I totally agree with the warranty angle.

Still, I’m not sure that comparing the RAV and the Volt is a fair comparison as the battery requirements are very different. I don’t think NiMH makes sense in a range extended application.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that NiMH technology has been, and probably will be, more reliable than lithium-ion for some time. Nevertheless, automakers are betting the lithium technology will provide better scaling than NiMH ever could have, in addition to the weight and power potential. But, if ltihium cannot survive the life of the vehicle, how successful can plug-ins be?

There are many NiMH powered EVs and hybrids with hundreds of thousands of miles on them. Today’s lithium technologies will probably not last as long, and that is very bad.

Of course, despite NiMH’s reliability could it have ever scaled cost-effectively enough to achieve anything but niche penetration? Based on the commodities charts during the 2008 gas spike, I don’t think so.

The Volt is an important chip in the game and a great marketing tool for GM, but it won’t be a great success for some time, if ever. However, even if the Volt isn’t a great success, that doesn’t mean crash and burn.

It’s going to take years, maybe even decades for the plug-in game to achieve any sort of fruition. Until then, a chip is all that is required, and as long as the Volt doesn’t experience any serious unintended thermodynamic events, they’re still a player

Of course the bad news might be that if the Volt is not everything they promised and more – it’s going to effectively destroy GM’s reputation as a legitimate player in real, live “green” cars.

GM is teed up for either great success or crash&burn…. we’ll see.

Mighty funny that the “legacy” NiMH battery technology can last for 10 years and 100K miles in the RAV4 EV but a baby’ed and pampered Li ion pack in a Volt is only good enough for 8.

This is not good news folks.

So is 8 years enough? Seems to me dahcredyns has it about right unless of course you don’t care about re-sale value.

Tom G.

If it becomes common for these batteries to last 10 years or less, Volts could lose significant value after 5 years of ownership. If consumers know that if they buy a five year old used Volt, a three year warranty isn’t going to be enough if they think that in 4 years it could cost well over $10,000 to replace their battery pack.

Thus, something more will be needed to make these vehicles a real commercial success.

Perhaps it doesn’t have to be a warranty. A better battery pack design might enable module replacement, for instance. But an 8 year battery warranty won’t be enough.

For instance, ask anyone interested in a hybrid, but not yet buying a hybrid and usually their top two concerns are the 1.) Upfront costs, and 2.) Battery longevity. Those issues will be even greater obstacles for vehicles like the Volt.

If all we’re concerned about is a few percent market penetration for a vehicles like the Volt, then there is no worry. However, if these vehicles are critical to ending a good chunk of US oil dependence, an 8 year warranty won’t be enough until costs of replacement are reduced significantly.