. In these economic times, it's hard to blame him for such a stance. Still, eventually, some tough decisions must be made.

US automakers are struggling just to survive and if US auto sales don't pick up next year, it's going to be hard for these automakers to survive without a massive bailout. As a result, many are suggesting tax incentives for the consumers of US-made vehicles - most of which are gas-guzzlers. That's not very green.

Yet, this is the conundrum Obama and Democrats must manage. Is it really worth it to create a false market based upon gas-guzzler sales? Maybe the reality is, is that Americans are going to be purchasing less cars. That could be the new automotive reality, and there have been a few studies suggesting that America's love affair with the car is over.

Even more important, there is a good chance that California will soon be regulating its own emissions standards. That means vehicles like the Toyota Prius and the Honda Insight might quickly become the best selling vehicles in California, and as many as 17 other states. Yet, what will Detroit automakers sell? They have few, if any, hot, fuel efficient models.

Some will undoubtedly claim that GM can sell the Chevy Volt, for instance. Well, GM probably won't be selling many Volts by 2016 when California's 30 percent reduction goes into effect. And, even if GM can increase production, the Insight will cost $20,000, the Volt $40,000. Can the Volt really be enough, especially if gas prices don't increase drastically?

Even Ford, with its new hybrid technology, still doesn't have a Prius-contender. While its new Ford Fusion hybrid is compelling, why is Ford only planning to make 25,000 of these hybrid vehicles? More important, if you're rolling out a new hybrid drive, why would you not challenge the standard, the Prius, as Honda did? Can you not compete?

By 2016, when California emission standards go live, Toyota could be selling a million hybrids per year, a majority of them Prius hybrids, yet Detroit might not yet have a competitive - in terms of technology AND costs - product. Can you really bank on Detroit in that reality?

Should Obama save the Big 3 at any cost?

25,000 per year for years now

Last night I was watching an interesting NOVA program called The Big Energy Gamble and how AB 32 is going to drastically change the auto market in California. Essentially, if California moves forward with AB 32, automakers will need to sell many millions of hybrid cars or EVs in California alone, in order to meet CO2 emissions requirements.

And, there are many states considering similar laws if California's continues to move forward.

Toyota, the king of hybrid cars, is well on its way to helping California meet its goals, and Honda is ramping up its hybrid production as well, although even Honda has some serious work ahead.

The Big 3, on the other hand, seem pathetically far behind. Possibly, Ford has some plans, but as the automaker has only been able to make 25,000 Escape hybrids per year, and has the same 25,000 cap for the Fusion hybrid, I have some serious worries. Sadly, GM and Chrysler seem even further behind.

Yet, as the bailout deadline approaches, the UAW is already calling on Obama for help. If this were the end of all bailout talk, a little extension wouldn't be a bad idea, but this is just the beginning.

GM's latest prediction for 2009 auto sales, for example, is even worse than 2008. According to Big 3 Congressional bailout testimony, GM's prediction for 2009 is unsustainable if it continues for a few years, regardless of any bailout money. UNSUSTAINABLE. The auto industry, as we know it today, would collapse.

Even if things get better, the Big 3 are still in no position to make a serious stab at fuel economy, especially if the requirement is as aggressive as AB32 - something Obama has supported. According to an economist from Moody's during Congressional testimony on the bailout, the US auto industry will need about 100 billion over the next few years just to survive.

How much more it take to make the Big 3 green?

Not one of the Big 3 has yet developed a cheap hybrid to challenge the Prius. Do they really believe that millions of Americans are going to be able to afford $40,000 Volts in five years? Will GM even be making 100,000 Volts per year by then?

President Obama's plans for an energy moon shot should move forward, and I'm sure it will, but should our moon shot be limited to the Big 3's ability to make it happen? Might it not be better, for instance, for the government to regulate standards and requirements, put all incentives in the hands of consumers, and let ALL automakers COMPETE for consumers, even if it means the UAW loses 1/2 its workforce because its products don't compete?

Or, should Obama save the Big 3 at any and all costs and make the Big 3 essential to our moon shot?

Chevy Volt: The greatest marketing gimmick ever?

Never put off until tomorrow what can be done today

A few years ago, a rumor began to hit the blogosphere about a new vehicle that GM was developing that would leapfrog the Toyota Prius. At that time, as a perpetual critic of GM, I stated that if true, I would become that technology's biggest advocate.

Not long after, GM took me at my word and invited me to the debut of the original Chevy Volt concept at NAIAS. Since then, GM has invited me to numerous press events focused around the Volt, and I've interviewed most major members of the Volt team - a great, passionate and totally committed team.

I've also been around a number of Bob Lutz interviews - group interviews - but I've only been able to ask him one question: Why not directly take on the Prius as the Volt is developed? Lutz, a Prius-hater, wondered why GM would waste its time on such a task and confirmed that the dual mode hybrid technology that GM was putting into SUVs was never intended for small cars (more).

I've never agreed with Lutz and GM on this point, and it's been my major criticism of the Volt - it's not doing enough soon enough. I also don't agree that the Volt is really a Prius-contender, perhaps a plug-in Prius contender, but not a Prius contender.

Now that it has become clear that GM never intended the Volt to be a real world game changer until the later part of the next decade, even as late as 2020, I feel a bit enraged. Not so much about the Volt - it's been pretty obvious that the Volt wouldn't be a significant product until at least 2015 for several months now.

What enrages me is that GM assumed that marketing alone was enough to fight the Prius until technology caught up to the Volt. Instead of diverting a few hundred million of its yearly multibillion dollar advertising budget away from gas-guzzling SUVs to develop a fuel efficient Prius-contender, GM decided more marketing was enough.

Before the Volt debut, Bob Lutz regularly called the Prius a joke and a marketing gimmick. Perhaps the Prius is nothing but a marketing gimmick along the way to electrification, but at least it is a real product widely available for sale - a product that has achieved sales of more than a million very efficient vehicles.

The Volt is still almost two years away from very, very limited sales, and the Volt won't achieve today's Prius sales for at least another decade. If that isn't the ultimate "marketing gimmick", I don't know what is.

Certainly, the Volt is still game-changing technology, but I think there is a real danger of the Volt being too many eggs in one basket. More important, while GM can talk about a gas tax, the reality is that a gas price spike could be just around the corner. If such a spike happens in the next couple of years, all the marketing hype behind the Volt won't help GM one bit nor will 10,000 Volts per year, however, a direct Prius-contender could.

Chrysler's new EVs cast shadow on Chevy Volt

Same 40 miles as the Chevy Volt?

Something stinks in Detroit, but I'm not sure what it is.

Now that Chrysler has rolled out some new or updated EVs at the Detroit Auto Show, such as the pictured 200C EV Concept, I have a few serious questions.

First, is Chrysler even going to be around in 12 months?

