What if you can't afford a Chevy Volt?
A fantastic car for 5 percent of car consumers?In recent months I've been criticized many times for being too critical of US automakers. Ironically, a year ago or so, I was criticized many times for being too supportive of the Chevy Volt.
So, what's my deal?
Ultimately, I became interested in hybrid cars after 9/11 because I decided that America's foreign oil dependence was beginning to cause far more harm than good for America and the world. Thus, hybrid cars presented a great way to take immediate action today, while investing in the potential of fuel cell vehicles and all other battery-powered vehicles for tomorrow.
For this reason, I was very supportive of the Chevy Volt at first. Yet, as time has passed from the debut of the Volt, I've realized that the Volt has almost become a distraction to my cause.
Finish reading: What if you can't afford a Chevy Volt. Thinking about foreign oil dependence
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, Foreign Oil Dependency, Hybrid Vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
12:20 PM
7 Comments:
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In recent months I've been criticized many times for being too critical of US automakers. Ironically, a year ago or so, I was criticized many times for being too supportive of the Chevy Volt.
So, what's my deal?
Ultimately, I became interested in hybrid cars after 9/11 because I decided that America's foreign oil dependence was beginning to cause far more harm than good for America and the world. Thus, hybrid cars presented a great way to take immediate action today, while investing in the potential of fuel cell vehicles and all other battery-powered vehicles for tomorrow.
For this reason, I was very supportive of the Chevy Volt at first. Yet, as time has passed from the debut of the Volt, I've realized that the Volt has almost become a distraction to my cause.
Don't get me wrong. I believe the Volt will be an exciting vehicle, a worthy vehicle. But as Bob Lutz, the founder of the Volt has repeated many times, such a vehicle will only appeal to 5 percent of the population because of upfront costs. So, in the next decade or two, how significant can the Volt really become?
That doesn't mean the Volt is a waste of time, it simply means America needs much more than the Volt if we are serious about ending foreign oil dependence as quickly, and cleanly, as possible.
Sure, over time, such technologies will become more cost-effective for more American auto consumers. Yet, according to almost every expert, analyst and academic study, it's going to take decades, minimally, for such vehicles to become cost-effective and to have any impact on foreign oil dependence.
Consequently, according to the experts, the current American automotive path guarantees several more decades of foreign oil dependence.
Yet, much more than 5 percent of the population is interested in vehicles like the Volt. In fact, according to a plethora of studies, a far majority of Americans are interested in hybrid and EV technologies as a way to fight foreign oil dependence - but only if these solutions don't cost much more than a conventional vehicle.
Thus, I've been very supportive of Toyota's plans to be 30 percent hybrid by 2020, as it suggests cheaper hybrid costs are coming soon. Furthermore, every one of Toyota's hybrids is a great candidate for plug-in conversion as battery technologies mature. That means the legacy effects of these hybrid vehicles can be turned into a positive, versus the negative legacy effects of conventional gas guzzlers upon foreign oil dependency.
Hence, in the short term, hybrids such as the Toyota Prius, might be far more important than range extended EVs, such as the Volt. In the next decade, it will be far easier to sell many more Prius hybrids; and, if the battery technologies powering the Volt and other EVs mature enough, it will be simple and cost-effective to turn these hybrids into plug-in vehicles.
Forget cash for clunkers. Think cash for plug-in conversions.
Sadly, however, even if every automaker were 30 percent hybrid by 2020 and they were producing as many Volt-like EVs, etc. as possible, America would still be terribly dependent upon foreign oil for a long time thereafter. Nonetheless, such a plan would be far superior to where America is heading today, yet America isn't even close to such a path.
Inevitably, despite the upcoming launch of the Chevy Volt, as well as Toyota's plans to be 30 percent hybrid by 2020, America is still on the slow train to foreign oil independence. Can this track really be the way to future American greatness?
First of all, I enjoy reading your commentary and believe you are providing a great dialogue on an important topic.
I also believe that the America needs to reduce its dependence on foreign oil and at the same time create les impact on the environment.
I believe the answer to the hybrid and plug-in debate is that we need both. The hybrid provides an excellent near term solution to accomplish both goals. While the plug-in is a longer term strategy that can provide a potential for some people to approach a near zero gasoline use state.
Both hybrid and plug-in technology will help drive new battery technology that is the critical technology needed to advance both goals.
Regarding the Volt specifically, I believe it is one of the beginnings of the approach to plug in technology. Emerging technologies generally consist of many different bets being placed with different types of solutions to increase the odds of success. There are so many unknowns that multiple bets is the best approach.
Is the Volt a distraction? It may be a slight distraction but it has also been able to bring attention to an area that most people do not understand. Think about the general public that are non technical or have a passing interest in hybrids and plug in solutions. It will take time to bring these concepts to them and convince them to follow a different path for their transportation needs. This is a cultural change and cultural changes take time and many different approaches.
No I do not work for GM, nor any portion of the auto industry. I am an engineer and an Independent sometime Republican. I voted for Obama this past election. I look forward to an affordable vehicle that will be electrically powered. I believe someone will release an economical plug in that will allow between 15 and 20 miles of driving and it will be a huge success. It might be a variant of the Prius, the Ford Focus or the Volt.
Thanks for the dialogue..... Charlie
Dahc - I don't think you need a pep talk, but just in case - Your blog is a great forum for folks to contribute their views and consider others on this very important subject.
I like Anon's comment about the reality of needing "different bets being placed with different types of solutions to increase the odds of success"
What will speed our Nation's move to true energy independence is to ensure governmental policies, regulations, and funding mechanisms that promote diversity and change with regards to new technologies and providers of such technologies (i.e. ""different bets being placed with different types of solutions") are established and maintained.
With regards to the Volt - as an engineer and business development manager, what I really like about it is the series hybrid architecture. This approach eliminates the "range anxiety" that most consumers will have for quite some time, but it also allows Chevrolet (or whatever other auto maker adopts it) to make incremental improvements to the engine, the battery pack, or the electric motor. So in future iterations of the Volt, you might have an E85 or biodiesel fueled engine, or maybe the 2015 Volt will come out with a second generation lithium battery pack that increases energy storage density and/or price.
So keep up the good work Dahc!
I would love to see a plugin conversion for my Toyota Highlander. Companies seem only interested in the Prius :(
Ed Whitacre, GM CEO, now says the Volt will retail in the low 30's and still be profitable. Ergo, with the 7500 dollar Fed tax rebate, the car's MSRP will be roughly $25,000.
I am willing to bet this price tag opens the Volt up to much more than 5% of the populace.
Indeed, at that price, I will be picking one up myself next year...
Dahc,
Chin up...
Try to separate American foreign oil dependence from the oil dependence of individual Americans.
The Volt won't make America foreign oil independent, but it may free a few individual Americans from using foreign oil. In that aspect it is a good vehicle.
I take great personal satifaction in having reduced my own foreign oil consumption by more than 50%. I'm sure there are a few future Volt purchasers who feel the same way....
Thanks for some great comments!
Believe me, sometimes I know I'm far too cynical, too angry, too discontented. Nonetheless, my goal is always focused on pushing the bar further on energy independence.
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I hope you are right, enigmatic. Unfortunately, I'd bet there is some sort of catch. Either he's forecasting long term, or he's affirming that GM will significantly subsidize the Volt's costs.
Still, I'm going to just hope that Whitacre's statments can be taken at face value.
Nonetheless, I'd still argue that GM needs a conventional Prius fighter.
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