Lightening the load to better fuel economy

The evolution of carbon fiber

One of the greatest ways to increase fuel economy is to reduce weight. Thus, exotic materials, such as carbon fiber, have excited automakers with the possibility of much lighter, yet stronger, cars. Unfortunately, costs have kept these materials from mainstreaming.

Recently, however, BMW announced that its Megacity electric car would use carbon fiber. As the Megacity is planned as a volume vehicle, it's use of carbon fiber implies the possibility of some cost-effective angle.

Likewise, Daimler also announced it will increase the use of carbon fiber in its Mercedes SL class. Of course, the SL class is an expensive class of vehicle, so perhaps carbon fiber isn't quite there yet.

Regardless, a new study by Lotus demonstrates that most vehicles could be made 38 percent lighter by 2020 at a cost of just 3 percent, while improving fuel economy by 23 percent. Furthermore, the Lotus study also achieved an additional 13 percent reduction in powertrain weight using hybrid technology.

Cost-effective, safe fuel economy. For what are we waiting?

The ethics of gas-guzzling

Who is responsible for the consequences of our actions?

Somehow I lost about 9 hours yesterday watching Goldman Sach's testimony. Wow. What a circus.

Anyway, ethics was a big theme at the Goldman grilling, and subcommittee Chairmen Carl Levin essentially called Goldman's recent profits, and the bonuses those profits created, unethical. Since, Levin's focus on ethics has been ringing in my head.

For instance, as a staunch advocate of the Big 3 - and a protector of the gas-guzzler - I cannot help but wonder about the ethics of Mr. Levin. Was it ethical, for example, for Levin to habitually protect an industry that could only compete in the American market if it produced the biggest gas-guzzlers, despite very early and significant evidence that highly profitable SUVs would lead to outrageous road deaths, increased pollution, and much greater foreign oil dependence?

Furthermore, even after events like Katrina and 9/11, did the Michigan Congressional delegation, including Levin, begin to demand more of their hometown industry? Did they dare to lead America, to do the right thing, even if it meant a short term loss of profits? Of course not. Instead, companies like GM rolled out upgraded versions of their largest gas-guzzlers as survivors sifted through wreckage from the World Trade Center.

Ethical?

Obviously, this question of ethics extends far beyond Goldman and Michigan and onto the driveways of many Americans, for instance. And, Mr. Levin was right to hammer down on ethics. Yet, the real question seems to be, can you even legislate ethics, particularly when even most legislators, like most Americans, seem to have regular and significant ethical lapses.

Hybrids and the end of the American car

Karma: Is this really the path towards efficiency for the masses?

For decades the US has driven the world's auto industry. If an automaker could make it here, they could make it anywhere. But, is America still that important?

Recently, China topped the US in auto sales, yet the Chinese auto market has barely been scratched. Likewise, add in the potential of all 4 BRIC countries, let alone the rest of the emerging markets, and the importance of the US market could be significantly marginalized in just a decade or two.

Even more interesting, by 2030, according to a plethora of research, hybrid cars and EVs - the proverbially future of the US market - will achieve, in a best case scenario, a combined 30 percent share in the US. Yet, in the developing world, share will probably be significantly lower as most research suggests emerging markets will embrace far cheaper forms of transportation than US-like products.

Thus, just how important is the battery to auto industry success?

When Henry Ford, for example, revolutionized the US auto industry, his success was driven by efficiency. Efficient scalability, or cost-effective solutions for the greatest numbers, powered the US auto industry for decades. Then, of course, the market saturated and maximized quarterly profits, rather than increased efficiency, took over the US auto market.

But the automotive world is quickly changing. New and huge, yet totally un-American markets are quickly emerging. While American autos might be cost-effective for some early adopters in some emerging markets, will they be cost-effective for the masses? Will adding batteries to American autos make them more cost-effective, or less cost-effective, for the masses?

If Henry Ford's efficient scalability is the key to the future of auto industry success, doesn't the US market have to become more worldly? Moreover, can the world market, ultimately, be based on anything other than the cheapest and safest efficiency possible, whether that includes batteries or not?

