Consumer Reports slams the Chevy Volt
Just not based on mainstream technology?
A good niche solution, but just not for average car buyers?
“When you are looking at purely dollars and cents, it doesn’t really make a lot of sense. The Volt isn’t particularly efficient as an electric vehicle and it’s not particularly good as a gas vehicle either in terms of fuel economy,” said David Champion, the senior director of Consumer Reports auto testing center at a meeting with reporters here. “This is going to be a tough sell to the average consumer.”
However, GM countered that for consumers seeking to significantly reduce their foreign oil dependence, the Chevy Volt resonates.
While I agree with GM that the Volt is a great vehicle to reduce personal foreign oil dependence, almost every battery study over the last year or two has hinted at the same conclusion as Consumer Reports. And as Bob Lutz, essentially the father of the Volt, publicly stated numerous times, the Volt wasn’t designed to become GM’s main powertrain; instead, it was designed for the 5 – 10 percent of consumers willing to pay extra for such a vehicle.
Consequently, there is a market for the Volt. Moreover, Volt R&D could lead to the type of breakthrough that results in making plug-in vehicles a solution for more than just a few percent of car consumers.
Nevertheless, when it comes to addressing US foreign oil dependence, for instance, Volt technology is not the solution today, nor almost certainly, any time soon. While it’s great that GM developed the Volt, more effort should have also been put into conventional hybrid technology, for example, or even something like Ford’s EcoBoost. Ultimately, hyping the Volt for several years as a response to the success of the Toyota Prius was not the smartest move.
Fortunately, GM’s new E-Assist mild hybrid powertrain might help fill in this void, but will this be enough to push GM’s CAFE rating past Toyota?
Inevitably, addressing foreign oil dependence will require far more than over-hyped niche solutions, and while GM and Nissan market their plug-in leadership, both are still laggards when it comes to their overall CAFE rankings. And, today, that counts a lot more than green marketing.
For the record Smurf, I’d still buy a Volt, despite my concerns regarding its long term cost-effectiveness compared to other products. Just want you to know that I totally respect you for putting your money where your mouth is – as I believe you did with your hybrid purchase and solar array. Keep up the good fight!
Undoubtedly battery prices will come down, but the studies on the potential cost reductions in battery technologies seem to claim that lithium almost certainly will never be cost-effective compared to ICE-based technologies. In most cases, the research claims that basic commodity costs provide a base price that will limit potential. That research has come for a wide arrange of sources both in the US and Europe, including from researchers that have been working on lithium for the last 30 years.
Likewise, we’re comparing battery prices to today’s ICE technologies. The potential of conventional technologies to become much more fuel efficient is possible if consumers demonstrated that they actually cared. Plus, you can add mild hybrid or full hybrid technologies.
Today, the Volt costs about $41,000 according to GM, but that doesn’t include any profit margins for either GM or dealerships, or does it include R&D costs. So, the actual costs is several thousand higher if any profit margin is considered. That’s a lot of ground to make up.
Nevertheless, some out-of-the-box breakthrough could still occur, but the bulk of the data produced in the last year or two suggests we’ll probably need decades to achieve and scale these breakthroughs.
I think a more realistic scenario in the coming years is that battery “prices” come down significantly even though we haven’t found that breakthrough yet.
Tesla is continuing to develop ways to manufacture batteries more cheaply.
The major auto makers are positioning themselves to mass produce batteries. I believe they will find ways to make them affordable.
Congrats Smurf!
I liked what I saw and put my 500 bucks down…. I’ll probably have to wait until next Feb though. AZ Doesn’t get them until Dec, and I’m 20 th on my dealer’s list.
I figured it was time to put my money where my mouth was.
The 100% electric drive was everything I hoped it would be.
The lease price of $350 was also very appealing.
I still hesitate to think of the Volt as a niche even if battery advances miraculously happen. I still think that charging time will remain an issue that makes the Volt a viable option.
I talked to many friends, greenlings and otherwise. All are excited about the Volt and most said they would get one if it were $25,000. So if an advancement in batteries lowers the Volt price by $10,000, they would sell like hotcakes in my opinion.
Larry, just saw your updated question.
In that scenario, I’d say the Volt would be more successful, but would it be more successful than other offerings? If new battery technologies could offer the same for the Leaf, then you might have 300 mile EVs. At such ranges do you need range extended technologies?
I think there is an argument to be made that plug-in hybrids and range extended EVs are more of an interim technology than conventional hybrids. If we’re just talking plain old dollars and cents, I think basic hybrids and BEVs win. But it could be decades until the breakthroughs you suggest are achieved.
