Chances Ford is 25 percent hybrid by 2020?
Can this ever outsell the conventional Escape?
Hybrids set to become much more cost-effective?
Recently, Ford’s director of global electrification, Nancy Gioia, reiterated Ford’s plans to be between 10 and 25 percent battery-powered by 2020, with hybrid cars making up the bulk of those sales, compared with 2 percent today.
Even with gas prices at $2.80 per gallon, Gioia claimed “customers can see a reasonable payback period.”
According to Gioia, conventional hybrids will make up 70 percent of sales, with plug-in hybrids making up another 20-25 percent of sales, and electric cars making up the difference. Overall, plug-in vehicles will have to overcome major affordability and limited infrastructure issues before making up a greater percent of sales, at least as far as Ford believes.
While I would love to see Ford achieve 25 percent penetration by 2020, how do they get there? Obviously, hybrid vehicle costs have to come down, but enough to go from 2 percent to 25 percent in less than a decade?
Certainly, such a forecast seems wildly high, especially for any automaker outside of Toyota, but such a forecast does fall into line with Toyota’s projections for 2020. So, if Toyota can do it, why can’t Ford?
One reason might be batteries. Currently Toyota has a much more robust and sophisticated supply chain for NiMH battery technology, but how much longer is NiMH technology going to power conventional hybrids? When will lithium provide a real-world cost-effective challenge to Nickel?
By as early as 2012, for instance, Ford has suggested that lithium could begin powering conventional hybrids, as well as plug-in hybrids, as lithium costs begin to decline. Thus, by 2020, it isn’t inconceivable to imagine a fairly significant cost-advantage for lithium hybrids compared to NiMH hybrids, but the keyword in that sentence is imagine. Unfortunately, even Gioia admits that whether penetration is 10 or 25 percent will be based on how much lithium prices decline in the next decade.
Consequently, the chances of Ford achieving 25 percent battery-powered penetration by 2020 are probably pretty slim, but at least not impossible.
Well, pooh…
So far, lithium still seems to be THE technology, evolving into something like lithium-air as the next step.
I haven’t read much over the last several months of anyone trying any alternatives to Lithium for EV tech. There’s been variations, of course (li-on air, carbon nanotubes, etc), but has anyone heard of any other attempts at EV battery tech NOT incorporating Lithium?
Just wondering. If can break away from Lithium (some sort of ceramic compound?), that could be a game-changer, both financially and politically.
i definitely believe there should be much more focus on such technologies as well, john. let’s make certain we do what we can do rather than hope things will work out so much better than what the bulk of info available suggests.
even the best case scenario for lithium, in terms of pricing, will still leave lithium vehicles too expensive for most, especially plug-in lithium vehicles. while it’s great that we’re creating a foundation for the future with these vehicles, they are still decades away from having a serious impact.
thus, there needs to be much more focus on what is achievable today.
The fastest cheapest way to achieve is to include start/stop vehicles. Some of the advanced lead batteries can support the higher load and still run the A/C. GM seemed fail at it, but it will soon be standard in Europe. I personally wouldn’t call it a hybrid, but 25% penetration of start/stop saves more fuel overall than 3% market share of electric.