2012: A key year in the lithium wars
Ready for conversionBy as early as 2014, according to recent analysis, the winners of the automotive battery industry might have already won and revenues will rule.
Within the next few years a number of lithium-powered hybrids, plug-in hybrids and EVs will hit the road. Initially, most will be low-volume vehicles. Consequently, sales of NiMH hybrids will continue to dominate for some time, unless of course Toyota converts the Prius into a lithium hybrid.
Considering the importance of lithium, how long can Toyota wait before committing to lithium for its flag ship Toyota Prius? Even if Toyota's lithium-powered plug-in Prius tops plug-in sales by 2014, that might not be enough for industry-leading revenues. Of course, Toyota's recent lithium investments and battery partnerships hint that such complacency is unlikely.
Moreover, Ford has started to sound a lot like Toyota on hybrid vehicles. By 2018 it's possible that Ford could actually begin to challenge Toyota's hybrid sale's crown, and Ford's lithium commitment appears set to begin in 2012, with lithium-powered conventional hybrids the key.
When the plug-in Prius goes on sale in late 2011, I expect lithium-powered conventional Prius hybrids won't be far behind. If not, maybe Toyota will need some kaizen lessons from Ford.
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles, lithium battery, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:42 AM
7 Comments:
My hope is that these battery wars help lead to lower priced "after market" batteries for today's generation of hybrids.
I am hopeful that 3rd party batteries will be available in the not-so-distant future that perform even better than today's batteries.....at a lower cost.
As the number of old hybrids on the road continues to increase, there will be a market for 3rd party replacement batteries for hybrids whose warranties have expired.
Hopefully Toyota can work all their kinks out and start putting good cars on the market again.
Patty-
According to JD Power and Consumer Reports, Toyota is still putting good cars on the market.
Smurf-
I'm with you. That's why I'd to see tax credits for lithium vehicles, especially full hybrids, and much less focus on plug-ins.
The technology for mass-marketable plug-ins is still going to take time to develop. Full hybrids, with tax credits, can resonate with many more consumers, plus they can have a huge impact now and become plug-ins later.
50,000 EVs is nice, but 500,000 hybrids that can be converted into plug-in hybrids down the road, offers much more bang for the back.
Likewise, a focus on lithium hybrids takes away much of Toyota's hybrid advantage and creates real competition to put lithium in as many vehicles as possible right now.
That could be just as good for Ford as Toyota.
So when I finally buy another car in 2013 or 2014, what do you think the chances are that, if I buy a 2-4 year old used hybrid, do you think I'll be able to replace the batteries, the electric motors and the brains with batteries, motors and brains that will afford better mileaage and do you think it will be cost effective?
Well the Hymotion plug-in conversion packages that are 'common' today are much simpler than the full replacement you are suggesting. If they continue to prove their safety and reliability, then plug-in conversions could be a very simple and relatively cost-effective option - relative to other plug-in hybrids.
And if analysts in the battery space are correct and there is a big battery glut in 2014, there might be deals to be had.
Of course, if demand is much higher than anticipated, then there won't be any deals any plug-ins, whether new or converted, but converted would still be cheaper.
Aintchoo all seen dat movie? In 2012, WE ALL GONNA DIE! Save me, John Cusack!
Or maybe 2012 is just a new age, as some have suggested is the real meaning of that Mayan prophecy.
Anyway, saw today that Honda will also unleash lithium in its hybrid cars in about 2 years. Likewise, GM has lithium plans for 2012.
of course, both Honda and GM will use lithium in their mild hybrid drives.
if toyota and ford add to their full hybrids, i think they dominate the hybrid competition.
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