Volt technology only good for Volt-sized cars

Only for the Delta platform

Alan Taub, GM's head of global research and development, recently told AutoCar that the Voltec powertrain powering the Chevy Volt is only viable for Volt-sized vehicles. According to Taub, GM's range extended electric vehicle technology is too big for cars smaller than the Volt, and adding batteries for larger vehicles would make the powertrain too heavy.

Instead, GM will probably look to a plug-in version of its dual mode hybrid technology for bigger than Volt vehicles, and it's new BAS hybrid powertrain for smaller hybrid cars.

The Chevy Volt and the end of Government Motors

You've come a long way baby

So, GM repaid the final $5.8 billion owed in government bailout loans. That's great. Of course, it might have been a bit nicer had GM returned the people's money with actual profits, rather than a government escrow account, but the perception of Government Motors is undoubtedly holding GM back. Paying off this debt helps remove that ugly blemish.

Nevertheless, $5.8 billion is pocket change. GM's real debt to America is ....

Finish: The Chevy Volt and the end of Government Motors

Chevy Volt heads to China next year

Ready to take on BYD

GM continues to ramp up its Chinese investments, and the automaker plans to double that amount of models it sells in China over the next few years.

One of the first new vehicles to hit China will be the Chevy Volt, which will launch late this year in the US, followed by the Chinese launch in 2011.

Related: Does China own the keys to the Chevy Volt?

Does China own the keys to the Chevy Volt?

GM's plug-in wild card?

What's the coolest car in China? It's a Buick, of course, which is good news for GM, as China is the hottest automotive market in the world. In fact, quite soon GM could be selling more than 3 million cars in China annually.

And that's the thought I couldn't get out of my head yesterday during a GM conference call on the Volt and the lithium-ion batteries powering GM's EV. During the call, GM mentioned the importance of its battery lab in Shanghai, China, a lab focused on next generation propulsion systems, such as the Voltecs powering the Chevy Volt.

Why care?

China is quickly becoming a very important lithium ion manufacturer and the country is developing fairly aggressive plans to increase electric vehicle adoption. If GM can work this relationship successfully, they might be able to own a piece of lithium-cell manufacturing and increase the profitability of all their battery-powered vehicles. Moreover, selling Voltec vehicles in China helps scale down costs in all markets.

Certainly, GM's battery-powered dreams are not dependent upon China, but the potential of GM's Chinese play is extremely intriguing.

And the Volt charges ahead

Ready to end your foreign oil dependence?

Just got off a conference call with GM regarding the Chevy Volt. In a nutshell, everything is going great. After testing the Volt battery pack in essentially every type of weather and driving condition possible, all systems are go for the November launch. Still, a few notes did stick out.

First, 40 miles of EV range has been the average, although 20 percent variation in both directions is expected. Once in range extended mode, the Volt should still achieve about 50 mpg and offer a range of at least 300 additional miles beyond the original 40 miles of EV range.

Second, GM is forecasting a nice price reduction in battery costs by the second generation thanks to supply base efficiencies, and the third generation battery pack could see as much as a 50 percent reduction in cost.

Third, while GM seemed very careful on this issue, the future of the Volt could include a smaller battery pack and shorter EV range. Again, GM was very guarded on this point. Likewise, GM's Andrew Farah, the leader of the Volt program, claimed that new energy densities in lithium-ion technology might also provide the same 40 miles of EV range but in a smaller battery pack.

Nonetheless, my read in between the lines is that GM is increasing their Volt focus on costs, and I believe that if GM realizes that a 20 or 30 mile Volt would double sales, then they'd offer such an option by the third generation battery pack. Of course, such a battery pack is still several years away.

Chevy Volt on track for extremely limited late 2010 launch

Coming in November to a dealer near you?

There is still much software to be written and much needed testing, but the first Chevy Volt hit the assembly line at GM's Hamtramck plant Monday "to ferret out any areas that are difficult to assemble" according to GM's Bob Lutz. Most important, the Volt program is on track for its November launch.

Nonetheless, for those longing a Volt, get ready to wait much longer as only about 4,000 Volts will be produced during its first year of production.

When will a plug-in vehicle outsell the Toyota Prius?

Will the plug-in Prius ever outsell the conventional Prius?

Why did GM kill the Cadillac Converj, a plug-in based upon the same Voltecs hybrid drive as the upcoming Chevy Volt? Wouldn't making as many range-extended EVs across as many models as possible help bring down costs quicker?

"Sure, each Cadillac Converj would not lose as much money as each Chevy Volt," reports MotorTrend's Todd Lassa. "But it still would lose money, and the best way to limit losses from new technology is to limit volume. "This Cadillac doesn't lose as much money as this Chevy" isn't a business case. Volt is designed to be a "volume" model, eventually produced in the tens of thousands, but it will be years before we see that."

Years before we see tens of thousands of Volts produced per year? The Toyota Prius is already selling in the hundreds of thousands, so the Volt seems at least a decade away from topping the Prius. Then again, the Volt? Unfortunately, we've known about GM's limited production numbers for some time, so I doubt the Volt will be the first plug-in to contend with the Prius.

Besides, the Nissan Leaf has been the real plug-in story these days........

Finish: When will a plug-in vehicle outsell the Toyota Prius?

Lutz out, new Prius-fighting hybrids in?

Time to take on the Prius

I've met GM's Bob Lutz a number of times, and I've largely been in awe of the guy every time, even though I've never really agreed with him on hardly any issue. Consequently, I'm glad that Mr. Lutz is retiring.