Second, if it's so easy for Chrysler to put its range extended EV technology into so many different kinds of vehicle types, while achieving the coveted 40 miles of electric range, why did GM have to change the original style of the Chevy Volt so much?

According to GM, much of that change was due to aerodynamics. In particular, if GM's Voltec, or range extended electric vehicle drive, was going to achieve 40 miles of electricity in the Volt, the aerodynamics of the concept needed to be changed significantly. Several months ago, GM hosted a press conference where reporters went through GM's wind tunnel, Volt design center and 3D imaging lab and, over and over, GM iterated the importance of aerodynamics.

Yet, if aerodynamics are so pertinent to the Volt, why do they seem so much less pertinent to Chrysler's vehicles? Is it just me, or is something just not jiving?

Perhaps, Chrysler is simply willing to use bigger battery packs to resolve this difference. That would, however, mean higher prices - even much higher prices. If true, is that an effective and realistic approach to EV economies of scale? Is it just greenwashing PR?

Or, is Chrysler's technology simply better than the Voltecs powering the Volt?

Can the Cadillac Converj diversify Voltec drive?

Twice the price of the Volt?

I've had conversations with many people whom already believe that the Chevy Volt is too expensive for what it offers. Thus, it appears it will, minimally, be a few generations to bring the Volt's costs down to a more mainstream figure.

Consequently, it isn't surprising that GM would try to add more models to the Flex Drive, now known as Voltec, to help spread costs. Hence, the Cadillac Converj concept.

Yet, how much can Converj help spread costs?

It's obviously a fantastic looking vehicle and it should achieve similar performance to the Volt, yet can GM really move many of these vehicles? Does the Converj offer much momentum to Voltec economies of scale?

Ultimately, I don't think so. More important, if there is a kink in Voltec, what else will GM have to offer in the interim, especially if fuel economy again reigns supreme? Full size dual mode hybrid SUVs?

Considering that there are countless things that could cause an immediate spike in gasoline prices within the next few years, is Voltec really a short-to-midterm solution? As ground breaking as the Volt is, a cheap, small 50+ mpg hybrid might have far more legs than the Volt for several more years, even a decade.

Furthermore, with the release of Ford's new electrification plans, and what we've known of Toyota's plans, the Volt and its Voltec drive are appearing less and less revolutionary each year, in addition to less comprehensive in terms of overall fleet fuel economy. And, with almost two years until the Volt officially debuts, can Voltec really be enough?

Volt plans in A123Systems' loan request?

All Chrysler, or something else?

Not long ago, A123Systems was in the running for the first Chevy Volt battery contract, but it didn't win. Nonetheless, and immediately, GM announced that A123Systems was still under consideration for future generations of Volt battery contracts (and who knows about dual mode plug-ins, such as the proposed Saturn Vue).

Nonetheless, regardless of the Volt contract, A123Systems has serious potential business with a number of other players, such as Chrysler, Better Place, and Nissan. So, the fact that A123Systems is trying to start a lithium battery factory in Michigan with $1.8 billion in government loans isn't that surprising.

GM's Volt buddha, Bob Lutz, stated, "At GM, we see the development of vehicles powered by electricity as key to the transformation of our industry. And advanced battery technology, is at the heart of this transformation. A123's proposal to manufacture advanced battery cells and packs right here in the United States is a positive development for our industry and the nation."

Here! Here!

So, do GM and Lutz believe in the potential of Ford and Chrysler EVs then? Is the Volt not so special? Or, is GM also still very interested in A123Systems as a partner in electrification and, therefore, very interested in such government contracts?

I'm probably reading too much into this loan request, but I certainly hope I'm barking up the right tree.

I've had the opportunity to meet David Vieau, A123Systems president and CEO, and I have absolute faith in that firm. Yes, they're still an up-and-coming company, but GM - as an American company - owes A123 serious consideration, and I get the feeling they are going to get it one way or another.

I know I'll have my fingers crossed for A123.

The Volt will kick EV1 ass

Let's get real folks

I've pretty much had it with the EV1, GM killed the electric car, folks.

Did GM kill the electric car? Shut up.

Every automaker is working on an electric car today. No one killed the electric car. Cheap gas, however, delayed the emergence of the electric car.

Did GM screw up the EV1 program? Absolutely, but without much higher gas prices, how many EV1's could GM really have sold, especially if they sold them at real world cost? Honestly, 5 years ago, how many would have paid $40,000+ for a two-seat vehicle with 100 mile range and 6 hour charge requirements?

Certainly, some would have, but the EV1 would never have achieved the economies of scale to achieve profitability. NEVER. And, for GM haters, even Toyota has publicly stated that it could never achieve profitability on NiMH-powered EVs.

Nonetheless, could GM have parlayed the EV1 into 10,000 units a year and lots of positive green press? Yes. But, what would that have really changed? Ultimately, it would have just greenwashed the fact that gas-guzzlers were still GM's bread and butter.

If GM made a big mistake, in my opinion, it was that it didn't convert its EV1 experience into a Prius-like hybrid to help further develop battery technology while addressing fuel economy immediately. Yet, how much would a Prius-like hybrid have really helped GM? After 10 years of Prius production, it is unlikely that Toyota has yet recovered its total Prius investment.

Does that absolve GM's mistakes? Hell no, but let's keep some perspective people.

And, most important, the EV1 DOES NOT prove that NiMH batteries could now be powering the Chevy Volt. The EV1 had 100 miles of range, then required a 6 hour charge. The Chevy Volt, when not powered by grid electricity, uses electricity created by on-board generator. That means the Volt might go 500 miles without stopping, plugging into the grid, etc. Yet, for that entire 500 miles, the Volt will be relying on its battery pack as electricity always powers the Volt.

When did the EV1 ever go 500 miles without multiple charges? That's right, never. Not even close.

Inevitably, the battery requirements of the Volt and the EV1 are vastly different - it's apples to oranges - especially when you're going to offer a 10 year warranty on the battery pack.

Furthermore, as a consumer, if you could buy a 100 mile range EV1 for the same price as a Volt with unlimited range, which would you buy?

Yet, if gas prices are below $3.00, even the Volt won't really help GM much, and full electrification will still be decades away. So, if you want to get angry about the killing of the electric car, get mad at GM's lobbyists. Get made at your Congressperson. And, if you want to get really crazy, tell your representatives in Washington that you want higher gas taxes.

GM reiterates: Volt on schedule

Still ready for 2010

Earlier this week GM announced that a plant to build engines for both the Chevy Volt and the Chevy Cruze was being delayed pending the bailout. However, GM also announced that this delay would not delay the development of the Volt.

Jon Lauckner, GM's Vice President Global Program Management reiterated that yesterday on GM's FastLaneBlog. "The development of the Volt remains on-schedule despite the ongoing talks in Washington, D.C. It is one of the highest, if not the highest, priority programs in the company and that hasn’t changed, nor has the commitment of resources to fund it. In fact, with the successful completion of each development activity, we have more confidence than ever the Volt will start production as planned in late 2010."