Volt technology only good for Volt-sized cars

Only for the Delta platform

Alan Taub, GM's head of global research and development, recently told AutoCar that the Voltec powertrain powering the Chevy Volt is only viable for Volt-sized vehicles. According to Taub, GM's range extended electric vehicle technology is too big for cars smaller than the Volt, and adding batteries for larger vehicles would make the powertrain too heavy.

Instead, GM will probably look to a plug-in version of its dual mode hybrid technology for bigger than Volt vehicles, and it's new BAS hybrid powertrain for smaller hybrid cars.

Carbon-fiber Megacity EV intrigues

Nice body

BMW confirmed today that it will sell the Megacity compact electric car under an unconfirmed sub-brand by 2013 in the Chinese market.

Beyond that, details are sketchy, however, according to Cars.com, "the car will feature carbon fiber-reinforced materials." Since BMW has a carbon fiber facility in the US, Cars.com suggests a US version wouldn't be shocking.

Who cares? Some version will make it to the US.

Instead, I want to hear more about the carbon fiber, especially considering the Megacity appears to a volume car, which suggests volume pricing. Is carbon fiber finally set to become cost-effective and competitive?

Chevy Volt MPV5 minivan concept

The latest Voltec creation

GM debuted a compact minivan version of the Chevy Volt today in Beijing, China according to Straightline.

EV range drops to 32 miles, compared to the Volt's 40 miles, but the gasoline engine can provide another 300 miles of electric power.

Interesting, but I think I'd call it the MPV5 crossover, not compact minivan.

Chinese plugs-ins: What about the coal?

Are coal-powered EVs right for China?

There is a big move afoot in China to quickly move it's developing auto industry from today's petroleum-guzzling technologies to battery powered technologies. Yet, not everyone in China agrees that's a good idea.

Because China derives 83 percent of it's electricity from coal, Huang Xiangdong, vice president of Guangzhou Automobile Group Corp., a major Chinese carmaker that has ventures with Honda Motor Co. and other global players, according to the DetroitNews, believes the move to plug-ins is premature.

Because of this reliance upon coal, according to Xiangdong, "battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids do not save more energy than conventional cars on a well-to-wheel analysis," said Huang. "We think in China it's not the right time to promote pure electric vehicles."

The Chevy Volt and the end of Government Motors

You've come a long way baby

So, GM repaid the final $5.8 billion owed in government bailout loans. That's great. Of course, it might have been a bit nicer had GM returned the people's money with actual profits, rather than a government escrow account, but the perception of Government Motors is undoubtedly holding GM back. Paying off this debt helps remove that ugly blemish.

Nevertheless, $5.8 billion is pocket change. GM's real debt to America is ....

Finish: The Chevy Volt and the end of Government Motors

75 percent of Chinese want to buy a hybrid

Citroen's Chinese hybrid

Yesterday, I flipped on CNBC and caught the end of Jim Cramer commenting on recent Chinese energy moves, during which Cramer roughly remarked that China doesn't care about next quarter's profits. Communists don't think in quarters, he said, instead they think multi-year. Likewise, Cramer claimed that China is making moves based on 2020 supply projections.

Can America compete with this?

Just the other day 13 Chinese lithium battery related companies bought out Australian-based Galaxy Resources Limited's lithium carbonate product for the next five years. Like the Japanese and Koreans, the Chinese are also making huge lithium moves, including mining their own lithium and rare metals.

Likewise, a few days ago Citroen announced the launch of the Citroen Metropolis Concept, a hybrid designed in China for the Chinese market, Citroen's largest market outside of Europe. Similarly, GM recently pushed ahead the launch of the Chevy Volt in China, where that automaker currently maintains a next gen powertrain and battery lab.

More important, already the Chinese realize oil-powered Buicks are not their future. Recently, a couple of new consumer studies found that 3 of 4 Chinese auto consumers are ready to buy a "new energy" vehicle, with most expressing interest in gasoline hybrid cars. Of course, like most American consumers, the purchase is dependent upon cost. In China, consumers are willing to pay 11 - 15 percent more for a hybrid compared to a conventional vehicle.