It's not that Lutz didn't do a lot of great things for GM, he did. Still, his hatred of the Toyota Prius - envy deep down inside I bet - was a constant topic around Lutz for many years, and Lutz's views cast a huge shadow upon GM.

Some time back, before Michael Jordan retired the second time, but before the third retirement, Coach Pat Riley stated that no one would dethrone the Chicago Bulls until Jordan left the game.

In my over-exagerated opinion, Lutz was GM's Michael Jordan, and he would have never allowed GM to produce a hybrid to directly take on the Prius. Such a vehicle, unfortunately, would confirm that GM was wrong regarding the Prius and hybrid cars oh so many years ago.

Instead, Lutz was always focused on beating the Prius, proving the whole "science experiment", as Lutz often called the Prius, wrong. That Lutzian desire led to the 'cheaper' BAS hybrid, the 'more technologically advanced' dual mode hybrid, and finally to the Chevy Volt.

Yet, as GM has sold thousands of hybrids over that time, Toyota has sold millions.

Just as disappointing, the truth is, the Volt is not going to challenge the Prius either. OK. Maybe the Volt will challenge the plug-in Prius version of the Prius, but that's it, as both plug-in hybrids are destined to remain low volume vehicles for years, maybe even a decade. Ironically, however, according to the experts, GM might have again missed the mark by putting too big of a battery pack in the Volt to ever be cost-effective without a major breakthrough in lithium battery technologies.

By no means does that mean the Volt was a mistake. It simply means it's not enough, especially in the short term. For the next 10 - 20 years, conventional hybrid vehicles like Prius are going to far outsell plug-ins like the Chevy Volt, and GM needs a more well-rounded hybrid portfolio until the Volt achieves its potential.

Of course, in no way does Lutz's retirement mean new Prius-fighting hybrids are coming from GM, but at least it seems like a legitimate possibility now, especially considering the never-ending shakeup taking place at GM.

Study - Chevy Volt wrong path to plug-in success?

40 miles of EV range the wrong approach?

Over that last few years a number of battery studies have suggested that, based on current lithium-ion technologies, small-battery plug-in hybrids offer the most compelling overall case to consumers in terms of performance and cost-effectiveness.

Obviously, this flies in the face of not just the Chevy Volt and it's 40 miles of EV range, but also the government's entire plug-in tax credit program, something Hybridcarblog has asserted since the program was conceived, most recently in Does the government have battery-powered cars all wrong?

A new study by UC-Davis also concludes that small battery plug-in hybrids seem to make the most sense not just technologically, but also for consumers, making the government's "4.0 kWh lower limit on battery size difficult to reconcile" according to the researchers.

GM's battery director leaves Volt behind

Leaving her babies behind?

Denise Gray, GM's Director of Global Battery Engineering, is leaving GM to take a senior leadership position with an unannounced California start-up.

Gray has worked with GM for 30 years and took over her director role in 2006. Her main task has been building GM's battery labs in preparation for the Chevy Volt, a division that has grown from 25 to 200 employees.

In the last year or so there have been a few high profile departures and shake-ups within the Volt program, especially in the top ranks. Of course, with executive salary caps in place, maybe Gray and others have had little choice for advancement within the company.

What do 100,000 Volts, Leafs or Prius hybrids per year really mean?

No impact on foreign oil dependence for 2 decades?

For several years now, Toyota has sold more than 100,000 Prius hybrids per year in the US. In fact, Toyota has sold more than 1 million hybrid cars in the US alone.

Yet, what effect have one million hybrids had on US foreign oil dependence? None.

Soon, GM will launch the highly-anticipated Chevy Volt, yet it might be a decade before GM is selling 100,000 Volts per year. Likewise, late this year Nissan will begin US production of the Leaf electric car. When Nissan's new production facility is fully operational, it will produce up to 150,000 Leafs per year.

Yet again, what impact will these vehicles have on foreign oil dependence?

Unfortunately, according to numerous studies, ALL electric vehicle sales in the US, combined, won't have any noticeable impact on foreign oil dependence for probably another TWO decades, and even then the effect might still be marginal.

Certainly, automakers have to start electrifying the automobile somewhere, and the Prius, Volt and Leaf are all noble and important products. Nonetheless, their impact upon the environment and foreign oil dependence will remain meaningless for decades.

Is this really the best that America can do?

Buy a Volt in DC, Michigan or California, only, to start

Politicians, Entertainers and Home-Staters

When the Chevy Volt hits showrooms at the end of this year, it will only be available in Michigan, California and Washington, DC.

No word yet on final roll out plans for the rest of the US.

What if you can't afford a Chevy Volt?

A fantastic car for 5 percent of car consumers?

In recent months I've been criticized many times for being too critical of US automakers. Ironically, a year ago or so, I was criticized many times for being too supportive of the Chevy Volt.

So, what's my deal?

Ultimately, I became interested in hybrid cars after 9/11 because I decided that America's foreign oil dependence was beginning to cause far more harm than good for America and the world. Thus, hybrid cars presented a great way to take immediate action today, while investing in the potential of fuel cell vehicles and all other battery-powered vehicles for tomorrow.

For this reason, I was very supportive of the Chevy Volt at first. Yet, as time has passed from the debut of the Volt, I've realized that the Volt has almost become a distraction to my cause.

Finish reading: What if you can't afford a Chevy Volt. Thinking about foreign oil dependence

Toyota powertrain exec admires Chevy Volt

A sensible approach to plug-ins?

