Prius: Biggest rare metal guzzler

Soon to face a rare metal shortage?

By next year, the Prius hybrid car could help Toyota sell 1 million hybrid cars per year, if there are enough rare metals available for such an output.

According to reports, the supplies of rare metals needed for the electric motors and batteries of hybrids is beginning to tighten. And, eventually, China - the biggest supplier of such metals - is going to reduce its exports. Fortunately, however, new mines in Canada and the US are set to open.

Does your dealership / service department understand hybrids?

How have you dealt with your hybrid problems?

Most hybrid owners are pretty happy with their hybrid vehicles. 90-some percent of Toyota Prius owners, for instance, would buy another Prius.

Still, there are consumers that are unhappy with the performance, usually fuel economy, of their hybrids. Sometimes these hybrid problems are bugs. Sometimes these hybrid problems are based on a misunderstanding of hybrid technology.

For instance, many hybrid drivers will start a cold hybrid and baby it a on a few mile trip and wonder why the fuel economy isn't better. In such conditions, I use more aggressive acceleration followed by coasting until the engine warms. While such a tactic seems counter-intuitive, it does lead to better short trip fuel economy.

Yet, many dealers - from the complaints I've read - never seem to discuss such tactics.

Does your dealership and service department fully understand hybrid technology?

Most Americans just don't want small cars

If only the F150 were a hybrid

Provide a lot of incentives for consumers to buy small and efficient cars and some will take advantage. Interest also rises with gas prices. No duh, right?

Nonetheless, Americans don't really want these vehicles according to BusinessWeek.

Instead, they want vehicles like the Ford F150, a vehicle that saw its first year on year increase in sales since 2006 according to recent data. In fact, Ford is lifting production on these vehicles, despite the horrific 15 - 17 mpg fuel economy of these pickup trucks.

Sure the Toyota Prius has been a hit and the plethora of plug-in vehicles on the horizon sound compelling, but what about solutions for the majority of Americans that want vehicles like the F150?

Have you experienced Prius markups?

Mark ups on the Prius, again?

There are some minor reports of a few Toyota dealers adding markups to the Toyota Prius. Fortunately, the markups are nothing like last year when dealers would as much as $5,000 or more to the price of the Prius simply because they could.

Earlier this year, several Toyota dealers told me that such a practice would not happen with the third generation Prius at the request of Toyota corporate. However, it seems as if a few dealers are not following protocol.

Have you experienced Toyota Prius markups at your local dealership?

Would natural gas cars make sense?

A rough look at pricing

Today, buying hybrid cars only makes sense if you think long term, and not even then in some cases. Inevitably, achieving even 10 percent hybrid market share will require far better cost-effectiveness.

So, what about natural gas vehicles?

My local Honda dealership is selling Civic GX natural gas vehicles for $25,388, while a Civic hybrid lists for $23,650.

Thus, those additional upfront costs would require much cheaper natural gas versus gasoline prices, which might be possible. Once the Rocky Mountain natural gas pipeline is fully functional - within a year - natural gas prices throughout the nation could see a significant drop. Still, might not demand eventually catch up to supplies and push prices higher?

On the other hand, economies of scale would seem to suggest that if automakers sold as many natural gas vehicles as hybrid vehicles, natural gas vehicle components would drop in price; therefore, natural gas vehicle pricing would also decline. Nonetheless, a natural gas vehicle would never be as cheap as conventional vehicle, but maybe hybrids.

What do you think? Could natural gas cars make sense?

2 door, sporty Toyota Prius on the way

Toyota must challenge the CR-Z hybrid

Sometimes when you sit atop the world, it's quite easy to become complacent. Well, when it comes to Toyota's hybrid kingdom, there certainly has been no complacency.

Not long ago there were rumors that the 2010 Third Generation Toyota Prius was going to cost more than the eventual sticker price. However, Toyota didn't want pricing to be too high, as it might provide a competitive advantage for Honda's Insight hybrid. Thus, Toyota reacted with new pricing and a new base model.

Likewise, now that Honda is preparing to roll out the hot looking CR-Z sports hybrid, AutoWeek is reporting that Toyota is developing a 2-door sporty hybrid, based upon the third generation Prius, to compete with Honda's next hybrid.

Also, according to the reports, the new design of the 2-door Prius will be developed by an Italian design studio. That could mean a vehicle that not only breaks out of the Prius design mold, but the design box of Toyota altogether. Than alone could be exciting.

Cash for clunker's shocking reality

Legacy costs

Cash for Clunkers is over. After $2.88 billion we've removed 690,117 fuel inefficient clunkers from society while providing a quick bump to a down and out auto industry.

