Lithium or bust: Smart?
A plug-in PriusI was at HybridFest this weekend where I spent a good chunk of time with a hybrid battery repair person (more on that later). Anyway, I brought up the idea of replacing my NiMH battery with a lithium pack in several years, and Ron, the battery man, asked, why?
Before I could reply, he mentioned numerous reasons why lithium would offer very little over a NiMH battery in a conventional hybrid - an argument I've heard before.
Of course, I was thinking plug-in hybrid, and I was also hoping that lithium costs would be much cheaper several years from now. But Ron's points have been ringing in my head since.
Today, automakers, such as Ford, are producing some great hybrids, but Ford's limited investment into NiMH technology means that Ford simply isn't going to produce many hybrid vehicles until lithium is a fully baked and cost-effective technology. In fact, Toyota stands alone as the sole automaker well invested into NiMH and capable of producing 100's of thousands of hybrids every year, if not millions.
However, Honda continues to pick up the pace of its hybrid beat. And Honda's new CEO Takanobu Ito, has made it quite clear that Honda is quickly and significantly increasing Honda's hybrid output. Unlike every other automaker except for Toyota, however, Honda does not seem to be waiting for lithium. Honda, it appears, will increase its investment into NiMH technology while rolling out lithium technology.
All of this makes me wonder? Have US automakers become too complacent regarding battery technology? Too focused on the future, rather than today? What if lithium takes much longer to cost-effectively roll out than expected?
Labels: Hybrid Vehicles, lithium battery
posted by Dahcredyns at
11:59 AM
11 Comments:
My wild guess would be that American hybrids are highly unprofitable. Therefore, could not be mass produced by Ford that is struggling to stay afloat or by GM, freshly bankrupt. I am also afraid that we should not expect anything and futuristic from rust-belt corporations. The only hope is California and else-where startups.
That's what US automakers claimed about small cars in the past. Yet, today, I've heard Ford's CEO claim that Ford can make a profit on these small cars.
In the past US automakers gave up on vehicles with smaller profit margins in favor of focusing on vehicles with larger profit margins.
Today, with gas prices averaging below $2.50, American hybrids probably are unprofitable. However, if gas prices reach $3.50+, I think they do offer the possibility of profitability.
Ultimately, it will take many years for US automakers to retool towards hybrids. Thus, if you expect gas to be $4.00+ within about 5 years or so and and forward, then they will be playing a nasty game of catch up.
Inevitably, the Big 3 lived quarter to quarter. They were not very forward looking companies. I fear they are still not very forward looking. They are only doing as much as needed.
It leaves me wondering if the Big 3 are waiting for someone else to do all of the big investment into a technology so they can ride the wave afterwards. I think it's what they've done with Fuel Cells since the early 80's.
However, while they sit back and wait, the other car companies that are taking those chances are being rewarded with customer conversions and customer loyalty.
They are only doing as much as needed.
I would not blame them for that. That is pretty much the same thing about every business including Toyota. Have you read this?
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/07-07-2009/0005055816&EDATE=
Here is from the article:
Zipcar responded with the San Francisco launch of its first PHEV pilot program. Since the February launch, 75 percent of vehicle miles traveled (VMTs) in this vehicle have been powered by electric charge rather than petroleum-based fuel.
If 75 percent of VMT have been powered by electric charge (at least 50, if you have less powerful NiMH battery), just calculate fuel efficiency: it will be around 120 mpg, while Toyota bullshiting about 60 mpg. They are very future oriented :-)
LB-
You would be giving up a significant amount of space and adding a significant amount of cost for a NiMH powered plug-in hybrid with higher mileage capabilities.
Regardless, the facts on this are quite clear, in my opinion. Hybrids, whether plug-in or not, do not resonate with the average auto consumer, unless there is very little price difference between the two.
At this point in time, plug-in hybrids are not cost-effective. They are less cost-effective than conventional hybrids.
Nonetheless, Toyota is approaching a point where at $3.00 gas, the Prius is both very cost-effective for consumers and profitable.
That is far more than "what is needed".
And, lets be honest, had Toyota not developed the Prius, there probably wouldn't be a hybrid for sale today. Toyota went above and beyond the call of duty, so a little perspective is in order.
Moreover, the future of the automobile is scary, as far as automakers are concerned. If you believe Cal-Berkeley, the only way forward for EVs is with switchable batteries - that will hurt automakers.
Ultimately, the future of the automobile is much thinner profit margins, and established automakers better get used to it as soon as possible.
Steve-
That's an interesting point. US automakers might be able to hold out, if gas prices rise in an orderly fashion. Still, it's a gamble.
Nonetheless, aside from battery technology, Toyota is perfecting and mass-producing many of the components necessary for battery cars, whether hybrid, plug-in hybrid or full EV.
Dahc, you might be biased. Why 10 years ago "good enough" was not good enough and now it is? Recall that 10 years ago oil was dirt cheap and nobody believed in oil peak. Now, obviously many experts believe in it and high prices are only 2-3 years away.
In what year will another auotmaker, whether using lithium or not, make as many hybrids as Toyota did last year?
Maybe Toyota isn't doing enough, but it's doing far more than any other automaker.
The HSD has always been about evolution. Years ago, the HSD was in both Toyota's first hybrids, and much of it was also in Toyota's fuel cell vehicles.
Toyota created an adaptable platform for developing hybrids and any other battery-powered vehicle and they implemented the program whenever other automaker claimed Toyota was stupid.
Since they've developed their own supply chains for Nickel, even copper, so they could continually ramp up production using the technology of the day. In a few years its conceivable that Toyota will be producing 1 million hybrids per year.
On the other hand, the top US hybrid producer, Ford, will probably only be producing 50,000 hybrids per year until 2012. After that, production might only increase marginally.
Am I really being that biased?
Dahc,
I cannot agree more that Toyota is a hybrid king now. That is why they are complacent about Lithium. Or maybe not and this is just a PR move or, even worse, just a blunder of CEO who is not very knowledgeable.
I honestly don't think lithium is ready for wide scale roll out in terms of cost at the very least.
Also, Toyota has invested a considerable amount of money into NiHM technology, so they need to maximize that investment as much as possible. For a hybrid like the Prius, I don't believe that lithium offers anything right now. Any benefits are easily out-weighed by the extra costs.
And, in terms of plug-ins, every automaker is slowly rolling out their lithium vehicles because the potential for error and problems is still considerable. On top of that, I'm not sure that any battery manufacturer has proven that wide scale production of lithium cells is even close to being cost-effective.
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