In a recent interview with CNN, Bill Reinert, Toyota's head of advanced powertrain research, explains that Toyota is not going to rush into pure electric cars. A combination of costs and technological limitations ensure, according to Reinert, that EVs are still far from mass consumer adoption.

Therefore, underwhelming EV consumers with expensive technology that falls short of expectations could slow EV penetration long term, according to Reinert.

However, in the interview Reinert does single out the Chevy Volt as a more sensible approach to pure EVs because it provides a realistic solution to range anxiety.

10 percent green equals 100 percent greenwashed

A meaningless hybrid?

If you're at the Detroit Auto Show, or following the coverage, you might think the automotive world has really changed. All our troubles are behind and new green vehicles, particularly hybrids and plug-in vehicles, are set to make everything better.

Yet, in ten years less than 10 percent of America's automotive fleet will be hybrid or plug-in - at best - according to almost every automotive analyst and researcher.

Anyway, this year in Detroit the Ford Fusion hybrid was awarded The North American Car of the Year. And it's deserving. Everything about the Fusion hybrid is great, except for sales. Sure, almost 30,000 Ford consumers bought a Fusion hybrid last year, however, over 400,000 Ford consumers bought a gas-guzzling Ford F150.

And next year in Detroit, the Chevy Volt will probably win The North American Car of the Year. Yet, the Volt will probably move even less units than did the Fusion hybrid in its first year. Even more alarming, by 2020, according to GM executives like Bob Lutz, plug-ins like the Volt will still only appeal to about 5 - 10 percent of consumers.

Today, even hybrid king Toyota only offers the third most fuel efficient fleet in America - despite selling 200,000 hybrids - thanks to its many gas-guzzler sales.

Sadly, in tens years the US auto fleet won't be much more fuel efficient than it is today, and green vehicles will still be just a niche, but at least we'll get to enjoy a decade of superb greenwashing along the way.

GM produces first Volt battery pack

Two of the Volt's first test batteries

GM's Brownstown Battery Pack Assembly Plant produced its first lithium-ion battery pack for the Chevy Volt today.

GM CEO Ed Whitacre said at the event that a few Volts might be sold before November, when the Volt is to officially go on sale.

Overall, Volt production will be limited, at least through the first full year of production, but should eventually reach about 60,000 Volts per year.

2010: The big questions

The rubber finally hits the road

2010. Here we come.

While 2010 isn't going to be quite as significant for the hybrid market as I would have expected a few years ago, there are a few interesting stories developing:

1.) Will any hybrid, aside from the Prius, sell 50,000 units in one year?
2.) Can the Honda CR-Z hybrid reinvigorate Honda's hybrid sales?
3.) Will the Hyundai Sonata hybrid make it to America, and how will the Sonata hybrid compare to the Toyota Camry hybrid and the Ford Fusion hybrid in terms of price and fuel economy?
4.) What will be Toyota's next dedicated hybrid, and how many other hybrids will Toyota announce, debut, etc?
5.) Finally, after years of hype the Chevy Volt will go on sale. How many units will GM produce in 2010? Will there be any delays? Final pricing, options?

Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

The king of hybrid cars

For years now GM has been on the verge of toppling Toyota's hybrid cars according to GM's Bob Lutz. The dual mode hybrid powertrain was to be more sophisticated. The BAS mild hybrid was to be cheaper.

Neither has been competitive.

Might all that change when the Chevy Volt beats Toyota to market with a plug-in hybrid vehicle?

How is that even possible, some might ask? How could GM beat the king of hybrid cars to the plug-in hybrid market?

To answer that question, one needs to step back in time several years.

Finish: Toyota's hybrid vision leads the auto industry

Only 17 percent of consumers might pay extra to plug-in

Forever a niche vehicle at best?

Haven't had time to fully read the latest plug-in hybrid report by Pike Research, but I just finished CNET's review. Overall, the report suggests that only 17 percent of US consumers might be willing to pay a premium for plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

And, if plug-ins do 'take off', they will probably be short range plug-in hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid rather than the Chevy Volt, or short range pure EVs, as plug-in vehicles with smaller battery packs will be more cost-viable for the majority of consumers.

As I blogged early this week in Great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug to hybrid cars?, this report seems to also suggest that conventional hybrid cars will make a more appealing buying case to the majority of US consumers for at least the next few decades.

Along those lines, since full hybrids such as the Toyota Prius can so easily be converted into plug-in hybrids, wouldn't such vehicles more immediately tackle global warming and foreign oil dependency today, while providing a 'cash for plug-in conversion' option tomorrow?

Plug-in Prius in about 2 years

Still basically on track

Toyota will sell a plug-in version of the Toyota Prius in about 2 years. According to Toyota, the plug-in version will be affordable, and the automaker hopes to sell several tens of thousands of these plug-in hybrids.

The new plug-in Prius will offer about 12 - 14 miles of EV range, dependent upon road conditions before needing to utilize its gasoline engine. In contrast, GM's Chevy Volt will offer about 40 miles of EV range, dependent upon driving conditions.

However, the Prius will come with a cheaper price tag than the Volt. Still, initially, the Volt will qualify for a larger federal tax credit - at least the first 200,000 Volts - so pricing might be closer than real world costs thanks to the credits.

8,000 to 60,000 Volts per year

Are you feeling lucky?

Today, as expected, GM announced its investment of $336 million to upgrade its Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant for production of the Chevy Volt, bringing GM's total Volt investment to $700 million.

