10 percent green equals 100 percent greenwashed
A meaningless hybrid?If you're at the Detroit Auto Show, or following the coverage, you might think the automotive world has really changed. All our troubles are behind and new green vehicles, particularly hybrids and plug-in vehicles, are set to make everything better.
Yet, in ten years less than 10 percent of America's automotive fleet will be hybrid or plug-in - at best - according to almost every automotive analyst and researcher.
Anyway, this year in Detroit the Ford Fusion hybrid was awarded The North American Car of the Year. And it's deserving. Everything about the Fusion hybrid is great, except for sales. Sure, almost 30,000 Ford consumers bought a Fusion hybrid last year, however, over 400,000 Ford consumers bought a gas-guzzling Ford F150.
And next year in Detroit, the Chevy Volt will probably win The North American Car of the Year. Yet, the Volt will probably move even less units than did the Fusion hybrid in its first year. Even more alarming, by 2020, according to GM executives like Bob Lutz, plug-ins like the Volt will still only appeal to about 5 - 10 percent of consumers.
Today, even hybrid king Toyota only offers the third most fuel efficient fleet in America - despite selling 200,000 hybrids - thanks to its many gas-guzzler sales.
Sadly, in tens years the US auto fleet won't be much more fuel efficient than it is today, and green vehicles will still be just a niche, but at least we'll get to enjoy a decade of superb greenwashing along the way.
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, Ford fusion hybrid, Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:07 AM
9 Comments:
Here's Lutz on the subject today at the Detroit Auto Show:
"Despite everything you read in the press and see on television, there's only 5 percent of the people that are really interested in hybrids or who are interested in paying a lot of extra money to have better fuel consumption," he said.
"It's an important 5 percent, but it's still only 5 percent."
For the record, Lutz's statement was made in response to questions about plug-in hybrids and their sale's potential.
As one of the 5 percent, the most important thing for me is that the automakers actually build the kinds of cars that we want to drive.
Since the 1970's I've been reading about green cars of the future that run on electricity & hydrogen. Finally, after 30 years, we are close to seeing these cars become a reality.
I don't know about the other 95% of the country, but I know that I will eventually drive a vehicle that uses zero gallons of foreign oil...
and, yet, what will have really changed?
if GM can sell 100,000 Volts per year, they'll probably receive massive CAFE credits for millions of gas-guzzlers, in addition to massive federal and state loans, grants, and low interest loans (not to mention the $7500 consumer tax credit).
but what will really have been accomplished?
What will have changed is that we will have a "choice".....
In 1979 and 2008, we had no choice. It was gasoline or gasoline.
Give Americans a choice, and things might be different next time....
That is choice, but not much choice.
If automakers have to appease only this 5 percent, then they don't really have to change any time soon. And based on those numbers and current research into lithium battery production and manufacturing, the scalability prospects for today's lithium technologies are marginal.
That means very little choice for most Americans for at least a decade, probably two.
Inevitably, the path that America is now on all but guarantees several more decades of foreign oil dependency.
Is that really in America's best interests?
Of course, if we're lucky, BYD will be able to sell a Volt copy for half the price as GM by 2015, or at least a $14,000 60 mpg hybrid, and all this worry will be for naught!
I can't disagree with you on America's path for the next few decades.
Without a doubt this is an uphill battle.
I think the best we can do is adopt an "it starts with me" philosophy. If we purchase these vehicles and show them off on the road, maybe a few others will as well.
With luck, maybe we can rub off on a few people. If we can turn that 5% into a 10%, maybe it will snowball after that.....
It has to start somwhere.....
I agree. We HAVE to do that. Right now that's the best option we have.
Nonetheless, I worry that in 15 years or so, we'll look back and wonder why more wasn't done in the past as we head into some other conflict created by our foreign oil dependence.
I hope I'm wrong, but if you look back upon the last few decades.....
Dahc,
Looking at the history of the last 30 years I have to agree.
Despite our efforts and those of our governments, I fear that the only thing that can push the migration to alternative fuels will be the oil actually running out....
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