This potential pushed Warren Buffett to buy a large share of Chinese battery and car producer BYD, a company Buffett believes will quickly become the world's largest automaker, with much of its success built upon battery-powered hybrids and plug-in vehicles. Most important, that success could be largely independent of both US and European auto markets if nationalism were to overtake the Chinese market.

Certainly, none of this guarantees Chinese success, but I wouldn't bet against this waking giant.

Hitachi battery breakthrough not for cars?

Only for large scale storage

I've been following a story on Hitachi lithium magnesium batteries for the last week or two. When I originally read about this breakthrough, I was a bit skeptical. Just days earlier, I had learned that Hitachi desperately needed to derive new sources of revenue, so I suspected this claim of doubling the life span of lithium batteries might just have been an overly positive statement meant for potential shareholders.

Instead, it seems to be the real deal.

Sadly, however, there is no near term value for such batteries in the automotive space, instead these batteries are specifically designed for large scale industrial use, such as "electrical power storage in wind power generation and other new energy fields, and as industrial power sources for electric-powered construction machinery designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

In fact because of the potential of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrids, Hitachi worried that increased demand for cobalt would eventually make its large scale battery applications too expensive. Hence, several years ago Hitachi began developing new lithium ion batteries that used more manganese spinel materials, rather than cobalt. Unfortunately, first gen batteries only offered a life span of about 5 years, but new prototypes based on new cathode materials have shown the ability to double this lifespan.

Perhaps one day this breakthrough will find its way into hybrids and plug-ins, but even if not ever suitable for automotive applications, this breakthrough could still help more green energy find its way into plug-in vehicles.

Whoohooo! Fuel efficiency rules

Dumping big

A new survey demonstrates that 53 percent of new car buyers will buy a more fuel efficient vehicle than their current model, while 54 percent are willing to downsize their vehicle choice. Likewise, 78 percent of respondents believe alternative vehicles are not a temporary fad, and 34 percent are considering an alternative vehicle as their next purchase.

Not surprisingly, the key reason for not buying an alternative vehicle in the interim was price.

I hate Prius drivers!

You're so smug

Came across MotorTrend's Smug Alert! Paper examines Park Slope Prius Panic and, of course, I had to check it out. Apparently a NY newspaper went into a neighborhood that "so creepily resembles San Francisco" and is, therefore, home to a high number of hybrid drivers. For instance, the reporter went to a Park Slope, NY coop where 6 out of 14 cars in the parking lot were Prius hybrids, so they were interviewed on their worries of sudden acceleration.

None were worried. Instead, these Toyota Prius drivers were concerned with how a few bad drivers and an overly-sensationalized media might hurt the long term value of their hybrid cars.

MotorTrend's author called the newspaper's piece the most insightful story on the hybrid icon since the "Smug Alert!" episode of "South Park", which was actually a pretty funny episode, as there is no doubt some smugness in the hybrid community.

So what?

In my SoCal neighborhood, for instance, there is easily as much smugness amongst USC football fans driving their BMWs and Range Rovers regarding both their luxury vehicles and their football team. At least Prius drivers are deriving their smugness from trying to do something positive - not just for themselves, but for everyone and the environment.

What is football smugness about?

Again, there is no doubt that some Prius drivers are smug. It seems most of us are a little smug about something. Nevertheless, surveys prove that a huge majority of Americans are worried about foreign oil dependence, yet most seemingly just bury their heads in the sand and pretend nothing can be done. Perhaps some of this 'smugness' perception is less about Prius drivers and more about gas-guzzling guilt?

115,000 express interest in Leaf

Ready to order yours?

CNBC is reporting that Nissan is accepting orders for the Nissan Leaf, but the Nissan website states that pre-ordering begins April 20 and that deliveries will begin in December.

Regardless, CNBC reports that some 115,000 have expressed interest in the Leaf, or at least in more information regarding the new electric car.

