Are tax credits for plug-ins counter productive?
A volt of reality?In the next few years, if you're interested in a buying a hybrid car to save gas, to fight foreign oil dependency, or to reduce your CO2 footprint, you won't receive any help from the government, unless you buy a plug-in hybrid. Unfortunately, however, for the next several years, there will be very few plug-in hybrids available for sale even if cost is irrelevant.
Even more alarming, plug-in hybrids might not ever make financial sense to either consumers or automakers. In fact, according to a new plug-in vehicle study, almost every plug-in vehicle - both electric and hybrid - is taking the wrong path to mass adoption, and economies of scale. Only switchable batteries, this study finds, offer a path to cost-effective plug-in vehicles.
Labels: hybrid tax credits, Hybrid Vehicles
posted by Dahcredyns at
8:21 AM
7 Comments:
Full Story
In the next few years, if you're interested in a buying a hybrid car to save gas, to fight foreign oil dependency, or to reduce your CO2 footprint, you won't receive any help from the government, unless you buy a plug-in hybrid. Unfortunately, however, for the next several years, there will be very few plug-in hybrids available for sale even if cost is irrelevant.
Even more alarming, plug-in hybrids might not ever make financial sense to either consumers or automakers. In fact, according to a new plug-in vehicle study, almost every plug-in vehicle - both electric and hybrid - is taking the wrong path to mass adoption, and economies of scale. Only switchable batteries, this study finds, offer a path to cost-effective plug-in vehicles.
Certainly, any plug-in development helps develop the battery industry, which is incredibly essential. That alone might justify tax credits for plug-in vehicles, even if they are the wrong kind of vehicles.
Nonetheless, the research is clear. Americans will not pay very much extra for conventional hybrid cars or any other type of plug-in vehicle. Yet, even with the government's plug-in tax credit, many - perhaps all - plug-in vehicles still won't make financial sense.
Conventional hybrids, on the other hand, could be made cost-competitive for most Americans today with tax credits. Imagine the competition that could be created today if the Toyota Prius still qualified for a tax credit. Imagine how many Fusion hybrids Ford could sell if the cost of a Fusion hybrid equaled a conventional Fusion after a tax credit.
And, if plug-in hybrids actually do make financial sense in the future, the after-market for plug-in conversions for old hybrids could extend the life, value and fuel efficiency of these future clunkers. Thus, instead of cash for clunkers, the government could offer cash for plug-in conversions.
Ultimately, I'm not arguing against tax credits for plug-ins. Still, isn't it the battery, not the plug, that is most important at this early stage of the game? Thus, shouldn't the goal be as many batteries in as many cars as possible as quickly as possible?
The U.S. is opposite the rest of the world on how to deal with this issue.
We have low gas taxes and virtually no incentives for hybrids.
Is it any wonder why hybrids represent such a low percentage of the vehicles being purchased in the U.S.?
Case in point - Japan. Hybrids are now dominating Japanese sales.
I'm going to read up on the Berkeley CET papers. Their website shows a few reports they've put out.
You know Berkeley being in CA and CA having such a strong interest in elecrification of the car, I wonder how long before CA signs up with Project Better Place and demands that 10% of cars sold in CA be battery driven. I'm thinking by 2011 if Congress disappoints on CO2 regulation. We'll have a Dem governor again and the EPA will likely grant us the necessary waivers.
Well Better place has already developed some pretty good relationships in NoCal.
As you know, I've been very fond of BP's business model, largely for its out-of-the-box thinking. Nonetheless, I wasn't sure their business model made sense, but this study certainly seems to show that Better Place might be ahead of the curve.
i have a 2002 prius
is there any hope for a plug in
my battery is leaking
all leads welcome
jkc
the plug-in conversion kits from hymotion/a123 for the Prius don't apply to your model.
calcars.org has some interesting links on conversions, you might check there. still, you'll have to be a bit handy because you'll probably have to do some of the work.
also, there are a number of hybrid garages that have opened recently. they might also be able to help.
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