Chevy Volt's mileage numbers to be released tomorrow
Yet, you can't buy one for at least another year?Tomorrow, GM will release the Volt's EPA mileage results, which I'm sure will be well over 100 mpg. Still, real world mileage of the Chevy Volt will be heavily dependent upon driving conditions, frequency of charging etc. Thus, the range of real world fuel economy of the Volt will be far greater than any other vehicle in history.
Regardless, the Volt's mileage results will be impressive, and they will provide oodles of hype and PR opportunities, despite the fact that the Volt is still more than a year from launch; despite the fact that the Volt will face several years of limited production that will limit Volt availability to just tens of thousands of consumers for the first few years, minimally.
Many, including this blogger, have claimed the Volt is far more about marketing than it is about reality, at least in the interim. Of course, however, it could be argued that the Toyota Prius followed the same developmental path. Then again, Toyota didn't spend years hyping the Prius before it launched.
Obviously, GM can use as much buzz as it can to change the negative perception of GM amongst many consumers. Is the extreme amount of marketing developed around the Volt the right path to a positive change in the perception of GM?
posted by Dahcredyns at
10:14 AM
23 Comments:
I think GM's PR efforts worked for me and others.
I almost wavered with the 2010 Prius, but the bad economy and my continued fascination with the Volt's technology and promise has pretty much decided my next car choice. In this economy it makes sense to save as much as possible and delay purchases, so it becomes a reasonable choice to "skip" the Prius and save (lots) of money for a Volt in 2010 or 2011.
If GM had not put out as much information about the Volt as they did, with a ton of help from GM-Volt.com, I may not have clearly seen the benefits, or believed in GM's ability to deliver on the promise, of the Volt. So, I really appreciate what I see as GM's openness. Ironically enough I am used to waiting for years to get products I really want. I like to understand the technology roadmap for the next 2-4 years and see where the next "leap" or "sweet spot" is going to develop, and I will wait for years to purchase at that sweet spot. I waited two years to purchase an iPhone because I understood the CPU roadmap for ARM meant that Apple had room to make a huge leap in processing power and RAM size. If GM, hadn't provided the information they have to understand this brave new world of EREV, I would not have been able to commit this early.
I glad you're writing about the PR and hype surrounding the Volt. It is a critically important business function, and while it can be done poorly, I think GM's efforts are being perceived by me and others as a sign of transparency and openness, not empty hype. It seems that you truly doubt GM's corporate sincerity, and that's fine, especially when you write posts that argue the issue in an open minded way, which you do.
Well, at one time, I could have been GM-Volt.com. GM, essentially, invited me to be what I, unfortunately, have to call the Volt's Chief Cheerleader.
I had to take a pass, no offense to Dennis at GM-Volt, whom I know and whom I know to be an honest and sincere advocate of the Volt.
Likewise, you make a persuasive argument about supporting GM, and I hope you are right. History, however, does not support your position. GM's hybrid and electric vehicle program thus far, other than the successful hype, do not support your position.
I think the Volt will, ultimately, be a semi-success for GM. However, I do not believe that the Volt will be the game changer many believe. In fact, after years of following the Volt - most of which was managed by the fine folks at GM (and I sincerely mean that. GM has been great to me, and I feel bad being so harsh, but I have to be honest) - I firmly believe the Volt is not the future.
The other day I read a study that suggests that high gas prices, ironically, aren't as supportive as plug-ins as one would believe. High gas prices, it turns out, pushes Americans to buy cheaper cars.
For years, GM is going to lose a large amount of money on every single Volt sold, NOT including production costs. It will be many years before there is any chance of cost-effective scalability.
Without massive government incentives, there is no chance of the Volt becoming a high production vehicle. Even with today's incentives, the Volt is FAR less cost-effective than today's Prius. Yet, if the gas prices move high enough to support the Volt's technology, people will be looking for the cheapest, smallest, most fuel efficient vehicle they can find.
That doesn't mean GM should stop the Volt program. It just means neither the Volt nor Voltecs are nearly enough to address where the future of the auto industry is heading.
We call today a great change in the auto industry? Nonsense. That sentiment is the biggest joke in the auto industry. Anybody making such a claim is fooling themselves.
Automakers, Congress, etc. are still moving forward as if we have another 30 years to achieve 20 percent PHEV penetration. Either that or they are living in denial because there are no objective studies to validate their opinions or a higher rate of penetration.