Good news, right?

Regardless, according to CNN, those 700,000 clunkers represent just "2% of the approximately 42 million fuel hoggers still clunking along." So, we have a long way to go, but at least 700,000 15 mpg vehicles were replaced, on average, with 25 mpg vehicles.

Unfortunately, if by some magic wand Cash for Clunkers could have worked for ALL clunkers, even at 25 mpg across the entire US fleet, America would still be terribly dependent upon foreign oil.

Clunker hangover good for Prius buyers?

Time to go shopping soon

If you've been out shopping for a Toyota Prius recently, you might have noticed that supplies are thin, or that haggling for a better price was a wasted effort.

Now that Cash for Clunkers is over, however, traffic in dealer showrooms should wind down significantly. And, since many Clunker drivers traded in for Prius hybrids, demand for for the king of hybrid cars should also decline.

Nonetheless, if Toyota cannot secure more batteries to meet production capabilities soon, Prius supply issues could become far worse, not better.

Freedom: Guzzling funds Taliban

War on drugs? Why not a war on oil?

According to Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Taliban funding from Persian Gulf oil money outpaces funding from opium and heroin exports.

Good thing we'll only be dependent upon Persian Gulf oil for another 50 years, otherwise I might be a little worried.

Guzzle in peace! May Allah be with you.

Smart: And hybrids are expensive?

Is it really that cute?

Are hybrid cars cost-effective? That depends, but compared to the new Smart ForTwo Highstyle, I'd say hybrids like the Toyota Prius are a fantastic deal.

According to reports, the ForTwo Highstyle will begin at $22,461 for the 71-hp version.

I guess at that cost, a hybrid version is out of the question.

Is a Yaris hybrid a Prius-killer?

An instant top selling hybrid?

By 2011, if the rumors are correct, Toyota will launch a Yaris-like hybrid that might sell for as low as $15,650 and achieve as much as 70 mpg in the city.

On the other hand, VW is preparing to offer a 2 door Golf TDI in the US for $21,990. The standard, and much less efficient, Golf will cost $17,490.

So, a Yaris-based hybrid could be in a league of its own, especially if Toyota can come up with a hot new design rather than just a rebadged Yaris.

Would such a hybrid achieve most of its success by stealing Prius buyers, or would a Yaris-hybrid appeal to a whole new consumer segment?

Help: Best and worst tires for hybrid cars

Cooper Lifeliner SLE - The best tire for Prius hybrid cars?

There is nothing worse than buying a hybrid car to save money on fuel only to have to use that savings to buy new tires many hybrid buyers have complained.

Unfortunately, many hybrid cars were outfitted with low resistance tires that simply haven't performed well. In the post Toyota Prius hybrid and unusual tire wear, Prius owners have provided a number of tips for buying and maintaining tires.

Inevitably, however, it just seems that many of the Goodyear and Michelin tires that have rolled out with many hybrids simply aren't up to the task. Certainly, there might also be weight and alignment issues, but substandard tires appear to be a primary problem.

Nonetheless, some Prius owners have had great results with Cooper Lifeliner SLEs and there is a lot of hype around the Bridgestone Ecopia EP100, a low resistance tire largely designed for hybrid vehicles.

What are your favorite hybrid tires?

What's wrong with tax credits for hybrid cars?

You're no plug-in, Ford hybrid

Today, Toyota is facing a battery shortage for its hybrid cars. By next year, however, Toyota might have enough batteries to produce 1 million hybrids per year.

Aside from Honda, no other automaker will produce even 100,000 hybrid vehicles per year until lithium is developed. Even then, many automakers might skip hybrids, instead preferring to put their lithium technology into limited production plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

However, if Toyota swapped its NiMH batteries for Enerdel's lithium batteries, for instance, it could produce either 100,000 electric vehicles or one million Prius hybrids. And, without question, 1,000,000 Prius hybrids would have a significantly greater effect on both foreign oil dependency and global warming.

Considering that plug-in vehicles could be 3 decades or more from achieving at least 20 percent marketshare, why is America's lithium focus only upon plug-in vehicles?

Without question, tax credits for plug-in vehicles are a worthy expenditure. Still, why only plug-ins? Why not put lithium into as many vehicles as possible?

Ultimately, wouldn't lithium hybrids lead to a much quicker and dramatic effect on America's foreign oil dependency and carbon footprint? Shouldn't that be the driver of any battery-powered tax credit?

Natural gas: Another crown for Japan?

Another sign of Toyota's forward-thinking?

