What do 100,000 Volts, Leafs or Prius hybrids per year really mean?

No impact on foreign oil dependence for 2 decades?

For several years now, Toyota has sold more than 100,000 Prius hybrids per year in the US. In fact, Toyota has sold more than 1 million hybrid cars in the US alone.

Yet, what effect have one million hybrids had on US foreign oil dependence? None.

Soon, GM will launch the highly-anticipated Chevy Volt, yet it might be a decade before GM is selling 100,000 Volts per year. Likewise, late this year Nissan will begin US production of the Leaf electric car. When Nissan's new production facility is fully operational, it will produce up to 150,000 Leafs per year.

Yet again, what impact will these vehicles have on foreign oil dependence?

Unfortunately, according to numerous studies, ALL electric vehicle sales in the US, combined, won't have any noticeable impact on foreign oil dependence for probably another TWO decades, and even then the effect might still be marginal.

Certainly, automakers have to start electrifying the automobile somewhere, and the Prius, Volt and Leaf are all noble and important products. Nonetheless, their impact upon the environment and foreign oil dependence will remain meaningless for decades.

Is this really the best that America can do?

Buy a Volt in DC, Michigan or California, only, to start

Politicians, Entertainers and Home-Staters

When the Chevy Volt hits showrooms at the end of this year, it will only be available in Michigan, California and Washington, DC.

No word yet on final roll out plans for the rest of the US.

What if you can't afford a Chevy Volt?

A fantastic car for 5 percent of car consumers?

In recent months I've been criticized many times for being too critical of US automakers. Ironically, a year ago or so, I was criticized many times for being too supportive of the Chevy Volt.

So, what's my deal?

Ultimately, I became interested in hybrid cars after 9/11 because I decided that America's foreign oil dependence was beginning to cause far more harm than good for America and the world. Thus, hybrid cars presented a great way to take immediate action today, while investing in the potential of fuel cell vehicles and all other battery-powered vehicles for tomorrow.

For this reason, I was very supportive of the Chevy Volt at first. Yet, as time has passed from the debut of the Volt, I've realized that the Volt has almost become a distraction to my cause.

Finish reading: What if you can't afford a Chevy Volt. Thinking about foreign oil dependence

Toyota powertrain exec admires Chevy Volt

A sensible approach to plug-ins?

In a recent interview with CNN, Bill Reinert, Toyota's head of advanced powertrain research, explains that Toyota is not going to rush into pure electric cars. A combination of costs and technological limitations ensure, according to Reinert, that EVs are still far from mass consumer adoption.

Therefore, underwhelming EV consumers with expensive technology that falls short of expectations could slow EV penetration long term, according to Reinert.

However, in the interview Reinert does single out the Chevy Volt as a more sensible approach to pure EVs because it provides a realistic solution to range anxiety.

10 percent green equals 100 percent greenwashed

A meaningless hybrid?

If you're at the Detroit Auto Show, or following the coverage, you might think the automotive world has really changed. All our troubles are behind and new green vehicles, particularly hybrids and plug-in vehicles, are set to make everything better.

Yet, in ten years less than 10 percent of America's automotive fleet will be hybrid or plug-in - at best - according to almost every automotive analyst and researcher.

Anyway, this year in Detroit the Ford Fusion hybrid was awarded The North American Car of the Year. And it's deserving. Everything about the Fusion hybrid is great, except for sales. Sure, almost 30,000 Ford consumers bought a Fusion hybrid last year, however, over 400,000 Ford consumers bought a gas-guzzling Ford F150.

And next year in Detroit, the Chevy Volt will probably win The North American Car of the Year. Yet, the Volt will probably move even less units than did the Fusion hybrid in its first year. Even more alarming, by 2020, according to GM executives like Bob Lutz, plug-ins like the Volt will still only appeal to about 5 - 10 percent of consumers.

Today, even hybrid king Toyota only offers the third most fuel efficient fleet in America - despite selling 200,000 hybrids - thanks to its many gas-guzzler sales.

Sadly, in tens years the US auto fleet won't be much more fuel efficient than it is today, and green vehicles will still be just a niche, but at least we'll get to enjoy a decade of superb greenwashing along the way.

GM produces first Volt battery pack

Two of the Volt's first test batteries

GM's Brownstown Battery Pack Assembly Plant produced its first lithium-ion battery pack for the Chevy Volt today.

GM CEO Ed Whitacre said at the event that a few Volts might be sold before November, when the Volt is to officially go on sale.

Overall, Volt production will be limited, at least through the first full year of production, but should eventually reach about 60,000 Volts per year.

2010: The big questions

The rubber finally hits the road

2010. Here we come.

While 2010 isn't going to be quite as significant for the hybrid market as I would have expected a few years ago, there are a few interesting stories developing:

1.) Will any hybrid, aside from the Prius, sell 50,000 units in one year?
2.) Can the Honda CR-Z hybrid reinvigorate Honda's hybrid sales?
3.) Will the Hyundai Sonata hybrid make it to America, and how will the Sonata hybrid compare to the Toyota Camry hybrid and the Ford Fusion hybrid in terms of price and fuel economy?
4.) What will be Toyota's next dedicated hybrid, and how many other hybrids will Toyota announce, debut, etc?
5.) Finally, after years of hype the Chevy Volt will go on sale. How many units will GM produce in 2010? Will there be any delays? Final pricing, options?

Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

The king of hybrid cars

For years now GM has been on the verge of toppling Toyota's hybrid cars according to GM's Bob Lutz. The dual mode hybrid powertrain was to be more sophisticated. The BAS mild hybrid was to be cheaper.

Neither has been competitive.

Might all that change when the Chevy Volt beats Toyota to market with a plug-in hybrid vehicle?

How is that even possible, some might ask? How could GM beat the king of hybrid cars to the plug-in hybrid market?

To answer that question, one needs to step back in time several years.

Finish: Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

Only 17 percent of consumers might pay extra to plug-in

Forever a niche vehicle at best?

Haven't had time to fully read the latest plug-in hybrid report by Pike Research, but I just finished CNET's review. Overall, the report suggests that only 17 percent of US consumers might be willing to pay a premium for plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

And, if plug-ins do 'take off', they will probably be short range plug-in hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid rather than the Chevy Volt, or short range pure EVs, as plug-in vehicles with smaller battery packs will be more cost-viable for the majority of consumers.

As I blogged early this week in Great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug to hybrid cars?, this report seems to also suggest that conventional hybrid cars will make a more appealing buying case to the majority of US consumers for at least the next few decades.

Along those lines, since full hybrids such as the Toyota Prius can so easily be converted into plug-in hybrids, wouldn't such vehicles more immediately tackle global warming and foreign oil dependency today, while providing a 'cash for plug-in conversion' option tomorrow?

Plug-in Prius in about 2 years

Still basically on track

Toyota will sell a plug-in version of the Toyota Prius in about 2 years. According to Toyota, the plug-in version will be affordable, and the automaker hopes to sell several tens of thousands of these plug-in hybrids.

The new plug-in Prius will offer about 12 - 14 miles of EV range, dependent upon road conditions before needing to utilize its gasoline engine. In contrast, GM's Chevy Volt will offer about 40 miles of EV range, dependent upon driving conditions.

However, the Prius will come with a cheaper price tag than the Volt. Still, initially, the Volt will qualify for a larger federal tax credit - at least the first 200,000 Volts - so pricing might be closer than real world costs thanks to the credits.

8,000 to 60,000 Volts per year

Are you feeling lucky?

Today, as expected, GM announced its investment of $336 million to upgrade its Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant for production of the Chevy Volt, bringing GM's total Volt investment to $700 million.

While greats news for Volt fans, you'll have to be pretty lucky if you want to buy a Volt when it goes on sale in late 2010. According to the DetroitNews, GM will produce 8,000 Volts in 2011 and eventually increase production to as many as 60,000 Volts per year.

When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

Toyota the plug-in naysayer?

During a period of more than 3 years Toyota tested about 150 lithium-powered plug-in Prius hybrids - a fleet still larger than GM's current Chevy Volt fleet - logging more than 1 million real world miles in almost every type of driving condition imaginable. The lithium batteries used proved safe and reliable, but still cost-ineffective.

Next month, Toyota will produce another 350 plug-in hybrids, followed by another 150 early next year, for further testing. This time however, the goal isn't based on safety and reliability. Instead, Toyota's new goal is to provide the most cost-effective plug-in hybrid package based on real world driving needs and conditions.

Over the last few years Toyota has claimed that they would produce plug-in hybrids as soon as the technology was ready, and for Toyota 'ready' means cost-effective in addition to safe and reliable. Coincidentally, Toyota knows a little something about the cost-effectiveness of new technologies.

Today, about 70 - 80 percent of new car customers are interested in purchasing hybrid cars, a segment dominated by Toyota. With such high interest, why is market share still only about 3 percent? According to consumer surveys it all boils down to costs, and consumer surveys on plug-in hybrids tell a similar story.

So, why is Toyota bashed for stating the obvious?

Finish: When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

I think I love the Converj

Volt's bigger, better little brother

Not much green action so far today. Ran into Adam Carolla checking out the new Cadillac Converj, GM's luxury version of the Chevy Volt. For all you KROQ'ers, I gave a shout out to Mr.Bertram!

Anyway, I know the Converj isn't a car for the masses. It never will be, regardless of how well Voltec costs scale. Still, this is an impressive package.

I can't help but want one. I think I'll start saving my pennies now, or better yet, my lunch money. Shoot, I might even give up my beer money.

Sure, the Volt has more long term potential, but in the short term I can't find any reason why the Converj couldn't completely dominate the luxury plug in market.

Can GM take it to the next level?

Unprecedented green movement

GM showed off, of course, the Chevy Volt and the Chevy Cruze today. Not a lot of new, groundbreaking info regarding the Volt, although yesterday I learned that the Volt is more aerodynamic than both the Toyota Prius and the Honda Insight.

The Chevy Cruze looks like a real winner.

Overall GM's big message was its commitment to green technologies. Sounds great in theory, but can GM turn this theory into reality? For instance, can GM become a fleet fuel economy leader, rather than pulling up the rear as it does today?

Small, Toyota Prius-fighting GM hybrids still a possibility

GM's hybrid story still developing

Sure, the Chevy Volt is the poster child for GM's clean and green efforts. And, even though GM doesn't like to call the Volt a hybrid, the Volt is also GM's marquee hybrid. But that doesn't mean GM's hybrid story is anywhere near the end.

Yesterday, I learned that GM isn't just redeveloping its upcoming lithium-powered BAS hybrid drive, nor just downsizing its dual mode hybrid powertrain for small SUVs, such as the phased out Saturn Vue. In fact, according to sources inside the General, GM is also working on a new hybrid drive derived from the dual mode drive, but redeveloped for small vehicles, including 4 cylinder cars.

Of course, it's possible that such a hybrid drive will never hit the market. Still, the possibility of small GM hybrid cars that could directly compete with the Toyota Prius is a positive sign. Always good to have your eggs in a few different baskets.

Chevy Volt EV range and fuel economy updated, Part II

38 mpg in the city?

Earlier this week Edmunds.com suggested a few new things about the Chevy Volt that I covered in Chevy Volt EV range and fuel economy updated. First, Edmunds claimed that the Chevy Volt, once EV range expires, would only achieve about 38 mpg. Second, Edmunds claimed that for the average driver - 15,000 miles per year - the Volt would cost about the same as a 59 mpg vehicle to fuel per year.

Earlier today I was at a GM sponsored media event and I brought these issues up to some GM reps. I was told that the numbers put forth by Edmunds are pure speculation.

Of course, that doesn't mean that Edmunds isn't necessarily speculating up the right tree. Only reality will tell. Anyway, this is an angle I'm hoping to further pursue in the next couple of days at the LA Auto Show.

Chevy Volt for California only in 2010

Can it shock the the Golden State?