Unfortunately, however, I believe that America's foreign oil dependence is completely unsustainable and that we don't have a few decades to address.
I'd bet within the decade, the shit will really start to hit the fan and the Volt will simply be too expensive to address that issue. At that time, we'll see real change in the auto industry.
Until then, this great revolution in the auto industry is just hype. Just ask Bob Lutz.
Indigo Incarnates
It's an imaginary car. It doesn't matter if the estimated fuel economy is 5 MPG or 150 MPG. It's not a real car. They might as well say it's being offered with a warp drive and phaser array.
Geesh, Indigo. I feel bad being as critical as I am.
"warp drive and phaser array". That's some pretty funny stuff.
In a way, however, I agree that GM has sold the Volt as the 'chosen' vehicle. No other technology can compete GM portrays. Along those lines, that hype is about as real as an optional "phaser array" in my opinion.
Dahc,
I still think the technology in the Volt is a game changer, because the drive train is 100% electric.
Electric drive trains need to establish a foothold and prove themselves.
The batteries, and electric charging infrastructure will catch up over time, eventually eliminating the need for the IC charging system.
But without the electric drive train, none of that is possible.
In that aspect, the Volt still has the potential to be a game changer.
Smurf,
I agree that the electric drivetrain and the supply chain to support it are the immediate battle ground and the key value behind the Volt.
I was impressed that Ford is going to follow up so closely behind the Volt by using a Magna electric drivetrain in a Ford Focus. I had no idea Magna had such a developed design. I believe the Magna does not have a generator, so it will be a full electric car. While the range will only by 100 miles in perfect conditions, that drive train will be a real milestone as well.
What will interest me the most will be to compare the reliability and maintenance properties of a simple BEV like the Focus and an EREV like the Volt. Theoretically a BEV can have incredibly low maintenance costs, and I wonder if the Magna/Focus will be able to deliver that. I guess soon we'll have real data from Tesla on the maintenance of the BEV Roadster, but I haven't read anything yet.
The Volt will keep GM in the game, not change the game, in my opinion.
There is research that demonstrates that the only electric drive train technology that really makes financial sense is an EV drive train based on swappable batteries, unless cheap hydrogen can be achieved.
Thus, if a such a battery switching program can be implemented in the next 15 - 20 years, for instance, the Volt will be obsolete technology before it ever recovers its production costs. Even if it takes longer, pure hybrids and plug-in hybrids will make more cost-effective sense based on driving patterns, etc. Ultimately, that's what will drive consumer behavior.
Likewise, people like Elon Musk believe that in 10 years or so, a 350 mile EV with 10 minute charging might be more cost-effective than a Volt.
In the interim, if Nissan is selling 50,000 Leafs per year, GM 50,000 Volts, and Toyota 1,000,000 Prii, 30,000 Plug-in Prii and 20,000 EVs, is the Volt really game changing?
Last I heard GM won't be producing at least 100,000 Volts per year until after 2015. It could be 2020. We don't know. We do know that GM told Congress it wouldn't be before 2015.
I'm not arguing against the Volt. GM needs to build the Volt. I'm just arguing that the Volt will not be a game changer. It's an important development for GM, but I think GM has built in far greater expectations.
However, GM has a reputation of being a marketing company that sells cars. The hype, too often, doesn't match up to the reality. Inevitably, the new GM doesn't need a game changing vehicle, they need to be a game changing company. Unfortunately, I just don't see it with or without the Volt.
Great post.
Once the government incentives stop, GM would pull the plug on the Volt and blame the failure on the government.
The way I see it, GM is getting a free green advertisement with the tax payer money.
I like it. PR efforts, down the drain.
Dennis -
Considering all the money that the government has pumped into GM, can they afford to take the incentives away?
This car is AWESOME! I want one so bad, who wouldn't?! Wish the price tag wasn't so steep though, and I think that 40k is for base. :( Oh well I'll be sure too look out for a used, my Prius is just fine for now! :)
but that's the problem. even at $40,000, GM still isn't covering the costs of the vehicle, and that DOESN'T include production costs.
even with a $7500 tax credit, it's still not cost-effective for consumers compared to the Prius for instance.
the volt is awesome, but just isn't very cost-effective and probably won't be for at least another decade.
i guess that might be fine for GM if there aren't any serious gas spikes in the next decade or so. if there are, how will GM will compete with the Prius, with upcoming Yaris hybrid, etc?
Well at least we're moving forward.
I think the Volt is a pretty sexy looking car. I would certainly consider getting one.
