Is cheap electricity the key to plug-in hybrids and EVs?
Still all about the battery?
All about power
How much will the electricity cost when you plug your car into the grid? That depends on a number of factors. Thus, utilities such as Southern California Edison are offering tools like the “Plug-in Car Rate Assistant” to help consumers understand the costs of plugging in, and how plugging in at different times can save cash.
But, does plug-in success have anything to do with the cost of electricity through the next decade?
to be honest, haven’t paid much attention since that post, but I’m positive that i was quite compelled. if i had some long term hedge fund money, i’d put a bit of a stake in it, or at least something related to it. for sure something related to it.
i would, however, add that i see reports on interesting technologies or breakthroughs that – maybe i’m just a bit of a geek here – but that literally blow my mind away almost every day.
we are sooooooo very close to soooooo many breakthroughs across so many different technologies that i think we’d have to be idiots not to realize how much potential is before us, but we have, as a species, a very nasty habit of letting idiocy rule. seriously, paris hilton – no offense to her – is probably more interesting to more people than obama. if not obama, for sure compared to pelosi, reid, mccain or boenner.
we the people have power as voters, but we probably have far more power as consumers and as consumers we are at our most idiotic self.
anyway, sorry for the tangent. if you find out anything interesting about bloom, please link back here. i’d be interested to follow up on it again.
hmmm… don’t know how I missed it. It sounds a little like cold fusion but apparently several large companies have them.
what I’ve not seen is the cost per KW hour for them.
did we ever find that out?
The inventor said that he expects the electric companies themselves to be buying these things because it will be able to produce power competitively with the existing methods of power generation.
I largely agree Tom, and I really like making Leadership #1.
I remember President Obama, as an Illinois Senator running for President, telling constituents it was time to kill the SUV. A reporter afterward followed the then Senator outside to his SUV. Later, Obama’s people claimed it was flex fuel, as Obama is an ethanol man. Unfortunately, at the time, in Chicago where Obama spent most of his Illinois time, there was something like 1 gas station serving up higher blends of ethanol – although I’m sure he only went to that gas station, right?!
Likewise, I remember a Congressional PR event at a gas station a few blocks from Congressional offices. Most whom spoke were driven, and while they talked their guzzlers, reporters noted, guzzled gas as they idled with the ACs of full.
Anyway, I’m more of a fan of the plug-in Prius than the Chevy Volt, at least through this decade. According to every bit of research I’ve seen, the Prius is just a more cost-effective implementation of the battery technologies now available. Down the road, GM could be onto something, but I always hate when things are too far down the road and not more about today. I’d really like to see GM diversify their hybrid – including plug-in portfolio better. They have another plug-in hybrid drive that has been in development longer than the Volts.
Nonetheless, I’m becoming very intrigued by by the concept of range extended fuel cell hybrids. I think it’s EnerDel that developed a concept similar to the Volt that uses a small fuel cell and onboard gasoline reformer to replace a good chunk of the battery at a cost cheaper than just using batteries.
Interestingly, GM’s Volt architecture was been planned to merge with their fuel cell architecture. Eventually, both will utilize the same line, at least that was the plan several years ago.
Of course a Prius plug-in hybrid might be an even better platform for a small fuel cell. Along those lines, I also find it very interesting that battery developers are starting to look at fuel cell chemistry as a possible breakthrough to cheaper batteries.
Crazy, but such conversions of technologies often do prove that the sum is greater than the parts.
You didn’t see my post, Larry? I’m hurt. Just kidding, anyway I took a different, speculative take on the bloom box, but if you want to check it out Could a Bloom box hybrid be in your near future?
anyone heard of this:
Bloom box
http://www.bloomenergy.com/products/what-is-an-energy-server/
I almost forgot to mention; even thou it wouldn’t make much difference; both articles are from a European perspective which is somewhat different than living in the good old USA.
We lack much of the infrastructure they have.
Dahcredyns: After reading the two articles you posted I am more convinced than ever that series, parallel, multi mode or plug-in hybrids will become the short term winners. Pure electrics will probably not be available in large numbers until after that time period. My personal favorite for the next 10 years would be the Volt [or something like that] since my driving distance is limited and when in electric mode it operates as a parallel hybrid which I believe will have a performance advantages. It would also allow me to have just one vehicle since it is range extending.
But there are so many other things that must happen concurrently.
1. Social value change
2. Infrastructure improvements
3. Reasonable and systematic increase in cost of carbon.
4. Educate everyone how to read and understand vehicle efficiency data in Btu’s/mile instead of MPG.
5. Changes to our tax structure, and;
6. All of the 6 others mentioned above.
Come to think of it, maybe No. 1 should be LEADERSHIP. We could sure use some improvement in that area as well.
Here’s a couple of articles out today that also cover some of the issues under discussion on this post. Special Report: Power struggles: charging tomorrow’s cars. Also, Battery car hype about to stumble over reality.
Larry, and your point number 5 is kind of the converse of where we are heading. Already we can’t pay for maintenance and less and less revenue for maintenance is coming in. On top of that we’re subsidizing a whole new infrastructure and expensive vehicles to use that infrastructure – an infrastructure that will also need maintenance – by making use of that infrastructure as cheap as possible, while also subsidizing plug-ins that are an inefficient use of resources based upon today’s technological capabilities.
I really wonder, as anybody really stepping back and looking at the big, whole picture?
I absolutely want plug-ins to be a reality. It seems like such a perfect cure to so many problems. In fact, I advocated for plug-in hybrids as THE solution for many years, but as more and more data has come out, very big questions have emerged. Without any doubt, plug-ins will become a nice niche over the years, but if most plug-in adopters are the same as hybrid adopters – which Nissan Leaf sales are thus far showing – than we’re talking about less than 3 percent of the population buying new cars that are even less cost-effective than today’s hybrids that 97.5 percent of consumers still think cost too much.
