Toyota: It won't be easy to scale down lithium, plug-in costs
A Prius about to be converted into a plug-inSince the launch of the first Toyota Prius, NiMH battery costs have dropped from about $10,000 per battery pack to less than $3,000. Size and weight have seen similar reductions.
So, won't lithium battery technology follow the same scalable trajectory?
Not according to Toyota.
After a few years of quietly testing lithium-ion technology in a number of Prius hybrids in real world conditions throughout the world, Toyota was able to validate that lithium-ion technology is safe. However, for the small fuel efficiency gains it provides, lithium is just not yet cost-effective.
Nonetheless, while Toyota believes that NiMH technology is the best technology for today's hybrid cars, the automaker still believes that lithium is the best technology for plug-in vehicles. Unfortunately, Toyota does not believe that mass production will scale down the costs of lithium technology nearly as fast as NiMH technology according to a presentation at the California Air Resources Board’s ZEV Technology Symposium in Sacramento, California.
Coupled with limited range, lack of infrastructure, etc., Toyota believes it will be hard for current lithium technologies to move plug-in technologies into the mass market.
However, at the same conference, representatives from Nissan and Tesla, for instance, were more positive on lithium technology.
Is Toyota a lithium and plug-in vehicle laggard? Does Toyota have the wrong lithium technology? Is Toyota too vested to NiMH? Or, is Toyota simply being honest about the realities of lithium and the plug-in revolution?
Labels: lithium battery, plug-in hybrid vehicles, toyota prius
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:41 AM
10 Comments:
did Toyota get it wrong?
not usually.
will GM get it right?
hmmmm
place your bets.
i don't believe toyota has it wrong.
obviously, toyota has spent a lot of money developing the supply chains, etc to bring about relatively cost-effective NiMH battery production. and, there is no doubt that NiMH is more cost-effective than lithium.
however, is it possible that toyota could stick with NiMH too long? that would be my worry.
nonetheless, toyota is moving ahead with lithium. and, in terms of vehicles, toyota aims to keep plug-in prius production close to volt production, at least for the first few years.
likewise, toyota will also be producing pure EVs.
hence, it seems to me that toyota is just as much in the lithium game as any other automaker, at least in terms of near term production capabilities.
gm's bob lutz, however, has claimed that gm's lithium chemistry would be better than toyota's. i'm guessing that's a bit presumptuous however.
i don't think any first generation chemistry is going to be a homerun, and it might not come down to chemistries, but rather production methodologies. and along those lines, hyundai's lithium polymer seems the most compelling.
Hyundai - coming soon to a dealer near you. Could be a game changer.
Tom G.
and they've been scarily quite. when hyundai announced their lithium polymer hybrids at last year's LA auto show, no one even knew it was coming.
certainly, they had made some statements regarding their future hybrid plans, but not in any detail. nor did they provide any indication that they had been aggressively developing battery technology.
it will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
Here is some fairly new info from autoblog.com re' Hyundai.
Tom G.
http://www.autoblog.com/2009/08/10/spy-shots-2011-hyundai-sonata-hybrid-caught-in-the-desert/
Hyundai has taken a slightly different approach to energy storage, using flat lithium polymer battery packs holding 5.3 Ah of capacity at 270 volts in lieu of nickel metal hydride or lithium ion technology. Expect the hybrid bits to add 30kW of power to Hyundai's 2.4-liter Theta II four cylinder powerplant mated up with a six-speed automatic transmission. A quick glance underhood shows the telltale bright orange wiring normally associated with hybrid automobiles.
when you look at this path and compare it to the current GM path... there are clear differences.
If you took the Chevy Volt away from the GM lineup - how would it compare to the Toyota/Hyundai lineup?
A cynical person might say that the Volt is GM's "token" hybrid.
no?
well, gm is also developing a dual mode plug-in hybrid drive train, and it will continue to sell dual mode hybrid vehicles.
additionally, GM is to re-launch their mild hybrid drivetrain by 2011 which will also use lithium. and, gm has hinted that these hybrids could also eventually use GM's hcci technology, but i doubt that will happen for several years after launch.
still, we have yet to see how serious GM is about any of these hybrids, as GM's hybrid sales have not been very significant thus far.
moreover, gm's mild hybrid powertrain was a dud the first time around. will relaunching it with lithium really make a difference?
unfortunately, thus far, gm's hybrids have not lived up to the pre-launch hype. hopefully, that trend does not continue.
what's the primary differences between GM's hybrids and the others "out there"?
it's not that easy.
GM has two different technologies (not including plug-in hybrids). Both are different from Honda's and Toyota's. Honda's and Toyota's are different. Ford's is more like Toyota, but not exactly.
gm's BAS hybrid was built largely to take advantage of start/stop functionality, but it's gain are minimal.
honda took this type of hybrid drive much further.
gm's dual mode hybrid was built to power large SUVs and trucks. it really is a remarkable technology, but it really only applies to large vehicles, and it's pretty expensive, at least in terms of sticker price.
toyota and ford built their hybrid technology around crossovers and down. these vehicles can't tow or carry heavy payloads nearly as well as GM's hybrid trucks.
again, but there is a cost difference.
if you don't tow a lot, for instance, then you are paying a lot for functionality you will never use.
likewise, toyota and fords' hybrid techologies scale better downwards.
gm's dual mode technology is largely for 6 - cylinder vehicles and above.
i could keep going on.....
I'll listen as long as you want to educate.
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