The Chevy Volt should meet its late 2010 production date, however, the Volt will only be available for sale in California until sometime in 2011.

Overall, seems like a fairly smart move. California is the by far leading state for the purchase of hybrid cars.

Chevy Volt EV range and fuel economy updated

The Volt's lithium-ion battery pack

GM finally confirmed that the Chevy Volt will utilize an 8 gallon fuel tank to supplement the Volt's EV range.

So, what does that mean for the Volt's real world range and fuel economy?

Once the lithium ion battery pack drops down to 30 percent of its full charge, then the 1.4 liter engine begins generating electricity to power the Volt. The battery, however, is never recharged in this state. Still, in this state the Volt can travel at least another 300 miles, and then the battery has to be recharged. That will take about 8 hours at 120V, although a special 240V supply could drop that charge time down to about 3 hours.

But that won't matter as long as you only drive 40 miles or less, right?

Not necessarily. According to the latest reports, "Most people will get less than 40 miles. " And, once electric range is used and the Volt is dependent upon its gasoline engine, the Volt's city fuel economy will probably be around 38 mpg.

Volt set to charge GM's IPO

Time to put the past to rest?

Will next year provide a big boost in auto sales? The kind of boost that can turn losses into profits for much of the US auto industry? The kind of sales that could make a GM IPO at the end of 2010 enticing to investors?

Probably not according to a forecast from Fitch Ratings. While there should be a small bump upwards in US sales - around 11.1 million total unit sales - it probably won't be big enough to result in the cash flow needed to fix GM's balance sheet.

But, could the Chevy Volt be a wild card in that forecast?

What better way to head into an IPO than with positive buzz, especially the kind of green and foreign-oil fighting buzz that only the official release of the Chevy Volt can provide? It's unique. It's next gen technology. It's green and it's ready to launch 'at the end of 2010'.

Finish: Chevy Volt set to charge GM's IPO

Prius and Volt will share GoodYear Assurance Tires

The tire for hybrids

The GoodYear Assurance Fuel Max tire will become the standard tire of the 2010 Toyota Prius. Additionally, reports indicate the Assurance will also be the tire of the Chevy Volt.

Buy a Volt only in some areas?

Limited geographic availability?

At the LA Auto Show GM will release its sale's plans for the Chevy Volt, and it appears the Volt will not be available in all GM markets. Of course, that shouldn't really come as a surprise, since not all GM dealerships will be initially trained to service the Volt.

Besides, demand for the Volt will far out-weight supplies until GM can seriously ramp up production, and that might not happen until the second generation Volt is launched.

Chevy Volt battery testing going very well

On track for its 2010 launch

GM held a press conference today largely focused on the status of Chevy Volt battery testing. With more than 80 Volts on the road and 300 Volt battery packs under test, results have so far been excellent.

Thus far more than 1/4 million test miles have been completed, including hot weather and mountain testing - critical driving conditions for battery-powered vehicles. So far, the Volt has performed as expected.

Nonetheless, there have been some minor issues.

For instance noise, vibration and harshness are proving a bit more difficult than expected, although that's not unusual. Today's hybrid cars have experienced similar issues. More important, GM expects to resolve these noise problems.

Likewise, the Volt's battery chemistry has been undergoing minor tweaks as testing has identified small issues. Cell chemistry is on its 4th iteration, although all updates have been very minor. More important, there will be no further iterations or updates. Overall, the battery pack is well protected and the cells have worked perfectly thus far.

Ultimately, GM expects the battery pack to last at least 10 years, however, local weather and driving conditions could lengthen the life span of the battery pack according to GM.

Best Plug-ins: EVs, Range Extended EVs or Plug-in hybrids

Range extended EVs are better?

Just finished watching one of the latest Chevy Volt YouTube videos on the virtues of range extended EVs versus pure EVs, a topic that tens of billions in federal funds could soon be built around.

So, what's the best plug-in vehicle? Which plug-in vehicle is a legitimate game-changer?

Let's imagine it's 2012. Numerous plug-in vehicles are available for sale. Which one is best? A short range plug-in hybrid, such as a Toyota Prius plug-in, or a full electric vehicle, such as the Nissan Leaf? Or, how about a combination of the two, such as a Chevy Volt?

Finish: Best Plug-ins: EVs, Range Extended EVs or Plug-in hybrids

Cadillac Converj could be Volt's best friend

Ready to plug in this Cadillac?

I'm a fan of the Chevy Volt, a pretty big fan actually - at least in the technology powering the Volt. Yet, in the next decade Toyota will sell millions of hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius, as GM sells hundreds of thousands of Volts.

Unfortunately, the technology powering the Volt just won't be cost-effective for the masses until the 2020s, minimally, as the Prius turns into a profit machine and a gateway to Toyota plug-in vehicles.

However, the Volt's range extended plug-in drive might just be the perfect fit for Cadillac. And according to the DetroitNews, the Cadillac Converj plug-in hybrid has been approved by GM's board.

Already Toyota has proven that there is a market for luxury hybrid vehicles, and it seems the market for the Converj hybrid could be even far riper. American-made and green, this plug-in might just be the ultimate bling for luxury consumers.

Even better, a successful Converj could provide a big boost towards scaling down the Volt's costs, and I'd bet the Converj will be a wildly successful Cadillac and luxury vehicle.

Higher gas prices good for Volt, but what about GM?

When will it be profitable?

At a plug-in conference hosted by GM in Detroit last week, news of rising gas prices was seen as a good thing.

"Every penny added to the price of gas makes alternative power just a little more attractive," said Tony Posawatz, head of the Volt program. "If petroleum hit $150 a barrel and stays there, he and others agree, the low cost of electricity would make plug-ins fairly competitive on an operating cost basis."

So, what's good for the Chevy Volt is good for GM?

Let's say gas hits a sustained $150 per barrel and $4.00+ at the pump in 2011, during the first full year of Volt production. That would be good for GM? While such gas prices might make the Volt more competitive - after a $7500 tax credit - what about the Silverado, Traverse or Impala, for instance?

Today, GM's profits are not driven by fuel efficiency. Can the Chevy Cruze and a limited production Volt change the troubles GM felt during the gas spike of 2008?

It seems to me, what's good for the Volt is not good for GM, at least not any time soon. While higher gas prices might make the Volt more competitive, can higher gas prices really make GM more competitive and profitable without radical changes to their product lineup?

The perfect hybrid

And the winner is.....

Is the Toyota Prius the perfect hybrid? What if you added some extra batteries and a plug, would that make the Prius the perfect hybrid? How much electric range should it have, as much as possible?

Is 40 miles of electric range the key to plug-in hybrids, such as GM's Chevy Volt is expected to provide?

According to GM's research 90 percent of commutes average less than 40 miles. But, what does 'average' really mean? Isn't it possible that many people drive much shorter distances most days per week, but on one or two days per week, they drive much further?

If your average commute to and from work is only 10 miles or less, and the rest of your mileage is made up of much longer trips, what's the most efficient and cost effective hybrid to meet your needs? Is it a conventional hybrid, a short range plug-in hybrid or a long range plug-in hybrid?

Inevitably, it seems the perfect hybrid will be different for different consumers based on many different needs and wants. Still, is it simply premature to even discuss the perfect hybrid?

Plug-in Prius: The end of Toyota?

Simply too conservative?

The Chevy Volt will offer 40 miles of electric range. The plug-in Prius, on the other hand, will only offer 15 or 20 miles of electric range.

So, is the Volt twice as good as a plug-in Prius?

Transportation program director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, Roland Hwang, told the NYTimes, "From an environmental perspective, the more [electric] range the better."

So, what's Toyota's excuse for its lack of environmental commitment?

At this point in the development of plug-in hybrids, Toyota believes the key to success will be driven by cost-effectiveness. And lower range plug-in hybrids, Toyota believes, make it "easier to promise low cost and durability from the get-go," notes one expert in this informative Times article.

Is Toyota being too conservative with its plug-in hybrid technology?

Really, hasn't Toyota always been boring and conservative? Isn't that exactly what Prius haters dislike most about Toyota's top selling hybrid? Why would they approach plug-in hybrids any differently?

Will the Chevy Volt change GM?

Too many questions?

Since the debut of the Chevy Volt, I've gone from huge advocate to critic. It's not that I've given up on the Volt. If the battery is going to power the future of the automobile, then the Volt is critically important to GM's future.

Still, the Volt's game-changing potential will not be realized for at least a decade. Even then, any number of technological breakthroughs could quickly marginalize the importance of the Volt.

On the other hand, for the next 10 years, minimally, Toyota Prius sales will dwarf Volt sales. Likewise, with Prius-derivatives and other upcoming hybrid cars, Toyota might be selling 1 million hybrids per year as GM sells 50,000 Volts per year.

Ultimately, the Volt isn't a game changing vehicle for most Americans. Even according to Bob Lutz, it's only a vehicle for the 5 percent of Americans that are willing to pay a good chunk of extra cash to help the environment or to fight foreign oil dependence.

Of course, the same could be said of the Prius. However, the Prius will be a cash cow in the next decade. So, perhaps the same future awaits the Volt.

Until then, the Volt's game-changing abilities will be limited to perception. That alone could make the Volt an asset. Still, wouldn't a few cars on the government's Most Fuel Efficient list be even more game-changing?

GM's shock and awe campaign

Can GM move beyond its gas-guzzling image?

GM's new marketing campaign is going to "shock Americans into a new awareness about the competitiveness of GM products," according to Bob Lutz.

Via any method of comparison, GM believes, their products are as good as any other automaker. And, according to the latest quality rankings, etc., GM has a case.

But is marketing GM's best path to changing perception?

Several years ago, Bob Lutz claimed it would have been smart for GM to utilize just a fraction of one year's multi-billion dollar marketing budget to fund the production of a Toyota Prius-contender. Eventually, Lutz's realization evolved into the Chevy Volt, however, the Volt won't come close to challenging Prius sales for more than a decade, if ever.

While the Volt won't offer game-changing sale's numbers, it will drive a lot of green buzz, but will it bring new consumers to GM?

Ultimately, GM has made huge strides in quality, but according to a recent automotive supplier's survey, for instance, GM's innovation is still lacking. Obviously, the Volt will help address that issue, at least in terms of perception, but it seems to me that GM needs an innovative fuel efficient vehicle that can sell at least 100,000 units per year.

Possibly, the Chevy Cruze could be that product, however, the Cruze will never appear as innovative as the Prius. If GM can find a way to address that product gap, with a product and not marketing, I'd bet GM's perception problems would need far less marketing "shock".

Toyota won't rush into plug-in Prius rollout

Plug-in leases coming soon

Toyota is on track to lease 500 plug-in Prius hybrids before the end of this year. According to Toyota, these plug-in hybrids will offer an electric range of 12 miles, afterwhich the Prius functions pretty much like a standard 3rd generation Prius.

Thus far, Toyota has claimed that its lithium battery production has proven reliable and that its manufacturing process appears sound. Hopefully that trend holds true as production scales upward.

Nonetheless, Toyota is not in a race to bring such technology to the mass market.

"Although we like to be first to market with these technologies, it's more important that we are best to market," says Irv Miller, Toyota's environmental and public affairs group vice president in the U.S.

Unfortunately, no real word on costs just yet, although the plug-in Prius should be a good bit cheaper than the Chevy Volt thanks to its shorter EV range and smaller battery pack. And costs, according to recent polls, will be critical to successful PHEV adoption.

Still, does Toyota's plug-in Prius really mean much until Toyota can replace the NiMH batteries in the the current Prius with lithium? Isn't that the best path to economies of scale for lithium production and, eventually, plug-in vehicles?

Poll: Most Americans won't buy PHEVs

A Prius before plug-in conversion

Just build plug-in hybrids and they will come?

Not so according to another poll. Survey data by Pike Research finds that only 48 percent of Americans are willing to consider a plug-in hybrid vehicle that can achieve 40 miles of pure electric range.