While greats news for Volt fans, you'll have to be pretty lucky if you want to buy a Volt when it goes on sale in late 2010. According to the DetroitNews, GM will produce 8,000 Volts in 2011 and eventually increase production to as many as 60,000 Volts per year.

When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

Toyota the plug-in naysayer?

During a period of more than 3 years Toyota tested about 150 lithium-powered plug-in Prius hybrids - a fleet still larger than GM's current Chevy Volt fleet - logging more than 1 million real world miles in almost every type of driving condition imaginable. The lithium batteries used proved safe and reliable, but still cost-ineffective.

Next month, Toyota will produce another 350 plug-in hybrids, followed by another 150 early next year, for further testing. This time however, the goal isn't based on safety and reliability. Instead, Toyota's new goal is to provide the most cost-effective plug-in hybrid package based on real world driving needs and conditions.

Over the last few years Toyota has claimed that they would produce plug-in hybrids as soon as the technology was ready, and for Toyota 'ready' means cost-effective in addition to safe and reliable. Coincidentally, Toyota knows a little something about the cost-effectiveness of new technologies.

Today, about 70 - 80 percent of new car customers are interested in purchasing hybrid cars, a segment dominated by Toyota. With such high interest, why is market share still only about 3 percent? According to consumer surveys it all boils down to costs, and consumer surveys on plug-in hybrids tell a similar story.

So, why is Toyota bashed for stating the obvious?

Finish: When did Toyota pull the plug on plug-in hybrids?

I think I love the Converj

Volt's bigger, better little brother

Not much green action so far today. Ran into Adam Carolla checking out the new Cadillac Converj, GM's luxury version of the Chevy Volt. For all you KROQ'ers, I gave a shout out to Mr.Bertram!

Anyway, I know the Converj isn't a car for the masses. It never will be, regardless of how well Voltec costs scale. Still, this is an impressive package.

I can't help but want one. I think I'll start saving my pennies now, or better yet, my lunch money. Shoot, I might even give up my beer money.

Sure, the Volt has more long term potential, but in the short term I can't find any reason why the Converj couldn't completely dominate the luxury plug in market.

Can GM take it to the next level?

Unprecedented green movement

GM showed off, of course, the Chevy Volt and the Chevy Cruze today. Not a lot of new, groundbreaking info regarding the Volt, although yesterday I learned that the Volt is more aerodynamic than both the Toyota Prius and the Honda Insight.

The Chevy Cruze looks like a real winner.

Overall GM's big message was its commitment to green technologies. Sounds great in theory, but can GM turn this theory into reality? For instance, can GM become a fleet fuel economy leader, rather than pulling up the rear as it does today?

Small, Toyota Prius-fighting GM hybrids still a possibility

GM's hybrid story still developing

Sure, the Chevy Volt is the poster child for GM's clean and green efforts. And, even though GM doesn't like to call the Volt a hybrid, the Volt is also GM's marquee hybrid. But that doesn't mean GM's hybrid story is anywhere near the end.

Yesterday, I learned that GM isn't just redeveloping its upcoming lithium-powered BAS hybrid drive, nor just downsizing its dual mode hybrid powertrain for small SUVs, such as the phased out Saturn Vue. In fact, according to sources inside the General, GM is also working on a new hybrid drive derived from the dual mode drive, but redeveloped for small vehicles, including 4 cylinder cars.

Of course, it's possible that such a hybrid drive will never hit the market. Still, the possibility of small GM hybrid cars that could directly compete with the Toyota Prius is a positive sign. Always good to have your eggs in a few different baskets.

Chevy Volt EV range and fuel economy updated, Part II

38 mpg in the city?

Earlier this week Edmunds.com suggested a few new things about the Chevy Volt that I covered in Chevy Volt EV range and fuel economy updated. First, Edmunds claimed that the Chevy Volt, once EV range expires, would only achieve about 38 mpg. Second, Edmunds claimed that for the average driver - 15,000 miles per year - the Volt would cost about the same as a 59 mpg vehicle to fuel per year.

Earlier today I was at a GM sponsored media event and I brought these issues up to some GM reps. I was told that the numbers put forth by Edmunds are pure speculation.

Of course, that doesn't mean that Edmunds isn't necessarily speculating up the right tree. Only reality will tell. Anyway, this is an angle I'm hoping to further pursue in the next couple of days at the LA Auto Show.

Chevy Volt for California only in 2010

Can it shock the the Golden State?

The Chevy Volt should meet its late 2010 production date, however, the Volt will only be available for sale in California until sometime in 2011.

Overall, seems like a fairly smart move. California is the by far leading state for the purchase of hybrid cars.

Chevy Volt EV range and fuel economy updated

The Volt's lithium-ion battery pack

GM finally confirmed that the Chevy Volt will utilize an 8 gallon fuel tank to supplement the Volt's EV range.

So, what does that mean for the Volt's real world range and fuel economy?

Once the lithium ion battery pack drops down to 30 percent of its full charge, then the 1.4 liter engine begins generating electricity to power the Volt. The battery, however, is never recharged in this state. Still, in this state the Volt can travel at least another 300 miles, and then the battery has to be recharged. That will take about 8 hours at 120V, although a special 240V supply could drop that charge time down to about 3 hours.

But that won't matter as long as you only drive 40 miles or less, right?

Not necessarily. According to the latest reports, "Most people will get less than 40 miles. " And, once electric range is used and the Volt is dependent upon its gasoline engine, the Volt's city fuel economy will probably be around 38 mpg.