Volt plant delayed

Launch date still on target

GM has delayed plans to begin construction on a new factory that will make engines for both the Chevy Volt and the Chevy Cruze until the bailout issue is resolved to help save its dwindling cash supply. Nonetheless, according to those reports, the Volt will still hit showrooms in 2010.

Chrysler EVs: Not a one trick pony

Chrysler's first electric vehicle?

While many believe that Chrysler won't be around in a couple of years, Chrysler is moving ahead with plans to electrify the automobile. And, in a CNN piece, Chrysler took a poke at the Chevy Volt and claimed that it wouldn't be a one trick pony, or "one electric vehicle company."

Thus, Chrysler's big EV plans are to forgo aerodynamics, weight and fancy designs. Instead, Chrysler will begin its EV program by converting traditional Chrysler vehicles into electric vehicles, while achieving the same kinds of performance as a Volt - all at a cheaper cost to the automaker and to consumers.

So, why didn't GM think of that?

Because, at least initially, it doesn't seem to make sense. For instance, the Volt will use a 16 kwh battery pack - the most critical and expensive component of the Volt. Chrysler's Jeep EV, on the other hand, will use a 27 kwh battery. Yet, somehow, Chrysler's EVs will be more cost-effective?

In the future, however, Chrysler's plans make a bit more sense. New EV production will be coordinated with conventional vehicle production. Thus, every Chrysler auto made can be either a gasoline-powered car, or an EV. Hence, Chrysler will be able to react quickly to market demand if it switches from gas to EV and back to gas again, for instance. Still, that program won't begin until at least 2012, and it seems a little perfect world.

Nonetheless, it's good to see Chrysler developing sophisticated EV plans, even if they are more about bailout bribery than reality. Still, do such plans really make Chrysler any more viable in the next 10 years?

Will the Big 3 ever top the Prius?

The poster child of fuel economy

I'm an advocate for the Chevy Volt. The Volt and, more important, the E Flex Drive powering the Volt, demonstrate that GM is preparing for the future.

Unfortunately, however, 100,000 Volts per year is still many years away. In fact, even though the 3rd generation of the Toyota Prius is set to launch next year, Toyota will probably be rolling out the 4th generation Prius by the time GM is ready to start producing 100,000 Volts per year. By then the Hybrid Synergy Drive powering the Prius will be vastly different than today's version.

Which will be better? Which will be more cost-effective?

On the other hand, Chrysler....well, I don't even know what to say about Chrysler.

Fortunately, Ford's new hybrid powertrain represents some hope, and early Fusion hybrid reports indicate that Ford has a hit on its hands, maybe. With plans to only produce 25,000 Fusion hybrids next year, it's hard not to be a bit concerned. Likewise, why didn't Ford roll out its new hybrid powertrain in a unique, hybrid-only vehicle? Thus, I cannot help but wonder if Ford's new hybrid powertrain is cost-effective, for instance. Still, Ford is a wild card.

So, will the Big 3 ever top the Prius? I don't know, but if it does happen, it won't be any time soon.

GM's plans for the bailout money, for the future

Hard to get excited about hybrids like the Tahoe

Just checked out a video that GM is using to trump up support for the bailout of the US auto industry, something I already support, although tentatively. Yet, this video demonstrates the problem with the Big 3 and with GM. Too much tomorrow. The next big thing, such as the Chevy Volt, is never here today, it's always tomorrow.

No doubt, quality at GM has improved greatly over the years, and massive restructuring has been achieved and more is forthcoming. Cars like the Malibu are solid winners. And, next year, GM will have 9 hybrid cars available for sale, far more than anyone else. Yet, will any of them ever sell at least 50,000 units per year?

And, as exciting as the Chevy Volt is, it will still lag far behind Toyota Prius sales for at least another decade. In fact, while the Volt will be a game changer, it probably won't hit its game-changing stride until close to 2020. By then, it might not be quite as unique as it is today.

The Chevy Volt might be the best green vehicle selling at least 100,000 units per year in 2016, but America, at least those doubting GM, want to see GM challenge the Prius with a vehicle that can sell 100,000 units today.

Carpe diem, GM. Carpe diem.

Chevy Volt cost-competitive by 2016?

A Congressional update

During Congressional testimony today, GM CEO Rick Wagoner was asked when the Chevy Volt would be cost-competitive to gasoline vehicles. Depending on sales volume, Wagoner stated that by 2016 or 2017 the Volt might be cost competitive.

Of course, this might not be in terms of sticker price, but in terms of overall ownership. For instance, a cheaper gas car plus the cost of gasoline versus a more expensive Volt and its energy savings. Likewise, it would take many years of profitability to recover the R&D and manufacturing start-up costs.

While that's good news, it also demonstrates that hybrid vehicles, such as the Volt, can't save GM or any other Big 3 automakers any time soon.

A Better Place than the Volt?

So yesterday?

It's 2016 and you need a new car. Now, you aren't rich. You're middle, middle class and living paycheck to paycheck. You really like the Chevy Volt, but all the consumer tax credits have been consumed, and the upfront costs are just too much. The new Toyota Prius, on the other hand, costs $10,000 less than the Volt, but skyrocketing gasoline prices mean even the fuel efficiency of hybrid cars might not be enough to save you from serious pump pain.

So, instead you buy a Prius-sized electric vehicle from one of Better Place's partners that not only costs several thousand less than the Prius, but your monthly fees for battery and charging are a third the cost of what you'd pay in monthly gas bills.

And, even if you have to take a few long trips that push you beyond Better Place's range, it would still be far cheaper to rent a Prius on those special occasions.

Seems a bit far-fetched, but the way Better Place keeps inking deals, I'm starting to believe that maybe it's possible. Maybe it isn't car makers that are critical to the future, but rather battery and infrastructure companies. And, maybe that future is closer than we think.

Bailout: What would sell you?

Build more hybrids?

If there is one thing that has annoyed me with the US auto industry more than anything the last 5 years, it's been the lack of hybrid cars, especially a Prius-fighter. Even GM's Chevy Volt really isn't a Prius-fighter. For many more years, there is going to be a need for both conventional hybrids and plug-in vehicles. Yet, I've still not heard of a plan from one US automaker to directly challenge the Toyota Prius.

Would a detailed plan to build more hybrid vehicles, in addition to plug-ins, sell you on an automaker bailout? What else would it take? Serious cuts in executive compensation? Serious cuts it UAW benefits?

What would sell you on the legitimacy of a bailout, or a bridge loan, for US automakers? Can anything sell you?

Forget plug-ins without a gas tax?

Insight: More realistic than plug-ins?

When it comes to buying a car, sticker price is the most important issue for most consumers. Unfortunately, hybrid cars and plug-in vehicles cost more, which makes it harder for manufacturers to turn a profit on such vehicles.

