Does a cheaper Toyota Camry hybrid demand a cheaper Prius?

Not only with other members of the Prius family challenge the base Prius, but also the Toyota Camry hybrid.

Prius family set for a big expansion in 2012

Could the Camry hybrid conquest Prius buyers?

We all know that when it comes to hybrid cars, Toyota is the king of sales thanks to the Prius, which accounts for more than 50 percent of all hybrid sales. Yet, Toyota is anticipating a huge increase in hybrid sales with the launch of the 2012 Toyota Camry hybrid.

But are all these Camry hybrid purchases going to come from Camry buyers, or could the Camry hybrid entice Prius buyers?

According to Toyota the new Camry hybrid should account for about 11 percent of all Camry sales, or about 50,000 sales per year. Based on the significant increase in fuel economy coupled with a compelling drop in price, I think Toyota’s forecasts are believable. However, the same changes that make the Camry hybrid more competitive versus the Camry, also make the Camry more interesting versus the Prius.

Yes, the Toyota Prius still offers significantly better fuel economy – about 10 mpgs more, and it’s cheaper, but the Camry hybrid offers a much more refined and comfortable drive and greater overall performance. And, now that the Camry hybrid is more fuel efficient and about $1200 cheaper than it was in 2011, it could be more enticing to Toyota hybrid buyers.

Unless Toyota decreases the price of the Prius.

Later this decade Toyota believes the Prius family could be its top seller, overtaking the Camry. For that to happen, it seem Prius pricing is going to have to have to decline, fairly significantly.

Sure the plug-in Prius, as well as the Prius V and the Prius C will push Prius sales higher, but all three of those options are going to capture many potential conventional Prius buyers, so it doesn’t seem adding to the Prius family is going to be enough to push Prius sales towards Toyota’s expectations, at least not without a price decline.

Of course, maybe Toyota isn’t yet ready for a huge increase in Prius sales, and if Camry hybrid sales push Prius sales lower, but overall hybrid sales increase, all will still be well in the house of Toyota.

I’d bet that’s probably the boring, methodical approach Toyota has in mind, but I’d sure love to see a Camry hybrid-like price decrease for the Prius as well in 2012. Then the US might finally move past 3 percent or less hybrid cars marketshare forever, forever.

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