Plug-in adoption underestimated? Big 3 screwed either way?
A new study by PRTM, a global management consulting firm, suggests recent predictions of large format lithium-ion battery surpluses within the next decade are largely "unfounded."
Instead, PRTM is predicting a battery shortfall by 2016. Likewise, even if plug-in demand is less than expected, utility demand for large format batteries could pick up the slack, a point other studies have missed according to PRTM.
Most interesting, the US and Europe are facing serious shortfalls in lithium cell manufacturing compared to Asia. Unfortunately, cell manufacturing accounts for 70 percent of the value of a lithium battery pack - the key to plug-in profits - and this underinvestment in cell manufacturing could "have wide-ranging consequences in global competitiveness."