HK Motors to develop natural gas hybrids

An HK concept

I'm still not sure that I believe Hybrid Kinetics Motor Company will be around in 5 years, however, if everything goes as expected, HK will begin producing a family of natural gas hybrid vehicles in 2013 at it's Alabama manufacturing facility.

In partnership with the American Public Gas Association (APGA) and NGVAmerica, HK hopes to develop a new natural gas infrastructure, while lobbying the government to pass the The NAT GAS Act of 2009.

Ford - Much more fed money needed for battery research

To power with American batteries

"Despite $25 billion to help automakers retool plants, a $7,500 tax credit and billions in stimulus funding for charging stations and related infrastructure, automakers continue to lobby the federal government for more aid to spur sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles," notes Kicking Tires this morning.

And while giving the closing speech at the Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress yesterday, Bill Ford Jr echoed this sentiment, calling for greater government involvement regarding electric vehicles, particularly battery research, according to the DetroitNews.

Nonetheless, as Kicking Tires suggests, and has been discussed endlessly on this blog, doesn't it all really come down to the price of gas?

Chevy Volt heads to China next year

Ready to take on BYD

GM continues to ramp up its Chinese investments, and the automaker plans to double that amount of models it sells in China over the next few years.

One of the first new vehicles to hit China will be the Chevy Volt, which will launch late this year in the US, followed by the Chinese launch in 2011.

Related: Does China own the keys to the Chevy Volt?

"Too many solutions" to improve fuel economy?

Batteries or fuels, both?

I've been following the Society of Automotive Engineers World Congress conference, and I've been amazed at the lack of consensus among experts on how to move the auto industry forward. While there is some consensus that the battery is the long term plan, costs will prevent the battery from dominating the auto industry for some time according to the majority of experts.

So, what should be done in the interim?

"There are too many solutions to choose from and they all cost money," claims John Juriga, director of powertrain for the Hyundai-Kia America Technical Center, and that sentiment seems to echo through the SAE's conference halls.

Cellulosic ethanol, natural gas, methanol, synthetic fuels, smaller cars, new engine technologies, hybrids, electric cars and fuel cell vehicles are all being explored, yet each automaker can only truly focus on a few of these solutions. Yet, every automaker must follow all of these technologies as one technological breakthrough, or change in government policy, could game change any of these possibilities the experts claim.

I don't know. Are there too many solutions, or just too few reasons to actually change?

Incentives for hybrid buyers

Even some deals on the Prius?

For the last several months Honda has offered the best deals for hybrid shoppers, but for those not interested in a Honda hybrid, the hybrid bargains haven't been as plentiful.

Last night, however, I stopped by my local Toyota dealership and found several hybrid specials, even on the Toyota Prius. For instance I could lease a package 2 Prius for $249 month, or receive a $500 rebate or 0 percent financing on a Camry hybrid.

Anyone else been shopping hybrid cars recently?

The wrong path to energy independence

The most important vehicle in America?

GreenCarCongress has an interesting summary of two of the latest studies on plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The first, a UC-Davis study "estimates electricity and gasoline use under three recharging scenarios", and amongst its key findings deduces "The majority of gasoline reduction is due to increases in CS (charge-sustaining, i.e., conventional hybrid mode) fuel economy, not in the displacement of gasoline with electricity in CD (charge-depleting, i.e., electric-power) mode."

The second, a UC Berkely study claims plug-in hybrid value has up to now been undervalued. The true value of plug-in hybrids is defined by their ability to provide fuel choice to consumers, or "properly accounting for the uncertain path of future fuel prices and for the PHEV driver’s ability to respond to these prices by choosing the day’s fuel can raise the battery price at which PHEVs may pay for themselves".

Finish - Plug-in tax credits: The wrong path to energy independence

Does China own the keys to the Chevy Volt?

GM's plug-in wild card?

What's the coolest car in China? It's a Buick, of course, which is good news for GM, as China is the hottest automotive market in the world. In fact, quite soon GM could be selling more than 3 million cars in China annually.

