EVs leading to a "green bubble"?
Buy the Leaf, rent the $10,000 battery?By 2020, Nissan's Carlos Ghosn recently claimed, 10 percent of worldwide vehicle sales will be electric vehicles.
Global Insight, however, puts that EV market share figure at .06 percent, according to the DetroitNews.
Likewise, the same article cites a CitiGroup Markets Report aimed at investors in the power utilities and the auto companies that warns cost barriers, the need for massive incentives, range issues, and a lack of infrastructure create the "risk of this [EVs] being another green bubble."
Even before EVs take off, Deutsche Bank believes that hybrid cars, small cars and other fuel efficient technologies will cause an "inexorable and accelerating decline" in gasoline demand beginning in 2015.
If true, how will governments afford massive incentives for EVs and EV infrastructure if their gas tax revenues begin to decline significantly? Furthermore, if gasoline demand declines, won't gas prices also decline and make it even harder to entice consumers into more expensive electric cars?
Labels: electric cars, Hybrid Vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
6:21 AM
8 Comments:
There ya go. Another article that focuses soley on cost and not a mention of energy independence or environmental benefits.
I call it a focus on reality.
I wrote an article based on an article done by the DetroitNews, that I cited and linked to, that had some impressive sources on EVs
My title to this article is followed by a question mark. Likewise, I didn't claim that this was true, but I thought the points raised and the sources that raised them were very interesting.
Please feel free to explain how these sources' claims are irrelevant to achieving energy independence.
Ironically, perhaps these sources could help lead to a more efficient path to energy independence that isn't built purely on assumptions that haven't even been proven in the real world.
Finally, go out and objectively do the research. You'll find that almost all of the studies suggest the same sorts of major obstacles.
When the studies suggest otherwise, i'll post them as well. For now, however, there are major obstacles to overcome.
All of the solutions, however, are based around incentives. Already American cannot pay for transporation infrastructure via our current, insufficient gas taxes. In fact, it's become quite a problem.
So, when we need to spend a massive amount of money to change our transportation system, we're also going to be taking in far less money that is supposed to pay for our transportation system.
Today, every economist claims that the government spending must soon stop. In fact new taxes will almost assuredly be needed, and we're going to be losing a significant percent of our tax revenue.
That suggest to me that we'll probably need for more out-of-the-box solutions if we're truly serious about energy independence and not just talking the talk as we have for the last several decades with all our good intentions.
Good Evening Dhcredyns. Like your article, I think the comment by annonymous was meant to spark debate. All of your questions are good. In my opinion, the education process for seeing the value in energy independence and improving the environment are, at best, abysmal. So here's another question. How do we start a grass roots education process that, not only reaches the masses, but also changes the mindset of the masses? Perhaps such a task is insurmountable?
Can you actually see – and pinpoint – a shift in the balance of power? It appears so!
Check out this post
http://amicars.blogspot.com/2009/10/can-you-actually-see-and-pinpoint-shift.html
robby-d
i've been thinking about that ever since i started blogging on this issue.
certainly it seems insurmountable, and it might be, but it's worth trying.
have any ideas?
After reading the article that amit gave the link to, I would have to say that the ball is rolling for EV's, but........... the American public in general is still in love with "BIG", not "small". The mentality of the American public is what needs to change and when I look at my neighbors and relatives, those that take a genuine interest in the envrionment and energy independence and are doing somethign about it are still in a very small minority. But, at a snails pace, I do feel that there is a growing interest. Those of us that care about the environment and energy independence must not give up and must be visible example. For God's sake, it's our planet and our children!!!!
no doubt there is growing interest. in fact, the overall interest level in hybrids and EVs is actually quite high.
it's the interest in paying extra for these technologies, at least upfront, that really needs to be addressed.
ultimately, as you note, there needs to be a revolution in the america's auto culture. eventually, external events will force this change, but by then it might be too late for the environment, for the american auto industry and maybe for the american economy.
we have so much to gain by accepting change. unfortunately, most people are only willing to change when they have no choice, and even then, they are often resistant.
Chinese manufacturer BYD will be soon the biggest battery car maker in the world.
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