However, 83 percent of those interested in buying such a plug-n hybrid would only be willing to buy a plug-in hybrid if it cost no more than 10 percent, or less, of the cost of a conventional gas powered vehicle. Unfortunately, many hybrid cars can't even come close to those economics, let alone far more expensive plug-in vehicles.

I guess Bob Lutz knows exactly what he's talking about when he claims that only 5 percent of US auto consumers are willing to buy plug-in hybrids such as the Chevy Volt.

Audi President claims Volt and EVs for "idiots" and "intellectual elite"

"A car for idiots"?

During an MSN interview Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen called the Chevy Volt "a car for idiots" largely because of its price premium. In fact, he claims the Volt will be a failure, but that the government will continue to subsidize the Volt because of its investment into GM.

Likewise, de Nysschen also slammed full electric cars saying, "They're for the intellectual elite who want to show what enlightened souls they are." However, he did concede that, theoretically, plug-in hybrids could offer advantages over diesel.

Mazda's waste of range extended EV technology?

Dependent upon hydrogen?

I've been following Mazda's hydrogen vehicles for some time simply because if hydrogen moves forward, Mazda might have the perfect interim technology: vehicles that can run on both hydrogen and gasoline. Thus, infrastructure problems could be somewhat alleviated.

However, an even better idea is Mazda's hybrid version of this concept. Much like GM's Chevy Volt, Mazda's hydrogen hybrid would utilize hydrogen to generate electricity to power its version of a series hybrid, or range extended EV, as GM prefers to call the technology. Thus, much like the Volt, many Mazda hydrogen hybrid drivers might never need liquid fuel.

Still, hydrogen, right?

Nonetheless, it is interesting that Mazda is, and has been, developing technology very similar to the Chevy Volt, yet there is no buzz. Moreover, while hydrogen plug-in hybrids are a good long term focus, why not more focus on a pure gasoline version to challenge the Volt in the short term?

Foreign oil dependence on TheStreet

Should plug-ins be the only path to foreign oil dependence?

TheStreet.com asked me to be a guest contributor recently, so they published Foreign Oil Versus the GM Volt this morning (although I didn't pick the title).

Ultimately, I've become very critical of the Chevy Volt compared to a year ago, when I was a fairly strong advocate. While I agree that it's important to bring this technology to market, such vehicles are decades away from making a major impact on America's energy paradigm.

More important, while GM can hype the petroleum-free driving of the Volt, such hype can't hide the fact that the Volt will be a limited production vehicle for most of the next decade and it won't be cost-effective and profitable until well into the 2020s. Thus, it will be 30 to 40 years before such plug-ins can provide a dramatic impact on ending foreign oil dependence.

So, I can't help but ask, how many more decades before foreign oil dependence leads to another bin Laden, another 9/11, another major gas spike?

Ultimately, the Volt isn't the source of my angst, my focus is purely on foreign oil dependence. Unfortunately, as the Volt moves closer to reality, it has become a tool for illustrating just how far away America is from tackling foreign oil dependence.

Energy independence: Tax credits for the Volt forever?

What's the Volt worth to America?

What's a better deal, the Chevy Volt or the Toyota Prius?

The Prius, by a long shot according to analysis by CNNMoney. Even if a Volt driver were to use only electricity to power the Volt and gas were to hit $5.00, the Prius is a still a better deal, even after the government's $7500 tax credit for the Volt.

Of course, in the real world, most Volt drivers will use gasoline, as range will easily fall under 30 miles for many drivers. In fact, aggressive Volt drivers might only achieve 10 miles of electric range according to some battery experts. For such drivers, the Volt would become terribly cost-ineffective.

Then again, the Prius isn't always the most cost-effective option for those seeking to buy a small car and save money on gas CNN points out. Yet, the Prius has still become a pretty big hit.

So, the Volt will probably be a hit as well, at least initially, but what happens after the tax credits for the Volt expire, and early adopters have filled their new technology fix?

Moreover, if the Prius and similar hybrid cars are only able to achieve just a few percent of market share, how are even less-cost effective plug-in vehicles supposed to significantly increase this share?

Is America on a real on a path to energy independence?

GM using Volt mileage to sell other vehicles

A good reason to buy a Chevy Equinox?

The Chevy Volt is still more than a year from hitting dealer showrooms, yet GM is already using the Volt to sell other GM vehicles.

This morning on the Cars.com website, I saw a new GM 230 ad, where the zero of the 230 is a plug-in socket, which then morphs into an ad for a 30 mpg Chevy Equinox.

Is that what petroleum-free driving is all about? Someday we're [GM] going to sell a limited production 230 mpg Volt, so go out and buy a 30 mpg Equinox today?

Is that really what the Volt is about?

Lutz on Fast Money: Dodging questions on Volt viability?

The Vice Chairman at his best

Last night Melissa Lee of Fast Money asked Bob Lutz how many units of the Chevy Volt GM expected to sell. Instead of answering, Lutz switched the conversation to how much better the Volt is than the competition. Fine. Maybe it is on a technological level.

Lee then followed up by asking when consumers can expect to reap the benefits of the Volt. After a $7500 tax credit, Lutz claimed at $32,500 the Volt wasn't too much more expensive than Toyota Prius. Still, he never explained how long it would take the Volt to recover its additional expense compared to a Prius or a similarly sized conventional vehicle.

Yet, what happens when tax credits run out? Moreover, recently it was reported that even at $40,000, GM is still losing money on every Volt sold, as the first Volts will be sold below cost. On top of that, GM eventually - someday - needs to start recovering the $1 billion plus spent on production costs.

Thus, tax payers - now owing 60 percent of GM - are selling the Volt at a loss, at a time that the Volt program is already $1 billion+ in debt, and taxpayers are also going to provide a $7500 tax credit to help sell a vehicle that can't help GM's bottom line for at least a decade?

And, not too much more expensive than the Prius?

I don't know. $10,000 + a $7500 tax credit sounds a little expensive to me, especially considering that the Toyota Prius is already a tough sell for the far majority of Americans. Most Americans want an even faster payback, an even cheaper clean and green option.

And, while I agree with Lutz's sentiments about petroleum-free driving, without enticing a majority of Americans, EVs will have no effect foreign oil dependency even if they achieve 1,000,000 mpg.

In 10 or 15 years, the Volt might have a chance of becoming a profitable, top-selling vehicle in America. In the interim, competitors will be developing a plethora of Volt competitors. Yet, none of them mean anything until millions of reliable and cost-effective battery packs can be produced per year.

Until then - even as early as next year - Toyota could be selling 1 million hybrid cars+ per year.

So which car, the Prius or the Volt, will offer the greatest reduction in petroleum over the next decade?

Is the Volt a Leaf over the Toyota Prius?

Leaf to get 367 mpg!?

So, which vehicle is better: the Chevy Volt, the Nissan Leaf or the Toyota Prius?

Not long after GM announced that the Volt might achieve 230 mpg in the city, Nissan announced that its Leaf electric vehicle would achieve 367 mpg in the city. So, obviously, the Leaf is the best, followed by the Volt, then the Prius, right?

If 80 percent of US drivers only drive 40 miles or less per day, then the Leaf, with its cheaper upfront costs, seems the clear winner. However, 100 miles of EV range might only mean 80 or 60 miles in the real world. Can you feel that range anxiety kicking in? What if you live in a condo or an apartment, or you have to park on the street?

Then the Volt can you take you further, for a cost, but it's a pretty big cost, or is it?

While Nissan is hoping to price the Leaf at $25,000 to $30,000, the Leaf is also reported to require a battery lease. How much will the lease cost? Even at $50 a month for 10 years, Leaf battery costs could more than pay for a lifetime's worth of fuel for the Prius, and you're still left with those nasty anxiety attacks.

Of course, the Leaf will reduce foreign oil dependency more than the Prius, thus the government will offer a big juicy tax credit. That alone could wipe out the cost of the battery lease, but again, where will you plug-in? What about that Thursday drive to the beach that is 120 miles there and back?

Well, it's back to the Volt, then, right? EV range for every day driving backed by a range-extending flex-fuel engine? Perfect, except for the fact that after a $7500 tax credit, you could still buy a Prius, pay for a lifetime's worth of fuel and still have several thousand dollars to spare.

Is the Volt a Leaf over the Prius? Not yet, but we'll review again once either Nissan or GM starts producing 100,000 of their plug-ins per year.

Volt to achieve 230 miles per gallon in the city

So now its all about city fuel economy?

230 miles per gallon. That's an impressive number for the Chevy Volt's city fuel economy. Still, I can't help but ask, Why is it when GM markets the fuel economy of all its other 30 mpg vehicles, it's always highway fuel economy that is the standard?

Nonetheless, there was never a doubt that the Volt would achieve stellar numbers on the EPA's city cycle. In the city, the Chevy Volt is essentially an electric vehicle. Makes me wonder, what's the fuel economy of the Tesla Roadster, since it NEVER uses gasoline?

Unlimited miles per gallon?

Inevitably, as electric vehicles become more common, it seems the EPA's methodology becomes more and more obsolete - if it already isn't obsolete.

Regardless, a consumer can still buy a 50 mpg Toyota Prius, pay for its lifetime fuel use, and still save thousands compared to the Volt - and that's after a $7500 tax credit. If the government doesn't extend tax credits for the Volt, it's cost-effectiveness becomes, well, nonexistent.

Hopefully, by the second or third generation Volt, GM will be able to bring down the costs of the Volt to make it more cost-effective for average Americans. In the interim 230 mpg will still provide a lot of bragging rights for Volt early adopters.

Chevy Volt's mileage numbers to be released tomorrow

Yet, you can't buy one for at least another year?

Tomorrow, GM will release the Volt's EPA mileage results, which I'm sure will be well over 100 mpg. Still, real world mileage of the Chevy Volt will be heavily dependent upon driving conditions, frequency of charging etc. Thus, the range of real world fuel economy of the Volt will be far greater than any other vehicle in history.

Regardless, the Volt's mileage results will be impressive, and they will provide oodles of hype and PR opportunities, despite the fact that the Volt is still more than a year from launch; despite the fact that the Volt will face several years of limited production that will limit Volt availability to just tens of thousands of consumers for the first few years, minimally.

Many, including this blogger, have claimed the Volt is far more about marketing than it is about reality, at least in the interim. Of course, however, it could be argued that the Toyota Prius followed the same developmental path. Then again, Toyota didn't spend years hyping the Prius before it launched.

Obviously, GM can use as much buzz as it can to change the negative perception of GM amongst many consumers. Is the extreme amount of marketing developed around the Volt the right path to a positive change in the perception of GM?

Battery grants: Tiptoeing around reality?

Will these save the US auto industry?

Just a short while ago, President Obama officially announced his plan to provide some $2 billion in grants to develop a battery industry in the US claiming that 'We failed far too long to invest in innovative technology'.

Such as the billion GM lost on the EV1? Such as the $1 billion + the Clinton Administration granted automakers to develop the next generation of fuel efficient vehicles? That's a couple a billion for innovative technology right there.

While I support these grants, other such efforts have been made in the past. They failed for one reason: cheap gasoline prices. Perhaps gasoline prices will be more supportive of such innovations this time around, but such a bet is still a significant gamble.

For instance, much of this gamble is being bet on plug-in vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt - a vehicle that is going to lose a massive amount of money for at least the next decade. According to the likes of JD Power, etc., such vehicles are going nowhere fast in the next decade. In fact, it will be decades before such vehicles represent at least 10 percent of America's auto fleet.

Even worse, ironically, according to the Volt's father, Bob Lutz, energy prices don't support hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius. Well, the economics of plug-ins like the Volt require significantly higher energy prices than conventional hybrids to achieve cost-effectiveness.

Are these battery grants really any different than what has been tried in the past? Ultimately, isn't innovative fuel efficient technology solely dependent upon energy prices?

Chevy Volt: Lutz's biggest blunder?