I've been casually following the natural gas story since Boone Pickens made this issue his cause. At first, I was extremely skeptical and critical of the idea. Sure there might be a few hundred years worth of natural gas in America, but mining natural gas out of shale and creating an infrastructure would certainly outweigh any benefits I figured.

But, the truth is, I was only making assumptions then. Even as I've become more open-mined to natural gas, I still know very little about the viability of natural gas as a transportation fuel.

Yet, I watch a lot of financial news, and natural gas as a transportation fuel is becoming an increasingly common subject. Long term investors are beginning to build positions. Perhaps its just the fact the Congress appears to be warming to natural gas, and legislation - including huge tax breaks - now seems inevitable, but the money is starting to move towards natural gas.

In recent years, Honda has tried to make a run at natural gas, building not just cars, but home fueling stations. In fact, Honda's long term plans include adding a fuel cell and a reformer to these home fueling stations, but that's another topic.

And, late last year, Toyota rolled out a natural gas Camry hybrid.

If natural gas does become a viable transportation fuel due to Congressional action, is this just another area that US automakers will be chasing the leaders?

No "real breakthrough" in plug-ins yet

Plug-in space still wide open

The other day Germany announced its plans to put 1 million plug-in vehicles on the road by 2020. While critics have claimed the program is lacking in details and funding, it's no surprise Germany would implement such a goal considering the importance of the auto industry on the German economy and psyche.

Nonetheless, Germany has been a bit of a laggard on hybrid and electric vehicle technology. Yet, German officials are not worried about whether they can catch up to the rest of the auto industry.

According to Transport Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee even Japan hasn't yet achieved a "real breakthrough" in plug-in technology.

Foreign oil dependence on TheStreet

Should plug-ins be the only path to foreign oil dependence?

TheStreet.com asked me to be a guest contributor recently, so they published Foreign Oil Versus the GM Volt this morning (although I didn't pick the title).

Ultimately, I've become very critical of the Chevy Volt compared to a year ago, when I was a fairly strong advocate. While I agree that it's important to bring this technology to market, such vehicles are decades away from making a major impact on America's energy paradigm.

More important, while GM can hype the petroleum-free driving of the Volt, such hype can't hide the fact that the Volt will be a limited production vehicle for most of the next decade and it won't be cost-effective and profitable until well into the 2020s. Thus, it will be 30 to 40 years before such plug-ins can provide a dramatic impact on ending foreign oil dependence.

So, I can't help but ask, how many more decades before foreign oil dependence leads to another bin Laden, another 9/11, another major gas spike?

Ultimately, the Volt isn't the source of my angst, my focus is purely on foreign oil dependence. Unfortunately, as the Volt moves closer to reality, it has become a tool for illustrating just how far away America is from tackling foreign oil dependence.

Vue / Buick plug-in hybrid killed again?

Vue plug-in hybrid killed twice

Earlier this year I was invited to test drive the dual mode Saturn Vue hybrid, and I was excited. This was the first GM full hybrid that I could at least consider buying. Moreover, the Vue hybrid was destined to become a plug-in hybrid.

Then GM killed the test drive, then the launch of Vue hybrid, and, finally, Saturn altogether.

However, GM recently announced that the Vue hybrid, at least the plug-in version, would live as a new Buick crossover.

Apparently, according to the latest reports, GM has decided to kill this vehicle to due feedback from GM customers.

Will Toyota need lithium faster than planned?

Running out of NiMH batteries

Toyota is running out of batteries. Consequently, in Japan, the wait for a new Toyota Prius can be as much as 8 months. According to Toyota, Panasonic EV just can't keep up with demand, although plans are in place to increase production to 1,000,000 units per year by next year.

In the interim, however, Toyota is investigating the possibility of using batteries from other battery manufacturers. Moreover, according to reports, Toyota has already procured 10,000 lithium-ion batteries from Sanyo for use in 2011.

Of course, that procurement is probably for plug-in versions of the Toyota Prius. Nonetheless, might not Toyota need to consider putting lithium into some of its conventional hybrid cars as soon as possible? Why not put lithium into all Lexus hybrids, for instance?

Energy independence: Tax credits for the Volt forever?

What's the Volt worth to America?

What's a better deal, the Chevy Volt or the Toyota Prius?

The Prius, by a long shot according to analysis by CNNMoney. Even if a Volt driver were to use only electricity to power the Volt and gas were to hit $5.00, the Prius is a still a better deal, even after the government's $7500 tax credit for the Volt.

Of course, in the real world, most Volt drivers will use gasoline, as range will easily fall under 30 miles for many drivers. In fact, aggressive Volt drivers might only achieve 10 miles of electric range according to some battery experts. For such drivers, the Volt would become terribly cost-ineffective.