And that's the thought I couldn't get out of my head yesterday during a GM conference call on the Volt and the lithium-ion batteries powering GM's EV. During the call, GM mentioned the importance of its battery lab in Shanghai, China, a lab focused on next generation propulsion systems, such as the Voltecs powering the Chevy Volt.

Why care?

China is quickly becoming a very important lithium ion manufacturer and the country is developing fairly aggressive plans to increase electric vehicle adoption. If GM can work this relationship successfully, they might be able to own a piece of lithium-cell manufacturing and increase the profitability of all their battery-powered vehicles. Moreover, selling Voltec vehicles in China helps scale down costs in all markets.

Certainly, GM's battery-powered dreams are not dependent upon China, but the potential of GM's Chinese play is extremely intriguing.

Quick dropping the EV

Making electric cars more cost-effective

If plug-in vehicles are to ever become cost-effective for the masses, there is a very good chance that new battery technologies beyond lithium-ion will be required. Unfortunately, such new technologies could take decades to develop. Of course, ideas like dynamic charging, where plug-in vehicles could charge while driving, could change that by requiring smaller battery packs.

Likewise, Better Place's idea for "quick dropping" battery packs could also be a difference maker, and Renault and Better Place will be putting this idea to the test in France with a public trial.

While it seems a pretty radical idea, if Better Place can prove the viability of the quick drop, they'll be at the forefront of an entirely new business model of car ownership that not only promises to make EV ownership much cheaper, but car ownership.

And the Volt charges ahead

Ready to end your foreign oil dependence?

Just got off a conference call with GM regarding the Chevy Volt. In a nutshell, everything is going great. After testing the Volt battery pack in essentially every type of weather and driving condition possible, all systems are go for the November launch. Still, a few notes did stick out.

First, 40 miles of EV range has been the average, although 20 percent variation in both directions is expected. Once in range extended mode, the Volt should still achieve about 50 mpg and offer a range of at least 300 additional miles beyond the original 40 miles of EV range.

Second, GM is forecasting a nice price reduction in battery costs by the second generation thanks to supply base efficiencies, and the third generation battery pack could see as much as a 50 percent reduction in cost.

Third, while GM seemed very careful on this issue, the future of the Volt could include a smaller battery pack and shorter EV range. Again, GM was very guarded on this point. Likewise, GM's Andrew Farah, the leader of the Volt program, claimed that new energy densities in lithium-ion technology might also provide the same 40 miles of EV range but in a smaller battery pack.

Nonetheless, my read in between the lines is that GM is increasing their Volt focus on costs, and I believe that if GM realizes that a 20 or 30 mile Volt would double sales, then they'd offer such an option by the third generation battery pack. Of course, such a battery pack is still several years away.

Higher insurance for Toyota hybrid drivers?

One of the most unsafe vehicles on the road?

If Toyota doesn't pay State Farm for unintended acceleration claims, all Toyota drivers could be hit with higher insurance premiums according to Straightline.

Is this fair? Can State Farm even prove unintended acceleration?

Likewise, Forbes has released its Worst Cars Made Cars on the Road list, yet it doesn't include one Toyota vehicle, although it does indirectly include one hybrid. Using Consumer Reports and JD Power data, Forbes determined that the Cadillac Escalade was one of the worst-made vehicles on the road, and the Escalade also comes in a hybrid version.

Moreover, according to decades of data, Toyota has been safer and more reliable than most other automotive brands.

Obviously, State Farm has a right to seek compensation, but is it fair to punish consumers that are driving vehicles that have saved State Farm money for decades compared to the competition?

Double dipping: $100 oil inevitable next year

$5.00 gas not that far off?

With oil touching $87 per barrel this week, numerous forecasters are now predicting $100+ per barrel next year. Fortunately, most don't believe that will derail the economic recovery, yet.

Still, as Lutz Kilian, a University of Michigan economist that studies oil shocks told the Financial Times, “You can’t have a global recovery without the oil price recovering as well.”

Ultimately, $100.00 oil is probably inevitable next year, and from there prices only trend higher. Unlike the last time oil hit $100.00 per barrel, thankfully, the US isn't in a housing bubble. Still, how high can prices go before the economy takes a serious hit?