Volt set to charge GM's IPO

Time to put the past to rest?

Will next year provide a big boost in auto sales? The kind of boost that can turn losses into profits for much of the US auto industry? The kind of sales that could make a GM IPO at the end of 2010 enticing to investors?

Probably not according to a forecast from Fitch Ratings. While there should be a small bump upwards in US sales - around 11.1 million total unit sales - it probably won't be big enough to result in the cash flow needed to fix GM's balance sheet.

But, could the Chevy Volt be a wild card in that forecast?

What better way to head into an IPO than with positive buzz, especially the kind of green and foreign-oil fighting buzz that only the official release of the Chevy Volt can provide? It's unique. It's next gen technology. It's green and it's ready to launch 'at the end of 2010'.

Finish: Chevy Volt set to charge GM's IPO

Prius and Volt will share GoodYear Assurance Tires

The tire for hybrids

The GoodYear Assurance Fuel Max tire will become the standard tire of the 2010 Toyota Prius. Additionally, reports indicate the Assurance will also be the tire of the Chevy Volt.

Buy a Volt only in some areas?

Limited geographic availability?

At the LA Auto Show GM will release its sale's plans for the Chevy Volt, and it appears the Volt will not be available in all GM markets. Of course, that shouldn't really come as a surprise, since not all GM dealerships will be initially trained to service the Volt.

Besides, demand for the Volt will far out-weight supplies until GM can seriously ramp up production, and that might not happen until the second generation Volt is launched.

Chevy Volt battery testing going very well

On track for its 2010 launch

GM held a press conference today largely focused on the status of Chevy Volt battery testing. With more than 80 Volts on the road and 300 Volt battery packs under test, results have so far been excellent.

Thus far more than 1/4 million test miles have been completed, including hot weather and mountain testing - critical driving conditions for battery-powered vehicles. So far, the Volt has performed as expected.

Nonetheless, there have been some minor issues.

For instance noise, vibration and harshness are proving a bit more difficult than expected, although that's not unusual. Today's hybrid cars have experienced similar issues. More important, GM expects to resolve these noise problems.

Likewise, the Volt's battery chemistry has been undergoing minor tweaks as testing has identified small issues. Cell chemistry is on its 4th iteration, although all updates have been very minor. More important, there will be no further iterations or updates. Overall, the battery pack is well protected and the cells have worked perfectly thus far.

Ultimately, GM expects the battery pack to last at least 10 years, however, local weather and driving conditions could lengthen the life span of the battery pack according to GM.

Best Plug-ins: EVs, Range Extended EVs or Plug-in hybrids

Range extended EVs are better?

Just finished watching one of the latest Chevy Volt YouTube videos on the virtues of range extended EVs versus pure EVs, a topic that tens of billions in federal funds could soon be built around.

So, what's the best plug-in vehicle? Which plug-in vehicle is a legitimate game-changer?

Let's imagine it's 2012. Numerous plug-in vehicles are available for sale. Which one is best? A short range plug-in hybrid, such as a Toyota Prius plug-in, or a full electric vehicle, such as the Nissan Leaf? Or, how about a combination of the two, such as a Chevy Volt?

Finish: Best Plug-ins: EVs, Range Extended EVs or Plug-in hybrids

Cadillac Converj could be Volt's best friend

Ready to plug in this Cadillac?

I'm a fan of the Chevy Volt, a pretty big fan actually - at least in the technology powering the Volt. Yet, in the next decade Toyota will sell millions of hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius, as GM sells hundreds of thousands of Volts.

Unfortunately, the technology powering the Volt just won't be cost-effective for the masses until the 2020s, minimally, as the Prius turns into a profit machine and a gateway to Toyota plug-in vehicles.

However, the Volt's range extended plug-in drive might just be the perfect fit for Cadillac. And according to the DetroitNews, the Cadillac Converj plug-in hybrid has been approved by GM's board.

Already Toyota has proven that there is a market for luxury hybrid vehicles, and it seems the market for the Converj hybrid could be even far riper. American-made and green, this plug-in might just be the ultimate bling for luxury consumers.

Even better, a successful Converj could provide a big boost towards scaling down the Volt's costs, and I'd bet the Converj will be a wildly successful Cadillac and luxury vehicle.

Higher gas prices good for Volt, but what about GM?

When will it be profitable?

At a plug-in conference hosted by GM in Detroit last week, news of rising gas prices was seen as a good thing.

"Every penny added to the price of gas makes alternative power just a little more attractive," said Tony Posawatz, head of the Volt program. "If petroleum hit $150 a barrel and stays there, he and others agree, the low cost of electricity would make plug-ins fairly competitive on an operating cost basis."

So, what's good for the Chevy Volt is good for GM?

Let's say gas hits a sustained $150 per barrel and $4.00+ at the pump in 2011, during the first full year of Volt production. That would be good for GM? While such gas prices might make the Volt more competitive - after a $7500 tax credit - what about the Silverado, Traverse or Impala, for instance?

Today, GM's profits are not driven by fuel efficiency. Can the Chevy Cruze and a limited production Volt change the troubles GM felt during the gas spike of 2008?

It seems to me, what's good for the Volt is not good for GM, at least not any time soon. While higher gas prices might make the Volt more competitive, can higher gas prices really make GM more competitive and profitable without radical changes to their product lineup?

The perfect hybrid

And the winner is.....