Then again, the Prius isn't always the most cost-effective option for those seeking to buy a small car and save money on gas CNN points out. Yet, the Prius has still become a pretty big hit.

So, the Volt will probably be a hit as well, at least initially, but what happens after the tax credits for the Volt expire, and early adopters have filled their new technology fix?

Moreover, if the Prius and similar hybrid cars are only able to achieve just a few percent of market share, how are even less-cost effective plug-in vehicles supposed to significantly increase this share?

Is America on a real on a path to energy independence?

Prius top 5 Clunker purchase

No production limitations?

The latest results on the Cash for Clunkers program are in and the Toyota Prius continues to move well. Currently, the Prius is the 5th most purchased vehicle under the program.

Only one vehicle made by the Big 3, the Ford Escape, made the top 10 list. According to GM, its Cobalt fell off the list due to production issues.

With a battery shortage inhibiting Prius production, it seems inevitable that a bottleneck in Prius supplies is inevitable.

Fuel economy: Is it meaningless?

Is it all about good karma?

Why do people care about fuel economy?

I can largely only think of three things: bragging, altruism, and cost of ownership. And most seem to be driven only by the later and only during gas price spikes.

In recent years, it's become more of a factor, but not that much of a factor.

Ratings systems are a hot topic these days, with plug-in vehicles coming on line. Can fuel economy be fairly rated as more fuels are added to the mix?

Yet, I wonder, do these rating systems even matter?

Why not just average total cost of ownership if that's what drives consumers?

Toyota's new Lexus hybrid?

The CT hybrid?

Lexus has released this interesting sketch of what could potentially be its next hybrid vehicle, the CT.

Thus far, Toyota has patented the names CT200h, CT300h, and CT400h, so it seems clear a hybrid version of the CT is inevitable. Other reports have suggested the CT will be a hybrid-only vehicle. Details should be finalized by the Frankfurt Motor Show.

Suzuki Kizashi hybrid to hit US in 2011

Based on GM hybrid technology

Suzuki will bring the Kizashi hybrid to North America in 2011, according to reports. The new Suzuki hybrid will be built on a "next generation" hybrid system developed with GM, which probably means that the Kizashi will utilize GM's upgraded BAS hybrid drive.

A non-hybrid version of the Kizashi is still on track to hit the US, the this year.

New Toyota hybrid under $16,000?

Will cheap, small compact hybrids be a hit?

Rumors coming out of Japan indicate that Toyota could roll out a new $15,650 hybrid that achieves 94 mpg. Unfortunately, that 94 mpg is probably based on Japanese fuel economy estimates which are derived from a methodology that is entirely different than that used in the US. So, this new Toyota hybrid is probably a good bit more fuel efficient than the Prius, but certainly well below 94 mpg.

Still, $15,650. Now that seems like a car almost any American new car shopper can afford.

Obviously, such a hybrid would be smaller than the Prius, however, could such a hybrid - based solely on its sticker price - challenge the Prius for the king of hybrid cars sale's crown?

GM using Volt mileage to sell other vehicles

A good reason to buy a Chevy Equinox?

The Chevy Volt is still more than a year from hitting dealer showrooms, yet GM is already using the Volt to sell other GM vehicles.

This morning on the Cars.com website, I saw a new GM 230 ad, where the zero of the 230 is a plug-in socket, which then morphs into an ad for a 30 mpg Chevy Equinox.

Is that what petroleum-free driving is all about? Someday we're [GM] going to sell a limited production 230 mpg Volt, so go out and buy a 30 mpg Equinox today?

Is that really what the Volt is about?

Cheap and fuel efficient: Don't think hybrid

Think small, light and foreign according to Forbes

Looking for a cheap car?

Well, think small and foreign, but don't think hybrid writes Forbes magazine. While hybrid cars offer greater fuel efficiency than compacts, they are packaged with more options increasing their costs while making them more expensive to maintain and to insure notes Forbes.

Of course, if your vehicle offers more options, one would expect to pay more, so this is kind of a 'no duh' sort of article, especially considering that Toyota Prius, for instance, is a good bit larger than a Toyota Yaris. Nonetheless, it does beg the question, will there ever be a stripped down hybrid? Is such a vehicle capable of achieving cost-effectiveness for manufacturers?

Prius and Insight: Top safety picks

Small and safe

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has awarded both the new Toyota Prius and the Honda Insight Top Safety Pick Awards.

Small, safe and fuel efficient. Do you really need that huge guzzler to feel safe?

Fuel efficiency: Is the government hiding clunker data?

