The year America significantly reduces foreign oil dependence
When and why?Foreign oil dependence has become a pretty significant buzz phrase in the last decade, yet over the last ten years little decrease in foreign oil consumption has been achieved.
When will this change? What technology, resource or event will provide the impetus for a significant reduction - more than 50 percent - in foreign oil consumption?
More important, will America proactively embrace this change, or will America be forced to react to change caused by external events beyond America's control?
Labels: Foreign Oil Dependency
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:09 AM
15 Comments:
I'd bet we reduce our foreign oil dependence sooner than most think, but it will be because we have no choice and it will be, at least temporarily, very devastating to our economy.
I am assuming that you have studies that show that Americans want to reduce foreign oil dependence. We have to remember that foreign oil dependence means different things to different people. Many believe "drill baby drill" is the only way to foreign oil independence.
I get an e-mail from my father-in-law about every 3 months that states that we have more oil than Saudi Arabia. He actually believes it, even though I can prove that it originated from a spam e-mail to sell oil futures.
We will reduce our foreign oil dependence but it will be painful and we will have no choice.
Yes, there have been many studies showing American concerns over foreign oil dependence.
And your drill, drill, drill argument is very poignant because I've heard the same argument made by many, but like you, I don't believe drilling is a feasible way forward. Perhaps it can be a piece of the solution, but only a piece at best.
Like you, Zen Dude, and Anon, I also believe "it will be painful and we will have no choice."
I know exactly what year America will significantly reduce it's foreign oil dependence.
It's the exact same year that it becomes crystal clear that the oil is starting to run out....
oil comes from everywhere - it comes from Canada, Mexico, etc.
playing my usual contrarian role - what if China discovered a fundamental breakthrough in Solar Panels or a huge natural gas strike was found in Cuba or Brazil?
I don't think people think much about foreign oil dependence except when they get their "Don't Tread on Me" flags out to fly....
then it's back to business as usual....
we will not voluntarily reduce our consumption of foreign oil... as long as we can buy it and it sells for less than 5 bucks a gallon and as long as something other method of propelling cars does not come along and is cheaper than gasoline.
The Foreign Oil argument is very similar in some respects to the hard core enviros who believe that coal is more evil than foreign oil and must be done away with even if our electric bills triple...
so you asked.. and I offered an opinion.. now come back with an alternative view...
Larry is right...
There are a few folks like myself who lost family members in Iraq. There's a few more who worry about global warming or even pollution.
But the bulk of Americans don't really care about foreign oil dependence. They make their vehicle purchase decision based upon gas prices, plain and simple....
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What concerns me more is the delicate balance of oil demand vs. oil production......
Are we to expect a repeating pattern of dramatic oil price spikes, followed by global recession, followed by a dramatic drops in oil prices as demand falls off?
How long before the next spike? 1 year? 10 years?
Will 2008 repeat itself over and over until we finally get off of oil?
Is the global economy going to continue to be handcuffed by it's dependence on oil?
Nice article.
Hi!
DARPA (Defense Dept) just announced that they are a few months from commercially viable jet fuel. They are talking prices down to $1/gallon, using algea biofuel.
Can cheaper gasoline via algea than via oil be far behind???
cliff
Nairobi
cliff-
from what i've read, such as the recent Oxford study on the subject, algae-biofuel is nowhere close to being able to replace petroleum-based fuels in the automotive sector without significant technological breakthroughs that might never happen.
certainly, there is potential, but its still a longer term long shot from what i've read.
larry - i don't have an alternative view. i pretty much agree verbatim with you. i've also said in the past that only $5.00 gas will begin to result in real change.
unfortunately, i believe america will significantly reduce foreign oil dependence only when there is no other option.
nonetheless, i find it very amazing that companies like GM (and I bet most automakers have the same forecasts) are forecasting serious gas crunches - more serious than 2008 - in the very near future, yet i don't see how their product plans will have them prepared for such a gas crunch.
this just seems to be a problem that no one really wants to address via real actions and preparations. why? do they not really trust the forecasts? do think the recession is going to get worse before it gets better? is addressing this issue simply impossible without losing money?
the automobile companies are all forced into short-term returns on investment because of the competitive environment.
I keep hearing the algae stuff and switchgrass that will generate what...300 gallons per acre?
maybe... not holding my breath..
I'm reading a blog called the Trans World Expedition...
it's a crazy story about a New York guy buying a Toyota Landcruiser (with 92K on it) and driving through South America then boating across to Africa then north to India, etc, etc,
http://transworldexpedition.com/?page_id=247
but the point is .. since he has hit Central America and now Peru... he has had little trouble finding gasoline - even 94 octane gasoline even in the poorest villages...
so.. what does that tell you in terms of availability and world oil supplies?
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i'm not sure, but its an interesting point.
still, its all about supply and demand coupled with refinery capabilities. that's where the issue gets really sticky.
I'm just amazed that even 3rd world countries have no trouble getting oil and refining it to gasoline... and.. according to this guy ...selling it for less than we do - sometimes a LOT less.
It is an interesting point, but id bet it still boils down to supply and demand. And today, supply is greater than demand.
Also, how clean is the gasoline. More important, how clean are the refineries?
oh I'm sure they are not "clean". The cities down that way that have heavy auto traffic are abysmal.
but I'm pointing out that those countries are not about to do away with their "dependence of foreign oil".
That concept is pretty much only American.
Peru does not consider itself held hostage to the bad actors in the Middle East.
Why do we?
Why is our whole national collective hand-wringing along such lines?
Why do we fret about Peak Oil and these other countries do not?
I'm not dismissing it - only pointing out that most other countries are in the same boat and just don't see the problem the same way we do.
And probably no market at all for hybrids there - no?
Had a friend come back from India.
Paid for a tour. He and six others got in the tour vehicle - a Yarus station wagon type critter with a 3rd seat...
15 days in that vehicle.
that's how other countries deal with fuel efficiency.. right?
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