Thus, while GM has hung its green PR hat on the Chevy Volt plug-in vehicle, the Volt isn't going to help GM's bottom line for many years.

"In 10 years are they [at GM] going to solve the technological problems with respect to the Volt? Sure," says Maryann Keller, an automotive analyst and author of a book on GM. "But are they going to be able to stake their survival, which is really more of a now to five-year proposition, on it? I'd say they can't. They have to stake their future on Malibus, the Chevy Cruze, and much more conventional technologies."

Add $2.00 gas and how many consumers are really willing to pay a few thousand extra for a hybrid, or several thousand extra for a plug-in hybrid?

Is a mass conversion to plug-in vehicles possible in the next few decades without significantly higher gas prices? Isn't it time to get serious about a new gas tax?

Bob Lutz stays focused on the Volt

Volt development going great

GM is on the verge of bankruptcy but, hey, the Chevy Volt is going great. That's the latest word from Bob Lutz.

"I ended up putting in about 30 miles behind the wheel, and I couldn’t be more pleased with the vehicle, the development, or the team behind it. And they will continue to work round the clock to further refine the Volt and get it on the road — and in your hands — year after next."

Almost makes me forget that GM is days from bankruptcy, almost.

LA Auto Show: Stupid is, stupid does

The buzz amongst consumers?

I spent a few hours at the LA Auto Show this weekend to get a feel for consumer reaction to the show and to specific vehicles, particularly hybrid vehicles. Obviously, consumers don't go to auto shows only looking for vehicles they would buy, they also go to live out fantasies of Ferrari ownership, or Rolls Royce luxury. So, following the crowds isn't always indicative of real world consumerism.

Nonetheless, I did notice a few interesting things. For instance, when it came to Ford and GM, neither the new Fusion hybrid nor the Chevy Volt most piqued consumer interest, instead attendees flocked to the Mustang and the Camaro.

In fact, the Fusion hybrid seemed to garner little interest, maybe because it looks just like, well, a Fusion.

Likewise, the Saturn Flextreme - built on the same E Flex Platform as the Volt - seemed to draw more interest than the Volt, perhaps because of its more unusual design. Still, the Volt was much more popular than the Fusion hybrid.

Again, auto shows might not be good barometers of consumer interest, however, if automakers did use the LA Show to help determine future consumer wants and desires, performance and gas-guzzling would still rule.

LA Auto Show - Volt still shines brightly

Still the green standard

GM debuted the Chevy Volt almost 2 years ago, yet it is still the green standard when it comes to Auto Shows. Sure, there are some pretty cool fuel cell vehicles out there, but PHEVs and EVs are much more realistic in the short to mid-term. In that segment, the Volt still stands above the rest.

Still, the competition is heating up. The Mini E, the Honda Insight and Hyundia's Hybrid Blue Drive were new developments at the LA Auto Show this year. And the competition will heat up even more at the Detroit Show in January when Toyota debuts the Third Generation Prius.

Plus, Hyundai, Honda and Toyota are seeking to challenge the Volt with much cheaper, conventional hybrid cars. Of course, Hyundai and Toyota will also challenge the Volt directly. Will GM ever challenge the Prius and Insight directly?

With two years before the Volt hits the streets, it seems obvious the competition will heat up even more. Will the Volt still dominate next year's LA Auto Show?

The bailout, electrification and gas prices

Is electrification going to save the US auto industry?

The article Will Detroit's cash crisis kill the electric car? questions whether the Chevy Volt can survive without the bailout, and whether the electric car dies if Detroit dies.

Please. The electrification of the automobile isn't dependent upon either GM or Detroit. In fact, very major automaker, and a number of minor automakers, are working on some form of electrification.

A smarter question might be, when is the electric car going to be profitable for any major automaker? Or, in what year will the first automaker produce even 100,000 EVs in a single year - something the Chevy Volt won't do for several years after it launches in late 2010.

Reality sucks

Tomorrow, the highly anticipated Honda Insight hybrid will hit the floors of the LA Auto Show. Yet, some are already questioning its viability at today's gas prices because study after study demonstrate that auto consumer interest in fuel economy is driven by one thing: gas prices.

Not global warming. Not foreign oil dependency. Simple economics.

Ultimately, gas prices could remain low for several more years. Coupled with a recession, these lower prices could severely dampen interest in hybrid cars and electric vehicles - vehicles that won't be profitable for already struggling US automakers for many years.

Saving the US auto industry is not going to be easy, and it is certainly not as simple as saving the Volt. While the Volt is undoubtedly an extremely important vehicle, it, and electrification in general, won't help solve any financial woes for many years. What happens until then?

Bailout automakers to save the Chevy Volt? No.

The Volt is not the reason to bailout GM

Today, Toyota makes a profit on all of its hybrid cars, thanks to the Prius. Yet, not one US automaker has developed a Prius-contender.

Rather than challenge the Toyota Prius directly, GM conceptualized a product to leapfrog Toyota - a perfect marketing coupe. Essentially, GM could claim that they didn't need to develop a car like the Prius because the Chevy Volt would be so much better than the Prius. This then gave GM time to keep rolling out gas-guzzlers as the technology caught up to the Volt concept.

Some have forgiven all of GM's past wrongs because of the Volt, and even believe that the entire US auto industry should be bailed out to protect the Volt. Yet, when will the Volt be profitable? When will GM be able to produce even 100,000 Volts per year? 5 years? 10 years?

More important, within 5 years, there is every reason to believe that numerous automakers might have products just as exciting as the Volt, even better than the Volt. Recently, even lowly Chrysler showed that they aren't that far behind the Volt.

Bailing out automakers solely for the Chevy Volt would the same kind of ignorance and denial that has put GM and the rest of the Big 3 in need of a bailout. A bailout MUST be about far, far more than the Volt.

Isn't a Volt delay inevitable?

All about the battery

GM is on life support. Without government money, bankruptcy is inevitable. Yet, GM has made it clear that not only is work on Chevy Volt development ongoing, but that more resources and money are being put into the Volt - the icon of GM's future.

Still, the most critical element of the Volt's success - the lithium-ion battery - is dependent upon technologies not wholly owned by GM. Ultimately, the battery supplier is almost just as important as anything GM is doing.

Isn't it, therefore, reasonable to assume that Volt suppliers might proceed cautiously and slowly until the viability of GM is guaranteed?

Nissan's future: Self-charging EVs

One of Nissan's EV concepts

Imagine a range extended electric vehicle, similar to the Chevy Volt, but without the gas. Instead, of using an engine to generate extra electricity, an onboard ultracapacitor would extend the range of the EV.

It might sound a little futuristic, and it is, but that is exactly one such plan that Nissan is working on as it seeks to become the leader in the electrification of the automobile according to Nissan's Minoru Shinohara, senior vice president of technology development.

And, according to Greentechmedia, Shinohara's views are not to be taken lightly.

