35 percent hybrid and EV by 2025
No price difference between a Camry and Camry hybrid?According to a report by Reportlinker, "electric vehicles will penetrate the market rapidly to constitute 35% of the cars made in 2025 - 25% hybrids, 10% pure EV."
Why will we get there? What will cause this big swing towards hybrid vehicles?
"Within the decade, it will be possible for some suppliers to offer hybrid cars and no price premium to conventional cars in the way that the Japanese took the Western car market by storm 20 years ago by offering excellent vehicles with most accessories thrown in free. There would then be no strong reason why anyone would want the conventional alternative."
This analysis is a bit more optimistic than a number of other reports out there.
What do you think? Will a Camry hybrid be priced almost the same as a conventional Camry within the decade?
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
11:00 AM
8 Comments:
hybrid vehicles - the part about having separate fossil fuel engines and electric engines with electric traction motors vices mechanicals to the fossil-fuel engine are want is fostering the change IMHO.
We make locomotives this way and we're starting to make ships this way.
but I think we need to distinguish between cars that are using hybrid technologies to deliver a more modern, innovative vehicle
..and the kinds of hybrid cars that are what I would call "tricked out" to squeeze every last bit of weight out, be as aerodynamic as possible, recapture braking, etc.. to the nth degree to get a fully state-of-the-art optimized hybrid.
that kind of car with it's many compromises is not going to appeal to folks who don't want to trade functionality for state-of-the-art.
So.. I'd introduce a phrase called "Mainstream Hybrids" to differentiate betweens cars that take the next step innovation wise and incorporate hybrid technology to produce an even better car verses heavy compromised "bleeding edge" of technology vehicles.
I would have no doubt, what-so-ever that cars whose engines cut off in typical idling situations and then "go" when the pedal is pushed will become the standard... especially in urban areas with air-quality issues.
but that guy hauling chainsaws in the bed of his pickup out in rural Iowa... I dunno...
Of course for ever one of him there are 100 young guys cruising our major urban areas so who knows.
This can happen if some part becomes cheaper. An electric with cheap batteries (lead carbon or NiMh) and a tiny engine that just charges the battery. No need for an ICE engine for maximum power, just enough to maintain highway speed. 25 HP may be enough.
I would have thought sooner than that but car makers are soooo slow at reacting to consumer changes. I know the hybrid is a bid change from pure gas models but anyone could see this coming a decade ago.
john-
according to the studies i've seen a parallel plug-in prius is more cost-effective than a series hybrid like the volt, despite the parallel drive.
ultimately, plug-in series hybrids aren't that efficient because of the weight of the batteries, especially for any vehicle that might have to move 4 adults around with AC in city traffic.
if we're talking something like what aptera is working on, then maybe a series hybrid could be more cost-effective.
ultimately, a full hybrid is the most efficient vehicle for people that can't plug-in. of course, maybe an hcci mild hybrid could change that. or could you also have an hcci full hybrid?
on the other hand, a pure electric car is the most efficient for people that can plug-in. that's what makes better place's business model compelling, at least until we have cost-effective 300 mile evs and 5 minute total charges.
series hybrids aren't that cost-effective, i meant to say, although i guess you could argue they aren't financially efficient.
Nice site by the way...Very cool!
In looking at opinion pole numbers, many Americans want hybrids, but at the same cost as an ICE-only vehicle.
I don't know if it is is possible for auto makers to offer hybrids at no increased costs, but if they do, you can bet the farm that Americans will buy them.
in such a scenario, why wouldn't you buy the hybrid?
i'd like to get more details on the reportlinker report, but the costs of the report are a little hefty for me. it would be nice to know what kind of data led them to such a conclusion, particularly since their forecast seems much more rosy than a lot of other analysis in the segment.
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