A big hit by 2021?

Bob Lutz hates the Toyota Prius.

Several years ago Lutz stated that GM could have easily developed a Prius-like hybrid using just a fraction of one year's marketing budget - since Lutz believed, maybe still believes, that the Toyota Prius was only a PR gimmick, not a real product. Instead, however, GM chose the latest gas-guzzler ads to invest its money.

But that wasn't enough for Lutz. Lutz had to prove the Prius was just a PR gimmick, but how? By leapfrogging the Prius of course. Don't build something to compete with the Prius, build something far better than the Prius. Thus, the Chevy Volt was born.

Unfortunately, according to recent reports, Lutz then believed that GM would be able to sell the Volt for $25,000. Today, we know the Volt will sell for about $40,000. Yet, even at that price according to these reports, the Volt will still be sold at a loss.

Alex Taylor III of Fortune states, "The per-unit loss will be on top of the $1 billion development cost for the Volt. It is remarkable that despite GM's deteriorating finances and the fact that it lost $1 billion on an earlier electric vehicle, Lutz still managed to sell the Volt program to GM's board."

Thus, I guess it's no wonder that Lutz hates the Prius. The Volt isn't Lutz's biggest blunder. Instead, Lutz's biggest blunder has been the Prius, a vehicle that has proven Lutz wrong again and again.

Aerodynamics the new horsepower

As aerodynamic as it's going to get

It's aerodynamics, stupid.

Insideline reported yesterday that GM's lead Chevy Volt designer, Bob Boniface, has become a little offensive about the Volt's aerodynamics. While GM isn't releasing official aero figures, Boniface claims that many competitors, such as Tesla, are releasing phony numbers. Ultimately, Boniface claims the Volt will offer a coefficient drag similar to either the Roadster or the new Toyota Prius.

Thus, Insideline speculates that aero figures are the new horsepower wars, at least for those developing alternative technologies.

What do you think? Are aerodynamics the new horespower? Is this much ado about nothing, as the Volt is still more than a year from launch?

The battery powered auto revolution: Going nowhere fast

Volts of hype

The battery is the future, at least the mid-term future, according to almost every major automaker. Eventually, after a couple of minor miracles, fuel cell vehicles might replace pure battery powered EVs. Still, even fuel cell vehicles will include hybrid-style batteries.

One way or another, the future of the auto industry is centered around battery technology.

Today, Toyota is the undisputed king of hybrid cars. Not a single other automaker is even on the same field as Toyota. I guess you could say that makes them the leader of the battery revolution. Unfortunately, however, Toyota's hybrid-powering NiMH battery technology is not the battery technology of the future.

On the other hand, for years now, GM has been hyping its battery-powered Chevy Volt hybrid, as Nissan has suggested it would skip hybrids in favor of pure electric cars. Regardless of whether the future is hybrids, pure EVs or a combination of both, every automaker is increasing their battery-powered hype.

Unfortunately, most of the battery-powered revolution is talk, talk, talk and spin, spin, spin.

Unless gas prices rise to at least $4.00, most Americans won't even a consider a hybrid like the Toyota Prius. It'll take even much higher gas prices to make the Chevy Volt cost-effective, and Nissan's EVs probably won't really resonate until battery swapping is perfected.

Yet, until all of that happens, expect even greater hype, more political sound bites, and increased media hoopla regarding how battery-powered cars are going to completely transform America, just don't expect the future to live up to the hype anytime soon.

Rocket powered Prius hybrids coming soon?

Just add a micro-jet engine?

ETV, an Israeli startup, has a modified a Toyota Prius into a range extended hybrid, much like the Chevy Volt. However, instead of using a small engine to generate electricity, the ETV hybrid uses a small micro-jet engine / turbine that produces power to drive the wheels or to recharge the battery pack.

According to ETV their range extended Prius can travel 35 to 50 miles on a charge before the jet engine needs to fire up. Fortunately, the jet engine is reported to be 'whisper quiet' and it can use diesel, gasoline, biofuels, etc to to generate electricity.

More important, ETV believes their hybrid technology will be cheaper than other hybrid vehicles, possibly due to the lithium manganese nickel oxide batteries the company has developed.

According to MotorTrend, "The batteries are the first of their kind to have 4.7-volt cells rather than a standard lithium-ion battery's 3.2-volt cells. The higher density battery stores more energy which allows for greater range with a smaller battery, and the battery is expected to last the life of the car."

Can GM's hybrids live up to the hype?

And it's still coming

I read a few stories this morning on how GM has again confirmed that the technology that was to power the Saturn Vue hybrid, including the plug-in version, will live. Whoohoo!

Now I'm not certain whether it's GM that keeps trying to reiterate this message, or if it's pro-GM writers that just have to find something to write about GM's hybrid vehicles. Ultimately, since GM won't offer a new hybrid for at least another year, what else is there besides repeating these juicy stories of how the Vue hybrid lives, or on how the Chevy Volt's blinker color has changed?

Certainly, many are excited to see the launch of the Volt late next year, however, since GM's production plans are so limited for the first few years, this excitement is more hype than reality.

Of course, it isn't just the Volt next year, but also some new lithium-powered BAS hybrids, as well as the new Vue hybrid not longer after. And these new hybrids better be, at least, mild hybrid hits.

In the last several years GM has gone from slamming hybrids like the Toyota Prius to claiming that their hybrid technology was better than Toyota's to even claiming they could totally leapfrog a hybrid like the Prius.

Starting next year, when the rubber begins to hit the road, the reality better live up to the hype. Otherwise, GM's public perception will never recover.

Chevy Volt: Greatest auto marketing coup ever?

Pre production Volt one week ahead of schedule

I'm a big fan of the Chevy Volt. I've been talking about it for more than 2 years. Unfortunately, I'll be talking about if for more than another year before GM actually starts selling this innovative plug-in vehicle.

Anyway, today GM announced that it had started production on pre-production Volts, slightly ahead of schedule. Yet, what does this really mean?

Despite the long term potential of the Chevy Volt, the Volt offers GM very little in the next decade, other than positive press. In fact, it will almost certainly be at least a decade before GM is even producing 100,000 Volts per year. In the short term, Volt sales are meaningless. It's all about marketing.

Certainly, in another decade or so, the Volt could become GM's most important vehicle, or at least the first output of its most important platform. Unfortunately, however, it is far too early to tell. Every automaker has various plug-in plans, but the winners are many years away from being determined. Yet, no other plug-in vehicle receives near the attention of the Volt.

Regardless, there is no denying the marketing power of the Volt. Hence, is the Volt the greatest marketing coup ever in the automotive world?

2012: GM's hybrid offensive begins?

Was the dual mode Vue hybrid a contender?

GM has been talking about a big increase in it's hybrid vehicle portfolio for a number of years now. Today, GM reiterated those plans of 14 new hybrid vehicles by 2012.

Since that statement, MotorTrend has tried to guess GM's future hybrid line up. Sadly, outside of the Chevy Volt, not much looks that impressive. Hopefully, 14 different models, some rebadged, will collectively help GM move some hybrids and provide some scalability for these technologies.

Ultimately, however, there are still some key questions. First, can an updated BAS System with lithium really make GM's mild hybrids that much more compelling? Second, will the dual mode hybrid powertrain ever be cost-effective, especially in smaller SUVs and crossovers that might not need all the functionality that the dual mode hybrid powertrain provides?

Regardless, I'd prefer just one or two new hybrid models, each capable of selling at least 50,000 units per year, instead of 7 more that each sell 10,000 units, or less, per year. Thus, I'm hoping, possibly beyond hope, that GM has at least one hybrid wild card up its sleeve.

2015: 77,000 Volts per year to change GM's image

Mostly a marketing tool for the next decade

I don't hate GM. Still, now that US taxpayers are into GM for many tens of billions of dollars, it's hard not to look at GM in anything other than a critical light. And, unfortunately, it's very easy to find criticism with GM.

Last week a JD Power supplier survey found that of the top 10 automakers, GM was considered to be the least innovative. Then, today a UM study claimed that GM is not prepared for a significant move towards fuel efficiency.

So, what does GM have for the future? Well, it has the Chevy Volt, a very compelling vehicle, but a vehicle that GM will only be producing 77,000 units of per year by 2015. How can that really help GM become more fuel efficient and competitive?

It's all about marketing. Aside from the CAFE credits that the Volt will provide for GM's guzzlers, the real purpose of the Volt for the next decade is about image, not profitability. The Volt is an "image-changer" that will help change GM's image as an automaker lacking innovation into an innovator, without actually selling lots of innovative vehicles, noted an IBD article this weekend.

Hopefully, one day GM's auto business will be as innovative as its marketing.

GM preparing for high oil prices

More Volts coming?

Once the US breaks out of recession many, including GM, believe that oil prices are going to rise. Consequently, GM is preparing for oil prices over $100 per barrel. That means an increased focus on "electric cars and biofuels" according to the AFP.

Unfortunately, there aren't many more details about GM's future plans. Sadly, however, GM has been spinning the biofuel tale for years now, with few positive results. Today, GM's flex fuel vehicles are more about CAFE credits than fighting oil prices.

In terms of electric cars, we know about the Chevy Volt. So does this mean more Volts, or is GM going to broaden it's battery-powered portfolio? Hopefully, new details will be available soon.

Innovation: Is GM capable of quality hybrids?

Can the Volt buck the trend?

Many times I've read that GM is going to set the new standard of hybrid and electric vehicles with the Chevy Volt. It will be the most innovative technology on the road many have claimed.

While I find the Volt to be revolutionary, at least in concept, I've long worried that it won't make financial sense for most consumers, especially in the short-to-midterm. Moreover, I've never felt the Volt was an excuse not to produce more hybrid cars like today's Toyota Prius.

Yet, the real question might be, is GM capable of such revolutionary innovation?

According to a new JD Power supplier survey, GM is considered the least innovative of the top 10 automakers.

1,000,000 hybrid cars sold per year, but none American

Will American automakers ever offer a $20,000 Prius-contender?

Within about the next year Toyota and Honda believe they will, combined, begin selling 1,000,000 hybrid cars per year. American automakers on the other hand, combined, won't even sell 100,000 hybrids.

Certainly, American automakers have future products intended to leapfrog the Toyota Prius, but how realistic are those plans?

For instance, Toyota also has plans for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Can a vehicle like the Chevy Volt steal all of Toyota's green market share? I mean honestly, GM is still many years away from producing 100,000 Volts per year. Doesn't GM need much, much more than the Volt?

Perhaps gas prices will decline, or at least stagnate for a number of years. If not, however, is there any real reason to believe that US automakers are anywhere close to being correctly positioned for the future?

Is the lithium vehicle revolution more hype than reality?

A lithium battery pack from Hymotion

The other day one of GM's top Volt engineers, Frank Weber, claimed that by the second generation of the Chevy Volt, it was possible that battery costs could be halved. While I found that to be great news, I wondered how one could know such a thing if mass production of such batteries hadn't yet been demonstrated?

Then today I read a story about how GM's Global Battery Systems Engineering Group Manager, Joe LoGrasso, told the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference that "long-term commercial success [of lithium] may depend on the convergence of cell formats." Moreover, he claimed such convergence faced lots of obstacles and might not even be possible.

But, without such convergence, lithium success might not be possible?

These days, automakers have become marketing machines. Once Bob Lutz claimed that GM could have developed and produced a Toyota Prius contender with just a fraction of one year's marketing budget. Thus, automakers have a lot of money to spin hype and hope into publicly perceived reality.

One way or another advanced battery technology will make its way into the automobile, but is the lithium battery vehicle far more hype than reality today, and for the short to mid-term? Have automakers over-hyped the reality of current automotive technology, again?

Does the Volt really resonate in America?

More hype than reality?

GM is holding a technology briefing today that will include updates on GM's new, fully operational battery lab as well as more confirmation about a new fleet of pre-production Chevy Volts. None of this news, however, is really that new if you've been following the Volt story.