Larry, a number of automakers are working on Volt-like powertrains, such as Honda most recently. Additionally, there have been some interesting Volt like powertrains that utilize next gen fuel cells. I’ve seen one – I think by Enerdel – that uses a Volt like powertrain that replaces a good chunk of the battery with a fuel cell that is powered by a small gas engine that reformats gas into hydrogen. Supposedly, this configuration would be cheaper and more efficient than the Volt according to early testing.
Of course, in addition to hybrids, Toyota has also been using the Hybrid Synergy Drive to build plug-in hybrid, EV and fuel cell prototypes. So, it seems Toyota has been looking at the whole picture for a long time and has been putting much of that technology into the real world for over a decade, while accruing 1000’s of patents.
KP – GM bet a nice chunk on the Volt, but not their future, at least not technologically. They have investments in numerous hybrid and EV powertrains, in addition to new engine technologies, etc. Additionally, GM realized – thanks to the Prius – that much of the Volt investment can be recovered via marketing and PR. As Bob Lutz used to say before the Volt, GM should have used a chunk of one year’s multi-billion dollar marketing budget to have beaten Toyota to the Prius.
They missed that opportunity, but doubled up on the Volt. Ultimately, I think the Volt was a great PR move that provides some serious chips in the game for GM. Of course, that’s what pisses me off about the Volt, or rather GM. Always plenty of marketing, not always enough product.
Besides, its’ starting to appear that the Volt isn’t necessarily terribly relevant to GM’s future. Emerging markets are GM’s future it appears more and more those markets, most believe, will be dominantly driven by cheaper, ICE vehicles.
Smurf-
I disagree a little regarding your pricing argument with the Volt. Compared to the Prius, plug-in Prius or the Leaf, for instance, the Volt isn’t as cost-effective and might never be without tweaking the powertrain, perhaps significantly. However, in terms of consumer friendliness and foreign oil fighting capabilities, the Volt offers some advantages. For instance, if you’re trying to reduce your foreign oil footprint as much as possible but need more range, then the Volt makes sense for that purpose.
Long term, however, I think that cost-effectiveness will be the ultimate driver. Plus, when you add in some of the battery studies, such as from Carnegie Melon or Oxford you have to question the focus of such vehicles in terms of real world effectiveness. For instance, Carnegie research suggests that the battery pack needs to be smaller than the Volts to have any chance – something like the plug-in Prius or plug-in Focus hybrid – even then though, according to Carnegie, you’d still probably need some kind of dynamic charging to be truly cost-effective. Additionally, Oxford research demonstrates that basic hybrid cars offer far more bang for the back in terms of both foreign oil and CO2 reductions until significant technological breakthroughs are achieved in battery technologies – possibly breakthroughs that will require something beyond lithium.
Nevertheless, minimally, the Volt is driving great research at GM. I don’t really think the Volt can fail. Instead, it will simply transform significantly if it’s not viable. In terms of Volt mistakes, the biggest mistake was too much hype too fast.
Keep us appraised Smurf.
And in the meantime I’ll ask my question in yet another way.
Let’s play What IF.
What IF a game-changing battery break through occurred tomorrow – years ahead of what conventional wisdom was telling us and it dropped the cost 10-fold.
What would happen to the Chevy Volt with that new battery technology if their battery now cost $1000 instead of $10,000 and was 3 times as energy dense?
Is the Chevy Volt – “battery ready” for the future with it’s little ICE electric generator?
Would the Volt then become an Edsel or a huge success?
So.. it’s back to the concept that the Volt uses.
Is their engine/generator setup merely a novel demonstration an economically impractical and unsustainable technology or is their setup a path to the future?
The only thing keeping the Volt in a niche market is the price. It is not unusual for ground breaking technology to have high price initially.
Saying a new solution will not succeed simply because it has a high price is very short sighted….
I’m test driving one tomorrow. I’ll let you know what I think……
It’s the concept in the Volt – not GM or what GM might do with it that is the core of the issue.
Because, if the CONCEPT of using a small ICE to drive an electric generator is fundamentally a good concept – other companies will take the ball and run with it no matter what GM does.
Of course if the concept in the Volt is an Edsel then it will die on the vine – no matter whether GM tries to take it forward or others try.
So, for me, it’s the concept that they used that intrigues me – not GM.
How much of their future did GM bet on this? Its too early, but I’m waiting to see if its more like the Edsel, the Corvair, or the Pinto. Hopefully I’m pleasantly surprised by a success, but I don’t trust Lutz as far as you can throw him. Sounds like Consumer Reports doesn’t either.
Too bad they did away with NUMMI before they could try to learn something again.
If you take 90% of the battery out of the Volt and let it operate primarily as an ICE electricity engine what happens?
The Volt is really a plug-in in name only and at that it costs 10K more than if it did not have it.
If you take the Volt power plant minus the battery but include start/stop technology (which would be easy with an electric engine).. and then put that powerplant in a Chevy Cruz – why would that not be a genuine hybrid competitor to the Prius?