BCG Study: What it will take for plug-in cost-effectiveness
19 years to recoup Volt costs?Today, the Boston Consulting Group released a study on plug-in vehicles that suggests, as have many studies recently, that plug-in adoption will by stymied by cost-ineffectiveness for some time.
To achieve critical mass, BCG cites the $250 kwh threshold that automakers claim will be required to make plug-in vehicles cost-effective. Unfortunately, the study finds that without a major breakthrough in lithium chemistry, such a threshold will be impossible to achieve. Currently, according to BCG, such a breakthrough is not on the horizon.
Therefore, while battery costs could decrease by as much as 65 percent by 2020, that would only take battery costs to $400 per kwh.
Without a major battery breakthrough, or a run on oil that pushes costs from $100 per barrel to $375 per barrel, BCG suggests either making the $7500 plug-in tax credit permanent, or increasing the gas tax by 210 percent as ways to make plug-ins cost-competitive.
Labels: plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
9:07 AM
6 Comments:
Study was probably funded by Chevron.
If NiMH would have been allowed to be used in EV applications, the cost per kWH could have easily been $250.....sure it is heavier than lithium, but it is also proven. An 8 to 10 kWh pack in a Chevy Volt would not weigh much more than the 16 kWh lithium one.
We have been bamboozled into believing that Lithium is the only hope for EV's and PHEV's and this mentality will probably insure that electric cars will not catch on.
every new technology needs time to get better and better. the engineers will develop more efficient electric cars and i think the study is about the current developed electric cars.
According to the article/report by BCG only ONE OF THE FOLLOWING must occur [or some combination].
• There is a chemistry breakthrough that keeps material costs the same while creating a battery that can store twice as much energy, reducing the cost from $400 per kW/hr to $215.
I see big steps being made in this area almost every day. Even Firefly's foam lead acid 3D battery would have given the EV-1 a 100% longer range.
• A new $7,700 government incentive is offered.
Might happen.
• Owners triple the number of miles they drive annually so the extra cost pays for itself.
Not very likely.
• Oil prices increase from $100 a barrel to $375 a barrel.
Increase to $200.00 might not be that far away [100% increase].
• A 210 percent incremental gasoline tax is implemented.
A 100% increase from 18.4 cents to 36.8 is not impossible if Cap and Trade passes.
That's my opinion - what's yours?
tomgarven - Agree with your overall assessment. A move on more than one of the listed "must happen items" in the right direction is very likely. I see battery prices coming down, gas prices going up, and the government continuing to offer incentives and/or subsidies. All is good as we go into 2010.
The report, which was based on a global survey of executives that BCG, in partnership with BusinessWeek, conducted earlier this year, addresses a number of the most important topics associated with effective that is, profitable innovation, including the establishment of meaningful objectives and the development of "best practice" tactics and capabilities.
BCG says currently prices are between $1,000 and $1,200 per kwh. To put that in perspective a compact or midsize car might use a quarter of a kwh per mile. So at current prices a 100 mile range will require 25 kwh or at least $25,000. The cost is worse than that since batteries are not typically allowed to run all the way down.
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