In a nutshell, however, the Chevy Volt is on track, even ahead of schedule. More important, GM believes it can significantly reduce costs, especially regarding the battery, by just the second generation. Nonetheless, the Volt will still cost a good bit more than both a conventional vehicle, as well as a conventional hybrid vehicle like the Toyota Prius.

So, can the Volt really be America's car?

Numerous studies indicate that most Americans are very concerned about foreign oil dependency, and they believe that hybrid cars are a strategically important part of ending this dependency. Yet, the majority of these Americans are not willing to pay extra for these strategically important vehicles.

Can a potentially revolutionary American hybrid, or range extended electric vehicle, change this complacent attitude? Or, are significantly higher gas prices the Volt's only chance of serious market penetration?

EV cost check: $47,000 for an i MiEv?

It is clean and green though

During media days at the LA Auto show I spent a good bit of time sitting in the i MiEV, imaging myself as a driver and a passenger. Opening and shutting doors. Just really trying to get a feel for the vehicle. Ultimately, I assumed the reason for this car feeling so small and, I hate to say it, but cheap, was to help make this car more affordable.

Yet, today Mitsubishi has announced that the i MiEV is going on sale this year in Japan for $47,500. Isn't that wildly expensive for such a vehicle with only 100 mile range?

Moreover, it really makes me wonder how much the Chevy Volt is really going to cost at first. Somehow I think GM is banking on some funny accounting in order to sell the Volt at $40,000.

The new GM will be lean, but will it be green?

Volt-style marketing the future of GM

When GM debuted the Chevy Volt a few years ago, Bob Lutz told the automotive world that GM would handle Volt development in a new way. Volt progress, or problems, would be shared in an open and transparent manner.

Some have called this openness a marketing gimmick designed to create a Toyota Prius-like green halo around GM, without actually having to sell the vehicle. Like it or not, however, this openness is no longer going to be restricted to the Volt. Instead, this openness will be the driver of all GM products and plans according to CEO Fritz Henderson.

The new GM, according to Henderson, will be dedicated "to building on only the very best of our recent progress in fuel efficiency, world-class quality, green technology development and outstanding design." Moreover, it will begin by "engaging with you, our customers and critics, our partners and champions, who are interested in our progress."

This morning even President Obama claimed the new GM "will be full of promise".

Still, while GM should emerge from bankruptcy much leaner, will it really emerge much greener? Without doubt, green technologies are the auto industry's main buzzwords, but can GM truly derive profit from these green technologies? For instance, if the Volt isn't going to be profitable for at least another decade, what other green technologies will bring out the "promise" of the new GM?

Hopefully, if GM lives up to its new promise of openness, we'll soon learn just how GM plans to turn green technologies into a viable game plan for the future.

$32,500: Is the Chevy Volt a dud or a deal?

Would you buy a $40,000 Volt that includes a $7500 tax credit?

GM's Bob Lutz told David Letterman what most that have followed the Chevy Volt have known for some time - the Volt is going to start at $40,000. Add a $7500 tax credit and that brings the price down to $32,500.

Most polls I've seen indicate this is still too expensive for most consumers. Nonetheless, I believe there will be hordes of potential consumers lining up for the Volt, especially since production will probably be relatively limited for the first few years, minimally. And, of course, the limited tax credit will also inspire early adopters.

Regardless, what happens when tax credits for the Volt expire? Will GM have to sell the Volt at a significant loss until economies of scale eventually, hopefully, enable a natural price reduction?

Finally, are plug-in tax credits the right approach for stimulating plug-in sales? Why not an instant point of sale refund? Can't the government be more consumer friendly?

Don't make fun of the Volt

Let's get real for a second

So, David Letterman crossed Bob Lutz's line. Letterman made fun of the Chevy Volt when Tesla's Elon Musk was on Dave's Show.

Relax, Bob. The Volt is worthy of a few jokes. We've been hearing about the Volt for more than 2 years and it's still almost two years away from putting rubber to the road. Nonetheless, if it lives up to the hype I'm sure you'll be the last one laughing.

Still, why get hot and bothered? What have Musk and Tesla proven?

GM could have a developed a Roadster-like vehicle a decade ago. A DECADE ago. So could have Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, etc. Unfortunately, unless you're goal is an IPO such a vehicle would have helped GM accomplish next to nothing. GM would still be facing bankruptcy, and its EV would still be losing tons of money.

Ultimately, both Tesla's Roadster and the Volt are a good bit of hype. When either vehicle achieves sales of at least 100,000 units, I'll become a believer. Of course, until either starts selling at least 100,000 units per year, both vehicles will continue to be more experiment than reality - and worthy of a joke every now and again!

Traditional hybrids are becoming obsolete?

Already a dead car walking?

Wow. I guess headlines are the only thing that matters these days.

Today, Newsweek has an article Why traditional hybrid cars are becoming obsolete.

Why? The $80, 000 Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid and the $100,000 Tesla Roadster of course. Yet, according to the same article, without higher fuel prices, the gasoline engine might be around much longer than most would like.

Huh? So that's why traditional hybrid cars are going to become obsolete?

OK. Newsweek also cites declining Toyota Prius sales. While true, before the 2010 Prius launches, about 60,000 - 70,000 of these vehicles will already have been presold. In fact, based on early demand, Toyota has already put plans in motion to increase yearly production to 500,000 cars per year.

By 2015, GM - if all goes well - might be producing 100,000 Chevy Volts per year. Similarly, Nissan is hoping to produce 100,000 Cube EVs per year several years from now. Fisker is hoping to eventually produce 15,000 plug-in hybrids per year. In reality, by 2015, there might not be enough EVs produced yearly to replace even today's Prius demand.

Considering that Toyota and Honda are now betting big on hybrids, I guess they'll be next in bankruptcy court?

Time to pull the plug on the Chevy Volt?

It just can't help GM?

If you hate GM, then you probably don't think much of the Chevy Volt. In fact, you might even call it an unrealistic hype machine into which GM has sunk far too much money.

That's the argument the Washington Post makes today, and I have to admit, it's a pretty persuasive argument. For instance, the article points to numerous analyses, including some done by President Obama's auto task force, that indicate the economics simply don't make sense for a vehicle like the Volt. Thus, how can the Volt help GM's bottom line?

For example, even with $4.00 gas, it would still take, minimally, six years for the the Volt to recover its costs compared to today's Toyota Prius. And, that's assuming the Volt will only cost $30,000 after huge government tax credits and subsidies. Even at such a cost, it would still take far longer for many other Volt owners to recover their costs compared to a Prius.

Thus, this Post editorial suggests pulling the plug on the Volt, and I couldn't disagree more.

I have long argued that the Volt should never have been an excuse not to develop a Prius-contender. Perhaps GM's lithium-powered BAS hybrid system can fill this void, but cheap quality hybrids will be a necessity for any automaker in the very near future.

Fortunately, GM's billion dollar investment into the Volt could help produce such cheap hybrid vehicles, aside from the Volt. Because much of GM's Volt investment has been centered around one core technology, lithium-ion batteries, GM could conceivably parlay this knowledge into many different types of hybrid and electric vehicles.

Hence, to call GM's Volt venture a waste that helped lead to bankruptcy and a loss of corporate reputation is pure nonsense.

I've seen GM's battery labs. I've seen GM's virtual design center. These two elements alone could make GM's Volt investment worth the cost, even if the Volt itself is another decade away from any sort of real world, cost-effective impact.

Nonetheless, the Volt cannot save GM in the next decade. However, that does not mean the plug should be pulled on the Volt. Instead, it means GM needs to utilize the massive amount of intelligence gleaned from the Volt and convert it into a more well-rounded and balanced hybrid and electric vehicle portfolio, including the Volt.

If GM can do that, the Volt might just be GM's smartest investment ever. If not, maybe we shouldn't just pull the plug on the Volt, but GM.

Cap-and-trade or gas tax: Are we fooling ourselves?

Are both too offensive to Americans?

Oil is trading around $50 per barrel, yet supplies are building and there are oil tankers full of oil with no where to go. If oil prices were driven purely by the fundamentals, oil would probably be about $20 bucks a barrel. And, until the US economy fully kicks back into gear - something that could take longer than Obama's first term - oil prices probably won't increase significantly.

So, will $7500 tax credits on 60,000 Chevy Volts per year really inspire the American populace into greater fuel efficiency, or will 60,000 Volts simply serve as a tool to balance GM's CAFE requirements, enabling the sale of more gas-guzzlers?

Recently, because of Congressional concern and consumer sentiment, President Obama indicated that cap-and-trade could be put on hold. Likewise, Obama has not been a strong proponent of a gas tax. Still, aren't we fooling ourselves if we believe that real change can be achieved without a significant change in energy prices? Of course, aren't we fools to believe that Americans are ready for such change?

Fortune rips Big 3 and "foolhardy" Volt

The Volt's redesigned debut

A few weeks ago Fortune's Alex Taylor III slammed GM's Chevy Volt calling it "misguided, even foolhardy".

Today, Taylor elaborates on his Volt criticism while wondering when the Big 3 will challenge a vehicle like the Toyota Prius. Moreover, he wonders how financially-strangled Big 3 automakers are going to catch companies like Toyota on advanced technology.

Sure GM has a vehicle like the Volt, but Volt profitability is probably 3 generations away. How will GM make money in the interim? With gas-guzzlers? Without ever directly challenging the Prius?

And, if it takes another 10 years before the Volt is possibly profitable, new Chinese companies, such as BYD, might be too lean and mean - not to mention close to lithium supplies - for GM and the Big 3 to contend.

Is the green auto revolution more hype than reality?

Can Honda sell 100,000 Insights per year?

“In spite of government and advocacy groups touting the benefits of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, Americans seem to have an insatiable feeling that bigger is better,” claims AutoTrader research data according to MSNBC's Dan Carney.

In recent years, automakers have built a lot of PR hype around their green offerings, or at least their future green offerings. For instance, America has been hearing about the Chevy Volt for years now, yet the Volt's sale's debut is almost 2 years from reality. Even then, and for a number of years after, GM will be making 10's of thousands of Volts, not 100's of thousands.

Likewise, many other automakers have plans for a hybrid or two, maybe a few small cars, and a limited production EV. Yet, none of these automakers have stopped building beefed up sports cars and gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. Go to any auto show and most of the crowds are still drawn to the usual, inefficient suspects.

In terms of sales, for instance, Ford has been putting great effort into promoting its fantastic Fusion hybrid, but the automaker is only going to make 25,000 of these great hybrid cars per year. On the other hand, Ford sold over 30,000 F-Series trucks in March alone, despite the fact that Ford truck sales are down more than 40 percent year to date thanks to a recession - not gas prices.

In reality, isn't the green auto revolution still mostly hype?

Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

Plain and simple cost effectiveness

Later this Spring Toyota will begin rolling out the much anticipated 2010 Toyota Prius. At 50 mpg, the average Prius driver will spend less then $600 per year on fuel. After 5 years that's less than $3000. After 10 it's less than $6000.

So, let's say $22,000 for the base Prius + $6000 in fuel costs after 10 years and that's $28,000.

The Chevy Volt, on the other hand, is probably going to cost a bit over $30,000, after the $7,500 tax credit. So, say the Volt is $33,000 and it only uses electric power its entire life, resulting in a $1000 fuel cost after 10 years. That still makes the Volt $6,000 more expensive than the Prius. So, it would take $4.00 gas to bring simple equality.

Unfortunately, the $7500 tax credit is not going to last long relatively speaking. Most Volt buyers, if the Volt is a success, won't qualify for any tax credit.

FINISH: Prius, Volt and some simple EV economics

GM seeks $2.6 billion for Volt, 2 Volt spin-offs

Don't pull the plug on the Volt yet

GM has requested $2.6 billion in low interest loans to help support further development of the Chevy Volt and two new Volt variants. In total, that would bring GM's Energy Department fuel efficient vehicle aid requests to $10.3 billion according to Reuters.

