Toyota won't rush into plug-in Prius rollout
Plug-in leases coming soonToyota is on track to lease 500 plug-in Prius hybrids before the end of this year. According to Toyota, these plug-in hybrids will offer an electric range of 12 miles, afterwhich the Prius functions pretty much like a standard 3rd generation Prius.
Thus far, Toyota has claimed that its lithium battery production has proven reliable and that its manufacturing process appears sound. Hopefully that trend holds true as production scales upward.
Nonetheless, Toyota is not in a race to bring such technology to the mass market.
"Although we like to be first to market with these technologies, it's more important that we are best to market," says Irv Miller, Toyota's environmental and public affairs group vice president in the U.S.
Unfortunately, no real word on costs just yet, although the plug-in Prius should be a good bit cheaper than the Chevy Volt thanks to its shorter EV range and smaller battery pack. And costs, according to recent polls, will be critical to successful PHEV adoption.
Still, does Toyota's plug-in Prius really mean much until Toyota can replace the NiMH batteries in the the current Prius with lithium? Isn't that the best path to economies of scale for lithium production and, eventually, plug-in vehicles?
Labels: Chevy Volt electric vehicle concept, plug-in hybrid vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
7:50 AM
26 Comments:
...." it's more important that we are best to market"
this is the difference between Toyota and GM.
Name a true dog of a car that had a Toyota name-tag on it?
Now repeat that exercise with GM.
Toyota is about the only car maker that I would buy a new model from because it's going to be right - or they will make it right.
and this is where the phrase "early adopter" comes in....
Toyota is saying 12 miles and GM is saving what 230 mpg...
On one hand - you get some realistic words from Toyota - dealing with expectations in a very different way from GM.
Letting GM go under - at the point of time when the rest of the economy was cratering also would be been a bad deal.
but as soon as we get out of this.. I say cut them loose..
unfortuantely for the workers.. GM corporate culture has yet to understand why Toyota wins.
and there is a worry that politicians don't understand the auto business either.
aside from finding that america will have to pick up much of the tab for the automaker bailout, the bailout panel warned that politics could be another problem in the future.
the Audi President kind of made that claim last week.
many argued previously that the tax credits for phevs were crafted for the chevy volt. will they be extended in a way to protect the volt if the volt doesn't sell?
personally, i don't like this whole plug-in credit. i'd prefer to see it converted into a lithium credit.
the key to both hybrids and plug-in hybrids is battery technology. NiMH can only take hybrids so far. thus, we should be getting into lithium as quickly as possible.
Interesting POLL (skip to bottom question):
http://www.hntb.com/sites/default/files/issues/America%20THINKS%20Funding%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf
Cool information.
Yet, it demonstrates what most other data conclude, that it all comes down to cost.
A majority of consumers are interested in purchasing hybrids, but not without incentives, particularly tax incentives.
Are they lithium plugins?
they are lithium hybrids.
I think what we are looking and waiting for is a big break through in battery technology. Instead of throwing $80 billion at the automotive industry government should be spear heading the research into battery technology.
I agree. You know the one thing that this country is really good at is R&D and the innovations that arise from it.
A lot (not all) of the major technology that has transformed the world came from our R&D labs but the irony is that our Corporate folks seem more tuned in to what kind of wiz-bang stuff that will sell more SUVs than the fundamental technologies that would return them to world-leader status.
So they stand around waiting for Companies like Toyota to make the needed breakthroughs.
my question is what are the responsibilities of companies like GM in this?
Why do we assume that our taxpayer labs bear this responsibility while other countries expect their companies to do it?
There was a time in this country when the auto companies themselves were pushing the technology bow wave and not waiting for the govt or worse..waiting for Toyota.
I'm sure there are some alternate views on this so let's hear them.
I also agree, and I've been working on a post with this angle the last few days that I published this morning.
Time to get real about hybrids and plug-in vehicles
Indigo Incarnates
I don't really see the point of plug-in hybrids anyway. I'd rather simply have a more effecient hybrid car instead of a contraption that will burn gas and jack up my power bill at the same time.
Now if any manufacturer can make a PHEV a worthwhile purchase, it'll be Toyota and not GM. We all know the Prius is a really good car and third-party vendors vave been doing technologically-successful PHEV conversions for years. What's not been done is a PHEV conversion that makes economic sense. Toyota has typically been good at finding cost effective ways to do things, so maybe they'll figure out how to do a Prius PHEV that doesn't cost $40k.
The Volt, on the other hand, is a joke. Even the most cursory analysis can show how this car in no way gets 230 MPG. It will get closer to 30 MPG. And you can get one Prius *and* one Insight together for the price of a Volt.
Indigo, I wonder what kind of "cursory analysis" can tell that Volt "will get closer to 30 MPG." I wish to learn such a method? Is it something that is not taught in the university?
Yes, you are right that PHEVs are not price-efficient right now. Not even hybrids by the way. Yet, they are still being produced and sold. To produce or not to produce it is just a rather arbitrary political/managerial decision.
Indigo Incarnates
Bob Lutz stated that the Volt will have a 300-mile cruising range. Many hybrids have gas tanks that hold between 10-12 gallons of fuel. Assuming a 10-gallon tank and a 300-mile range, you get 30 MPG.
My Scion xD easily beats that figure.
What if it has 8 gallon tank? Or Bob Lutz has mistaken about the range?
LB-
According to Consumer Reports, there are several hybrids that recover their extra costs in under 5 years.
In LA, gas is over $3.00 per gallon today.
If you drive from the valleys, or Orange Country into downtown LA every day, hybrids are cost-effective compared to similarly sized vehicles.