It's not all small cars

According to the government, the Cash for Clunker program is moving people out of fuel inefficient clunkers into vehicles averaging 25 mpg. I guess the keyword is average.

While the government hasn't released its data on the Clunker program, it has offered a Top 10 list that highlights small cars and a few hybrid vehicles.

However, Edmunds has compiled different data, and it shows lots of trucks, luxury vehicles and SUVs are also selling. For instance, Beny Ledesma, general sales manager at Williamson Cadillac-Hummer in Miami, has already sold 3 Cadillac SRXs and is finishing paper work on two more thanks the Clunker bill. Ledesma hopes to sell another 14 SRXs along with some Hummers. Both vehicles average 18 mpg.

For weeks now the AP and groups like Public Citizen have requested all the government's data on the program, so far the government has not complied.

Lutz on Fast Money: Dodging questions on Volt viability?

The Vice Chairman at his best

Last night Melissa Lee of Fast Money asked Bob Lutz how many units of the Chevy Volt GM expected to sell. Instead of answering, Lutz switched the conversation to how much better the Volt is than the competition. Fine. Maybe it is on a technological level.

Lee then followed up by asking when consumers can expect to reap the benefits of the Volt. After a $7500 tax credit, Lutz claimed at $32,500 the Volt wasn't too much more expensive than Toyota Prius. Still, he never explained how long it would take the Volt to recover its additional expense compared to a Prius or a similarly sized conventional vehicle.

Yet, what happens when tax credits run out? Moreover, recently it was reported that even at $40,000, GM is still losing money on every Volt sold, as the first Volts will be sold below cost. On top of that, GM eventually - someday - needs to start recovering the $1 billion plus spent on production costs.

Thus, tax payers - now owing 60 percent of GM - are selling the Volt at a loss, at a time that the Volt program is already $1 billion+ in debt, and taxpayers are also going to provide a $7500 tax credit to help sell a vehicle that can't help GM's bottom line for at least a decade?

And, not too much more expensive than the Prius?

I don't know. $10,000 + a $7500 tax credit sounds a little expensive to me, especially considering that the Toyota Prius is already a tough sell for the far majority of Americans. Most Americans want an even faster payback, an even cheaper clean and green option.

And, while I agree with Lutz's sentiments about petroleum-free driving, without enticing a majority of Americans, EVs will have no effect foreign oil dependency even if they achieve 1,000,000 mpg.

In 10 or 15 years, the Volt might have a chance of becoming a profitable, top-selling vehicle in America. In the interim, competitors will be developing a plethora of Volt competitors. Yet, none of them mean anything until millions of reliable and cost-effective battery packs can be produced per year.

Until then - even as early as next year - Toyota could be selling 1 million hybrid cars+ per year.

So which car, the Prius or the Volt, will offer the greatest reduction in petroleum over the next decade?

Is the Volt a Leaf over the Toyota Prius?

Leaf to get 367 mpg!?

So, which vehicle is better: the Chevy Volt, the Nissan Leaf or the Toyota Prius?

Not long after GM announced that the Volt might achieve 230 mpg in the city, Nissan announced that its Leaf electric vehicle would achieve 367 mpg in the city. So, obviously, the Leaf is the best, followed by the Volt, then the Prius, right?

If 80 percent of US drivers only drive 40 miles or less per day, then the Leaf, with its cheaper upfront costs, seems the clear winner. However, 100 miles of EV range might only mean 80 or 60 miles in the real world. Can you feel that range anxiety kicking in? What if you live in a condo or an apartment, or you have to park on the street?

Then the Volt can you take you further, for a cost, but it's a pretty big cost, or is it?

While Nissan is hoping to price the Leaf at $25,000 to $30,000, the Leaf is also reported to require a battery lease. How much will the lease cost? Even at $50 a month for 10 years, Leaf battery costs could more than pay for a lifetime's worth of fuel for the Prius, and you're still left with those nasty anxiety attacks.

Of course, the Leaf will reduce foreign oil dependency more than the Prius, thus the government will offer a big juicy tax credit. That alone could wipe out the cost of the battery lease, but again, where will you plug-in? What about that Thursday drive to the beach that is 120 miles there and back?

Well, it's back to the Volt, then, right? EV range for every day driving backed by a range-extending flex-fuel engine? Perfect, except for the fact that after a $7500 tax credit, you could still buy a Prius, pay for a lifetime's worth of fuel and still have several thousand dollars to spare.

Is the Volt a Leaf over the Prius? Not yet, but we'll review again once either Nissan or GM starts producing 100,000 of their plug-ins per year.