This request is separate from the Obama task force conclusion that the Chevy Volt would not help GM become viable in the short term.

Volt Shock: How do we fight foreign oil dependency in the short term?

How many more oil wars before we're free?

According to Barack Obama's auto task force, GM's Chevy Volt will be too expensive to help GM's viability any time soon. Obviously, if GM is struggling to survive, it can't afford to make too many Volts if it can't make any money off of them.

So, how is the US going to fight foreign oil dependency in the short term?

Recently, Congress enacted tax credits for plug-in hybrids that strongly favor large battery vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt, versus smaller battery plug-in hybrids like a plug-in Prius. Yet, according to the task force, these large battery plug-in vehicles are going to be too expensive to help either GM or America any time soon. Likewise, some studies question whether large battery vehicles are even wise at all.

The point is, doesn't Congress have to do a better job of incentivizing the fight against foreign oil dependency? How many more decades of foreign oil dependency can America (and the world) survive?

Chevy Volt can't save GM

Henderson, Lutz and Wagoner next to the Volt

I'm a big fan of the Chevy Volt. I think it's an important step in the right direction, especially for a company like GM. Still, I've blogged over-and-over that the Volt was not an excuse not to build a direct Toyota Prius-contender.

Ultimately, the lack of small hybrid cars coming out of GM - there are none - has perpetually bothered me. Thus, when a web campaign emerged to 'bailout out GM to save the Volt'. I had to say no (Bailout GM to save the Volt: No).

GM's viability, I've believed, had to be about more than the Volt, especially in the short term, and President Obama's task force agrees.

"While the Volt holds promise, it will likely be too expensive to be commercially successful in the short-term," an Obama task report said. The electric car "is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable."

Taxing: A $50,000 Tesla Model S or a $33,000 Chevy Volt?

Or neither?

In 2011 environmentalists and foreign-energy hawks will have a number of interesting choices available when purchasing their next car. Two of the top picks will, undoubtedly, be the Tesla Model S and the Chevy Volt.

After tax incentives, the Tesla Model S will cost about $50,000,the Chevy Volt about $33,000, although it seems the Model S will be more of a luxury sedan than the Volt.

The Model S will offer an electric range of about 225 miles between charges. The Volt should offer at least 300 miles, but the Volt also offers the ability to use gasoline to generate electricity.

Personally, I'd love to have both vehicles, but neither make sense for my driving needs. However, if I had to pick one, it would easily be the Volt and for one reason only, cost.

Which brings me to a touchy subject. Tax incentives for wealthy people. Or, more precisely, tax incentives for cars costing far above $30,000 - a number most Americans cannot afford. Shouldn't the government focus it's tax incentives on cars with the most mass-appeal? Cars that provide the quickest adoption for the greatest numbers possible?

If you can afford a $50,000 auto, how badly do you really need a $7500 tax credit?

The General has no lithium supply fears

Lithium supply will not limit EVs

Every company always has to put their best foot forward. To do otherwise, often times, would lead to the end of your business. So companies often wear rose-colored glasses when projecting their business viability forward.

Nonetheless, it was noteworthy today that in a Volt battery update conference, GM stated bluntly that lithium supply constraints would not hamper the Volt, nor the electrification of the automobile.

Chevy Volt on track, even ahead of schedule

Batteries to become a core business for GM

As you read this, GM isn't just finalizing 80 prototype Chevy Volts that will be used this summer to get the Volt ready for final production, GM is also concurrently working on 2nd and 3rd generation Volts.

Why? For instance, according to Denise Gray, the Director of Global Battery Systems Engineering, GM is already realizing that electronic systems, for instance, could lead to cheaper prices for 2nd and 3rd generation Volts.

Anyway, that's some of what GM stated today in a Volt battery update, which I'll cover in greater detail later. However, GM did confirm that the Volt is on track for its 2010 launch. In fact, the Volt is even ahead of schedule in some aspects of development.

Hating GM, Obama and America: Why it's time to bail out the Big 3

Time to leave it all behind

I've loved hating GM over the years. Even the Chevy Volt is worth hating sometimes. We've been hearing about it for years and its still almost years away. Furthermore, most Americans need fuel efficient solutions that cost less than $20,000, but can still achieve 40 mpg in the city.

Where's that GM product?

Yet, whom do I really hate when I hate GM? Is not GM but a microcosm of America? Health care, social security and pensions are intricately intertwined between GM - and the larger auto industry - and America. In many ways, GM's failures are America's failures.

Finish: Hating GM, Obama and America: Why it's time to bail out the Big 3

A Volt for every dysfuntional American?

The cure for America's range anxiety

OK. Let's get this out of the way. In a perfect world, the Chevy Volt doesn't make sense.

Elon Musk of Tesla has said it. Studies like the recent CMU study suggest it.

Battery powered vehicles are simply most efficient on short trips - about 20 miles or less between charges. Fortunately, that would accommodate the real world driving patterns of most Americans.

Of course, it's not as simple as that. Finish: A Volt for every dysfunctional American

Can the Volt save GM from bankruptcy?

Irrelevant or GM's Ace card?

CNBC's Phil Lebeau reiterated his belief that bankruptcy is not in the cards for GM. According to Lebeau the government made up its mind about saving GM some time ago. Check out this video of Lebeau on this issue, which includes a Chevy Volt test drive.

Yesterday, President Obama's task force drove the Volt and reviewed GM's EV plans. Since Congress built its plug-in tax credits around large battery plug-ins, such as the Volt, it does seem as if bankruptcy was probably never very likely.

Obama's auto task force to drive Volt today

Do Voltec economics make sense?

Members of President Obama's auto task force will take the Chevy Volt out for a spin today, and hear more from GM about its plans for Voltec - the powertrain powering the Chevy Volt.

Does the Volt justify more bailout money for GM?

GM responds to CMU study questioning Volt viability

It's not dead yet

Last week Carnegie Melon University put out a study questioning Volt viability. Actually, it wasn't just questioning the Chevy Volt, but the size of the battery pack in a plug-in vehicle and whether or not it would be cost-competitive, reduce global warming issues, etc. compared to conventional cars, hybrid cars and smaller battery-pack hybrids.

Yesterday, GM responded. One of their primary contentions was the cost of the battery pack cited in study, which GM claims is over-estimated.

The response also suggests the Volt won't be cost-effective at first, but scalability will change that. Read the full response here.

Why doesn't the Prius qualify for a tax credit?

Too much pressure on US automakers?

Why doesn't the Toyota Prius qualify for a tax credit? Why not the Honda Insight?

If it were the Ford Prius that was today's king of hybrid cars, would the government have extended tax credits on such vehicles long ago?

Today, automakers use EVs as an excuse not to build hybrids much in the same way they once used fuel cells. Certainly, EVs are more realistic than fuel cells, but they still haven't been proven reliable and, more importantly, cost-effective, etc. And, even worse, a new study questions the entire cost-effectiveness of the Chevy Volt.

Besides, it will take decades to convert America's fleet into any type of more fuel efficient vehicles. Hybrids are a great solution today that could be converted into plug-in hybrids tomorrow - by American companies, such as A123Systems. Shouldn't we be doing everything we can today about energy efficiency today?

Is a Prius plant in America really so irrelevant?

GM resets plans for Volt engine

Engine will eventually be made in America

When the Chevy Volt goes on sale in late 2010, it will come loaded with not only a foreign-made battery, but a foreign made engine. Fortunately, that should change some time in 2011, when GM adds Chevy Cruze and Volt engine production to its Flint South engine plant according to new reports.

What vehicles will save hybrid-less Detroit?

Hybrids, small cars or EVs?

OK, before I get started, I have to give Ford a few props. Ford has been selling about 25,000 hybrid cars per year for many years now. Soon, it will lift that production to about 50,000 hybrids per year.

Of course, that's nothing compared to Toyota's hybrid vehicle sales, and Ford has yet to directly challenge the Prius.

So, what vehicles will save Detroit, if not a Prius-fighter?

Well, it isn't going to be plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevy Volt, according to CNN. In the near term, such vehicles are "pricey and unprofitable" and mostly about "public relations and marketing benefits".

Likewise, small cars also aren't very profitable to US automakers, which Detroit builds purely for first time buyers whom later trade up for more profitable vehicles.

Yet, what if gas hovers around $3.00 or $4.00 for the next four years?

At such prices, fuel efficiency will matter, but it won't matter enough to push a majority of Americans into expensive PHEVS, for instance. They'd probably go smaller, or buy cheaper hybrids, such as the Honda Insight.

Again, however, this is a segment that US automakers seem not able to compete. So, what kinds of vehicles can guarantee the viability of Detroit without massive government assistance, especially amidst turbulent energy prices?

Prius plant in America - Do you care?

An American-made foreign oil dependency fighter?

Now that Toyota is offering buyouts for US workers and cutting pay for everyone, a new US plant to develop Prius hybrids - in America - appears dead.

Do you care? Many don't because it's a foreign company.

Yet, when the first Chevy Volt hits the street in 2010, it will be manufactured with an imported engine and an imported battery - the most critical component in the vehicle.

Do you care?

Couldn't having significant numbers of Toyota hybrid vehicles built in America help develop a US battery industry? Wouldn't that be a good thing?

Is this the time for nationalism, or the intelligent acceptance of the global economy?

Does GM have the right products?

Will the Volt make sense?

When the Chevy Volt goes on sale in late 2010, there will be no shortage of buyers. In fact, there will probably never be a shortage of Volt buyers. Of course, for many years, there will be a shortage of Volts as supply chains are slowly developed.

However, can the Volt move from fad to mainstream, especially when tax credits for such vehicles expire? Will the Volt be cost effective for hundreds of thousands of average consumers every year within the next decade?

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, plug-in hybrids and EVs are not going to make financial sense until long after 2020.

Conventional hybrid cars, on the other hand, such as the Toyota Prius that outgoing product guru Bob Lutz hated so much, will make much more financial sense by 2020, even without tax incentives.

Thus, can Tom Stephens, whom will replace Lutz, fill GM's hybrid void with a vehicle that can directly challenge the Prius, in terms of not just fuel economy, but cost?

Since Stephens' specialty has been powertrains, rather than just design, a new focus on additional powertrain solutions seems possible. Dare I say even inevitable?

With California's EPA waiver now a very strong possibility, the Volt and Flex Fuel cars are not going to be enough to ensure GM's survival. A cheap small hybrid seems an absolute requirement, and Stephens actually gives me hope that such a GM vehicle is now a possibility.

Volt's father to retire this year

Bob Lutz at the Volt's NAIAS debut

GM's product chief and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz is set to retire at the end of this year.

The legendary Lutz was one of the main drivers of GM's Chevy Volt program, but he will not hang around long enough to see the vehicle hit the streets in late 2010. The 76 year old has had enough.

A fierce critic of global warming and the Toyota Prius, Lutz has often been on the wrong side of issues covered by this blog. In fact, I used to refer to him as "Lutz, the putz".

Still, having had the opportunity to be around Lutz a few times at various auto events was a priceless experience for this blogger. Nobody made a press event more entertaining than Bob Lutz, even if you did disagree with him.

Technology: Do the Big 3 have the right stuff?

Can this car save Chrysler?

So, Big 3 automakers are at the Washington Auto Show trying to prove to the White House and Congress that they have the right technology to reduce foreign oil dependency and fight global warming?

But do they really?

Probably the most iconic example of next generation American auto technology is the Chevy Volt. Many, including this blogger, have called the Volt game-changing. However, I make that statement with one caveat: cost-effectiveness.

I have no doubts that the technology powering the Volt will be a success. I do, however, have some doubts that the Volt's technology can achieve cost-effectiveness and cost-competitiveness. In fact, I don't even think there is a chance of cost-efficiency without significantly higher fuel prices - probably much higher than what was experienced this past summer.