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I think that’s a possibility. Even worse, rates might be suppressed for EV charging, and those costs will be deferred to everyone else. Ultimately, a lot of the electricity issues are more theory than reality and there is contradiction in the different studies. Inevitably, it seems some sort of new grid, power generation, massive smart meter rollout – something – will be required. Upfront, such costs can be pretty expensive, depending on the solution. A new super grid, for instance, has been priced between several hundred billion to over a trillion. If you can’t charge much for electricity, how are those huge investment costs recovered?
Still, the interesting thing is that I don’t think the price of electricity really means anything yet. Vehicle costs have to come way down in order to move beyond early adopters. In my opinion, a couple percent marketshare is easily within reach, but only thanks to massive tax credits. Anything beyond that takes a some sort of technological breakthrough or massive psychological shift in consumer expectations.
that’s a good list.
I for one would not trade “foreign oil dependence” for more dirty coal air pollution, including mercury which is a big problem in our rivers.
I think plug-ins should have a special plug and that the electricity cost for plug-in cars should be substantially more than regular electricity – because if you don’t do something about the gas tax – you’re got to have really crappy roads that will be so poorly maintained that you’ll beat the crap out of your new plug-ins.
so add to the list 5) – charge plug-ins for road use
Cheap electricity is low on the list. In front of it are:
1) REAL Pressure for foreign oil independence
2) Vehicle range and price (availability to the masses, not just urban yuppies and empty-nesters)
Clean electricity
3) CLEAN electricity
4) Domestic manufacture
what if electric powered vehicle take over the market place, of course electric power will be in demand, is there any possibility that electricity will not be in price hike?
Consumer Reports has an interesting article on plug-ins…. and it’s pretty upbeat.
But therein lies the rub. Cheap electricity is being used as a primary selling point for plug-ins, in defense of plug-ins.
Unfortunately, the issue holding back plug-ins has nothing to do with the cost of electricity, but the cost of the battery. According to the experts, even if battery costs scale 65 percent cheaper through manufacturing improvements, they still hit a commodity-price threshold that will still leave them cost-ineffective without a major increase in gasoline prices. Likewise, even if a major battery breakthrough is achieved that can overcome this commodity problem, it could take decades to refine into a cost-effective automotive solution.
Yet, no one wants to talk about these issues, or more important, practical plans towards overcoming these issues as much as possible. Instead, the cost of electricity is being marketed as the reason for plug-ins. It’s almost as if as long as an automaker builds 50,000 plug-ins per year, everything else will quickly fall into place. It won’t.
Certainly, the problems facing plug-ins are not easy to overcome, especially if the goal is more than 10 percent penetration by 2030, but the studies have made some suggestions. For instance, rewrite plug-in tax credits to favor small battery plug-ins which offer the most cost-effectiveness and efficient use of supplies. Or, put serious R&D effort into dynamic charging. Or, is there some way to re-imagine how plug-ins can be redesigned so we’re not just trying to plug-in today’s inefficient boxes. Rethink the box. Could a plug-in become some kind of advanced social network, gaming portal? Sounds crazy, but that’s just how crazy we might have to become.
Or, if plug-ins simply cannot become a cost-effective solution for the masses until 2030 and beyond, then let’s make sure we’re doing as much as possible in other ways. For instance, it’s beginning to sound as if achieving a CAFE of 60 mpg by 2025 would actually pay for itself using technologies already in mass use today without giving up too many creature comforts expected today. Likewise, such a plan would strongly utilize hybrid technology, which still helps advance R&D into battery research, while also resulting in plug-in conversion ready vehicles should a battery breaktrhough or sky-rocketing gas prices becomes a reality. Thus, one might ask for instance, would a tax credit for hybrid pickup trucks offer more bang for the buck than a tax credit for a Leaf or a Volt, particularly in the short term?
I don’t know, but I fully believe we – our government and automakers more specifically – should be crunching those kinds of numbers.
Just building plug-ins is not enough. It’s getting either them, or some other efficient solution, into the driveways of as many consumers as possible as quickly as possible. Today, unfortunately, it’s all just PR and marketing games, such as focusing on the cost of electricity when electricity isn’t yet a worthwhile issue to discuss..
I don’t see this as an issue. Electricity is already very cheap, and people know it. Exactly like everybody knows that gas is expensive, and that things will remain this way.
Mathematically it shouldn’t make very much difference. Let’s take the Chevy Volt as an example [in electric mode]. It’s battery can store 16kW/hours of electricity of which 8.8 kW/h are usable.
If for example the off-peak electric rate is $.12/kW/hour X 8.8kw that equals $1.06 to recharge. If we double the cost of electricity during normal/early peak hours to $.24/kW/h it becomes $2.12. While this doubling of cost is certainly a good reason to charge an electric vehicle in off peak hours it certainly has little effect on the overall cost of ownership. Which is more meaningful to a buyer of an electric vehicle. A $35,000 purchase price for the vehicle OR $1.06-2.12 per day for electric fuel?
In the end charging the electric vehicle at night can be a big advantage and certainly will help the electric grid. For some individuals; charging at night; especially in CA; will help them feel better about their vehicle purchase and what they believe they are doing to help the environment.
But in the end; it is my belief that the cost of the electricity will NOT BE a significant factor when it comes to the point of deciding either for or against an electric vehicle.
Of course this could change if Cap and Trade or a Carbon Tax is implemented in the next decade which could significantly affect electric rates. That action of course would also raise the cost of other fuels as well so this concern is probably just a wash but is unknown of course. My crystal ball become a little foggy due to political uncertainties when we start about talking about the ‘next decade’.