The great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug?
Better without the plug?Depending upon the poll or survey, between 70 and 80 percent of Americans are interested in buying a hybrid car today. Many of them are interested because they are worried about pollution and global warming. Most, however, are interested in hybrid cars because they help reduce foreign oil consumption.
Unfortunately, hybrids are still too expensive, according to these same polls, for most Americans to act upon these various convictions. Most Americans are only willing to pay a little more to 'do the right thing'. Many, perhaps even a majority, are unwilling to pay anything extra for a hybrid, or any other foreign-oil dependency-fighting product.
So, what's the solution? More expensive plug-in hybrid cars and electric vehicles, of course, at least judging by the actions of today's politicians and US automakers.
Finish: The great hybrid hoax: Adding a plug?
Labels: Foreign Oil Dependency, global warming, Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
10:36 AM
5 Comments:
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Ironically, not nearly as many Americans are interested in plug-in hybrid cars as compared to conventional hybrids. Furthermore, most potential plug-in consumers are just as cost-conscious as are hybrid consumers, especially regarding upfront costs.
Yet, a new study by the National Resource Council indicates that plug-in hybrids will continue to be too expensive for mass adoption for decades - as have most studies on this subject. Even worse, plug-in hybrids will have minimal impact on either foreign oil dependency or CO2 emissions before 2030, especially compared to conventional hybrid cars.
Toyota, and to some extent Honda, have understood this for years. By 2020, Toyota expects 30 percent of its fleet to be conventional hybrid cars, as others try to leap-frog today's hybrids with plug-in versions.
Of course, if every automaker were taking the Toyota path, by 2030 perhaps 40 - or even 50 percent or more - of all vehicles on the road could be hybrid cars - with the same incentives needed to make just a few percent of America's fleet plug-in vehicles by 2030.
Instead of direct Prius-contenders, however, companies like GM will continue to make rap videos about the virtues of the Chevy Volt, even though the Volt will neither help GM achieve profitability, nor will it help America reduce its foreign oil consumption or CO2 emissions for decades.
Of course, the politicians will continue to pay billions just to hear GM rap away reality.
Without question, plug-in hybrid vehicles are an essential technology for automakers, but today's hybrid cars offer significantly more potential for the next few decades - potential that can be plugged in once feasible. Instead, of 13 million PHEVs and 287 million gas cars on the road by 2030, wouldn't 150 million plug-in conversion-ready conventional hybrids offer a lot more bang for the buck?
Inevitably, America can't rap its way out of foreign oil dependency. Isn't it time to leave the hype, special effects and fantasies in Hollywood? Isn't it time to get real?
If the higher cost of hybrids keeps the market share for that vehicle at less than 3% of the US auto market, what percentage of the market will the even higher cost PHEV's represent?
I estimate PHEV's will represent less than 1% of the total market. How much impact will that have on foreign oil dependency? Almost none.
On the other hand, if battery improvements can get hybrid costs down to only $1500 more than a conventional counterpart, the hybrid market percentage will increase significantly. This could actually have an impact on foreign oil dependence....
That has to be Toyota's thinking if they believe they can achieve their goal of converting 30 percent of their fleet into hybrids by 2020. So far, Toyota has been pretty accurate with their hybrid predictions.
While Honda hasn't been as forthcoming with their plans, they've alluded to the same kind of vision.
Plug-in or not...Something’s got to change
Transportation in USA produced 2133.3 t of GHG emissions (in 2006), and approximately 32% of these emissions were generated from passenger cars and motorcycles [1]. Vehicles have become so ingrained in our lifestyles that they likely won’t disappear anytime soon. So if personal vehicles are here to stay then measures should be taken to reduce the negative impacts they cause.
Hybrid an all electric vehicles are definitely keys to reducing emissions and cutting down on foreign oil dependency. So these types of vehicles are still pretty pricey? and the plug-in versions even more so?... Well at least they are out there in the market and gaining popularity. The increasing demand for more of these cars should drive the prices down in the next few years (usually it costs less to manufacture larger quantities).
If the car companies can put their butts into innovative high gear then who knows maybe they’ll be able to come up with better less expensive and more marketable solutions for the majority of us.
P. Schmitt
www.ecocar.uvic.ca
[1] http://climate.dot.gov/ghg-inventories-forcasts/national/us-inventory-structure.html
The National Research Council assumed even best case scenarios - major battery breakthroughs and 100's of billions in incentives.
Even then, PHEV marketshare would still be too insignificant to have any real impact on foreign oil dependence or CO2 emissions before 2030.
And this isn't the first study to suggest this. Essentially, every major unbiased, academic study has come to the same conclusion.
That doesn't mean we stop developing plug-in hybrids, but it should mean a bit of a change in focus and priorities if we're serious about real change as soon as possible.
For instance, maybe plug-in hybrid tax credits are premature. Perhaps it would be better to push consumers into conventional hybrid cars, particularly 'full' hybrids that can later be converted to phevs as the technology becomes viable.
Instead of cash for clunkers, we could have cash for phev conversions.
That's just one example.
However, if we simply wait for plug-ins to become viable, we'll have waited far too long to take action that could already be achieved today with alternative, interim technologies, fuels, etc.
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