Plugging in is America's best chance forward?

The Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid

According to The Electric Coalition, if the US set in motion a plan to be 75 percent EV by 2040, that plan would result in massive job creation, a smaller deficit and an increase in household wealth. Obviously, and of course, the plan would require significant targeted incentives for the purchase of plug-in vehicles, infrastructure, etc.

Sadly, however, the report also shows that the US is probably going to be dependent upon foreign oil for a very long time forward, regardless of whether this plan is put into motion or not.

If true isn't this also more proof of the importance of natural gas, purely as an interim solution, particularly if new horizontal drilling techniques can be proven groundwater safe? Ultimately, it seems natural gas could provide many of the same economic benefits as this EV plan, but sooner. Couldn't that more immediate savings then help fund this EV plan?

Inevitably, it is going to take more than 3 decades for electrification to completely displace the need for America's foreign oil dependence. Can't we do more in the interim to facilitate this plan?

A fully employed America at $5.00 a gallon gas?

Can gasoline prices go anywhere but up?

Any major US economic recovery, as well as world economic recovery, will require massive increases in oil consumption, according to the energy experts, and that means much higher gasoline prices.

Yet, despite the relatively stagnant economy, gas prices are already increasing, and an upward pricing trend appears inevitable throughout the next decade. Even more disconcerting, there are numerous, highly likely events that could spark huge spikes in gasoline prices.

If $5.00 per gallon is the new $2.00, can America ever again achieve 'full' employment? While seemingly oxymoronic, might not accepting the reality of $5.00 gasoline be the key to full employment?

Honda's Volt-like plug-in hybrids coming soon?

GM's range extended plug-in Volt

When the next Honda Accord hits the streets, it just might come with a plug-in option according to some Honda insiders. It seems Honda has been quietly developing a Chevy Volt-like plug-in hybrid drive that also utilizes capacitors to increase EV range.

In addition to the next Accord, Honda's new plug-in drive could also be fitted to larger vehicles, including SUVs.

Bigger, more powerful CR-Z hybrid on the way

Just add 2 more seats and a bigger engine?

Whether it will be called the CR-Z hybrid sedan or the new hybrid Accord coupe, it seems a larger more powerful hybrid sports car is in Honda's future.

According to sources inside Honda, the new hybrid will offer 4 seats and a new engine, probably a new 2.5 liter four cylinder engine, but possibly a V-6 version as well. Moreover, Honda is likely to add a new feature that enables drivers to choose between performance and fuel efficiency.

Prius continues to dominate Japanese auto sales

More than 35,000 sold in March

Toyota sold almost 3 times as many Prius hybrids in Japan as compared to the US in March. With a whopping 35,546 units sold last month in its home market, the Prius topped Japanese sale's charts for the 11th month in a row, largely thanks to government incentives.

Just another example of the importance of government involvement in the development of battery-powered vehicles?

A battery-powered chance for the Big 3

Detroit's best selling hybrid

Last year, Toyota sold hundreds of thousands of hybrid cars, and since the launch of the Prius, Toyota has sold millions of hybrids.

Ford, the leading American hybrid manufacturer, has only sold about 125,000 hybrids in total since the launch of its first hybrid.

Fortunately, Toyota uses NiMH batteries in its hybrids, rather than the lithium-ion batteries that will power the future of hybrid cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Thus, it seems the Big 3 have a chance to catch up to Toyota's battery-powered lead.

Yet, the Big 3 - and America - seem woefully unprepared.

If the battery is the key to plug-in vehicle viability and profits, then the Big 3 could be in trouble. Experts claim that some 70 percent of battery-powered value is found in lithium cell production, something that is practically non-existent in the US, particularly in terms of the auto. Moreover, companies like Toyota have already secured massive amounts of lithium for cell and battery production, production that Toyota will own a share of from the ground up, literally.

Now comes word that Japan is going to offer Bolivia a huge package of economic aid in exchange for lithium and rare metals.

Considering the massive investments the government has already made in the Big 3, coupled with analysis that suggests the lithium battery wars could be won within the next 5 to 10 years, is it time for an even bigger government role in the US auto industry?