Is the Toyota Prius the perfect hybrid? What if you added some extra batteries and a plug, would that make the Prius the perfect hybrid? How much electric range should it have, as much as possible?

Is 40 miles of electric range the key to plug-in hybrids, such as GM's Chevy Volt is expected to provide?

According to GM's research 90 percent of commutes average less than 40 miles. But, what does 'average' really mean? Isn't it possible that many people drive much shorter distances most days per week, but on one or two days per week, they drive much further?

If your average commute to and from work is only 10 miles or less, and the rest of your mileage is made up of much longer trips, what's the most efficient and cost effective hybrid to meet your needs? Is it a conventional hybrid, a short range plug-in hybrid or a long range plug-in hybrid?

Inevitably, it seems the perfect hybrid will be different for different consumers based on many different needs and wants. Still, is it simply premature to even discuss the perfect hybrid?

Plug-in Prius: The end of Toyota?

Simply too conservative?

The Chevy Volt will offer 40 miles of electric range. The plug-in Prius, on the other hand, will only offer 15 or 20 miles of electric range.

So, is the Volt twice as good as a plug-in Prius?

Transportation program director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, Roland Hwang, told the NYTimes, "From an environmental perspective, the more [electric] range the better."

So, what's Toyota's excuse for its lack of environmental commitment?

At this point in the development of plug-in hybrids, Toyota believes the key to success will be driven by cost-effectiveness. And lower range plug-in hybrids, Toyota believes, make it "easier to promise low cost and durability from the get-go," notes one expert in this informative Times article.

Is Toyota being too conservative with its plug-in hybrid technology?

Really, hasn't Toyota always been boring and conservative? Isn't that exactly what Prius haters dislike most about Toyota's top selling hybrid? Why would they approach plug-in hybrids any differently?

Will the Chevy Volt change GM?

Too many questions?

Since the debut of the Chevy Volt, I've gone from huge advocate to critic. It's not that I've given up on the Volt. If the battery is going to power the future of the automobile, then the Volt is critically important to GM's future.

Still, the Volt's game-changing potential will not be realized for at least a decade. Even then, any number of technological breakthroughs could quickly marginalize the importance of the Volt.

On the other hand, for the next 10 years, minimally, Toyota Prius sales will dwarf Volt sales. Likewise, with Prius-derivatives and other upcoming hybrid cars, Toyota might be selling 1 million hybrids per year as GM sells 50,000 Volts per year.

Ultimately, the Volt isn't a game changing vehicle for most Americans. Even according to Bob Lutz, it's only a vehicle for the 5 percent of Americans that are willing to pay a good chunk of extra cash to help the environment or to fight foreign oil dependence.

Of course, the same could be said of the Prius. However, the Prius will be a cash cow in the next decade. So, perhaps the same future awaits the Volt.

Until then, the Volt's game-changing abilities will be limited to perception. That alone could make the Volt an asset. Still, wouldn't a few cars on the government's Most Fuel Efficient list be even more game-changing?

GM's shock and awe campaign

Can GM move beyond its gas-guzzling image?

GM's new marketing campaign is going to "shock Americans into a new awareness about the competitiveness of GM products," according to Bob Lutz.

Via any method of comparison, GM believes, their products are as good as any other automaker. And, according to the latest quality rankings, etc., GM has a case.

But is marketing GM's best path to changing perception?

Several years ago, Bob Lutz claimed it would have been smart for GM to utilize just a fraction of one year's multi-billion dollar marketing budget to fund the production of a Toyota Prius-contender. Eventually, Lutz's realization evolved into the Chevy Volt, however, the Volt won't come close to challenging Prius sales for more than a decade, if ever.

While the Volt won't offer game-changing sale's numbers, it will drive a lot of green buzz, but will it bring new consumers to GM?

Ultimately, GM has made huge strides in quality, but according to a recent automotive supplier's survey, for instance, GM's innovation is still lacking. Obviously, the Volt will help address that issue, at least in terms of perception, but it seems to me that GM needs an innovative fuel efficient vehicle that can sell at least 100,000 units per year.

Possibly, the Chevy Cruze could be that product, however, the Cruze will never appear as innovative as the Prius. If GM can find a way to address that product gap, with a product and not marketing, I'd bet GM's perception problems would need far less marketing "shock".

Toyota won't rush into plug-in Prius rollout

Plug-in leases coming soon

Toyota is on track to lease 500 plug-in Prius hybrids before the end of this year. According to Toyota, these plug-in hybrids will offer an electric range of 12 miles, afterwhich the Prius functions pretty much like a standard 3rd generation Prius.

Thus far, Toyota has claimed that its lithium battery production has proven reliable and that its manufacturing process appears sound. Hopefully that trend holds true as production scales upward.

Nonetheless, Toyota is not in a race to bring such technology to the mass market.

"Although we like to be first to market with these technologies, it's more important that we are best to market," says Irv Miller, Toyota's environmental and public affairs group vice president in the U.S.

Unfortunately, no real word on costs just yet, although the plug-in Prius should be a good bit cheaper than the Chevy Volt thanks to its shorter EV range and smaller battery pack. And costs, according to recent polls, will be critical to successful PHEV adoption.

Still, does Toyota's plug-in Prius really mean much until Toyota can replace the NiMH batteries in the the current Prius with lithium? Isn't that the best path to economies of scale for lithium production and, eventually, plug-in vehicles?

Poll: Most Americans won't buy PHEVs

A Prius before plug-in conversion

Just build plug-in hybrids and they will come?

