Fuel efficiency interest dropping
It just doesn't matter
Only if forced
Through 2010 sales of fuel efficient vehicles – those achieving at least 30 mpg – are down 10 percent compared to 2009.
Time to pray for a hydrogen miracle?
After more than a decade in the market, hybrid cars still account for less than 3 percent of new vehicle sales.
Soon, automakers will begin rolling out a few plug-in cars that will require incentives worth as much as $11,500 to entice rich people to buy. Poor people, on the other hand, can buy a similarly sized car with similar amenities, yet with far more range and capabilities, for just a few thousand more than the tax credits offered.
And today, people could care less about a vehicle that achieves 30 mpg or more. It simply doesn’t matter to most new car consumers, unless gas prices top at least $4.00.
Sadly, while one might believe that if we get lucky – man that’s funny – gas prices might top $5.00 or $6.00 and push consumers into hybrid and plug-in vehicles. Unfortunately, the data from Europe, where gas prices already exceed $5.00 or $6.00, doesn’t support that contention. Nor does the data from numerous car-buyer surveys.
Instead of buying an expensive EV to save money on fueling over the long term, most consumers indicate that they would rather just downsize significantly.
While I tongue-and-cheeked the idea of hydrogen, is there any other way forward? Isn’t it becoming sadly obvious that American consumers are simply cake-eaters? Most refuse to give up anything unless forced, and when financially forced, most consumers will go cheap rather than making the long term investment.
Is it a miracle or bust?
A sustained $4.00+ gallon. That’s going to be a very interesting scenario to watch.
Dach – It still is for those yahoos, unfortunately.
Just wait until gas hits $4 by the end of this year and starts slowly creeping up throughout next year. The high costs of those Canadian tar sands are about to meet the elimination of a lot of European petro industry subsidies (Hello, US?)by the middle of next year. THEN you’re going to see the shit hit the fan.
reminds me of when bob lutz claimed that GM could have beat Toyota to the Prius, saying that GM could have easily spent a fraction of one year’s marketing budget developing and producing a production line for something like the prius.
marketing suvs, however, was simply more profitable at the time.
Personally, I like think this quote covers alot: “Advertising works!”
Take a look at what we are told we want. Big trucks and SUV’s, sexy sporty cars.
The marketing trend is that only nerds like hybrids or high efficiency vehicles.
When car makers start promoting high efficiency vehicles with as much zeal and with as many almighty dollars as the gas guzzlers, the herds of US consumers will follow.
Well put, Smurf.
Although I do have this wild hair up my ass that tells me the kids could be a game changer. Already today’s youth have significantly less interest in cars than any other recent generation. They’d rather drive video games. Likewise, social networks have reduced their need for transportation.
Someone is going to come up with a new automotive business model that takes advantage of those new interests.
Then again, however, such a new business model probably wouldn’t resonate outside of this group – assuming, as I am, that such a new model would be intricately based on efficiency – until the 11th hour.
Our species just loves to do things the hard way.
I think most Americans are still hoping for that third option:
A new fuel/technology will be invented that:
1. replaces oil
2. works in large vehicles
3. has a lower price.
This would allow Amercians to continue to drive their large vehicles at the same cost as driving gasoline vehicles today.
Well….
Historically, these types of leaps in technology happen in the 11th hour, under dire circumstances.
Example: Synthetic rubber. It was developed during World War II, after the fall of Burma created a shortage of rubber plants.
The alternative to oil will come, but I believe it will come in the 11th hour just like many other advances.
I also believe that we have not yet reached that 11th hour, so oil will be around for a long time….
Noz,
There is no doubt that the idea of keeping our vehicles the same size – in terms of weight at least – and adding lithium batteries to solve all our problems is almost certainly not feasible at any level. And there are no doubt some very serious human rights issues that could arise as a result of lithium.
Already, Evo Morales has provided plenty of warning signs, and the idea that Afghanistan might be the solution seems incredibly premature to me. I don’t think the Taliban are going anywhere soon.
While hybrids will decrease the use of fossil fuels, we’re only going to get into more wars now due to lithium….
Now that Afghanistan has been identified as a huge resource for lithium, another round of f’ing up that country and its people is going to start so we can enjoy our hybrids and electric cars.
What’s needed is a change in lifestyle…not cars.
You know I mostly agree, Smurf.
However, for fun, let’s speculate that we survive foreign oil dependency a few more decades, saw two very interesting stories today that gave me some out-of-box hope.
1.) Very compelling piece on both hydrogen generation and “a sustainable and reversible energy storage cycle”.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/06/boddien-20100616.html#more
2.) Could new safety systems redefine the car? What if the smallest microcar could be as safe as any other vehicle on the road?
http://blogs.insideline.com/straightline/2010/06/continental-automotive-group-safety-for-everyone.html
I am convinced that Americans will not give up their larger vehicles voluntarily. They will do so kicking and screaming.