Moreover, perhaps the Volt is the wrong kind of technology for America's problems. Maybe more conventional hybrid vehicles or plug-in hybrids, such as a plug-in Prius or a plug-in Escape hybrid, aren't as technologically sophisticated, but they are simply more cost-effective. Or, just a better balance of upfront costs and long term fuel savings.

Today, there are just too many variables - too much uncertainty - to make predictions based on technology that not one automaker has yet sold in the real world. Besides, markets determine winners, not PR departments.

What is clear today, however, is that the Big 3 cannot cost-effectively compete at selling fuel efficient technology. So, why will the future be any different?

Imported battery and engine to power Volt

A few Volt lithium battery packs

When the Chevy Volt hits the streets next year it will be powered by both imported batteries and and an imported engine according to the UAW.

GM does plan to eventually produce both the batteries and the engines in the US but, according to the latest reports, there are no concrete plans for when and how that happens. In fact, the new engine plant planned for Flint might even be put on hold indefinitely.

Likewise, there is no proof, for example, that GM can cost-effectively produce lithium batteries in the US.

At least the Volt will be assembled in the US.

A few less amps in the Volt?

It'll be a winner, but when?

I'm a big fan of the Chevy Volt. I think it's one of GM's most interesting projects in decades. Unfortunately, that isn't necessarily saying much. Yet, while the Volt has great potential, I still cannot help but ask when will the Volt be a real game changer, because it certainly isn't in late 2010 when the vehicle launches.

GM has been pretty frank about the fact that the Volt isn't going to be rolling off production lines by the thousands every month in 2011. In fact, in 2011, GM might only make a few 1,000 Volts. 100,000 Volts per year is easily five years away, perhaps even much longer.

Yesterday, Frank Weber, a Flex Drive executive wrote "The Opel Ampera and Chevrolet Volt are production programs designed to meet the needs of thousands of customers, not a modified production vehicle for fleet or demo drives. "

Is the key word from that statement "thousands" of customers?

Without doubt, the Volt is an essential piece of GM's future, but is it really enough today if Obama's green revolution takes hold amidst stable gas prices? With California's EPA waiver?

The Volt should never have been an excuse not to challenge the Toyota Prius directly as soon as possible, and that decision, I bet, is going to come back and bite GM's bottom line - if it hasn't already.

Dump Detroit if they can't compete with the Prius

How can Detroit compete in the future without a Prius-contender?

President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress have some new and refreshing ideas for America. To fight foreign oil dependency and global warming - while creating jobs - Democrats are proposing huge investments in cost-inefficient green technologies often built by inefficient companies.

To make these green technologies more cost-effective, many - including this blogger - have suggested a gas tax. Thus far, however, President Obama has been against the idea. In these economic times, it's hard to blame him for such a stance. Still, eventually, some tough decisions must be made.

US automakers are struggling just to survive and if US auto sales don't pick up next year, it's going to be hard for these automakers to survive without a massive bailout. As a result, many are suggesting tax incentives for the consumers of US-made vehicles - most of which are gas-guzzlers. That's not very green.

Yet, this is the conundrum Obama and Democrats must manage. Is it really worth it to create a false market based upon gas-guzzler sales? Maybe the reality is, is that Americans are going to be purchasing less cars. That could be the new automotive reality, and there have been a few studies suggesting that America's love affair with the car is over.

Even more important, there is a good chance that California will soon be regulating its own emissions standards. That means vehicles like the Toyota Prius and the Honda Insight might quickly become the best selling vehicles in California, and as many as 17 other states. Yet, what will Detroit automakers sell? They have few, if any, hot, fuel efficient models.

Some will undoubtedly claim that GM can sell the Chevy Volt, for instance. Well, GM probably won't be selling many Volts by 2016 when California's 30 percent reduction goes into effect. And, even if GM can increase production, the Insight will cost $20,000, the Volt $40,000. Can the Volt really be enough, especially if gas prices don't increase drastically?

Even Ford, with its new hybrid technology, still doesn't have a Prius-contender. While its new Ford Fusion hybrid is compelling, why is Ford only planning to make 25,000 of these hybrid vehicles? More important, if you're rolling out a new hybrid drive, why would you not challenge the standard, the Prius, as Honda did? Can you not compete?

By 2016, when California emission standards go live, Toyota could be selling a million hybrids per year, a majority of them Prius hybrids, yet Detroit might not yet have a competitive - in terms of technology AND costs - product. Can you really bank on Detroit in that reality?

Should Obama save the Big 3 at any cost?

25,000 per year for years now

Last night I was watching an interesting NOVA program called The Big Energy Gamble and how AB 32 is going to drastically change the auto market in California. Essentially, if California moves forward with AB 32, automakers will need to sell many millions of hybrid cars or EVs in California alone, in order to meet CO2 emissions requirements.

And, there are many states considering similar laws if California's continues to move forward.

Toyota, the king of hybrid cars, is well on its way to helping California meet its goals, and Honda is ramping up its hybrid production as well, although even Honda has some serious work ahead.

The Big 3, on the other hand, seem pathetically far behind. Possibly, Ford has some plans, but as the automaker has only been able to make 25,000 Escape hybrids per year, and has the same 25,000 cap for the Fusion hybrid, I have some serious worries. Sadly, GM and Chrysler seem even further behind.

Yet, as the bailout deadline approaches, the UAW is already calling on Obama for help. If this were the end of all bailout talk, a little extension wouldn't be a bad idea, but this is just the beginning.

GM's latest prediction for 2009 auto sales, for example, is even worse than 2008. According to Big 3 Congressional bailout testimony, GM's prediction for 2009 is unsustainable if it continues for a few years, regardless of any bailout money. UNSUSTAINABLE. The auto industry, as we know it today, would collapse.

Even if things get better, the Big 3 are still in no position to make a serious stab at fuel economy, especially if the requirement is as aggressive as AB32 - something Obama has supported. According to an economist from Moody's during Congressional testimony on the bailout, the US auto industry will need about 100 billion over the next few years just to survive.

How much more it take to make the Big 3 green?

Not one of the Big 3 has yet developed a cheap hybrid to challenge the Prius. Do they really believe that millions of Americans are going to be able to afford $40,000 Volts in five years? Will GM even be making 100,000 Volts per year by then?

President Obama's plans for an energy moon shot should move forward, and I'm sure it will, but should our moon shot be limited to the Big 3's ability to make it happen? Might it not be better, for instance, for the government to regulate standards and requirements, put all incentives in the hands of consumers, and let ALL automakers COMPETE for consumers, even if it means the UAW loses 1/2 its workforce because its products don't compete?

Or, should Obama save the Big 3 at any and all costs and make the Big 3 essential to our moon shot?

Chevy Volt: The greatest marketing gimmick ever?

Never put off until tomorrow what can be done today

A few years ago, a rumor began to hit the blogosphere about a new vehicle that GM was developing that would leapfrog the Toyota Prius. At that time, as a perpetual critic of GM, I stated that if true, I would become that technology's biggest advocate.

Not long after, GM took me at my word and invited me to the debut of the original Chevy Volt concept at NAIAS. Since then, GM has invited me to numerous press events focused around the Volt, and I've interviewed most major members of the Volt team - a great, passionate and totally committed team.

I've also been around a number of Bob Lutz interviews - group interviews - but I've only been able to ask him one question: Why not directly take on the Prius as the Volt is developed? Lutz, a Prius-hater, wondered why GM would waste its time on such a task and confirmed that the dual mode hybrid technology that GM was putting into SUVs was never intended for small cars (more).

I've never agreed with Lutz and GM on this point, and it's been my major criticism of the Volt - it's not doing enough soon enough. I also don't agree that the Volt is really a Prius-contender, perhaps a plug-in Prius contender, but not a Prius contender.

Now that it has become clear that GM never intended the Volt to be a real world game changer until the later part of the next decade, even as late as 2020, I feel a bit enraged. Not so much about the Volt - it's been pretty obvious that the Volt wouldn't be a significant product until at least 2015 for several months now.

What enrages me is that GM assumed that marketing alone was enough to fight the Prius until technology caught up to the Volt. Instead of diverting a few hundred million of its yearly multibillion dollar advertising budget away from gas-guzzling SUVs to develop a fuel efficient Prius-contender, GM decided more marketing was enough.

Before the Volt debut, Bob Lutz regularly called the Prius a joke and a marketing gimmick. Perhaps the Prius is nothing but a marketing gimmick along the way to electrification, but at least it is a real product widely available for sale - a product that has achieved sales of more than a million very efficient vehicles.

The Volt is still almost two years away from very, very limited sales, and the Volt won't achieve today's Prius sales for at least another decade. If that isn't the ultimate "marketing gimmick", I don't know what is.

Certainly, the Volt is still game-changing technology, but I think there is a real danger of the Volt being too many eggs in one basket. More important, while GM can talk about a gas tax, the reality is that a gas price spike could be just around the corner. If such a spike happens in the next couple of years, all the marketing hype behind the Volt won't help GM one bit nor will 10,000 Volts per year, however, a direct Prius-contender could.

Chrysler's new EVs cast shadow on Chevy Volt

Same 40 miles as the Chevy Volt?

Something stinks in Detroit, but I'm not sure what it is.

Now that Chrysler has rolled out some new or updated EVs at the Detroit Auto Show, such as the pictured 200C EV Concept, I have a few serious questions.

First, is Chrysler even going to be around in 12 months?

Second, if it's so easy for Chrysler to put its range extended EV technology into so many different kinds of vehicle types, while achieving the coveted 40 miles of electric range, why did GM have to change the original style of the Chevy Volt so much?

According to GM, much of that change was due to aerodynamics. In particular, if GM's Voltec, or range extended electric vehicle drive, was going to achieve 40 miles of electricity in the Volt, the aerodynamics of the concept needed to be changed significantly. Several months ago, GM hosted a press conference where reporters went through GM's wind tunnel, Volt design center and 3D imaging lab and, over and over, GM iterated the importance of aerodynamics.

Yet, if aerodynamics are so pertinent to the Volt, why do they seem so much less pertinent to Chrysler's vehicles? Is it just me, or is something just not jiving?

Perhaps, Chrysler is simply willing to use bigger battery packs to resolve this difference. That would, however, mean higher prices - even much higher prices. If true, is that an effective and realistic approach to EV economies of scale? Is it just greenwashing PR?

Or, is Chrysler's technology simply better than the Voltecs powering the Volt?

Can the Cadillac Converj diversify Voltec drive?

Twice the price of the Volt?

I've had conversations with many people whom already believe that the Chevy Volt is too expensive for what it offers. Thus, it appears it will, minimally, be a few generations to bring the Volt's costs down to a more mainstream figure.

Consequently, it isn't surprising that GM would try to add more models to the Flex Drive, now known as Voltec, to help spread costs. Hence, the Cadillac Converj concept.

Yet, how much can Converj help spread costs?

It's obviously a fantastic looking vehicle and it should achieve similar performance to the Volt, yet can GM really move many of these vehicles? Does the Converj offer much momentum to Voltec economies of scale?

Ultimately, I don't think so. More important, if there is a kink in Voltec, what else will GM have to offer in the interim, especially if fuel economy again reigns supreme? Full size dual mode hybrid SUVs?

Considering that there are countless things that could cause an immediate spike in gasoline prices within the next few years, is Voltec really a short-to-midterm solution? As ground breaking as the Volt is, a cheap, small 50+ mpg hybrid might have far more legs than the Volt for several more years, even a decade.

Furthermore, with the release of Ford's new electrification plans, and what we've known of Toyota's plans, the Volt and its Voltec drive are appearing less and less revolutionary each year, in addition to less comprehensive in terms of overall fleet fuel economy. And, with almost two years until the Volt officially debuts, can Voltec really be enough?

Volt plans in A123Systems' loan request?

All Chrysler, or something else?