Gas prices - Why strings MUST be attached to any bailout

Detroit still far behind the Prius

Pop open the bubbly, ladies and gentlemen, it's party time. In 4 states gas has fallen below $2.00 per gallon. On Wall Street, the overwhelming consensus is $50 oil before $65.

But, is that a good thing?

When gas was $2.00 US automakers laughed at the Toyota Prius. Today, the Prius has already sold more than 1,000,000 Prius hybrid cars, yet there won't be one US made Prius-contender on the road until late 2010 with the Chevy Volt. Moreover, GM probably won't be selling the 100,000 Volts per year until at least 2014.

Fortunately, if gas prices remain low, America's gas-guzzling will decline thanks to CAFE, but CAFE regulations won't be strong enough to end foreign oil dependency. Unfortunately, as history as proven, US automakers will simply do as much as needed to achieve CAFE, and when foreign oil dependency again rears its ugly head, America will again be unprepared.

Thus, a bailout must include strings.

Chevy Volt v. Better Place - Which is a niche?

Neither, both?

Just came across some ramblings on Autobloggreen regarding Shai Agassi's comments calling the Chevy Volt a niche, which seemed to disturb the author.

Instead of buying a $40,000 car, Project Better Place would have drivers pay to access a network of charging spots and conveniently located battery exchange stations powered by renewable energy, plus a mileage fee. This, according to Project Better Place, would make cars much more affordable, even free in some markets.

Before getting too hot and bothered, both the Volt and Project Better Place need to prove their technology. Still, study after study after study demonstrates that consumers are primarily focused on up front costs when buying a new vehicle. Thus, it's obvious that Project Better Place's cell phone business model has potential.

Nonetheless, it will take decades to develop the infrastructure required for Project Better Place to work in America. One day, however, such a model could make range extended electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids nothing but niches. Of course, one day both vehicles might actually be sold in the real world.....one day. Until then, anything is possible.

Chevy Volt untouchable (updated)

Volt and the EV1

Early reports coming out of Detroit indicated that, despite program cuts at GM, the Chevy Volt  would continue to be untouchable. As the Volt has become one of GM's best PR tools and its marquee brand for the future, this news was expected. 

And, with $25 billion in DOE fuel efficiency loans available, the Volt is the ultimate candidate. So, continuing the Volt program might not even cost GM very much.

Following this post GM announced that it would actually increase spending on the Volt program. Of course, is that because of DOE money? Regardless, without government help, GM won't be able to continue producing the Volt. So, for now, it's all about the bailout.

The Volt or bust? Should GM delay the Volt?

Can GM afford the Volt?

Tomorrow, GM is going to be making some big announcements related to how the automaker is burning through cash faster than anticipated. New cost-saving measures are forthcoming.

Already, GM has hinted at product delays, but the Chevy Volt has been an untouchable golden goose in those plans, but is that wise?

As a Volt advocate, I would be disappointed with a Volt delay, but I would find it understandable and forgivable. Aside from PR, the Volt can't make money for GM for many years, and GM needs money today. Thus, shouldn't GM's near term focus be on products that can immediately provide a return on investment?

Fuel economy versus auto jobs - What's more important?

No US Prius competitors any time soon

Fuel economy. In and of itself, fuel efficiency doesn't sound important. However, when you add foreign oil dependency into the equation, fuel economy becomes vital - perhaps the most vital issue facing America.

Yet, is America really taking foreign oil dependency seriously?

Finish: Fuel economy versus auto jobs - What's more important?

Black October over - Next for the Big 3?

October was scary, but is the worst over?

So, October was a pretty scary month for US automakers, and it now appears inevitable that the Big 3 will become the Big 2. But, is that is bad as it gets? Is the worst over?

Before addressing the dark side, there were a few a bright spots in October. GM, for instance, stated that despite massive financial concerns, the development of the Chevy Volt will continue as planned. And Ford, according to Consumer Reports, has basically caught up to the best automakers in quality. Moreover, the Ford Fusion hybrid might be a more solid hybrid than the Toyota Camry hybrid.

Still, with the economy possibly crashing into a recession, financial issues could become much worse for automakers, especially US automakers whom have been hit particularly hard by the dramatic decline in gas-guzzler sales. So, even if these automakers avoid bankruptcy, will they really be able to afford producing significant numbers of new, fuel efficient vehicles? When will a US automaker produce 100,000 hybrid cars per year (including the Volt)?

Financial problems won't stop Volt development

The Volt or bust?

GM has confirmed that it will delay new vehicle production to save cash. Thus, vehicles seen as vital to GM's future, such as the Chevy Cruze, will be delayed. However, GM will not put any holds on the Chevy Volt according to Reuters.

LG Chem picked as Volt battery supplier

A123Systems still in it?

According to a number of sources, GM has picked LG Chem and Compact Power to develop the lithium-ion batteries for the Chevy Volt, although GM is not officially confirming this report.

Nonetheless, the same sources also report that GM will continue to work with A123Systems on future battery developments. Apparently, the Volt deal might not be purely about technology either, but the willingness of suppliers to share warranty costs.

Furthermore, a majority of the Volt prototypes currently use LG Chem batteries and GM has been happy with those batteries thus far.

A123Systems and the perfect hybrid battery

Made in America

About a month ago, when Chrysler announced its new plug-in vehicles, it seemed hard to believe that Chrysler might be as close to plug-ins as GM and the Chevy Volt. But there are now a few tantalizing details about the batteries powering Chrysler's ENVI, or electric drive initiative, vehicles that should spark any hybrid fan's interest.

Chrysler's batteries were developed in coordination with GE under a DOE grant, and the batteries took a slightly different path than other lithium batteries, using two chemistry's rather than one - one for power and one for energy.

Along with $55 million dollars, GCG is reporting GE has also conveyed this battery research to A123Systems, a company of which GE now owns 9 percent. Aside from providing batteries for many Toyota Prius conversions, A123 also developed lithium batteries for Volt testing.

This dual lithium chemistry could be the key to the widespread concerns regarding lithium longevity, especially in hybrid cars. Hopefully, this isn't just pre-IPO hype.

Another Volt supplier picked

Despite merger and bankruptcy talk, Volt moving forward

GM has signed a $50 million contract with Buehler Motor Inc. to to provide customized auxiliary water pumps for the Chevy Volt and other unnamed hybrid vehicles. Under the contract Buehler will provide GM with 12-watt and 50-watt pumps that will circulate coolant through the Volt's subsystems according to the DetroitNews.

Fortunately, despite a massive focus on the Chrysler merger, GM is still pushing their future product plans forward.

Toyota Prius: US automakers can't handle the truth

US automakers can't compete?

According to analysts that follow Japanese automakers, the Toyota Prius, king of hybrid cars, has become a strongly profitable vehicle for Toyota. It also helps drive consumers into Toyota dealerships.