Most consumers still don't buy them, however, because they don't want to pay extra up front to save a couple of grand during the time they own the vehicle. We think today, not 7 years from now.
Likewise, according to a number of reports, the Prius is profitable for Toyota. However, I'm sure it's not as profitable as other vehicles.
Still, many cars aren't profitable for automakers, but they build them anyway hoping that these consumers will upgrade on their next vehicle purchase - at least that's case for US automakers, where profit margins are harder to come by in some classes of vehicles.
Dahc,
I personally don't care about consumer report. A hybrid (Camry or Prius) saves $40-50 for every one thousand milesm, $400-500 for 10 thousand. A simple math, BTW. To cover a 5 thousand difference between hybrid Camry and conventional Camry you should drive 100,000 miles. For Prius the difference is even larger. Do you drive 20000 miles every year? This is well above the average.
I don't agree with your math, nor does Consumer Reports and a number of other organizations that have looked into this data.
Dahc,
If you don't agree, please, substantiate.
lb-
consumer reports, edmunds, money, etc, have all done total cost of ownership studies that clearly dispute your contention.
moreover, the scenario i proposed, one which would include mostly city fuel economy under the EPA's methodology, provides fuel savings that are greater for both the camry and the prius than do your numbers.
along that trend as well, the prius offers more relative fuel efficiency than does the camry hybrid, even compared to the corolla, which isn't a pure apple to apple comparison.
likewise, i have to assume - based on your numbers - that you are comparing a base 4 cylinder camry to a camry hybrid, which i don't believe you can do. according to Edmunds a similarly packaged camry hybrid costs $1500 more than camry.
even at $2500 more, with $3.00 gas in the conditions i described previously, the average driver would recover their costs in less than 5 years.
and, today, in LA, gas costs over $3.00.
I am sorry, Dahc, you cannot compare Hybrid Carmy with Camry XLE, either, That will be apples with oranges again.
If you refute my math, you provide yours. Please, don't send me to any bulshit article that make conclusions along the line "Camry Hybrid = Camry XLE with 6 Cylinders." Believe me, most consumers don't buy this argument.
Yes, the basic Corolla does not directly compare to basic Prius (though it is pretty close). The difference is, however, 10 thousand. Ok, I am ready to believe that half of that price difference is due to Prius being superior. The other half: 5 thousand it still 10 years to cover. Or maybe 8 in very heavy city traffic.
LB-
Your contention that Edmunds might be overly pro-hybrid is hard for me to take seriously. Edmunds, Karl on Cars and other Edmunds writers have been extremely and consistently critical of hybrids.
Likewise, my godmother drives in these conditions in LA and traded in her Camry for a Camry hybrid. She'll stand by these numbers based on real world driving of both vehicles in such conditions.
Also, take a look a fueleconomy.gov and do a side by side analysis, except you'll have to factor in higher gas prices to match LA's, and increase the amount of time in city congestion.
Finally, combined with the EPA data and Consumers Reports, Edmunds, etc., I don't know what else to say.
Again, from my real world experiences, my point is valid, and it's backed up by numerous sources of data.
If that's not enough, then we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.
Dahc, the keyword that these journals WERE critical.
I went to fueleconomy.gov. Their estimates are even MORE conservative than mine. The difference is only $350. Ok, in LA it will be $500, because of the congestion and higher prices. Talking about congestion. I rented an American MiniVAN recently for my New England Vacation. It drove with 7 people and AC, which was often on. New England is congested in June even on highways. Man, I still got 20 mpg. I am not a hypermiler, that is, I do not do some special hypermyling tricks. With a modern Camry you get something close to 30mpg on average, if you live in LA.
2010 Toyota Camry
2010 Toyota Camry Hybrid
Use Your Gas Prices & Annual Miles
2010 Toyota Camry
2010 Toyota Camry Hybrid
Compare Side-by-Side
Cost to drive 25 Miles
$2.48
$1.90
Fuel to Drive 25 Miles
0.96 gal
0.74 gal
Annual Fuel Cost*
$1490
$1138
Even with much more favorable estimates towards hybrids: 15000 miles annually, 20% highway driving, it is still only $600 dollar/year difference between four cylinder Camry and Camry hybrid.
The same will be for Honda insight. It is only 3.5 thousand more expensive than Civic, but it does not compare directly against Civic. It is more like Honda Fit.
but again, the base camry hybrid is a four cylinder backed up with an electric motor and battery that is more like a 6 cylinder than a 4 cylinder. likewise, even the base camry hybrid is well stocked with many fancy features.
i'm not arguing that every hybrid car will return a value on the hybrid investment, but for many drivers, they can. for most, however, this requires heavy congestion, such as the congestion felt by most LA commuters during the morning and evening rush hours.
my old commute was less than 15 minutes without traffic. typically, however, it took me at least 45 minutes. at least a time or two a week it was more than an hour. just getting onto the freeway, less than a mile, could take more than 15 minutes on my return trip. that's basically pure idling.
in such conditions independent testing has shown the 2nd gen prius can average more than 55 mpg, the corolla wouldn't even achieve half that in such conditions.
yet, when i lived in venice, ca and worked downtown, my commute was even worse.
a couple of years ago congress - i think, at least it was referenced by congress - did a study on how so cal traffic demonstrated that the EPA's city cycle did not accurately measure such congestion. basically, most vehicles in such conditions achieve well under the epa's figures.
full hybrids, on the other hand, can achieve well over the epa's figures in such congestion.
Dahc, it is overly difficult to compare, because there is not one-to-one correspondence between a hybrid and non-hybrid version. They all have different set of options, engines, etc... That is why it is always possible to show whatever you want to show.
With $6 a gallon, it would be more obvious.
That is really interesting
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