Not long ago, A123Systems was in the running for the first Chevy Volt battery contract, but it didn't win. Nonetheless, and immediately, GM announced that A123Systems was still under consideration for future generations of Volt battery contracts (and who knows about dual mode plug-ins, such as the proposed Saturn Vue).

Nonetheless, regardless of the Volt contract, A123Systems has serious potential business with a number of other players, such as Chrysler, Better Place, and Nissan. So, the fact that A123Systems is trying to start a lithium battery factory in Michigan with $1.8 billion in government loans isn't that surprising.

GM's Volt buddha, Bob Lutz, stated, "At GM, we see the development of vehicles powered by electricity as key to the transformation of our industry. And advanced battery technology, is at the heart of this transformation. A123's proposal to manufacture advanced battery cells and packs right here in the United States is a positive development for our industry and the nation."

Here! Here!

So, do GM and Lutz believe in the potential of Ford and Chrysler EVs then? Is the Volt not so special? Or, is GM also still very interested in A123Systems as a partner in electrification and, therefore, very interested in such government contracts?

I'm probably reading too much into this loan request, but I certainly hope I'm barking up the right tree.

I've had the opportunity to meet David Vieau, A123Systems president and CEO, and I have absolute faith in that firm. Yes, they're still an up-and-coming company, but GM - as an American company - owes A123 serious consideration, and I get the feeling they are going to get it one way or another.

I know I'll have my fingers crossed for A123.

The Volt will kick EV1 ass

Let's get real folks

I've pretty much had it with the EV1, GM killed the electric car, folks.

Did GM kill the electric car? Shut up.

Every automaker is working on an electric car today. No one killed the electric car. Cheap gas, however, delayed the emergence of the electric car.

Did GM screw up the EV1 program? Absolutely, but without much higher gas prices, how many EV1's could GM really have sold, especially if they sold them at real world cost? Honestly, 5 years ago, how many would have paid $40,000+ for a two-seat vehicle with 100 mile range and 6 hour charge requirements?

Certainly, some would have, but the EV1 would never have achieved the economies of scale to achieve profitability. NEVER. And, for GM haters, even Toyota has publicly stated that it could never achieve profitability on NiMH-powered EVs.

Nonetheless, could GM have parlayed the EV1 into 10,000 units a year and lots of positive green press? Yes. But, what would that have really changed? Ultimately, it would have just greenwashed the fact that gas-guzzlers were still GM's bread and butter.

If GM made a big mistake, in my opinion, it was that it didn't convert its EV1 experience into a Prius-like hybrid to help further develop battery technology while addressing fuel economy immediately. Yet, how much would a Prius-like hybrid have really helped GM? After 10 years of Prius production, it is unlikely that Toyota has yet recovered its total Prius investment.

Does that absolve GM's mistakes? Hell no, but let's keep some perspective people.

And, most important, the EV1 DOES NOT prove that NiMH batteries could now be powering the Chevy Volt. The EV1 had 100 miles of range, then required a 6 hour charge. The Chevy Volt, when not powered by grid electricity, uses electricity created by on-board generator. That means the Volt might go 500 miles without stopping, plugging into the grid, etc. Yet, for that entire 500 miles, the Volt will be relying on its battery pack as electricity always powers the Volt.

When did the EV1 ever go 500 miles without multiple charges? That's right, never. Not even close.

Inevitably, the battery requirements of the Volt and the EV1 are vastly different - it's apples to oranges - especially when you're going to offer a 10 year warranty on the battery pack.

Furthermore, as a consumer, if you could buy a 100 mile range EV1 for the same price as a Volt with unlimited range, which would you buy?

Yet, if gas prices are below $3.00, even the Volt won't really help GM much, and full electrification will still be decades away. So, if you want to get angry about the killing of the electric car, get mad at GM's lobbyists. Get made at your Congressperson. And, if you want to get really crazy, tell your representatives in Washington that you want higher gas taxes.

GM reiterates: Volt on schedule

Still ready for 2010

Earlier this week GM announced that a plant to build engines for both the Chevy Volt and the Chevy Cruze was being delayed pending the bailout. However, GM also announced that this delay would not delay the development of the Volt.

Jon Lauckner, GM's Vice President Global Program Management reiterated that yesterday on GM's FastLaneBlog. "The development of the Volt remains on-schedule despite the ongoing talks in Washington, D.C. It is one of the highest, if not the highest, priority programs in the company and that hasn’t changed, nor has the commitment of resources to fund it. In fact, with the successful completion of each development activity, we have more confidence than ever the Volt will start production as planned in late 2010."

Volt plant delayed

Launch date still on target

GM has delayed plans to begin construction on a new factory that will make engines for both the Chevy Volt and the Chevy Cruze until the bailout issue is resolved to help save its dwindling cash supply. Nonetheless, according to those reports, the Volt will still hit showrooms in 2010.

Chrysler EVs: Not a one trick pony

Chrysler's first electric vehicle?

While many believe that Chrysler won't be around in a couple of years, Chrysler is moving ahead with plans to electrify the automobile. And, in a CNN piece, Chrysler took a poke at the Chevy Volt and claimed that it wouldn't be a one trick pony, or "one electric vehicle company."

Thus, Chrysler's big EV plans are to forgo aerodynamics, weight and fancy designs. Instead, Chrysler will begin its EV program by converting traditional Chrysler vehicles into electric vehicles, while achieving the same kinds of performance as a Volt - all at a cheaper cost to the automaker and to consumers.

So, why didn't GM think of that?

Because, at least initially, it doesn't seem to make sense. For instance, the Volt will use a 16 kwh battery pack - the most critical and expensive component of the Volt. Chrysler's Jeep EV, on the other hand, will use a 27 kwh battery. Yet, somehow, Chrysler's EVs will be more cost-effective?

In the future, however, Chrysler's plans make a bit more sense. New EV production will be coordinated with conventional vehicle production. Thus, every Chrysler auto made can be either a gasoline-powered car, or an EV. Hence, Chrysler will be able to react quickly to market demand if it switches from gas to EV and back to gas again, for instance. Still, that program won't begin until at least 2012, and it seems a little perfect world.

Nonetheless, it's good to see Chrysler developing sophisticated EV plans, even if they are more about bailout bribery than reality. Still, do such plans really make Chrysler any more viable in the next 10 years?

Will the Big 3 ever top the Prius?

The poster child of fuel economy

I'm an advocate for the Chevy Volt. The Volt and, more important, the E Flex Drive powering the Volt, demonstrate that GM is preparing for the future.

Unfortunately, however, 100,000 Volts per year is still many years away. In fact, even though the 3rd generation of the Toyota Prius is set to launch next year, Toyota will probably be rolling out the 4th generation Prius by the time GM is ready to start producing 100,000 Volts per year. By then the Hybrid Synergy Drive powering the Prius will be vastly different than today's version.

Which will be better? Which will be more cost-effective?

On the other hand, Chrysler....well, I don't even know what to say about Chrysler.

Fortunately, Ford's new hybrid powertrain represents some hope, and early Fusion hybrid reports indicate that Ford has a hit on its hands, maybe. With plans to only produce 25,000 Fusion hybrids next year, it's hard not to be a bit concerned. Likewise, why didn't Ford roll out its new hybrid powertrain in a unique, hybrid-only vehicle? Thus, I cannot help but wonder if Ford's new hybrid powertrain is cost-effective, for instance. Still, Ford is a wild card.

So, will the Big 3 ever top the Prius? I don't know, but if it does happen, it won't be any time soon.

GM's plans for the bailout money, for the future

Hard to get excited about hybrids like the Tahoe

Just checked out a video that GM is using to trump up support for the bailout of the US auto industry, something I already support, although tentatively. Yet, this video demonstrates the problem with the Big 3 and with GM. Too much tomorrow. The next big thing, such as the Chevy Volt, is never here today, it's always tomorrow.

No doubt, quality at GM has improved greatly over the years, and massive restructuring has been achieved and more is forthcoming. Cars like the Malibu are solid winners. And, next year, GM will have 9 hybrid cars available for sale, far more than anyone else. Yet, will any of them ever sell at least 50,000 units per year?

And, as exciting as the Chevy Volt is, it will still lag far behind Toyota Prius sales for at least another decade. In fact, while the Volt will be a game changer, it probably won't hit its game-changing stride until close to 2020. By then, it might not be quite as unique as it is today.

The Chevy Volt might be the best green vehicle selling at least 100,000 units per year in 2016, but America, at least those doubting GM, want to see GM challenge the Prius with a vehicle that can sell 100,000 units today.

Carpe diem, GM. Carpe diem.

Chevy Volt cost-competitive by 2016?

A Congressional update

During Congressional testimony today, GM CEO Rick Wagoner was asked when the Chevy Volt would be cost-competitive to gasoline vehicles. Depending on sales volume, Wagoner stated that by 2016 or 2017 the Volt might be cost competitive.

Of course, this might not be in terms of sticker price, but in terms of overall ownership. For instance, a cheaper gas car plus the cost of gasoline versus a more expensive Volt and its energy savings. Likewise, it would take many years of profitability to recover the R&D and manufacturing start-up costs.

While that's good news, it also demonstrates that hybrid vehicles, such as the Volt, can't save GM or any other Big 3 automakers any time soon.

A Better Place than the Volt?

So yesterday?

It's 2016 and you need a new car. Now, you aren't rich. You're middle, middle class and living paycheck to paycheck. You really like the Chevy Volt, but all the consumer tax credits have been consumed, and the upfront costs are just too much. The new Toyota Prius, on the other hand, costs $10,000 less than the Volt, but skyrocketing gasoline prices mean even the fuel efficiency of hybrid cars might not be enough to save you from serious pump pain.

So, instead you buy a Prius-sized electric vehicle from one of Better Place's partners that not only costs several thousand less than the Prius, but your monthly fees for battery and charging are a third the cost of what you'd pay in monthly gas bills.

And, even if you have to take a few long trips that push you beyond Better Place's range, it would still be far cheaper to rent a Prius on those special occasions.

Seems a bit far-fetched, but the way Better Place keeps inking deals, I'm starting to believe that maybe it's possible. Maybe it isn't car makers that are critical to the future, but rather battery and infrastructure companies. And, maybe that future is closer than we think.

Bailout: What would sell you?

Build more hybrids?

If there is one thing that has annoyed me with the US auto industry more than anything the last 5 years, it's been the lack of hybrid cars, especially a Prius-fighter. Even GM's Chevy Volt really isn't a Prius-fighter. For many more years, there is going to be a need for both conventional hybrids and plug-in vehicles. Yet, I've still not heard of a plan from one US automaker to directly challenge the Toyota Prius.

Would a detailed plan to build more hybrid vehicles, in addition to plug-ins, sell you on an automaker bailout? What else would it take? Serious cuts in executive compensation? Serious cuts it UAW benefits?

What would sell you on the legitimacy of a bailout, or a bridge loan, for US automakers? Can anything sell you?

Forget plug-ins without a gas tax?

Insight: More realistic than plug-ins?

When it comes to buying a car, sticker price is the most important issue for most consumers. Unfortunately, hybrid cars and plug-in vehicles cost more, which makes it harder for manufacturers to turn a profit on such vehicles.

Thus, while GM has hung its green PR hat on the Chevy Volt plug-in vehicle, the Volt isn't going to help GM's bottom line for many years.

"In 10 years are they [at GM] going to solve the technological problems with respect to the Volt? Sure," says Maryann Keller, an automotive analyst and author of a book on GM. "But are they going to be able to stake their survival, which is really more of a now to five-year proposition, on it? I'd say they can't. They have to stake their future on Malibus, the Chevy Cruze, and much more conventional technologies."

Add $2.00 gas and how many consumers are really willing to pay a few thousand extra for a hybrid, or several thousand extra for a plug-in hybrid?

Is a mass conversion to plug-in vehicles possible in the next few decades without significantly higher gas prices? Isn't it time to get serious about a new gas tax?