Not so according to another poll. Survey data by Pike Research finds that only 48 percent of Americans are willing to consider a plug-in hybrid vehicle that can achieve 40 miles of pure electric range.

However, 83 percent of those interested in buying such a plug-n hybrid would only be willing to buy a plug-in hybrid if it cost no more than 10 percent, or less, of the cost of a conventional gas powered vehicle. Unfortunately, many hybrid cars can't even come close to those economics, let alone far more expensive plug-in vehicles.

I guess Bob Lutz knows exactly what he's talking about when he claims that only 5 percent of US auto consumers are willing to buy plug-in hybrids such as the Chevy Volt.

Audi President claims Volt and EVs for "idiots" and "intellectual elite"

"A car for idiots"?

During an MSN interview Audi of America President Johan de Nysschen called the Chevy Volt "a car for idiots" largely because of its price premium. In fact, he claims the Volt will be a failure, but that the government will continue to subsidize the Volt because of its investment into GM.

Likewise, de Nysschen also slammed full electric cars saying, "They're for the intellectual elite who want to show what enlightened souls they are." However, he did concede that, theoretically, plug-in hybrids could offer advantages over diesel.

Mazda's waste of range extended EV technology?

Dependent upon hydrogen?

I've been following Mazda's hydrogen vehicles for some time simply because if hydrogen moves forward, Mazda might have the perfect interim technology: vehicles that can run on both hydrogen and gasoline. Thus, infrastructure problems could be somewhat alleviated.

However, an even better idea is Mazda's hybrid version of this concept. Much like GM's Chevy Volt, Mazda's hydrogen hybrid would utilize hydrogen to generate electricity to power its version of a series hybrid, or range extended EV, as GM prefers to call the technology. Thus, much like the Volt, many Mazda hydrogen hybrid drivers might never need liquid fuel.

Still, hydrogen, right?

Nonetheless, it is interesting that Mazda is, and has been, developing technology very similar to the Chevy Volt, yet there is no buzz. Moreover, while hydrogen plug-in hybrids are a good long term focus, why not more focus on a pure gasoline version to challenge the Volt in the short term?

Foreign oil dependence on TheStreet

Should plug-ins be the only path to foreign oil dependence?

TheStreet.com asked me to be a guest contributor recently, so they published Foreign Oil Versus the GM Volt this morning (although I didn't pick the title).

Ultimately, I've become very critical of the Chevy Volt compared to a year ago, when I was a fairly strong advocate. While I agree that it's important to bring this technology to market, such vehicles are decades away from making a major impact on America's energy paradigm.

More important, while GM can hype the petroleum-free driving of the Volt, such hype can't hide the fact that the Volt will be a limited production vehicle for most of the next decade and it won't be cost-effective and profitable until well into the 2020s. Thus, it will be 30 to 40 years before such plug-ins can provide a dramatic impact on ending foreign oil dependence.

So, I can't help but ask, how many more decades before foreign oil dependence leads to another bin Laden, another 9/11, another major gas spike?

Ultimately, the Volt isn't the source of my angst, my focus is purely on foreign oil dependence. Unfortunately, as the Volt moves closer to reality, it has become a tool for illustrating just how far away America is from tackling foreign oil dependence.

Energy independence: Tax credits for the Volt forever?

What's the Volt worth to America?

What's a better deal, the Chevy Volt or the Toyota Prius?

The Prius, by a long shot according to analysis by CNNMoney. Even if a Volt driver were to use only electricity to power the Volt and gas were to hit $5.00, the Prius is a still a better deal, even after the government's $7500 tax credit for the Volt.

Of course, in the real world, most Volt drivers will use gasoline, as range will easily fall under 30 miles for many drivers. In fact, aggressive Volt drivers might only achieve 10 miles of electric range according to some battery experts. For such drivers, the Volt would become terribly cost-ineffective.

Then again, the Prius isn't always the most cost-effective option for those seeking to buy a small car and save money on gas CNN points out. Yet, the Prius has still become a pretty big hit.

So, the Volt will probably be a hit as well, at least initially, but what happens after the tax credits for the Volt expire, and early adopters have filled their new technology fix?

Moreover, if the Prius and similar hybrid cars are only able to achieve just a few percent of market share, how are even less-cost effective plug-in vehicles supposed to significantly increase this share?

Is America on a real on a path to energy independence?

GM using Volt mileage to sell other vehicles

A good reason to buy a Chevy Equinox?

The Chevy Volt is still more than a year from hitting dealer showrooms, yet GM is already using the Volt to sell other GM vehicles.

This morning on the Cars.com website, I saw a new GM 230 ad, where the zero of the 230 is a plug-in socket, which then morphs into an ad for a 30 mpg Chevy Equinox.

Is that what petroleum-free driving is all about? Someday we're [GM] going to sell a limited production 230 mpg Volt, so go out and buy a 30 mpg Equinox today?

Is that really what the Volt is about?

Lutz on Fast Money: Dodging questions on Volt viability?

The Vice Chairman at his best

Last night Melissa Lee of Fast Money asked Bob Lutz how many units of the Chevy Volt GM expected to sell. Instead of answering, Lutz switched the conversation to how much better the Volt is than the competition. Fine. Maybe it is on a technological level.

Lee then followed up by asking when consumers can expect to reap the benefits of the Volt. After a $7500 tax credit, Lutz claimed at $32,500 the Volt wasn't too much more expensive than Toyota Prius. Still, he never explained how long it would take the Volt to recover its additional expense compared to a Prius or a similarly sized conventional vehicle.

