CAFE + Fat America = Gas guzzlers will rule anew
Will hybrids become the base powertrain of larger sedans?
Will hybrids become the base powertrain of larger sedans?
Will large Americans have to buy hybrid sedans or pickups?
Back in May I came across the article, Are Americans Too Big To Drive Small? Then, I found the article comical, but not particularly compelling. However, now that new CAFE regulations are primed to increase passenger car fuel economy while protecting pickup trucks and SUVs through 2020, I’m beginning to wonder if the truck loophole isn’t an even more monumental mistake than it seems — at least in terms of fleet fuel economy.
If most Americans are too chubby for small cars, what will their car of choice be once CAFE starts pushing passenger fuel economy a good bit higher, while protecting gas-guzzlers? Larger hybrids or pickup trucks?
While it’s hard to know exactly how CAFE will play out, current CAFE rules have proven that intended results are usually far from real world consequences, especially since it’s the average — not per car fuel economy — that counts. Hence, Toyota can use the much higher fuel economy of the Prius plug-in hybrid to balance the poorer fuel economy of the Camry, for instance.
Still, larger sedans will need to push their fuel economy higher, and that will probably mean hybrid technology needs to make up a larger percent of larger sedan sales.
Obviously, hybrid sedans cost more than conventional ones. So, if larger Americans find small cars simply unacceptable and they are forced to choose between more expensive hybrid sedans or truck-based vehicles, which will they choose?
It seems that if gas prices spike higher, hybrids could win this battle, but if gas prices stay below $5.00, passenger cars might be on a path to significantly declining market share. And that won’t be good for overall US fuel economy, but at least it will be good for Big 3 automakers.
I don’t think I buy the “Fat American” theory. My partner is heavy and he fits into his Scion xD just fine. He actually likes it better than my larger Insight-II.
we’re about 7/8 of the way through our trip from the East Coast to Washington/Oregon and we’ve seen a LOT of the west including places FAR from the urban areas and the two things that are pretty much a constant are that people in the rural areas own a 4-door pickup …and a 5th wheel camper.
Now.. I’m NOT defending any lifestyle choice but just pointing out that in these folks world – a Prius is a non-starter for a vehicle.
The same pickup that hauls farm equipment… and hauls the family to town to get supplies.. hauls their 5th wheeler and their horse trailer.
The other thing to keep in mind – is that these trucks they have (often diesel) cost 40K+ and up and whatever it is they do for a living.. they can apparently afford them and will continue to buy them.
The vast, vast, vast majority of vehicles on the west interstates are pickups… mini-vans… Subarus (which are very popular apparently) and a smattering of various fuel-efficient vehicles and the RARE Prius and I’ve seen ONE Chevy Volt and zero Nissan Leafs.
Fuel was in the high 3 dollar range in Washington/Oregon but near the Idaho border, it dropped to 3.50 / 3.60. Diesel is more… over $4 in western (populated) Washington/Oregon.
I talked to one guy with a pickup and fifth wheeler and he said …on a “good” day, he got 8mpg.
I’m currently in a KOA (regrettably) where there are about 100 or more 5th wheelers with their 4-door, Diesel pickups attached and their owners parading yapping small dogs around…
On the good news front, we have seen a TON of NEW wind turbines… very impressive!
They’re sitting on tops of the mountains gracefully swinging their wings…..
I don’t know how much these critters cost but someone thinks they are worth the investment and that’s a good thing…
I think its an even broader problem with the American mindset. Its a lack of self-discipline that allows us to get fat and out of shape. That same deficiency makes us take everything with us just in case. We then buy vehicles for worst case scenarios. Take a trip to the beach once a year – you need a minivan! Have to buy some 2×4’s or mulch once or twice a year – you need a full-size pickup! Yet that same person will put 95% of their miles on alone in that vehicle. For the money they could buy an older truck, borrow one, or even buy one early on in their family life and have it last 20 years while they pile up fuel-efficient miles on a sequence 3 or 4 fuel-efficient cars over that same time period.
We do not think efficiently in general. It makes the hybrid conversation even more of an uphill battle.