Yet, not one US automaker has concrete plans to challenge the Prius.

Sure, GM plans to leapfrog the Prius with the Chevy Volt, but that's a plug-in Prius contender. Most US cars won't be plug-ins for at least two decades. Moreover, according to Congressional testimony, by 2015 GM hopes to have sold a total of 200,000 Volts. That's not per year. That's in total. In 2015 Toyota will be selling more than 200,000 Prius hybrids per year.

Obviously, GM should pursue the Volt with great vigor, eventually, it will be a huge success. Nonetheless, can GM and the rest of the Big 3 survive the next several years without a direct challenge to the Toyota Prius?

Forget hybrid batteries, let's focus on composites

Time to move composites out of concepts

Yesterday, I blogged on one of my favorite out of the box thinking autos, the Aptera plug-in hybrid. Yet, it isn't really the plug-in hybrid technology that inspires, instead, its the lightweight and super strong composites that make up the Aptera's body.

And composites aren't just about auto design and lightweight, super strong bodies.

Applied Sciences Inc. and Pyrograf Products Inc. believe that carbon fiber, another composite material, could offer battery-powered vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt, better range by making lithium ion batteries significantly lighter.

The role of composites in the automobile is just emerging. Finish: Forget hybrid batteries, let's focus on composites

Australian Volt stretching supplies?

In Europe and Australia by 2012

In late 2010, the Chevy Volt will begin to hit dealers in the US. While GM has not yet confirmed any numbers, 2010 will probably see only a few thousand Volt units.

2011 should see a large increase in Volt production. Still, some reports have put the first full year of Volt sales at 25,000 units, ramping up to 60,000 units by 2012 or 2013.

That's hardly enough Volts, it seems, to fulfill even US demand. Yet, by 2012 GM will also be selling Volt variants in Europe and Australia.

When this is coupled with testimony that GM gave before Congress indicating that less than 200,000 Volts will be on US roads by 2015, is it fair to ask if GM is spreading early, limited Volt supplies too thinly?

Why I might buy GM stock

Cuz you have to believe in something

In the past I bought a hybrid car when it really didn't make financial sense. I just don't drive enough. I've spent the last several years building my life around LA's public transportation system.

You see, after 9/11, I decided my life could never be the same. I had to end my foreign oil footprint. Plus, ending foreign oil dependency would have a huge impact on global warming.

Still, I needed a new car. So, I bought a hybrid. Not to gloat. Not because of global warming. Because I believe only technology will end foreign oil dependency.

Today, I'm thinking about buying stock in GM, even though it also might not make financial sense.

Why? Have I lost my mind? FINISH: Why I might buy GM stock

Biggest Chevy Volt threat: GM stock. Time for fans to buy?

Don't call the Chevy Volt a concept

Spend any time around GM's top Volt engineers and one thing is clear: this vehicle will happen. Sure there are still questions about production capabilities and costs. Technology, however, will not prevent the Chevy Volt from becoming a reality.

Thus, while Volt sales in and of themselves can't save GM, the Volt is GM's icon for change. Proof that GM can compete, even beat, any other automaker. Proof that GM's engineering, quality, and reliability are just as good as any other automaker.

Unfortunately, despite loans, Wall Street credit bailouts, and huge plug-in tax incentives for the Volt, those in the stock market are starting to believe that the Volt can't come quick enough to save GM. Hence, GM's stock price has touched lows not seen in several decades.

The other day I read a GM-Volt post that finished with: Long live the US, GM and the Volt. Well, if you believe that then isn't it time to put your money where you mouth is and buy GM stock?

Do automakers suck?

Nissan's electric concept at the Paris Auto Show

As the Fall days have grown darker, so has my mood. Massive bailouts, loans and tax incentives for big, failing US businesses.

Where's my massive bailout? Where's my cheap loan?

I know. I know. The bailout isn't a bailout of Wall Street. It's a bailout of main street. The bailout ensures than one day I can again finance a car that makes no sense in the modern world.

Yet, soon, we'll have Toyota Prius derivatives, including a plug-in version, and the the Honda Insight hybrid. Even better, we'll have the Chevy Volt built here in America. There's hope, right?

Yes. A tiny, little sliver of hope.

However, it'll still be at least a decade before these vehicles, combined, account for even 10 percent of US sales, probably longer. Maybe far longer. In today's digital, business at the speed of light world, automakers are giant, super slow oafs. Dinosaurs. All of them.

Can automakers change? Or, is it time to accept that creative destruction is the only way forward?

Opel Volt coming to Europe in 2011

The Opel FLEXtreme Concept

The E Flex Drive that powers the Chevy Volt will make its way into Europe, as an Opel, in 2011 according to multiple reports. While the final design of the concept has not been hammered out, it will not look like the Volt. Nonetheless, it could share some Volt design cues that were driven by the aerodynamics.

In the past, GM has displayed the Opel FLEXtreme as one design idea for the Opel E Flex vehicle. However, this design might be as plausible in the wind tunnels as was the original Chevy Volt concept.

In the interim, GM is going to be working with European leaders to develop plug-in stations for the modern urbanites in Europe without garage access.

No Big 3 Prius challengers in Paris?

The only Prius challenger for years?

Duh? The Chevy Volt, right?

Not any time soon. Maybe not ever.

A significant percent of Americans simply can't plug-in, won't want to plug-in, or won't want to front the extra money up front for the benefits of electric vehicles.

Ultimately, there will be plenty of consumers for both the Toyota Prius and the Chevy Volt, but they are two very different technologies for two different consumer segments.

Yet, Toyota is also developing plug-in hybrids to challenge the Volt. Are GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrids really a challenge to the Prius? Are 20,000 Ford Focus hybrids a challenge to the Prius? And what about Chrysler?

In recent months, both Hyundai and Honda have committed to selling 100,000's of thousands of hybrid cars each, per year, within the next several years. Shouldn't the Big 3 be doing the same?

Chevy Volt: Can it change perception of GM?

The Volt made a recent publicity stop at NASCAR

For many Americans, the Chevy Volt has become the savior of the US auto industry. A made in America foreign oil dependency freedom fighter. And, one day, it might just be that, but not any time soon.

In the interim, however, can it change the perception of GM and its ability to build quality automobiles?

Finish: Chevy Volt: Can it change perception of GM?

Chrysler's EVs more developed than Volt?

A Dodge plug-in concept at NAIAS 2007

Has Chrysler killed Chevy Volt hype?

Since the Volt debut in 2007, GM has reiterated over and over how they were accomplishing something almost inconceivable. Concept to reality in little more than 3 years. And, not just your standard concept. A range extended electric vehicle.

Yet, all the while, Chrysler has been quietly keeping pace. Of course, that statement isn't fully true. Chrysler's plug-in vehicles probably won't be launched as unique plug-in only models, such as the Volt. So, Chrysler's results are not as impressive.