Are we really moving forward?
With the money the government has put on the table to develop battery-powered vehicles, any automaker not doing so would be stupid. It's free money.
I'd just say check out the independent analysis on this issue.
Plug-ins aren't going to end foreign oil dependency for about 40 - 50 years according to almost every study I've seen, unless something like switchable batteries is developed.
How does that affect GM's EV business model? It's probably going to take about 15 to 20 years for the Volt to recover its costs. By then, the Volt could be terribly obsolete technology.
Likewise, vehicles like the Volt have no real future unless the federal tax credit - $7500 per Volt - is not only permanently extended for at least a decade, but made larger or subsidized with other incentives.
Yet, do we really have 40 or 50 years to end foreign oil dependency?
Putting a limited, cost-inefficient Volt on the road is a step, but a baby step. And if we become complacent about this 'success', we're setting ourselves up for a rude awakening.
Unfortunately, I get the feeling that many have felt that once GM, and a few other automakers, put some EVs on the road, everything will fall into place.
Yet, if you ask Bob Lutz about that, he doesn't buy it. The Volt is just a niche vehicle to Lutz that will only appeal to a tiny fraction of society for many, many years.
Doesn't that say it all right there?
dahc,
I'm getting your arguments. The numbers make sense and the overall picture makes sense.
Let me add some numbers. How much affect will those 1M Prii have on gas consumption? How much effect will the 50K Volts have? I'm not saying that the Volt will make a real difference, but I like to gallons of gas as my term.
For the sake of argument, let's use the EPA mpg numbers that came out this week. 100 MPG estimated for the Volt. 230 MPG is legitimate IMO but we'll be conservative to start. 50 MPG for the Prius. Let's say the avg car that would be replaced is 25 mpg. Let's say average yearly mileage is 10K miles. We can even do the Nissan Leaf BEV which will be rated at 360 mpg and the 200 mpg city rating for Volts.
Gallons of Gas Used
500 gallons/yr @ 20 mpg (Truck)
400 gallons/yr @ 25 mpg (Car)
200 gallons/yr @ 50 mpg (Prius)
100 gallons/yr @ 100 mpg (Volt)
50 gallons/yr @ 200 mpg (Volt)
28 gallons/yr @ 360 mpg (Nissan Leaf)
(notice the diminishing returns in gas savings after 100 mpg, and the negligible returns after 200 mpg)
Gallons of Gas Saved:
200M gallons saved by 1M Prii @ 50 mpg (out of 400M)
15M gallons savd by 50K Volts @ 100 mpg. (out of 20M)
17.5M gallons saved by 50K Volts @ 200 mpg (out of 20M)
18.5M gallons saved by 50K Leafs @ 360 mpg (out of 20M)
So, we would need:
666K Volts @ 100 mpg to equal the gas savings of 1M Prii.
572K Volts @ 200 mpg to equal 1M Prii
537K Leafs @ 360 mpg to equal 1M Prii
Anyway that's my first pass at looking at some of the numbers that I think matter like gallons saved.
Those are some very interesting numbers. I had to go to the dentist today so my mind isn't real clear, but those numbers look very intriguing.
I like the way you think.
After the bankruptcy GM had to come out with a game changer.
Perhaps the Volt is a game changer, but it isn't changing the game in any significant way for at least another decade.
Hey Dahc,
I'm with you 100%. The Volt is almost all hype. Sure, assuming it makes it onto the road it'll be gas efficient, but it's an EV. If it -wasn't- efficient I'd be worried.
Fact is, there are better cars. Pretty much anything (excluding the Karma) would be cheaper. The Prius already exists. And the Leaf, due out around the same time as the Volt, is even more efficient (despite having a much worse marketing campaign and looking like something you'd see lying on the bottom of a French canal).
Thought you'd be interested in this video about the announcement, which is a little nicer to Volt and GM than I am, but nevertheless brings up some of the big criticisms as well: http://www.newsy.com/videos/all_charged_up_over_the_volt
Saw that video this morning. I wish it would have included Bob Lutz when he was on Fast Money yesterday.
MediaCurves.com just conducted a study with 300 viewers of a news clip featuring General Motors’ new Chevy Volt. The results showed that 55% of respondents who reported that they were likely to purchase a car in the next year indicated that they would consider the Chevy Volt. For more in-depth results, please visit http://www.mediacurves.com/NationalMediaFocus/J7493-ChevyVolt/Index.cfm.
Thanks,
Ben
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