Peak oil in 2014 according to Kuwaiti researchers
And the decline is set to begin?Researchers from Kuwait University and from Kuwait Oil Company are predicting that world conventional crude oil production is set to peak in 2014. Using a new multicycle Hubbert Model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries and came up with their 2014 forecast.
Labels: peak oil
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:18 AM
10 Comments:
I don't know if this is the venue for a Peak Oil discussion, but I have one comment.
If you look at the original Hubbert Model, the oil production charts are for a given price of oil per barrell. That is, at, say, a low price only "sweet light crude" production is economical and that will peak. At a higher price, heavier, harder to extract oil production is economical and that will have a different peak.
So, conceptually, my notion is that of course there is peak oil as Hubbert's Model says, but you always need to know what "type" of Oil is being predicted to peak for any given prediction. And then you ask, are their heavier types of oil and what is their production potential at higher prices.
In practice, I do recognize that it is the Peak of relatively cheap oil that matters. When that happens, and I'll believe whatever the credible models say, then oil will get more and more expensive such that even if there is supply the impact to the economy (and the environment due to tougher production methods) will be painful.
Again, this is just my current understanding that I wanted to get feedback on. :)
Most peak oil models do take into account oil that must be extracted using more difficult methods. This oil will be more difficult to extract and thus will have a lower production level, regardles of the price.
Basically, the model is based upon the relationship between annual discoveries of new oil and the maximum production level possible.
There are two basic "facts" built into the model:
1. US oil discoveries peaked in the 1930's and US oil production peaked in 1971. (A fact unknown to most Americans)
2. World oil discoveries peaked in the 1960's.
Using those two facts we can conclude that world oil production is at or near it's peak.
This does not mean we have run out of oil. It simply means that we have reached our maximum level of annual oil production.
As long as annual consumption/demand is lower than annual production we have no major issues. It is only when demand begins to reach and exceed production levels (like it did in 2008) that we have a problem. Luckily, the Global recession of 2008 lowered global demand for oil, bringing it back down below production levels.
The questions we should ask are:
Was the 2008 recession actually caused by peak oil?
Will demand exceed production levels again once the global economy recovers, pushing us right back into another recession?
i think smurf covered your basic question, alcatholic, and better than i could have without some research.
while i have paid a good bit of attention to the energy markets in the last few years, i'm still unfamiliar with the intricacies of the Hubbert Model.
So, i'll move on to Smurf's questions.
Minimally, I would say that peak oil-like (via limitations in refinement capacity, if not peak oil itself) conditions were a piece of the recession, as the gaming in the oil markets affected the entire financial industry, with some major hedgefunds using oil as their key investment and indicator.
ultimately, the energy markets slaughtered a lot of investors, in addition to making the cost of everything more expensive.
Just as interesting, while demand is down, it's not down as much as most would have expected, mostly because of China. At the same time, Chinese auto purchases month-after-month were up more than 50 percent last month.
What happens to these numbers once the economy rebounds? It seems Chinese demand for oil is set to explode.
Then again, can the economies of the world fully rebound if energy prices rise significantly?
Perhaps even most interesting of all, can real, long term-sustainable economic growth be achieved without significant advances away from oil dependence - assuming peak oil is true and near?
Anyway, a great person once said the most one can ask from life is to live in interesting times. We certainly live in interesting times and they appear on the verge of becoming much more interesting.
The USA already has a company, Coskata, that has the technology to make ethanol from garbage and landfill, at less than $1/gallon. If we started building the factories now, and mandated cars to be E85 flexfuel, then the US could use just our own oil reserves, until auto engineers figure out how to run cars up North, on E100, like the Brazilians do.
Actually, the reason E85 is 15% gasoline is to prevent people from drinking it.
Straight E100 ethanol could be consumed (although I wouldn't recommend it)
Interesting article on MSN predicting $200 per barrel oil prices in the not-so-distant future....
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/will-oil-hit-200-dollars-after-all.aspx
lrogers-
according to a recent Oxford study, such ethanol still only has limited, localized use in displacing petroleum. in fact, according to that study, and replicated in others, only algae-based biofuels offer a real way to offset petroleum. however, even those fuels are still dependent upon massive breakthroughs.
that Oxford study could be wrong, but most of the science on the subject seems to indicate that all current biofuels have very limited ability to displace oil. since i'm not a scientist in this area, i have to rely on the science i can find.
have any good scientific literature disputing Oxford et al?
smurf-
i've seen similar reports on CNBC.
Most analysts still see $100 oil this year, despite the recession.
any major global recovery will easily push oil out towards $150 - 200 per barrel.
the real question becomes, can a global recovery be achieved if it means sustained $200 per barrel oil? or do energy prices automatically enforce a much more lengthy recession?
Dahc,
That's my concern as well.
Can an "oil-based" economy ever flourish if oil prices rise significantly every time the economy improves?
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