30,000 Volts of freedom
The Voltecs of foreign oil dependence
Pulling the plug on oil dependence
The highly anticipated Chevy Volt will be available for sale later this year, but only in a few select markets, which is probably a good thing, as there won’t be very many Volts available.
Inevitably, GM’s Volt roll out plans demonstrate that the road to oil independence will be long and winding.
Later this year, GM will roll out the first Chevy Volts to consumers in California; Austin, Texas; New York City; and Washington, DC. and by the first quarter of 2011, the Volt will also be available in Michigan, the rest of Texas, New Jersey and Connecticut. Through 2011, 10,000 Volts will be available sale.
In 2012, GM plans to increase production to 30,000 Volts per year and offer the Volt in all 50 states some time that year. Those interested in purchasing a Volt can sign up here.
For those committed to reducing their personal oil dependence, the launch of the Chevy Volt is fantastic news. Nonetheless, what is the Volt accomplishing?
Before Congress, GM testified that the Chevy Volt should not be seen as a significant factor in GM’s CAFE-reaching capabilities, as Volt production will be limited for at least the first 5 to 10 years according to GM officials. Thus, it could be a decade before GM is selling 100,000 Volts per year in the US, if ever. Yet, even if GM could sell 100,000 Volts per year, such sales would have little impact upon oil dependence.
Of course, a little impact is better than no impact at all, and plug-in vehicles such as the Volt, are extremely important for breaking out of the box that American consumers are so accustomed to driving. Therefore, the Volt is undeniably good news. Unfortunately, however, the Volt is also undeniable proof that American oil independence is still decades away.
And I’m glad you stuck to that point, Larry. The technology itself – batteries – is not going to enable America to simply plug-in our vehicles. There has to be a shift in the way the public thinks.
For a while now I’ve been particularly excited about the possibility of auto-drive. I’m betting that today’s teens would rather have full Internet connectivity that provides texting, tweeting, Youtubing, etc., while letting the computer do the driving. That could open up entirely new business models for personal transportation.
That’s not going to be the complete solution, but it could have a big impact. Couple that with carbon fiber and the safety-possibilities of auto-drive and super efficient transportation pods could really push a paradigm shift amongst auto consumers.
how fast or slow the changeover occurs has a lot to do with a product’s appeal and acceptance by the public….
Technology advances in phases with each new phase coming online in about 1/2 the time as the previous one..
If the next generation Hybrid turns out hybrid-specific ICE…. perhaps NG that uses ordinary propane tanks that can be obtained virtually anyway..
or carbon-fiber technology takes 500 lbs out of Prius-type cars and they bump to 70mpg….
My point about cell phones was that when they first came out.. even though we knew they were “mobile” and not land-line – and the folks in the “know” .. knew they were game-changing technology… the general public did not… once they realized it.. the technology took off.
How many folks.. thought 20 years ago that they’d be “texting”… “tweeting” on a regular basis or able to run a laptop connected to the Internet …from a moving car?
All of this due to cellphone technology…
Nonetheless, Larry, according to most experts, the world is still a decade away from even 10 percent EV share. In fact, some believe it could take two decades to achieve just 10 percent share. Thus, minimally, it will be several decades before plug-ins make up a significant percent of just new vehicle marketshare, and then we’ll still have the legacy effect of many older, far less efficient vehicles to contend with for another 15 to 20 years.
Thus, we have a long tough slog ahead.
@JohnM.. 15 or 20 years is faster than a generation though.. right?
what percentage of people used cells phones in 1973? What percent now?
big change in less than a generation.
What do you mean by “significant numbers”, Smurf?
While I certainly agree that higher gas prices would push more consumers into plug-ins, I still think the far majority of consumers would still go for hybrids and other cheaper technologies, which causes me a lot of concern, particularly because of John’s point 3. That legacy effect is a real blind-sider it seems to me.
Ultimately, I support plug-in vehicles, but I think the tax credits, for instance, are flawed, largely by being too focused on battery size. As John also points out, battery development does have a long way to go.
I’d really like to see more focus on what is truly achievable today, based on today’s technologies with a realistic extrapolation into tomorrow (which researchers are largely able to do with lithium technology through the next decade or so). Hybrids, for example, seemed primed for big gains over the next decade, as does start/stop, HCCI, etc.. Moreover, not only do hybrids increase fuel economy today, while priming consumers for the idea of plugging in, they also offer an interesting angle for attacking the legacy effect.
On top of that, I’d really like to see more competition across various different technologies.
Instead of a battery tax credit, why not a 50 mpg (based on EPA city) tax credit. that scales by 10 mpgs every 5 years or something.
perhaps, then a carbon fibered Cruze, or algae-fueled Focus, for instance, could compete with both a Leaf and a Prius for tax credits.
that might not be the right path, but i’d just like to see more competition and more consumer choice.
The cellphone wildfire started in 1973, was available to he public in 1977. By 1983, brick size handsets could be purchased. I rented one of these for $10/day and $1/minute to talk. By 1993, for $50/month you’d get 30 minutes free. The wildfire smoldered for more than 20 years before the flames erupted. Cars may take even longer:
1. There is plenty of room to improve ICE/hybrids.
2. Battery development has a long way to go
3. It still takes 15-20 years to get the current cars off the road.
If the Volt and other plugins become cost effective, it’s a no-brainer that they will succeed. But can they succeed without cost effectiveness? Maybe….
I think there is a price point for gasoline that could cause Americans to purchase plugins in significant numbers, even though they are not truly cost effective yet.
If gas prices go up enough, many consumers will be willing to pay more to reduce their gasoline consumption just because “emotionally” they hate paying the higher gas prices.
That’s basically what happened in 2008. $4.00 per gallon was not enough to make the Prius cost effective, but it was enough to motivate Americans to go out and buy the Prius in significant numbers.
What gasoline price will it take for plugins? That’s a tough call. I think it is somewhere around $5.00 per gallon though…
real world costs are something that automakers keep somewhat secret. however, if the experts are to be believed, the Volt is not the most cost-effective powertrain based on the capabilities of today’s lithium technology. when it comes to plug-ins, the far majority of experts have claimed that a small battery plug-in hybrid offers the most cost-effective bang for the buck, as well as the most ‘comfort’ for consumers in terms of range anxiety, etc.
in the beginning that won’t matter, as the early adopters won’t really be motivated primarily by cost-effectiveness, but brand loyalty and other factors.
eventually, however, it seems cost-effectiveness will be critical. thus, i just don’t see the Volt becoming a 100,000 sales per year vehicle without a technological breakthrough. even then, however, such a breakthrough might then make pure electric vehicles more cost-effective than the Volt.
nonetheless, i do agree that, as a whole, plug-ins could be more successful than many are predicting, including myself, but not by much.
If a new technology is powerful enough – it can move like wildfire – just look at cellphones.
If the Volt – DELIVERS – and new plug-ins come to market that also “deliver” – it could go much quicker than we think.
Right now, I think there is doubt even among supporters and folks who want it to succeed that it will deliver.
but remember back when cell phones first came to market – people thought the concept was cool but boy there was a lot of doubt that they would ever ‘deliver’ but, in fact, it’s history now.
Even in the outer boondocks the most remote places in the world.. cellphones are starting to appear – and 3G is bringing internet access to those who would have never got it if waiting for cable to find them.