Next gen plug-in batteries decades away

No real change until this changes?

Over the next several years manufacturing improvements will significantly reduce the cost of lithium-ion battery technologies for hybrid and plug-in vehicles. Inevitably, however, commodity pricing will impose a price threshold upon current battery technologies that will still be too high for most consumers according to researchers.

Thus, new battery technologies will be required to mainstream battery powered vehicles, and one of the most researched 'new' battery technologies is lithium-air.

Recently, breakthroughs in catalyst efficiencies have hinted that lithium-air batteries might eventually replace lithium-ion batteries because of their significantly better energy density. Nonetheless, top researchers claim it could take a decade or more just to work out the significant science and engineering challenges that remain before commercialization. Even then many years of cell phone and computer applications would be required before such technologies could become cost-effective for automotive applications.

Optima: Cheapest hybrid sedan yet?

Kia's killer hybrids?

If all goes as expected, the Hyundai Sonata hybrid should be the most cost-effective hybrid sedan available when it goes on sale later this year, but that reign probably won't last long.

Next year, Hyundai will also roll out the Kia Optima hybrid, which we assume will use the same hybrid drive as the Sonata hybrid. However, based on current Optima and Sonata pricing, that should make the Otpima hybrid even cheaper and more cost-effective than the Sonata hybrid.

Up next for Hyundai, a cheaper, more cost-effective Toyota Prius competitor?

Hybrids: Reasons not to listen to Forbes

It won't create energy independence?

Yesterday, Forbes ran Reasons not to buy a hybrid, yet Forbes couldn't offer one compelling reason not to buy a hybrid, assuming energy independence was their primary goal, as stated in their subtitle.

Hybrid vehicles, even the plug-in kind, are simply inefficient because they have two powertrains according to Forbes.

Who cares? Success is about one thing and one thing only, cost-effectiveness. According to Toyota, sometime after 2020 the price difference between hybrids and non-hybrids will be a minor fraction of what is today, and quickly recovered via gains in fuel economy, especially if gas prices continue to rise in the next decade.

Even if true, they still can't lead to energy independence Forbes claims.

Why not? A fleet of natural gas and/or biofueled hybrids and plug-in hybrids could EASILY lead to the end of foreign oil dependence. Likewise, such development would more quickly advance battery technology. Moreover, as battery technology evolves, hybrids and plug-ins could be upgraded to even more efficient batteries, negating the legacy effects caused by conventional vehicles upon energy dependence.

Instead, the Forbe's plan to energy independence is better highway fuel economy, smaller cars and diesel fuel. Apparently, that's the cheapest way to burn through the rest of the world's oil, which naturally ends our foreign oil dependence of course.

Japan set to coast through CAFE increases

But will there be loopholes?

German and US automakers will have to pay significantly more per vehicle to meet new US auto emissions requirements compared to Asian automakers. For instance, VW will have to pay $1694.00 more per vehicle in 2016. GM will have to pay $1219.00 more.

On the other hand, Toyota and Honda will have to pay just $455 and $575 more respectively.

I guess that's the benefit of being forward-thinking and not putting too many eggs in too few baskets?

Recall can't slow Toyota Prius sales

What recall?

US Toyota Prius sales jumped 27 percent in March compared to last year, as Toyota sold 11,786 units.

Overall, Toyota sold 16,714 hybrid vehicles in March.

I guess that pretty much sums up the lack of Prius sale's incentives since the recalls.

Would VMT hurt hybrid sales?

Killing the gas tax

In 2008 there was a $140 billion budget shortfall in highway funding that helped crunch many state budgets, and the problem is only expected to worsen as new CAFE requirements take effect.

Thus, many states and the Feds are considering a move away from a gas tax to a Vehicles Miles Traveled tax.

Since a good chunk of the price of gasoline goes to taxes, hybrid vehicles and plug-ins can avoid a large percent of this tax compared to other vehicles. However, a VMT tax would take away this advantage.

Would a VMT tax hurt hybrid and plug-in sales?