A long way to go: Tripling Chevy Volt sales by 2015
A great tool for personal foreign oil independence, but not US energy independence?
Can it be done without government incentives?
Would the Chevy Volt sell today without any government incentives? Sure it would, but the amount of early adopters would be a fraction of what exists today. Can prices decline enough by 2015 to triple Volt, or at least Voltec, production without generous government tax subsidies?
And I hope GM meets this goal, yet what does achieving 135,000 Volt, or Voltec, sales by 2015 really mean?
Aside from marketing, the point of the Volt is to reduce oil consumption. A very noble goal, and something the Volt does quite well, technologically. Unfortunately, the Volt doesn’t do this very cost-effectively.
However, if GM significantly increases Voltec production, putting Volt technology into other vehicles, particularly larger vehicles that GM customers love so much, could scale wipe out the need for government subsidies? Considering that GM sells the Volt at $41,000, without any profit margins, costs are going to have to decline very significantly if GM is both going to make a profit off the Volt and pay off the billion it took to develop the Volt. And, if GM puts Voltec technology into larger vehicles, costs go up and EV range goes down.
Even worse, the battery science isn’t very supportive of such a huge battery pricing decline – the key to a cheaper Volt – whether that data is coming from industry, academia or the government.
Hopefully, aggressively pushing Volt production can drive some kind of unexpected breakthrough in battery technologies. Chances are, however, that if the Volt is going to have real impact – which means moving Voltec technology into a significant percent of GM vehicles, not just a few percent – a breakthrough in the Volt’s powertrain might be needed.
For years GM has clung to this idea of 40 miles of EV range. Why?
On average the typical commuter drives less than 40 miles per day. Unfortunately, statistics are often very deceptive. A significant amount of drivers actually commute far less than 40 miles per day, even less than 20 miles on average, yet they regularly supplement these short commutes with much longer drives. Thus, when you break down their yearly mileage, it averages out to 40 miles, but it’s a very deceptive average.
Consequently, I don’t believe 40 miles of EV range is that relevant of a number outside of PR, and it’s even less relevant if it means fewer can afford to drive a Volt. Sure, ending personal oil consumption is a great reason to buy a Volt, but tens upon tens of millions of US drivers need to drive Volt-like vehicles to have even a modest impact upon US foreign oil dependence.
And isn’t that the real goal?
If electrification is the key to foreign oil independence, then the Volt is just the beginning and everything about the Volt should be on the table for refinements, changes, etc. The Volt is not the future, at least not in its current incarnation. Certainly, the Volt is a step in the right direction, but the US and the auto industry have an incredibly long way to go if real oil independence is the goal.
No doubt Chevron sucks Ralph. Still, its not about moving to domestic oil, its about getting off oil. Sure we’ll need some oil for a very long time, but if priced against biofuels, natural gas, etc. then Chevron would be forced to be price competitive.
Here is what everyone is missing about getting off of foriegn oil: even if we were to not need to import one drop of outside oil, prices wouldn’t drop one penny! Why? Because our American oil produces, getting oil from US soil, would still sell us their oil at world market prices. They are even more greedy than Opec. Why would they sell us their oil at a reduced price when they can sell it on the workd market for more? I love it when people say we need to get away from Opec. Wrong! Chevron will still be right there to continue screwing us just they are doing today. It will be business as usual!
I agree CaTiC, and it will only get better, but so much more could be done.
Honestly, how much does foreign oil dependence cost per year? Let’s have the government put some money into that question. It’s hard to have cost-effective solutions when the costs of the problem aren’t very clear. Our society is so dependent upon dirty foreign oil. Thus, only a long term plan can guarantee real change that plan will probably require some pretty extensive coordination across government, industry and academia. But instead of calling it socialism, we’ll call it a war effort. Energy independence can be our revolution..
If we know the costs of our problem, then we can compare potential solutions. Perhaps with a long term, realistic plan we’d realize that the long term ROI of a plan or even several plans more than recovers the short term costs compared to remaining foreign oil dependent.
I might be crazy, but I really believe that you might be able to sell such a plan to the people. Show them how such a plan can rebuild America. Give them something to believe in that isn’t politically or special interest biased. For the few million or less that it would take to fund such a study, it’s easily worth the costs.
i’ve seen higher numbers on the battery. i know a lot of these numbers are based on a government study that many in the auto industry have refuted. r&d and production costs, for instance, have to be added and recovered, as well as possible maintenance and replacement costs might also be needed.
likewise, some have suggested that commodity costs for lithium batteries could increase significantly. a massive increase in production is theoretical at this point. the lithium mines and refining capabilities still need to be developed – mostly in socialist orientated south american countries. there was a piece in the guardian a while back that covered this angle.
there’s (what I thought) a pretty interesting article in the NYT about the Volt – and among other things says the battery weighs more than 400 pounds and costs 10K.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/automobiles/autoreviews/26volt.html?pagewanted=2&hp
Yes, there’s a long way to go, in kwh/kg, in $/kwh, in battery durability and propensity to overheat etc. But to truly rid ourselves of foreign oil, cars and trucks will need to be able to recharge during long trips; this means the recharge time has to come down to 5 minutes, which requires a massive evolution in battery technology AND a new electrical infrastructure…
Yes, we have a long way to go, but at least we have started, and today’s technology, albeit expensive, does provide near complete oil freedom for some of us. And it will only get better from here on…