Lithium-ion: Only a bridge technology
A couple of Chevy Volt lithium-ion battery packsSo, can lithium-ion batteries make plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles as common as your conventional gas-powered vehicle anytime soon?
Probably not. In fact, lithium-ion batteries are just a bridge technology to real EV penetration according to Argonne Laboratories, a source of much lithium-ion research. To make plug-in vehicles cost-effective enough for the masses, Argonne is focusing on next generation lithium-air batteries.
Still, lithium-air batteries are yet dependent upon numerous technological breakthroughs before becoming a possible reality. Even then, according to Argonne Director Eric Isaacs, it will be ten or twenty years before this technology can be commercially adopted.
Labels: lithium battery, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
5:46 PM
14 Comments:
" bridge technology to real EV penetration"
then
..." it will be ten or twenty years before this [lithium-air batteries] technology can be commercially adopted."
so if I understand correctly - the current lithium battery technology is all we have for EVs for the next 10 or 20 years?
what does this REALLY mean?
No, we have NiMH that has been PROVEN for the past 10 years and is also less expensive than Li ion.
Also, good quality lead acid batteries can be used as well, as in the first EV1's which has a 100 mile range....
re: lead-acid ... well if that's true then what is all this plug-in folderal about?
are you saying that right now everyone could have lead-acid battery-powered cars that "plug-in"?
How come none of the major brands, including Toyota don't offer them?
This gives new meaning to the words
"I've got a bridge to sell you."
ha ha ha.. yes...
seems like everything in the energy technology world these days is a "bridge" technology.
in some respects the phrase "bridge" means that we don't know what technology to pursue primarily and/or that the ones that seem to have the most promise are just not mature yet.
One thing is for sure. And that is if someone could make a car that was cheaper to operate that the current offerings - and it met current pollution standards - it would come onto the market place and be a serious competitor.
Whoever of the car companies that discovered it would exploit it fully to their competitive advantage - fully patenting the technology - just like folks like Bill Gates and George de Mestral did.
I'll leave it up to the readers here to figure out who George was but suffice to say he became a millionaire as well as his descendants.
But here's something for everyone to consider.
Would you bet that in the next 10 or 20 years that some very significant breakthroughs would occur - perhaps even in the energy technology field?
What is our track record?
Myself, I think our track record is excellent.
It might be that 20 years from now many of us will ask ourselves what the big deal was back during the early 2000's.
20 years ago, how many of you had a cell phone or a MP3 player, or TiVo, etc?
Technology moves quick... sometimes.. but energy technology is a tougher nut to crack...
there are many using lead acid batteries in plug-in conversions, but typically their lifespan is short. one conversion person i've talked to said you'd have to replace the battery pack, at least numerous cells, every couple of years on average.
i'm not sure NiMH makes sense either, not if you are talking millions of vehicles per year.
if you look back at the commodities charts in 2007 and 2008, many of the NiMH components, especially Nickel, were becoming extremely expensive. eventually, that would have driven up the cost of the batteries, or at least prevented any serious decrease in pricing.
and that was making 500,000 hybrids per year. imagine making 500,000 EVs, the costs would have almost certainly been prohibitive. start talking millions, and i think you have real problems with the charts.
almost certainly, nimh could not to lead to mass-consumed EVs.
on the other hand, most in the battery community believe that once maunfacturing processes are hammered out further, lithium-ion can increase hybrid and plug-in share.
still, even lithium-ion isn't the key to mass adoption, but it could produce a few tens of millions of plug-ins, or a few hundred million conventional hybrids.
automakers are have largely known this for years and they've been developing lithium technologies beyond lithium-ion for several years.
i would argue, however, that lithium-ion could offer dramatic opportunities for hybridizing america's fleet. these hybrids could then be converted to plug-ins as the battery technology develops.
thus, ultimately, i'd say your energy concerns are right larry.
lithium-ion technology has been in labs for decades. it has been used in smaller applications for many years now as well. consequently, the scalability curves are pretty well known within the battery industry.
costs are expected to drop by about 1/3 rather quickly, then cost-savings will slow significantly according to the latest research.
thus, i wish there was a more honest conversation going on in washington about this reality.
lead-acid batteries though are imminently recyclable though..
any idea how the operating costs of lead-acid batteries compares to other technologies?
Is it "close" or is it "no way Jose?"
I have one of these solar battery chargers and it has no problem keeping the lead-acid battery topped off.
I have a bet.
we're going to see other battery technologies - perhaps a battery equivalent of the LED light....
nimh and lithium are highly recyclable as well.
the general consensus in the battery industry and the auto industry is that lead acid isn't economically viable for anything other then niche penetration.
any application that doesn't have the long term ability to move at several million vehicles, minimally, just isn't going to be an option in the auto industry.
I am sure most of you know about Firefly energy and their foam battery. Here is some teaser information about their new 3D technology. Further reading is available at the below link.
And then there are paper batteries coming down the pike but that will be a post for another day :-)
Tom G.
3D2 will be a “breakthrough” technology in that it enables the true power of lead acid chemistry to be realized; allowing the use of lead-acid chemistry in many new applications, some of which are currently being served by NiCad, NiMH and/or Li-Ion, as well as improving performance and life in existing lead-acid battery applications.
http://www.fireflyenergy.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=60&Itemid=89
_paper_ batteries? you mean 1/2 or less weight than conventional lead-acid batteries?
why.. heckfire.. that means lighter electric cars.. right?
holy moly..
20 years from now, I am convinced that many of us will say "what was all of that uproar about energy in the early 2000's"?
Right now.. we've just got a lot of impatient folks.. wanting change.. faster than it is occurring...
Larry
I first read or became aware of paper batteries on the MIT energy website I sometimes post on. Doing a Google search got me to this Wikipedia article instead of the Stanford U or MIT articles. Enjoy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper_battery
Tom G.
Thanks Tom. do you think whoever gets this to a practical stage will make as much money as the guy who invented Velcro or Bill Gates?
Darn good question Larry. But right about now I would happy with just 1% of Bills :-) I would of course use the Velcro to hold the stacks of money together, LOL
Merry Christmas to you Larry and Dahcredyns and to all of my other friends here on the Hybrid Cars blog. I hope Santa brings you lots of 100 kW/h batteries with 120 Volt plugs attached LOL
Tom Garven
Lake Havasu City, AZ
tomgarven@hotmail.com
last post until after Christmas
i would argue, however, that lithium-ion could offer dramatic opportunities for hybridizing america's fleet. these hybrids could then be converted to plug-ins as the battery technology develops.
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