Geneva says: A future powered by a plethora of powertrains
Multiple fuel, hybrid and plug-in configurations will rule the future
Geneva Motor Show further demonstrates single powertrain domination will take decades, minimally
The world of powertrains is a changing. Gasoline engines and diesel engines are now being joined by natural gas engines these days. For example, yesterday, GM announced its dual fuel — gasoline and natural gas – pickup trucks. Today, Chrysler also debuted its natural gas pickup truck, and Ford is set to follow the trend.
Then there are hybrids, now also coming in gasoline, diesel and natural gas variants. Then plug-in hybrids, range extended electric cars, full battery electrics and still fuel cell electrics.
These days powertrains can best be described by diversity.
Today, Honda offers a mild hybrid powertrain. Soon they’ll add a full hybrid and a plug-in hybrid. Then there are Honda’s plug-in and fuel cell electric cars. Plus, Honda has hinted at the possibility of a range extended plug-in. Talk about battery-powered confusion.
Nissan, the big plug-in electric bull amongst the major automakers, started selling its own proprietary hybrid cars last year, and with the Infiniti Emerg-E debut appearing ever more to be just the first step towards production, Nissan looks primed to roll out a range extended plug-in powertrain as well.
Hyundai, another hybrid laggard, also started selling hybrids last year and has in the past debuted plug-in hybrid, electric and fuel cell concepts. And at the Geneva Motor Show, Hyundai, like Nissan, also added a range extended EV powertrain via the I-oniq Concept.
So, what’s the dominant powertrain of the future?
I think it has become pretty clear that the internal combustion engine will stick around for quite some time, but in a lot of different flavors, while being ever more paired with batteries in numerous hybrid configurations. Eventually batteries, and possibly fuel cells, will replace ICE, but based on the multiple powertrain options still being conceptualized and developed by numerous automakers, it’s clear the interim powertrain future just isn’t very clear and destined for diversity.
Scott – thanks! all I know is what I hear and I realize it depends on who is talking!
some folks seem convinced that shale gas is not a strong, sustainable source….
and shale oil is much more costly to extract than conventional oil.
it might take a while for the truth to leech out, eh?
LarryG -
All gas and oil wells decline. Shale oil and gas wells decline faster at the beginning and then more slowly as time goes on until the decline rates are very low. That’s not bad. It’s good because you get the oil/gas faster. It is cheaper than what it used to cost to drill for gas because the wells are much better than the remaining conventional wells. Overall less drilling needs to be done because the wells are better.
It’s the same game though. People may not understand technology or technology trends but they understand how much a car/truck costs and it’s operating costs and if two vehicles are identical except for a hybrid engine or a natural gas option – and those things cost more than the 4 -5 year savings in fuel… people won’t buy them.
That’s exactly the Volt problem.
If the Volt cost 25K – it would triple it’s sales overnight.
I’d be careful about natgas also. There are those that are saying that fracking does get to more gas but it’s not a deep, decades-long supply but rather a few months and then that location is tapped out and they have to move the drill rig.
drilling in that manner is much more expensive than drilling and years of extraction before it taps out.
It’s true, the worlds of powertrains is a changing. this is all because of gasoline and diesel engine are now joinend by natural gas engines these days.Definitely,it’s clear the interim powertrain future just isn’t very clear and destined for diversity.
Medium duty trucks