Only 2 things will convince American to buy more efficient vehicles:
1. The oil begins to run out. This will drive gas prices up permanently, and finally convince Americans to buy more efficient vehicles.
2. Gov’t intervention drives gas prices up to the point where Americans want to drive more efficent vehicles.
I personnally do not see our government driving gas prices up. So there is really only one answer to the question.
“When will America make the transition to fuel efficient vehicles?????……
WHEN THE OIL RUNS OUT, AND NOT BEFORE.
rc57-
i don’t disagree with much of what you are saying, although the idea that consumers buy autos based on economic sense is a well-established fallacy. people don’t simply buy the most cost-effective transportation solution that fits their needs. a car has become an extension of personality and ego in many cases. in fact, many car buyers cannot cost-effectively afford the vehicle they own/lease/make payments on, and owning too much car is probably the greatest financial problem facing most Americans.
warren buffett has made that case many times.
nonetheless, the problem is the “whole picture”.
these days, my perspective is based upon significantly reducing oil dependence. based on all the evidence available, hybrids and EVs will not significantly reduce oil dependence for decades. thus, my running question has been, based on the last few decades of oil dependence, isn’t it illogical to assume that the next few decades of foreign oil dependence won’t be significantly more dangerous?
if you believe that, then isn’t it time to start demanding real change and more choices. likewise, if you believe that foreign oil dependency is a serious threat to america, then why would you care less about fuel economy when gas prices drop and more about fuel efficiency when gas prices increase. if the trend is higher, doesn’t it make sense – cost-effectively – to assume gas prices are going higher, possibly significantly higher?
it seems to me that you think quite logically, but i don’t believe most consumers do the same. i think they think purely about today, even if it means that it costs them more tomorrow.
unfortunately, such short term thinking, in my opinion, is unsustainable and will come back to hurt many auto consumers.
I would love to see a Hydrogen miracle for transportation, but it’s just not gonna happen soon. As for the lost interest in autos achieving 30+ MPG, I think this article is somewhat biased and doesn’t look at the whole picture. First of all, and more than fuel costs, are the upfront cost factors involved with the vehicle itself. You have stated in this article that only rich people will be able to afford an EV, which in itself should tell you that poorer people will buy what they can afford, and especially in this economy. So is it the average Joe’s fault that what he can afford and has need for doesn’t exist? Second, the amount of hybrid choices available to the average consumer is very limited in the different size vehicles required. Example, I need a midsized auto, such as a Camry, Fusion, etc. I cannot do with a Honda fit or anything similar (i.e. Prius). There is the new Hyundia Sonata which gets 35mpg on the road, which is very closely matched to the Fusion and Camry in size and performance, etc. Since a majority of travel I do is at 45mph or better, is it worth my while to spend $5,000+ more just to know I’ve got a hybrid which may only get overall maybe 4-5mpg better?? I certainly don’t think so, so what do I buy? Starting to get the picture? The average consumer will buy a new vehicle every 6-7 years or put no more than 100000 miles on it. Even at $5.00/ gal., this doesn’t make economic sense. Now if all you do is drive around the city, an EV or a hybrid vehicle would probably break even over the life of ownership, and could be justified. My point is there are many factors involved with the “interest of fuel mileage” for consumers, don’t be one of those “one size fits all” types! There needs to be more and cheaper choices…or a hydrogen miracle!
I agree that higher gas prices will increase the sales of such cars, but only relatively, I’d bet.
Instead of 3 percent hybrid penetration, perhaps 10 percent is achieved, for instance.
And, while that’s a great improvement, it’s still essentially insignificant in terms of affecting overall oil dependence or emissions.
I hate being negative, but after following this space for almost 10 years now, I just don’t have any faith in the possibility of intelligent consumerism.
As John points out, this conundrum isn’t just related to car buying, it’s the basis for the entire American way of life.
We eat a Big Mac today because its cheap and easy, but tomorrow we’ll start exercising and cooking healthy. Yet we always push off tomorrow until the next.
We spend now, save and invest later.
Generally, Americans are never committed to make a tough decision today that offers a great return on investment tomorrow.
Instant gratification is our only mantra.
One has to remember that when looking at Europe, their cities are setup so they drive less miles than we do and therefore they spend a similar amount of money on driving as the U.S. If gas hits $5.00 here, cars sold will change quickly like in the mid 2000’s.
I’m always surprised how long term decisions are based on short term environment. Buy stocks when they are at historic highs, sell them when they drop to lows. Buy a large vehicle that will be on the road for 20 years when fuel is cheap, buy a fuel efficient one when it’s up.