Volt to achieve 230 miles per gallon in the city

So now its all about city fuel economy?

230 miles per gallon. That's an impressive number for the Chevy Volt's city fuel economy. Still, I can't help but ask, Why is it when GM markets the fuel economy of all its other 30 mpg vehicles, it's always highway fuel economy that is the standard?

Nonetheless, there was never a doubt that the Volt would achieve stellar numbers on the EPA's city cycle. In the city, the Chevy Volt is essentially an electric vehicle. Makes me wonder, what's the fuel economy of the Tesla Roadster, since it NEVER uses gasoline?

Unlimited miles per gallon?

Inevitably, as electric vehicles become more common, it seems the EPA's methodology becomes more and more obsolete - if it already isn't obsolete.

Regardless, a consumer can still buy a 50 mpg Toyota Prius, pay for its lifetime fuel use, and still save thousands compared to the Volt - and that's after a $7500 tax credit. If the government doesn't extend tax credits for the Volt, it's cost-effectiveness becomes, well, nonexistent.

Hopefully, by the second or third generation Volt, GM will be able to bring down the costs of the Volt to make it more cost-effective for average Americans. In the interim 230 mpg will still provide a lot of bragging rights for Volt early adopters.

Sonata hybrid goes through the paces

Can Blue Drive give Hyundai's hybrids street cred?

Insideline has a couple of spy photos of Hyundai's Sonata hybrid going through some paces with a number of other hybrid cars, such as the Ford Fusion hybrid and the Toyota Camry hybrid. Other than the photo, however, there aren't any new details.

At the LA Auto Show Hyundai claimed that its new lithium polymer batteries were going to be a cut above of the rest of the lithium field, such as the lithium batteries powering the Chevy Volt or the plug-in Toyota Prius.

I can't wait until the real world can put this claim to the test.

Mercury pollution: Not the new GM's problem

Now it's just the people's problem

"36 million mercury switches were used in trunk convenience lights and antilock brakes in vehicles built in the 1980s and 1990s. More than half of them are in GM vehicles built before 2000."

To combat potential mercury pollution - most significantly caused by GM - GM joined a partnership to help clean up their mess. However, the new General Motors is no longer responsible for this problem according to the AP, so the new GM has pulled out of this partnership.

Wow. The government, via taxpayers, puts tens of billions into GM. Then the government creates a cash for clunker program to help GM sell vehicles and reduce pollution, and now taxpayers will have to pick up the tab for recycling the mercury of these clunkers.

Chevy Volt's mileage numbers to be released tomorrow

Yet, you can't buy one for at least another year?

Tomorrow, GM will release the Volt's EPA mileage results, which I'm sure will be well over 100 mpg. Still, real world mileage of the Chevy Volt will be heavily dependent upon driving conditions, frequency of charging etc. Thus, the range of real world fuel economy of the Volt will be far greater than any other vehicle in history.

Regardless, the Volt's mileage results will be impressive, and they will provide oodles of hype and PR opportunities, despite the fact that the Volt is still more than a year from launch; despite the fact that the Volt will face several years of limited production that will limit Volt availability to just tens of thousands of consumers for the first few years, minimally.

Many, including this blogger, have claimed the Volt is far more about marketing than it is about reality, at least in the interim. Of course, however, it could be argued that the Toyota Prius followed the same developmental path. Then again, Toyota didn't spend years hyping the Prius before it launched.

Obviously, GM can use as much buzz as it can to change the negative perception of GM amongst many consumers. Is the extreme amount of marketing developed around the Volt the right path to a positive change in the perception of GM?

Is it time to put cap and trade on the back burner?

The people continue to grow more skeptical of global warming

A few weeks ago I attended HybridFest in Madison, WI. While there I experienced some of Wisconsin's coldest summer days in recorded history. Certainly, such whether isn't proof that global warming isn't real, but it does cause pause, especially for those already skeptical of CO2 emissions and their effect upon global warming.

And, as the economy continues to struggle, more polls seem to indicate that public support for fighting global warming is declining. This simply isn't an issue that is going to unite the people into a positive, forward-thinking movement, at least not today.

Besides, what's the rush to cap and trade legislation? Other countries that have been more progressive on CO2 limits are largely failing to meet their emissions requirements. Might it not be time to think outside of the box?

For instance, foreign oil dependence is an issue that resonates much more with the people. Of course, that doesn't mean the people are willing to be taxed more to fight such dependence. Nonetheless, it is an issue that is a far easier to sell to the American public. More important, a serious declaration of war against foreign oil dependence could have a huge effect on CO2 emissions, on igniting innovations in efficient, aka green, technology in a package the people just might buy.