Nevertheless, Chrysler's quick pace demonstrates that plug-ins aren't that hard to build. The real issue for both Chrysler and GM is, as it has always been, can these vehicles be powered with reliable, cost effective batteries that can be economically produced in great numbers? Unfortunately, that still won't be known even in late 2010 when these vehicles launch.

Plug-ins: Much ado about fuel economy credits?

Tesla hoping to sell its CAFE credits

Foreign oil dependency is choking America, literally, to death. Thus, I've advocated for hybrid cars, even when they don't make financial sense. It's an investment in the future and next generation technologies, such as plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Fortunately, these days, every automaker is planning some kind of plug-in, and that's a good thing. Yet, I worry.

In recent weeks, the EPA designation of plug-ins has become an important issue. Plug-in vehicles, like the flex-fuel credits of today, will provide important fuel economy credits for automakers, as flex fuel credits expire.

So, if GM only sells 60,000 Chevy Volts in 2013, those Volts will provide a significant number of fuel economy credits for GM's less efficient vehicles. Today, just a few flex fuel credits per vehicle enable automakers to, essentially, violate CAFE without penalty.

Thus, despite good intentions, flex fuel credits have increased US foreign oil dependency. And, particularly if gas prices decline a few quarters over the next few years, it seems plug-in credits could do the same. Is it time to end all fuel economy loopholes, I mean credits?

We all want plug-in hybrids, but can we afford them?

Honda has it right?

Plug-in vehicles. It's the new darling of the automotive world. It's the future. The saviour of the US auto industry. Still, when does this future make cost-effective sense for BOTH consumers and automakers?

For the past few months Hybridcarblog has run a survey asking 'What is the most you would pay for the Chevy Volt'?. Almost half those responding, 47 percent, don't want to pay more than $20,000 for a such vehicle. Another 40 percent won't pay more than $30,000.

Yet, a vehicle like the Chevy Volt will probably cost about $40,000. Certainly, at first, a $7,500 plug-in tax credit will help. Still, how likely is that after the credit expires that GM can sell the Volt for $30,000 AND make a profit?

Is the plug-in revolution really just right around the corner? In what year will the first automaker make a million plug-in vehicles per year? Are cheap hybrid cars, such as the Honda Insight, a much better solution in the next 10 years than plug-ins?

New plant - Volt hype crushes Cruze

Can't get no respect

Today GM announced that it would invest $370 million in a new engine plant in Flint, MI to build engines for the Chevy Cruze and the Chevy Volt. Of course, you wouldn't have known the Cruze engine was also being built at this plant if you only read many of the headlines covering this story. For example, it took 6 paragraphs for the DetroitNews to even mention the Cruze. Ironically, however, the plant will probably be making many more Cruze engines than Volt engines for many years.

$7,500 plug-in hybrid tax credit passes Senate - Too favorable to Volt?

Only about battery capacity, not actual EV range, nor real world fuel economy?

The Senate has passed a new tax bill that will provide tax credits for plug-in hybrid vehicles ranging from $2,500 - $7,500, depending on the vehicle's battery capacity. To be eligible for the credit, such plug-in vehicles must store at least 6 kWh's of electricity.

So, battery capacity, not actual EV range nor real world fuel economy, is how Congress judges plug-in quality? Does that really make sense?

Finish: $7,500 plug-in hybrid tax credit passes Senate - Too favorable to Volt?

Bob Lutz ready to say goodbye to Volt 'mali-mules'

Lutz originally wanted the Volt to be a pure electric vehicle

On Tuesday I was part of a group interview with Bob Lutz whom told reporters that originally he wanted the Chevy Volt to be a pure electric vehicle. However, John Lauckner, GM vice president of global program management, convinced Lutz that a range extended vehicle would be far better as it would overcome "range anxiety", which Lauckner believed would limit the success of the Volt.

Lutz also reiterated that he greatly dislikes the design of the Toyota Prius calling it "reverse chic" - so ugly that it has become cool.

More interesting, however, Lutz expressed his surprise that so many still doubt lithium's reliability. Lutz stated that tests are indicating that the Volt's battery pack could be far more reliable than originally expected, mitigating potential warranty costs to GM.

Finally, the mali-mule - the original Volt test vehicles - are soon to be replaced. By the end of the year GM hopes to have about 50 Cruze-mules that will be outfitted with far more E Flex electric drive components.

Why 40 is the Chevy Volt's Magic Number

GM's top execs flank the Volt at GM's Centennial Celebration

40 miles of electricity. Sounds pretty arbitrary, right? Wrong.

Yesterday, I wrote Volt EV Range: Is 40 enough? Would 80 be better? Should GM increase the Volt's EV range as battery technology develops?

More important, can the Chevy Volt really achieve 40 miles of electric range?

Finish: Why 40 miles is the Chevy Volt's magic number

Plug-in Tax Credits: Toyota in shock?

To offer less than 6 kWh of electricity?

Yesterday, Robert Wimmer, the National Manager of Energy and Environmental Research for Toyota Motor North America, lobbied the Senate Energy and National Resources committee not to pass new legislation that will give tax breaks to the Chevrolet Volt, or other plug-in hybrids with batteries that hold at least six kilowatt-hours of electricity.

"Toyota believes this approach is counterproductive," said Wimmer in a statement before the committee. "It will discourage manufacturers from developing and consumers from purchasing 'blended' plug-ins that are affordable to the greatest number of consumers."

So, the plug-in Prius won't offer 6 kWh worth of electricity? Is it even worth it to make a plug-in hybrid if it doesn't offer at least 6 kWh? Has GM's Volt actually rattled Toyota?

Chevy Volt production-ready interior

A little glimpse of the Volt interior

More photos coming tomorrow.

Chevy Volt Fuel Economy in Question

Volt fuel economy with the AC on?

How is the EPA going to assess the fuel economy of the Chevy Volt? That's a good question, as the EPA doesn't have a methodology yet for plug-in hybrid vehicles. When they do, will it be accurate?

According to GM, the Chevy Volt will achieve 40 miles of electric power before using gasoline to generate new electricity to power the Volt. But, what happens if you drive fast? Accelerate fast? What if you are a heavy AC user?

Finish: Chevy Volt fuel economy in question

30 miles of electricity for Ford plug-in, 40 for Prius?

Ready now?

I was reading through the Automotive News today, and I came across an article discussing what the Big 3 could do if Congress provides $25 billion in loans to automakers. Currently, any projects using loan money have to achieve a 25 percent gain in fuel economy.

Thus, the Automotive News suggested that Ford convert the Escape and Mariner hybrids into plug-in hybrid vehicles. According to Ford, Automotive News states, a lithium-powered plug-in Escape hybrid can achieve 30 miles of electricity and average 80 mpg.

If true, one would assume that the Toyota Prius, with similar lithium technology, would probably achieve 40 miles of electricity and average about 100 mpg.