Yet, what happens when tax credits run out? Moreover, recently it was reported that even at $40,000, GM is still losing money on every Volt sold, as the first Volts will be sold below cost. On top of that, GM eventually - someday - needs to start recovering the $1 billion plus spent on production costs.

Thus, tax payers - now owing 60 percent of GM - are selling the Volt at a loss, at a time that the Volt program is already $1 billion+ in debt, and taxpayers are also going to provide a $7500 tax credit to help sell a vehicle that can't help GM's bottom line for at least a decade?

And, not too much more expensive than the Prius?

I don't know. $10,000 + a $7500 tax credit sounds a little expensive to me, especially considering that the Toyota Prius is already a tough sell for the far majority of Americans. Most Americans want an even faster payback, an even cheaper clean and green option.

And, while I agree with Lutz's sentiments about petroleum-free driving, without enticing a majority of Americans, EVs will have no effect foreign oil dependency even if they achieve 1,000,000 mpg.

In 10 or 15 years, the Volt might have a chance of becoming a profitable, top-selling vehicle in America. In the interim, competitors will be developing a plethora of Volt competitors. Yet, none of them mean anything until millions of reliable and cost-effective battery packs can be produced per year.

Until then - even as early as next year - Toyota could be selling 1 million hybrid cars+ per year.

So which car, the Prius or the Volt, will offer the greatest reduction in petroleum over the next decade?

Is the Volt a Leaf over the Toyota Prius?

Leaf to get 367 mpg!?

So, which vehicle is better: the Chevy Volt, the Nissan Leaf or the Toyota Prius?

Not long after GM announced that the Volt might achieve 230 mpg in the city, Nissan announced that its Leaf electric vehicle would achieve 367 mpg in the city. So, obviously, the Leaf is the best, followed by the Volt, then the Prius, right?

If 80 percent of US drivers only drive 40 miles or less per day, then the Leaf, with its cheaper upfront costs, seems the clear winner. However, 100 miles of EV range might only mean 80 or 60 miles in the real world. Can you feel that range anxiety kicking in? What if you live in a condo or an apartment, or you have to park on the street?

Then the Volt can you take you further, for a cost, but it's a pretty big cost, or is it?

While Nissan is hoping to price the Leaf at $25,000 to $30,000, the Leaf is also reported to require a battery lease. How much will the lease cost? Even at $50 a month for 10 years, Leaf battery costs could more than pay for a lifetime's worth of fuel for the Prius, and you're still left with those nasty anxiety attacks.

Of course, the Leaf will reduce foreign oil dependency more than the Prius, thus the government will offer a big juicy tax credit. That alone could wipe out the cost of the battery lease, but again, where will you plug-in? What about that Thursday drive to the beach that is 120 miles there and back?

Well, it's back to the Volt, then, right? EV range for every day driving backed by a range-extending flex-fuel engine? Perfect, except for the fact that after a $7500 tax credit, you could still buy a Prius, pay for a lifetime's worth of fuel and still have several thousand dollars to spare.

Is the Volt a Leaf over the Prius? Not yet, but we'll review again once either Nissan or GM starts producing 100,000 of their plug-ins per year.

Volt to achieve 230 miles per gallon in the city

So now its all about city fuel economy?

230 miles per gallon. That's an impressive number for the Chevy Volt's city fuel economy. Still, I can't help but ask, Why is it when GM markets the fuel economy of all its other 30 mpg vehicles, it's always highway fuel economy that is the standard?

Nonetheless, there was never a doubt that the Volt would achieve stellar numbers on the EPA's city cycle. In the city, the Chevy Volt is essentially an electric vehicle. Makes me wonder, what's the fuel economy of the Tesla Roadster, since it NEVER uses gasoline?

Unlimited miles per gallon?

Inevitably, as electric vehicles become more common, it seems the EPA's methodology becomes more and more obsolete - if it already isn't obsolete.

Regardless, a consumer can still buy a 50 mpg Toyota Prius, pay for its lifetime fuel use, and still save thousands compared to the Volt - and that's after a $7500 tax credit. If the government doesn't extend tax credits for the Volt, it's cost-effectiveness becomes, well, nonexistent.

Hopefully, by the second or third generation Volt, GM will be able to bring down the costs of the Volt to make it more cost-effective for average Americans. In the interim 230 mpg will still provide a lot of bragging rights for Volt early adopters.

Chevy Volt's mileage numbers to be released tomorrow

Yet, you can't buy one for at least another year?

Tomorrow, GM will release the Volt's EPA mileage results, which I'm sure will be well over 100 mpg. Still, real world mileage of the Chevy Volt will be heavily dependent upon driving conditions, frequency of charging etc. Thus, the range of real world fuel economy of the Volt will be far greater than any other vehicle in history.

Regardless, the Volt's mileage results will be impressive, and they will provide oodles of hype and PR opportunities, despite the fact that the Volt is still more than a year from launch; despite the fact that the Volt will face several years of limited production that will limit Volt availability to just tens of thousands of consumers for the first few years, minimally.

Many, including this blogger, have claimed the Volt is far more about marketing than it is about reality, at least in the interim. Of course, however, it could be argued that the Toyota Prius followed the same developmental path. Then again, Toyota didn't spend years hyping the Prius before it launched.

Obviously, GM can use as much buzz as it can to change the negative perception of GM amongst many consumers. Is the extreme amount of marketing developed around the Volt the right path to a positive change in the perception of GM?