DOE – GM to produce 120,000 Volts next year?
500 a month today, 10,000 a month next year?
1 million plug-ins by 2015 ambitious but achievable according to DOE
Today, GM is producing several hundred Chevy Volts per month, but by next year GM could produce up to 10,000 Volts per month according to the Department of Energy. Likewise, Fisker could be selling 5 times as many electric cars as Tesla by 2013, despite not having yet sold 1 plug-in vehicle and already running into production problems.
Consequently, based on reported potential capacity for plug-in production by automakers, 1 million plug-in vehicles by 2015 is ambitious, but achievable according to the DOE.
I don’t know, maybe the DOE’s projected production capacity is theoretically possible, but is it at all probable? Or are these just numbers that automakers know they’ll never have to live up to, but are good to woo greenhorn investors – including the government?
Just today the DetroitNews, for instance, reported that GM was planning to produce 11,000 Volts this year and 45,000 Volts next year, but they’ll have the production capacity to produce 15,000 Volts this year and 120,000 Volts next year?
What’s the difference maker?
There’s plenty of tax credits for now. So is the difference between 45,000 Chevy Volt sales and 120,000 Volt sales next year based on the possibility of point of sale tax credits and other new forms of legislation?
And Fisker? Tesla has been in the plug-in game for a long time now, yet Fisker is going to quickly leapfrog Tesla? Today, I’m betting on Tesla, not Fisker.
Consequently, today, I can’t help but find the DOE’s numbers a little laughable, but if GM sells 120,000 Volts next year, they might become my new favorite automaker.
Our host said: I’d like to see a 60 mpg city tax credit. Use batteries, new designs, biofuels, etc. – like many of the concepts shown at the auto x-prize, for instance – to get to 60 mpg. Let automakers decide which technologies are most cost-effective through competition.
Now here is a plan I could vote for!!!!
Ron, I’ve seen some conflicting studies on this angle, but I don’t think the plug-in vehicles offer much of a green improvement yet, even in the best circumstances. Honestly, I think basic hybrid cars offer more, especially for the buck.
Nevertheless, the DetroitNews called the government into question on this. The DOE’s projections are pretty much nonsense according to the DetroitNews based on automaker interviews. I think the DOE is just playing politics here as they need to help support the Admin’s plans for 1 million plug-ins by 2015.
Personally, I find the goal to be silly. The battery technologies, nor the infrastructure, are mature enough yet. We’re far better off focusing our battery efforts on conventional hybrids in my opinion. Such vehicles are an easier sell, offer more CO2 and foreign oil reducing capabilities today, while offering plug-in conversion options tomorrow if battery breakthroughs/infrastructure issues are resolved.
Actually, I’d like to do with with the plug-in tax credit entirely, although i’m a big fan of plug-ins, at least theoretically. One day they will make great sense, just not yet. Instead, I’d like to see a 60 mpg city tax credit. Use batteries, new designs, biofuels, etc. – like many of the concepts shown at the auto x-prize, for instance – to get to 60 mpg. Let automakers decide which technologies are most cost-effective through competition.
Even if carmakers can make the million-unit target, it’d be a disaster. Because coal accounts for about half of electricity needs in this country. Unless all of the cars are somehow operated near the Hoover Dam or some other non-fossil fuel area, the electricity demand from EVs will actually increase emissions over the amount that would be produced by a similar number of hybrids. An MIT study describes this:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode.cfm?id=will-your-plug-in-car-actually-be-c-10-07-08
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20028465-54.html
http://taintedgreen.com/green-cars/toyota-prius-is-still-the-better-choice-than-chevy-volt/000899/mm-17