Ultimately, can America really move forward by forcing Americans to act against their beliefs? Might it not be worth rallying America around an issue in which most Americans can believe?

Tax credits for plug-in hybrids insufficient to spur PHEV sales

Sexy, but expensive

A new study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) finds that the move to plug-in hybrid vehicles will not be easy. Likewise, even if the current Federal Tax Credit for plug-in vehicles - ranging from $2,500 to $7,500 based on battery pack capacity - were made permanent, even more incentives would be required to achieve any serious market penetration, such as a sales tax exemption, in addition to other subsidies.

Under the best case scenario, according to the study, market penetration could be 20 percent in 30 years. However, without a permanent federal tax credit, PLUS additional incentives, plug-in adoption will be "feeble at best."

In conclusion, the researchers suggest a 5 cent gas tax to be used to create additional plug-in incentives. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if that 5 cent gas tax funds both the current Federal Tax Credit, which is capped, and the additional incentives required, or just the additional incentives. If the gas tax covers only the additional incentives, then a larger tax should be assumed.

Unfortunately, even under this best case scenario, gas consumption would only be reduced by 20 percent, meaning that the US would still be heavily dependent upon foreign oil in 30 years.

For media only: Buick plug-in hybrid

The Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid lives

We've known for some time that GM was going to build a plug-in hybrid SUV. Originally, the Saturn Vue was going to be the platform for GM's dual mode plug-in hybrid powertrain, but then GM killed Saturn.

Thus, the new hybrid will based on the GMC Terrain and the Chevrolet Equinox platform and will mate a 3.6-liter V6 flex-fuel engine with a plug-in version of the dual mode hybrid powertrain. Also, it will use similar lithium technology as the Chevy Volt. Expect this new hybrid sometime in 2011.

Certainly, it is a good sign that GM continues to move forward with its hybrid vehicles, but it's hard to accept this new hybrid - or most of GM's hybrids - as anything other than PR fodder and/or a CAFE hedge when GM's product head, Bob Lutz, claims green cars are more about the media than reality.

Have GM's hybrids and plug-ins become a joke?

With Bob Lutz claiming that only 5 percent of the population will be interested in vehicles like the Volt, or this new Buick plug-in, how seriously can GM be taking this market? It seems quite clear, based on Lutz's statements, that GM's endeavors into the Volt and other plug-in vehicles are more about PR than reality.

Prius dominates Japanese car sales

So hybrid incentives don't work?

The Toyota Prius has now been the top selling vehicle in Japan for 3 months, thanks to government incentives to buy hybrid cars.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if an American-made hybrid was the top selling vehicle in the US, with or without tax incentives? If the Prius were made by Ford, instead of Toyota, might not the Prius be close? Wouldn't US consumers flock to an American-made foreign-oil dependency fighting hybrid if it were Prius-competitive in both performance and cost?

Will an American hybrid be the top selling vehicle in America for just one month any time in the next decade?

Lutz: GM must respond to demand for gas guzzlers

Lutz at the Volt debut

"It remains a fact that the American public buys big, high consumption, cars," claims GM's Bob Lutz in a recent interview. Moreover, Lutz goes on to state, "The mass movement towards 'green cars' is only taking place in the media".

Except for the Toyota Prius of course.

Lutz goes on to claim that the Obama Administration wants automakers to build more fuel efficient vehicles than will be achieved via the recent changes in CAFE. However, the only way to make such a move happen is by making gas prices reach European levels, and that would, according to Lutz, be too devastating to the economy.

So, I guess Congress and the White House will just pour money into GM et al to build enough 'green' vehicles to appease the press, while GM focuses most of their efforts on meeting the demand for gas guzzlers?

Cash for clunkers drives Prius sales

Cash for clunkers worked?

According to the National Transportation Safety Administration the 'Cash for Clunkers' program led to a sales surge in small vehicles and hybrid cars, particularly the Toyota Prius. The Prius was the 4th most purchased vehicle via the clunker program.

Now, I'm not calling the clunker program a success, but last week I predicted it would NOT lead to a spike in hybrid sales. It appears I was wrong.

I'm still not a big fan of the program, but I do believe the program has demonstrated the power of consumer-based incentives versus corporate-based incentives.

Battery grants: Tiptoeing around reality?

Will these save the US auto industry?

Just a short while ago, President Obama officially announced his plan to provide some $2 billion in grants to develop a battery industry in the US claiming that 'We failed far too long to invest in innovative technology'.

Such as the billion GM lost on the EV1? Such as the $1 billion + the Clinton Administration granted automakers to develop the next generation of fuel efficient vehicles? That's a couple a billion for innovative technology right there.