Yet, parallel plug-in hybrids have been considered an inferior technology to series plug-in hybrids by many since the launch of the Chevy Volt, but is such an assumption premature (Not the GM necessarily believes this, as GM is developing both plug-in hybrid powertrains)?

Hybrid aerodynamics driven by fuel economy

Why does it look like the Prius?

The Toyota Prius is the king of hybrid cars. Yet, there are many that hate its design. Thus, now that the world has seen images of both the Honda Insight and the Chevy Volt, there is even more hate in the hybrid world, as these hybrid vehicles have come to resemble the Prius in many ways.

Honda's Chuck Schifsky, a Honda spokesman, adds some insight into this issue. Regarding the Insight design Schifsky recently went on record and stated, "It was done that way because it was the most aerodynamic design, and we were going for fuel economy."

Thus, the Clarity fuel cell vehicle and the CR-Z, another future Honda hybrid, will also share many of these ' prius' design cues. These vehicles, just as the Volt, however, do not resemble the Prius because of its sale's success, but because of an aerodynamic focus on fuel economy.

Chevy Volt hated by bipolar America

Too Prius like?

As if that's a bad thing. Yet, the Internet and the Chevy Volt Nation are up in arms. This is not the Chevy Volt that debuted at NAIAS in 2007.

"Huge disappointment," and an "unlikely love child of a one-nighter involving GM's concept and the Prius" are some of the criticisms that AutoObserver reported.

For many of these critics the Volt was the anti-Prius, an American-made bad ass electric muscle car that would put America back on top of the auto world. A vehicle that would allow Americans to continue to act like Americans, but without the guilt. We'd no longer waste gas, instead we'd waste electricity, which is so much more 21st century.

But, now the Volt looks too much like the Prius. Well, some times intelligence needs to trump vanity. Finish: Chevy Volt hated by bipolar America

2 battery packs for every Volt

Battery replacements in the warranty

Thus far, whenever GM discusses the ongoing lithium ion battery tests for the Chevy Volt, it's all sunshine. Yet, GM is also assuming that many Volts will need to have their lithium battery packs replaced while under warranty. But, no worries, lithium costs will quickly come down, at least that's GM's position, but is GM assuming too much, or demonstrating bold leadership?

Finish: 2 battery packs for every Volt

Hypester Chevy Volt "most valuable" GM brand

A fiberglass replica of the Chevy Volt

Last week I saw a few photos on the Internet of the Chevy Volt from the Transformers movie, but I decided not to post them. While I have very high hopes for the Volt, the production body of the Volt doesn't interest me nearly as much as a fully functional Volt chassis and electric drive, especially a fiberglass replica body.

And, while fiberglass might not be transparent, this move felt like a fully transparent PR move to again incite the Volt Nation. GM had to know these photos would leak.

Recently, InsideLine quoted Troy Clarke, GM North American President and GM Group VP, stating that the Chevy Volt is the "most valuable brand in the GM portfolio. At an awareness level, the Volt obviously has consideration intent (based on 80,000 leads submitted on GM's Web site)," he said.

While the Volt is arguably GM's most important brand, is there a danger that GM might over-hype the Volt?

US automakers are "deserving" of $50 billion in loans?

Lutz claims Big 3 "deserving" of $50 billion in loan guarantees

I want the Chevy Volt to succeed. I want the Big 3 to survive, but I want them to survive because they are solid, quality businesses. But are they?

'We make what consumers want,' the Big 3 have maintained, as their market share has perpetually declined as millions of consumers switched to more fuel efficient vehicles from the likes of Honda and Toyota.

And while hybrids didn't make sense to US automakers, despite tax payer funding, Toyota turned their hybrid cars into a long term business model, even though "nobody could have foreseen $4.00 gas prices."

Perhaps the Big 3 are deserving of these loans, but aren't the American people also deserving of some honest accountability? Some real responsibility?

Fuel economy: Double jeopardy for tax payers?

Just let Congress manage our economy?

Yesterday, I blogged on how the city of Flint is providing millions in tax breaks to GM to help fund the Chevy Volt, and GM is also seeking millions from the state as well. Likewise, GM is also requesting part of $50 billion in low interest, government backed loans to help in the conversion to vehicles with better fuel economy, such as smaller vehicles and hybrid cars. And, when GM finally starts selling the Volt, it will probably need large tax incentives for consumers in order to make these vehicles affordable.

And, if Ford and Chrysler ever develop real plans to address fuel economy, they'll need just as much help.

Yet, the pain doesn't stop there. Automakers claim that CAFE will increase the price of all vehicles significantly. Thus, not only are tax payers committing billions in loans and tax breaks to Detroit, they're also going to have to pay more for the products their tax dollars are helping to fund.

Without doubt, US automakers provide great jobs for many Americans, but how did things get so screwed up? More important, can the US auto industry really be saved, or are we just delaying the inevitable?

City of Flint to help fund Chevy Volt. Next?

How much will those outside GM pay to fund the Volt?

GM needs a massive amount of money, or at least extremely cheap, government backed loans, to make the Chevy Volt a reality. But in addition to the Feds, the City of Flint has now committed millions in tax breaks to GM to help build a new plant for the Volt in Flint, despite the fact that many in Flint have already lost GM jobs. GM is also seeking millions from the state of Michigan as well. And, just to top it off, Congress will almost certainly provide tax credits for plug-in hybrids like the Volt as well.

Is this all a necessary evil? Is it not even evil, but standard for the auto industry? Is it just another example of the sad state of the US auto industry?

Can a company like Tesla become a player?

Has it already changed the auto industry?

GM's car guru, Bob Lutz, has stated that Tesla was a factor in the decision to move aggressively towards the Chevy Volt. Thus, if not for Tesla, would there even be a Volt?

Possibly, but without doubt, Tesla motivated GM to move faster towards vehicles such as the Volt. But back to Tesla.

Thus far, the automaker has over-promised and under delivered, though there are signs the company has turned a corner with deliveries finally reaching some consumers. Still, making a few thousand cars per year is far different than making hundreds of thousands per year.

Even if a company such as Tesla perfects its technology and manufacturing, can such an automaker become a major US automaker? Or is a buy out the only future for such companies?

GM's future: A convergence of synergies

Volt and Cruze will share engines

There has been a lot of buzz about GM's commitment to the Chevy Cruze, a small vehicle that could achieve 40 mpg on the highway.

I know. I know.

Highway fuel economy is far over-rated. The real question is, can this car get 30 mpg in the city?

Still, I don't want to hammer or to focus on the Cruze. It's a step in the right direction, but it's more than a step. The direct-injected, turbo-boosted engine that will power the Cruze, will be the same engine that powers the Chevy Volt. Likewise, it might also power the Vue - the same Vue that will soon come in a dual mode hybrid version and a plug-in hybrid version.

Finish: GM's future - A convergence of synergies