Is the US auto market irrational?
Time to become more worldly?
Gas guzzling. Americans love gas-guzzling, as our big gas-guzzlers make us feel both safe and strong. Unfortunately, our gas-guzzling also makes us dependent upon oil from foreign countries where the US is not well liked.
Perhaps even more worrisome, however, our big gas-guzzlers are an ever-dying trend that is beginning to resonate a little less in America, while making no sense at all in the ever-important emerging markets.
Emerging markets? Just a few decades ago, the US auto market was the only market that mattered.
Not today.
In fact, GM has sold more cars in China so far this year than in the US. And crowded, emerging markets, such as India, saw auto sales jump 31 percent in June. Yet, the potential of both China and India has barely been tapped.
As the auto markets in China and India emerge, however, they will evolve into something less and less similar to the current American market, as our automotive landscape devolves into a junkyard of irrelevant and inefficient autos. Inevitably, not only do Americans consume a significant amount of the world’s oil, we do so in a grossly inefficient manner that isn’t sustainable outside the US, or in the US for that matter.
Thus, the average US autoworker, for instance, is building vehicles that don’t make any sense in the markets of the future, but at least they are profitable, for now.
Certainly, smaller, worldly cars are less profitable, and less coveted by Americans. In terms of profits, however, scale increased by emerging markets might offer the ability to change those dynamics. In just a decade, for example, the Chinese market could become much larger than the US market, with other emerging markets not far behind. Consequently, might it not be wise to produce more Made in America cars and parts that translate outside of America?
Nevertheless, the real hard part is getting consumers to rethink the automobile. Taxes and regulations might help, but acting too aggressively or too quickly in such a manner would probably only incite the people against the government. Unfortunately, however, is there any other way?
Can the US consumer be sold a new vision for the automotive future and possibly even more important, do Big 3 automakers even want to sell that story today?


Wow very nice car,
thanx
SC Gas Tax Could Go Up to Maintain Roads
” to recommend this fall a state gas tax increase of 10 cents a gallon, phased in over three years.”
http://www2.wspa.com/news/2010/jul/08/sc-gas-tax-could-go-maintain-roads-ar-530136/
this is the most increase I’ve heard even talked about. Couple that with most polls that show 80% opposed to an increase in the gas tax and what happens in SC may have some effect on other states.
The Federal Gas tax – which is where public transit dollars come from (3 cents a gallon).. doesn’t have much chance of going up.
I think they are looking more at tolls for funding roads.
and if you think about it… tolls could cause people to drive less and/or look for more fuel efficient cars to offset the toll increase…
but I still don’t think most folks – in response to an increase in driving costs – gas or tolls – are going to go pay 5K extra for a hybrid car.
While the Prius has become a virtual cult car… think of the average guy who drives a pickup or SUV… because even single young guys in their 20’s … often get married, have kids etc.. and the Prius is just not enough car for a family ( at least that’s what I think.. I guess I could be wrong).
But if they can get an SUV where the Hybrid option doesn’t stand out like a sore financial thumb… i.e. more like leather seats or a premium sound system..then it has a much better chance of being more generally accepted…
It boils down to how much more people will pay for a hybrid – if it does not have a pay-back within the typical loan term.
If you’ve paid your car off – and you still did not come out ahead on the fuel cost – then I don’t think folks are going to go for that..
I kind of agree Tom. I’ve been more of a fan in the past, but the last few consumer studies have thrown a real wrench into the tax idea, suggesting that a gas tax ultimately pushes consumers into cheaper and cheaper – in terms of up-front costs – vehicles. Based on battery technologies, that’s really made me think more emphasis should be put on the cheapest, most fuel efficient vehicles we can build. For instance, maybe we should hybridize everything first, or even mild-hybridize everything. Minimally, it seems something like start/stop should be mandatory.
Nonetheless, let’s put a more honest, reliable price on gas. When it costs less, stockpile it so that there aren’t as many spikes. If pushed to just a base of $3.50, over the next 3 years, and then $4.00 after that, you could sustain more interest in alternative technologies, without going so high that the economy crashes.
Yeah. Either innovation will make it much more cost-effective to change, or we won’t change until we simply have no choice. Somehow, it seems to me, we need to incentivize more innovation. Create real competition and real incentives for substantial, but incremental changes, while we wait for the big breakthrough.
Here is a report from MIT that basically agrees with you Smurf. The report is an interesting read, especially the part about the $.10 cent per year per gallon gas tax increase for 10 years.
I have often written about my proposed gas tax plan on this blog. Mine however was a $.25/year/gallon for 4 years. Might as well get the pain over with more quickly, LOL.
Tom G.
http://web.mit.edu/mitei/docs/research/actionplan.pdf
It doesn’t matter if the US oil consumption levels are “unsustainable”, America will keep doing it until it is impossible.
As Dick Cheney said…. “The American way of life is not negotiable”