While I support these grants, other such efforts have been made in the past. They failed for one reason: cheap gasoline prices. Perhaps gasoline prices will be more supportive of such innovations this time around, but such a bet is still a significant gamble.

For instance, much of this gamble is being bet on plug-in vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt - a vehicle that is going to lose a massive amount of money for at least the next decade. According to the likes of JD Power, etc., such vehicles are going nowhere fast in the next decade. In fact, it will be decades before such vehicles represent at least 10 percent of America's auto fleet.

Even worse, ironically, according to the Volt's father, Bob Lutz, energy prices don't support hybrid cars like the Toyota Prius. Well, the economics of plug-ins like the Volt require significantly higher energy prices than conventional hybrids to achieve cost-effectiveness.

Are these battery grants really any different than what has been tried in the past? Ultimately, isn't innovative fuel efficient technology solely dependent upon energy prices?

New Prius hindered by battery production

Just not enough batteries

Toyota cannot keep up with Prius demand due to a shortage of battery packs according to Toyota senior managing director Takahiko Ijichi. Toyota has the capacity to produce 500,000 Prius hybrids per year, but so far Panasonic EV Energy Co has not been able to match Toyota's output. However, by next summer, Panasonic is hoping to be able to produce enough batteries per year to power 1 million hybrid cars.

Rebates for hybrids ineffective?

Rebates wouldn't bring more into the Prius?

According to a new study, people that buy hybrid vehicles would buy them whether tax credits are available or not. Moreover, if hybrids were not available, these people would be buying other fuel efficient products. Therefore, according to an author of the study, those buying hybrids are having a negligible effect on the environment and fuel efficiency.

I say, poppycock.

So, for urban commuters 50 mpg in a Toyota Prius is irrelevant compared to 30 mpg in a Smart car? Apparently, the idling that fills the daily commutes of millions of Southern Californians, for instance, isn't a problem? If a 20 mpg difference is "not great" then I guess a 30 mpg mid-size car offers no benefits compared to a 10 mpg SUV?

Nonsense.

While I don't disagree that hybrid rebates have had little effect on the conquest of new hybrid consumers, hybrid rebates would convert more hybrid consumers if gas prices were higher. Of course, demand for hybrids would then quickly outpace supply. So, there is a bit of a catch 22 in hybrid rebates that cannot be denied in the short term.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, what this study demonstrates is what is already known. Interest in efficiency for the majority of Americans is dictated by energy prices. Bring on higher energy prices and tax credits and I'd bet many auto consumers would be converted into hybrid vehicles.

Chevy Volt: Lutz's biggest blunder?

A big hit by 2021?

Bob Lutz hates the Toyota Prius.

Several years ago Lutz stated that GM could have easily developed a Prius-like hybrid using just a fraction of one year's marketing budget - since Lutz believed, maybe still believes, that the Toyota Prius was only a PR gimmick, not a real product. Instead, however, GM chose the latest gas-guzzler ads to invest its money.

But that wasn't enough for Lutz. Lutz had to prove the Prius was just a PR gimmick, but how? By leapfrogging the Prius of course. Don't build something to compete with the Prius, build something far better than the Prius. Thus, the Chevy Volt was born.

Unfortunately, according to recent reports, Lutz then believed that GM would be able to sell the Volt for $25,000. Today, we know the Volt will sell for about $40,000. Yet, even at that price according to these reports, the Volt will still be sold at a loss.

Alex Taylor III of Fortune states, "The per-unit loss will be on top of the $1 billion development cost for the Volt. It is remarkable that despite GM's deteriorating finances and the fact that it lost $1 billion on an earlier electric vehicle, Lutz still managed to sell the Volt program to GM's board."

Thus, I guess it's no wonder that Lutz hates the Prius. The Volt isn't Lutz's biggest blunder. Instead, Lutz's biggest blunder has been the Prius, a vehicle that has proven Lutz wrong again and again.

Prius proves hybrids aren't just a fad, even with cheap gas

10th best selling vehicle in America in July

Hybrid sales are dead. According to a number of the auto rags consumers don't want hybrid cars when gas prices are low. Period.

Well, despite gas prices that are far cheaper than last year - about $1.50 less - the Toyota Prius is the 10th best selling vehicle in America.

Call them a niche. Call them an interim technology, but the Prius proves that smart hybrids can sell, even when gasoline prices aren't terribly supportive. Yet, we all know gas prices will eventually head higher.

For years most other automakers have tried avoiding direct competition against the Prius, how much clearer does the writing on the wall need to become before automakers end this denial?